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Discounting, Equity, Uncertainty
• The problem
• The solution
– What will it cost?
– What to do?
Optimal emission reduction
• Climate change is long-term, global,
uncertain problem
• If you do not care about the distant
future, far-away lands, remote
probabilities, you do not care about climate
change
-20
-15
-10
-5
0
5
10
100 1,000 10,000 100,000
Welfare-equivalentincomechange(inpercent)
Income (in 2005 dollar per person per year)
Differences in Values
• Impacts of climate change differ greatly
between countries
• Initially, people just added the monetised
climate change impacts
• This caused a furore, as health risks were
valued differently depending on income
• However, the value of a statistical life is
an empirical quantity, and cannot be
changed
• Instead, one can use different weights for
different countries
Equity Weights
• Fankhauser et al:
• This could imply equal values
• That is, national impacts are valued at
world average values

 
   
    
  
 ;
1 1
c c
C C
U c Y W
c cW
c c cM
W U Y
D D D
W Y
   
      0 0
1 1 1 1
C C C C
cW W W
c c c c cW
c c c cc c c W
Y Y Y Y
D D V I V I V I
Y Y Y Y
-200
0
200
400
600
800
1000
0.00 0.25 0.50 0.75 1.00 1.25 1.50 1.75 2.00 2.25 2.50 2.75 3.00
Socialcostofcarbon($/tC)
rate of risk aversion
PRTP=1%
PRTP=3%
PRTP=2%
No equity, no uncertainty
-200
0
200
400
600
800
1000
0.00 0.25 0.50 0.75 1.00 1.25 1.50 1.75 2.00 2.25 2.50 2.75 3.00
Socialcostofcarbon($/tC)
rate of risk aversion
PRTP=1%
PRTP=3%
PRTP=2%
-200
0
200
400
600
800
1000
0.00 0.25 0.50 0.75 1.00 1.25 1.50 1.75 2.00 2.25 2.50 2.75 3.00
Socialcostofcarbon($/tC)
rate of risk aversion
PRTP=1%
PRTP=3%
PRTP=2%
No equity, no uncertainty Equity, no uncertainty
-200
0
200
400
600
800
1000
0.00 0.25 0.50 0.75 1.00 1.25 1.50 1.75 2.00 2.25 2.50 2.75 3.00
Socialcostofcarbon($/tC)
rate of risk aversion
PRTP=1%
PRTP=3%
PRTP=2%
-200
0
200
400
600
800
1000
0.00 0.25 0.50 0.75 1.00 1.25 1.50 1.75 2.00 2.25 2.50 2.75 3.00
Socialcostofcarbon($/tC)
rate of risk aversion
PRTP=1%
PRTP=3%
PRTP=2%
No equity, no uncertainty
No equity, uncertainty
-200
0
200
400
600
800
1000
0.00 0.25 0.50 0.75 1.00 1.25 1.50 1.75 2.00 2.25 2.50 2.75 3.00
Socialcostofcarbon($/tC)
rate of risk aversion
PRTP=1%
PRTP=3%
PRTP=2%
-200
0
200
400
600
800
1000
0.00 0.25 0.50 0.75 1.00 1.25 1.50 1.75 2.00 2.25 2.50 2.75 3.00
Socialcostofcarbon($/tC)
rate of risk aversion
PRTP=1%
PRTP=3%
PRTP=2%
-200
0
200
400
600
800
1000
0.00 0.25 0.50 0.75 1.00 1.25 1.50 1.75 2.00 2.25 2.50 2.75 3.00
Socialcostofcarbon($/tC)
rate of risk aversion
PRTP=1%
PRTP=3%
PRTP=2%
-200
0
200
400
600
800
1000
0.00 0.25 0.50 0.75 1.00 1.25 1.50 1.75 2.00 2.25 2.50 2.75 3.00
Socialcostofcarbon($/tC)
rate of risk aversion
PRTP=1%
PRTP=3%
PRTP=2%
No equity, no uncertainty Equity, no uncertainty
No equity, uncertainty Equity, uncertainty
What values
• The rates of pure time preference, inequity
aversion, and risk aversion describe how much we
care about the future, others, uncertainties
• Two approaches to such ethical parameters
– Philosophy, religion
• Would what Jesus/Lord Stern/Lady Gaga do?
– Revealed preferences
• What does the average person do?
• Consistency is crucial
– If you don‘t care about Africa in your trade policy,
why do you care about Africa in your environmental
policy?

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Equity and climate policy

  • 1. Discounting, Equity, Uncertainty • The problem • The solution – What will it cost? – What to do?
  • 2. Optimal emission reduction • Climate change is long-term, global, uncertain problem • If you do not care about the distant future, far-away lands, remote probabilities, you do not care about climate change
  • 3. -20 -15 -10 -5 0 5 10 100 1,000 10,000 100,000 Welfare-equivalentincomechange(inpercent) Income (in 2005 dollar per person per year)
  • 4. Differences in Values • Impacts of climate change differ greatly between countries • Initially, people just added the monetised climate change impacts • This caused a furore, as health risks were valued differently depending on income • However, the value of a statistical life is an empirical quantity, and cannot be changed • Instead, one can use different weights for different countries
  • 5. Equity Weights • Fankhauser et al: • This could imply equal values • That is, national impacts are valued at world average values                 ; 1 1 c c C C U c Y W c cW c c cM W U Y D D D W Y           0 0 1 1 1 1 C C C C cW W W c c c c cW c c c cc c c W Y Y Y Y D D V I V I V I Y Y Y Y
  • 6. -200 0 200 400 600 800 1000 0.00 0.25 0.50 0.75 1.00 1.25 1.50 1.75 2.00 2.25 2.50 2.75 3.00 Socialcostofcarbon($/tC) rate of risk aversion PRTP=1% PRTP=3% PRTP=2% No equity, no uncertainty
  • 7. -200 0 200 400 600 800 1000 0.00 0.25 0.50 0.75 1.00 1.25 1.50 1.75 2.00 2.25 2.50 2.75 3.00 Socialcostofcarbon($/tC) rate of risk aversion PRTP=1% PRTP=3% PRTP=2% -200 0 200 400 600 800 1000 0.00 0.25 0.50 0.75 1.00 1.25 1.50 1.75 2.00 2.25 2.50 2.75 3.00 Socialcostofcarbon($/tC) rate of risk aversion PRTP=1% PRTP=3% PRTP=2% No equity, no uncertainty Equity, no uncertainty
  • 8. -200 0 200 400 600 800 1000 0.00 0.25 0.50 0.75 1.00 1.25 1.50 1.75 2.00 2.25 2.50 2.75 3.00 Socialcostofcarbon($/tC) rate of risk aversion PRTP=1% PRTP=3% PRTP=2% -200 0 200 400 600 800 1000 0.00 0.25 0.50 0.75 1.00 1.25 1.50 1.75 2.00 2.25 2.50 2.75 3.00 Socialcostofcarbon($/tC) rate of risk aversion PRTP=1% PRTP=3% PRTP=2% No equity, no uncertainty No equity, uncertainty
  • 9. -200 0 200 400 600 800 1000 0.00 0.25 0.50 0.75 1.00 1.25 1.50 1.75 2.00 2.25 2.50 2.75 3.00 Socialcostofcarbon($/tC) rate of risk aversion PRTP=1% PRTP=3% PRTP=2% -200 0 200 400 600 800 1000 0.00 0.25 0.50 0.75 1.00 1.25 1.50 1.75 2.00 2.25 2.50 2.75 3.00 Socialcostofcarbon($/tC) rate of risk aversion PRTP=1% PRTP=3% PRTP=2% -200 0 200 400 600 800 1000 0.00 0.25 0.50 0.75 1.00 1.25 1.50 1.75 2.00 2.25 2.50 2.75 3.00 Socialcostofcarbon($/tC) rate of risk aversion PRTP=1% PRTP=3% PRTP=2% -200 0 200 400 600 800 1000 0.00 0.25 0.50 0.75 1.00 1.25 1.50 1.75 2.00 2.25 2.50 2.75 3.00 Socialcostofcarbon($/tC) rate of risk aversion PRTP=1% PRTP=3% PRTP=2% No equity, no uncertainty Equity, no uncertainty No equity, uncertainty Equity, uncertainty
  • 10. What values • The rates of pure time preference, inequity aversion, and risk aversion describe how much we care about the future, others, uncertainties • Two approaches to such ethical parameters – Philosophy, religion • Would what Jesus/Lord Stern/Lady Gaga do? – Revealed preferences • What does the average person do? • Consistency is crucial – If you don‘t care about Africa in your trade policy, why do you care about Africa in your environmental policy?