1. Tipping Points and Indicators:
Engaging Great Lakes Communities to
Develop Tipping Point Action Plans
__________________________________________
Kara Salazar, Sustainable Communities Extension Specialist
Purdue University, Department of Forestry and Natural Resources
Illinois‐Indiana Sea Grant
Miller , B. K., University of Illinois Urbana‐Champaign, Illinois‐Indiana Sea Grant
Doucette, J. S., Purdue University, Department of Forestry and Natural Resources
Pijanowski, B. C., Purdue University, Department of Forestry & Natural Resources
Rutherford, E., NOAA‐Great Lakes Environmental Research Laboratory
Schomberg, J., University of Minnesota, Duluth, Minnesota Sea Grant
Jaffe, M., University of Illinois @ Chicago, Department of Urban Planning & Policy, IISG
TePas , K. S., University of Illinois Urbana‐Champaign, Illinois‐Indiana Sea Grant

2. Decision Support: Land Use Impacts on
Natural Resources
(www.tippingpointplanner.org)

3. Research Project Team
• Great Lakes Environmental Research Laboratory –
Rutherford*, Mason
• University of Illinois (IISG) – Miller*
• Purdue University – Pijanowski*, Doucette, Pekin, Salazar,
Jung, Frederick, Robinson, Kim, Ghadiri
• University of Michigan – Wiley, Riseng
• Michigan State University – Stevenson, Hyndman, Rose,
Kendal, Martin
• University of Minnesota ‐ Duluth – Johnson
• University of Windsor – Ciborowski
• University of Illinois ‐ Chicago – Jaffe *Principal Investigator

4. Outreach Project Team
• Great Lakes Sea Grant Network Specialists
– Illinois‐Indiana (Salazar, Jaffe, Doucette, TePas)
– Michigan (Breederland)
– Minnesota (Schomberg)
– New York (Penney)
– Ohio (Lucente)
– Pennsylvania (Rafferty)
– Wisconsin (Hart, Noordyk)

5. Acknowledgements for Funding Directly for Tipping Points Research

6. Tipping Points
• Tipping points help to define zone that we
should not cross
• Forecast models help to determine
direction of community and where they
might be relative to a tipping point

7. Tipping Points
• Science team identified land use
indicator variables that determine
the threshold, or tipping points,
that when exceeded impact
ecosystems
• Indicators ‐ land use, urban
intensity, etc.
• Response variables – aquatic
diversity, nearshore zone health,
coastal ecosystem health,
wetlands, beach health (e coli),
fish community structure

8. Defining User Needs
• User needs assessment for professional planners and Extension Specialists
(Kim Robinson, PhD)
– Survey (302 respondents, all 8 GL states, Multiple scales: Municipal,
County/Township, Regional)
• Summary of desired elements users want in a DSS
1. Visioning tools
2. Current conditions of land use and water resources
3. Identify and delineate key natural lands
4. User identified “what if” models for future land use scenarios
5. Impact of land use change on terrestrial and aquatic species
6. Impact of land use change on human health and recreation

9. Program Design
• Great Lakes‐wide Extension
program and companion web‐
based decision support system
(DSS)
– Supports facilitated community
visioning discussions and action
plan development
• Facilitation led by Sea Grant Specialists, Extension Professionals,
Partnering Consultants and Agency Staff
• Process incorporates weTables or touch screen monitors to support
participatory decision making
• Primary audiences
• Watershed Planning and Land Use Planning
Photo: Texas Sea Grant College Program

10. Program Design
Users can log in
and save their
work as projects,
which is necessary
when you are
working with a
community for a
few days
A set of
instructional
videos are
available outlining
each of the main
steps with project
management tips

11. Program Design
Presentations by each
member of the research
team puts to science in
terms easy to understand
and relevant for decision
making (some are
augmented with
outreach specialist
comments)

12. http://tippingpointplanner.org
1. Visioning
Project Description
Community Characteristics
2. Community Overview
Past Land Use Change
Future Land Use Change
Natural Resource Assets
Areas of Environmental
Concern
3. Tipping Points
Stream Invertebrate Health
Nutrient Sources (MI only)
Coastal Wetland Health
4. Land Use Planning Tools
Prime Farmland Locations
Open Space Locations
Runoff and Water Quality
5. Action Strategies
6. Action Plan

13. Module 1 ‐ Visioning
Links natural resources management actions to community values

15. I can walk, bike, or take public transit
Comprehensive plans provide an
opportunity for stakeholders to discuss
the non‐automotive transportation
options valued by the community and
determine what needs to happen to
make those available.

16. I can walk, bike, or take public transit
26%
6%
23%
14%
10%
21%
0 1 2 3 4 5
Least 0 ‐ 1 ‐ 2 ‐ 3 ‐ 4 ‐ 5 Most
Important Important
Mean = 2.4143

17. Community Characteristics
Summary/Results
Characteristic Value/Rank
My community has clean air and water 3.375
The natural beauty around me is protected 3.1268
My house will significantly appreciate in value 3.0694
I can walk, bike, or take public transit 2.4143
I am safe from flooding 2.1831
There is common open space or park near house 1.9275
Outdoor recreation areas are easily accessible 1.7778
I can have a large yard 0.7536
I can live a rural lifestyle 0.7536
I can always find a parking spot quickly 0.6429

18. Module 2 – Community Overview
Helps communities identify assets and determine threats to sustainability
Past Land Use –
Land Cover
Statistics

19. Module 2 – Community Overview Steps
Future Land Use –
Growth Projections

20. Module 2 – Community Overview Steps
Natural
Resources
Assets – Open
Space, Water
Quality, Prime
Farmland

21. Module 2 – Community Overview Steps
Existing
Environmental
Concerns –
Impervious
Surfaces, NPDES
Sites, Impaired
Lakes and
Streams

22. Module 3 – Tipping Points
Identifies goals and actions of highest priority with tipping points models
Stream Health –
Land Use and
Invertebrate Health
ATTRIBUTION
University of
Michigan
Mike Wiley and
Catherine Riseng

23. Module 3 – Tipping Points Steps
Nutrient Loads and
Sources –
Phosphorus
Loading / Great
Lakes Coastal
Wetlands Map
ATTRIBUTION
Michigan State
University
Jan Stevenson

24. Module 3 – Tipping Points Steps
Coastal Wetland
Health –
Developed and
Agriculture Lands
ATTRIBUTION
Lucinda Johnson

25. Module 4 – Land Use Planning Tools
Identifies goals and actions of highest priority with data and mapping tools
Paints Tools –
Interactively
change land uses
and visualize how
changes affect
runoff

26. Module 4 – Land Use Planning Tools Steps
Prioritize Prime
Farmland and
Open Space

27. Module 5 – Action Strategies and Plans
Provides a framework for discussing and selecting ordinances, BMPs,
and action strategies consistent with community values

28. Decision Support: Action Strategy Selection Tools
Provides strengths, weaknesses
and examples of strategies under
consideration

29. Module 6 – Action Plan Document
Customized PDF documents containing maps,
practices and strategies developed throughout the process into a single document

30. Timeline
• Beta Version – October 2013
• Train the trainer (Sea Grant Specialists)
– October 2013
• Training and community programs in Great Lakes states – May –
June 2014
• Final changes based on state programs – Summer 2014
• Program development, training, and project expansion –
Summer 2014 and Ongoing

31. State Pilots and Trainings
Train the Trainer Programs Watershed Programs
• New York
• Michigan
• Ohio
• IL (CMAP)
• MN ‐ Knife River
Watershed Group
• WI ‐ Bay Lake Regional
Planning Commission
• IN
• Fawn River
Watershed Group
• City of Hobart –
Comprehensive Plan
Update

32. Contact
www.tippingpointplanner.org
Technical Contact
__________________
Jarrod Doucette
jdoucett@purdue.edu
(765) 494‐3573
IN Program Contact
__________________
Kara Salazar
salazark@purdue.edu
(765) 496‐1070