A group of graduate students visiting Brussels asked me to talk about if EU citizens experience a crisis.. put together recent data from Eurobarometer and Gallup World Poll.. (mental) Health Warning: not a pretty picture...

1. Euro(pe): crisis without end?
Some background – from recent surveys
Robert Manchin
Gallup Europe

2. The Memory of European Citizens: Eurobarometer
EU support in the bloc already at historic low when measurement interrupted
DK, IE, UK EAST GERMANY
GREECE BIG BANG
ES, PT BG, RO
AT, FI, SE
1973 1981 1986 1990 1995 2004 2007
90
EU membership
80
„good thing‟, % 71%
64%*
70 MAASTRICHT
60
58%
50 56%
50%
SCHENGEN 46% FINANCIAL CRISIS
40 47%
30
20
pre 73*
74 S
74 A
75 S
75 A
76 S
76 A
77 S
77 A
78 S
78 A
79 S
79 A
80 S
80 A
81 S
81 A
82 S
82 A
83 S
83 A
84 S
84 A
85 S
85 A
86 S
86 A
87 S
87 A
88 S
88 A
89 S
89 A
90 S
90 A
91 S
91 A
92 S
92 A
93 S
93 A
94 S
94 A
95 S
95 A
96 S
96 A
97 S
97 A
98 S
98 A
99 S
99 A
00 S
00 A
01 S
01 A
02 S
02 A
03 S
03 A
04 S
04 A
05 S
05 A
06 S
06 A
07 S
07 A
08 S
08 A
09 S
09 A
10 S
10 A
11 S
(other indicators suggest further, potentially sharp, drops in
EUROPE 2
the EU support)

3. THE LAST MEASUREMENT OF EU SUPPORT

4. EU leadership approval,
NUTS2 regions 2011 (note Spain
and Italy justWorld Poll ago..)
Source: Gallup
2 years
4

5. agree very much that Europeans
have common values, 15% don‟t Eurobarometer, 2012 Spring
5
know

6. Global approval ratings, EU vs. U.S.
% who approved the leadership of the …, as % of those who had any
opinion
75
EU, 66 65 66
65 65 65
60 60
60 60
59
55
54
45
43
USA, 41
40
35
25
Gallup World Poll, national adults in 100+ countries each year, 153 countries overall
15
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

7. EUROPE as role model for governance globally?
EU vs. USA approval ratings in global regions, 2012
% who approve the leadership of…, in % of those who had any opinion
90
EU USA 79
80 72
71 70
70 64 62 64 67 64
58 59 58 57 60
60 53 55 51 54
49 51
50 46
40 37
32
29
30
20
10
0
Source: Gallup World Poll

8. Core values the EU
stands for
(perceived)
49% satisfied with the
democracy in the EU
8

9. Ever closer Union – based on common values
think that in values, EU states are
very close to each other (fairly
close: 39%, fairly distant: 34%, very
distant: 8%)
Eurobarometer, 2012 Spring 9

10. HOW SIMILAR
ARE GOALS AND EXPECTATIONS
EUROPE 10

11. COUNTRY CLUSTERS ACCORDING TO DESIRED EU PRIORITIES
CZECH REP MULTI-DIMENSIONAL SCALING / HIERARCHICAL
ESTONIA CLUSTER OF DISTANCES BASED ON RESPONSE
SIMILARITY
LATVIA
HUNGARY
SLOVENIA
SLOVAKIA
DENMARK
SWEDEN
LITHUANIA
ROMANIA
BULGARIA
BELGIUM
FRANCE
UK
LUXEMBOURG
POLAND
ITALY
MALTA
AUSTRIA
FINLAND
NETHERLANDS
GERMANY
GREECE
CYPRUS
SPAIN
IRELAND
PORTUGAL
EUROPE

12. Whose interests are taken into account on EU level?
The interests of (OUR COUNTRY) are well taken into account in the EU
80
70
60
totally agree
50
40
30
20
10 16
12
7 6 7 5 6 8 5 4 3 6 3 3 4 5 6 4 4 3 6 2 5 2 3 2 2
0
Lithuania
Germany
Estonia
Slovenia
Spain
Italy
Netherlands
Austria
Hungary
Finland
Bulgaria
Romania
Belgium
Ireland
Portugal
Greece
Sweden
Cyprus
France
Malta
Poland
Slovakia
Latvia
UK
Luxembourg
Denmark
Czech Republic
Eurobarometer
12

13. Whose interests are taken into account on EU level?
The interests of (OUR COUNTRY) are well taken into account in the EU
80
70
70 totally + tend to agree
61 59
60 57 57
53 51 totally agree
49
50 44 44 44 43 43 42 40 39
40 37
35
32 31 31 31 30 29
30 27 27
20 15
10 16
12
7 6 7 5 6 8 5 4 3 6 3 3 4 5 6 4 4 3 6 2 5 2 3 2 2
0
Lithuania
Germany
Estonia
Slovenia
Spain
Italy
Netherlands
Austria
Hungary
Finland
Bulgaria
Romania
Belgium
Ireland
Portugal
Greece
Sweden
Cyprus
France
Malta
Poland
Slovakia
Latvia
UK
Luxembourg
Denmark
Czech Republic
Eurobarometer
13

14. Struggle paying month-end bills
(from time to time, weighted EU total)
Eurobarometer, 2012 Spring
14

15. Struggling to make ends meet – differential impact of crisis
“During the last twelve months, would you say you had difficulties to pay your bills at
the end of the month...?” – most of the time
50
43
45 2009
40 2010
35
35
2012
30 28
23 24
25 22 22
20 20
20 18
14 15 15 14
15 12 11
9 10
10 7
6 5 6 6
4 5
5 2 2
0
Germany
Italy
Hungary
UK
Greece
Romania
France
Luxembourg
Slovakia
Ireland
Malta
Poland
Spain
Austria
Finland
Bulgaria
Denmark
Portugal
Estonia
Lithuania
Latvia
Netherlands
Sweden
Cyprus
Slovenia
Belgium
Czech Republic
Eurobarometer
15

16. believe that the Member States
should work more closely
together, to counter the crisis
Eurobarometer, 2012 Spring

17. the EU will become stronger “on
the long run”, once the crisis is
over % totally agree, Eurobarometer, 2012
Spring

18. Optimism vs. pessimism about the future of the EU
“Would you say that you are very optimistic, fairly optimistic, fairly pessimistic or very
pessimistic about the future of the EU?” – difference between very+fairly
optimistic and very+fairly pessimistic opinions
OPTIMISTIC COUNTRIES PESSIMISTIC COUNTRIES
60
50
40 46
41 38
30 37
20 29 26 26
22 22 20 19
10 17 16 11 11 8 5 3
0
-10 -4 -9 -10 -11
-17 -18
-20
-31 -33 -34
-30
-40
Slovenia
Italy
Malta
Latvia
Czech Rep.
Hungary
Belgium
Slovakia
Estonia
France
UK
Spain
Poland
Germany
Ireland
Finland
Cyprus
Austria
Denmark
Romania
Lithuania
Portugal
Bulgaria
Netherlands
Sweden
Greece
Luxembourg
Eurobarometer, 2012 Spring
18

19. Self-evaluated standing
between the worst and best
possible life in regions of
Europe
Source: Gallup World
Poll, 2011-2012
19

20. Hope: % of those who expect
a better life in 5 years time
Source: Gallup World Poll
20

21. Current state
and expected
development of the
economical situation of
the „region”
Source: Flash Eurobarometer, 356 on
Public opinion in EU regions
NUTS1 / NUTS2 regions, 11 (12) MS
presented as a single country
21