Webinar: Strategic roadmaping - take control in times of uncertainty - 19 April
1. Strategic Roadmapping
take control in times of uncertainty
Dr Rob Phaal & Dr Imoh Ilevbare
Institute for Manufacturing
University of Cambridge
19 April 2016
IfM Education and Consultancy Services Short Webinar Series
2. Who we are
Energy, Fluid
Mechanics &
Turbomachinery
Electrical
Engineering
Mechanics,
Materials & Design
Civil
Engineering
Manufacturing
& Management
Information
Engineering
Institute for
Manufacturing
4. Technology and Innovation Management
Theory and Practice since 1993
• Technology and
innovation
management
processes & systems
• ‘Fast-start’
workshop methods
• Visual methods
• Tools and toolkits
Clive Kerr
5. The nature of strategy
Complex, Ambiguous, Uncertain
Information quality
and situational
awareness
“Predictions are hard,
especially about the
future” - anon
6. Past Short-term Medium-term Long-term Vision
Time
Market
Business
Product
Service
System
Technology
Science
Resources
Functional perspectives
(Roadmap
architecture)
Route(s) forward
Knowledge
types
When?
What?
How?
Push
Pull
Information
types
Drivers
Strategy
Needs
Form
Function
Performance
Solutions
Capabilities
Resources
Why?
Roadmap framework
(Supports integrated and aligned
strategic and innovation planning)
Key questions: 2) Where are
we now?
3) How can we
get there?
1) Where do
we want to go?
Typical
viewpoints
Commercial &
strategic
perspectives
Design,
development
& production
perspectives
Technology &
research
perspectives
Roadmapping framework provides an integrative
information architecture for strategy & innovation
7. General roadmap form
2) Where are
we now?
?
?
?
3) How can we
get there?
? c) How can
we do it?
? b) What should
we do?
? a) Why do we
need to act?
(When?)
?
?
?
1) Where do we
want to go?
Time
8. Roadmapping supports strategic dialogue
An agile / lean ‘fast-start’ approach is efficient and low risk, providing strong
diagnostic functionality… ‘dirty mirror’ – senior Philips manager c. 2008
12. Mitchell et al., 2014
Treatment of uncertainty in portfolio selection
13. Strategy under Uncertainty
?
Courtney et al., 1997
Level 4: True ambiguity
Level 3: A range of futures
Level 2: Alternate futures
Level 1: A clear-enough future
Example tools
Forecasting
Roadmapping
Real options
Roadmapping
Scenarios
Roadmapping
System dynamics
Roadmapping
Example situation
2019?
2018?
Article 50
March 2017
“Brexit means Brexit”
June 2016
14. Scenarios
Scenarios can be very helpful
in providing structure to an
uncertain/ambiguous future
• Can reduce a range of futures
to a set of plausible
alternatives
• Ease decision making in high
uncertainty
Shell style (RSSB, 2009) (also see Shwartz, (1991))
15. Complex/highly uncertain outlook
resulting from a combination of multiple,
difficult-to-predict trends/drivers, e.g.
Automation
Digitalisation
Re-shoring
Skills
New technologies, etc.
Scenarios
Shell style (RSSB, 2009) (also see Shwartz, (1991))
A more structured view of the
future
16. Two sequential toolkit configurations:
1) Scenario-led roadmapping
Scenario A Scenario B
Scenario C Scenario D
Roadmap
A
Roadmap
B
Roadmap
D
Roadmap
C
Synthesised
central roadmap,
pathways and
decisions
18. Key matters in using scenarios within roadmapping
To build-in flexibility and robustness in decision making
(e.g. by applying options thinking)
• Identifying the commonalities
• Identifying the significant differences
• Choosing which of the commonalities and strategic
options / investments to focus on
• Understanding what signals and triggers to look out for
