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COP 15: Bullshitting  15 years  on Climate Change ... Climate Change: positive solutions series - CE01 By Sandip Sen & Katerina Voutsara
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Your Governments  form the IPCC COP 1 BERLIN 1995 Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change IPCC formed to publish reports and suggest solutions to UNFCCC and member nations on Climate change and Greenhouse Gasses. The first Conference of the Parties COP was marked by uncertainty as to which means the individual countries possessed to combat greenhouse gas emissions. This resulted in “The Berlin Mandate”, which set a two-year analysis and evaluation phase.
Then they decide to discuss IPCC proposals  at expensive conferences around the world where thousands of people gather at the annual COP jamborees to think and re-think CLI MATE CHANGE CONFERENCES    COP : CONFERENCE OF PARTIES   UN Framework Convention  under climate   change   UNFCC.
The IPCC includes both her earning parents & the earning fiancé all of whom smoke. They agree to find unique independent solutions  for each member that divert resources from harms way to do good for  Imelda’s pregnancy & cherubic child (kill 2 birds with 1 stone)   COP2 Geneva 1996 The second Conference of the Parties endorsed the results of the IPCC’s second assessment report, which came out in 1995. At this conference it was established that member countries would not pursue uniform solutions & each one would go their own way.
Together the family decides after discussions  that they must all reduce smoking  in proportion to their current consumption.   ,[object Object],[object Object]
They also conclude, that whatever they all save will go to the family kitty COP4  Buenos Aires 1998 At this conference it became clear that there were several outstanding questions regarding the Kyoto Protocol. A two-year period was therefore scheduled to clarify and develop tools for implementing the Kyoto Protocol
The savings from the family kitty  will go  to a nourishment fund  for Imelda’s cherubic child which is after all the main IPCC Objective. COP5 Bonn 1999 This conference was dominated by technical discussions concerning mechanisms under the Kyoto Protocol
During the first review month  Imelda’s mother raises an objection. She says that though she smokes the most, it is the parents who must bear the maximum cut-back  as they must bear the greater responsibility for the child. COP6 The Hague 2000 U.S. and EU nations lock horns over American insistence to term farmlands as carbon sinks. Negotiations  break down
So  they negotiate to work out  a plan,  on who  will cut down how many cigarettes  a day. COP7 Marrakesh 2001 Here negotiations concerning the Kyoto Protocol were (almost) completed. The results were gathered in the documents called the Marrakesh Accords
During the second review month Imelda’s fiancé declares he can not  adhere to the cut-back because of increased workload pressure due to the economic  downturn  COP8 Delhi 2002 At this conference the EU countries (under the Danish chairmanship) tried unsuccessfully to get a declaration passed which called for more action from the parties under the UNFCCC
Imelda’s father who is an accountant with the Treasury draws out a cap and feed plan for Imelda’s cherubic child. COP9 Milan 2003 The focus of this conference was to clear up some of the last technical details concerning the Kyoto Protocol
Under this plan two thirds of the savings under the nicotine cut back plan, would go directly to the fund to feed Imelda so that the Cherubic child can arrive.  One third will be the baby feed given after birth, but only after ascertaining substantial progress in the capping of nicotine . COP10 Buenos Aires 2004 At this meeting the countries gradually began to open discussions as to what would happen when the Kyoto Protocol expired in 2012 .
They now agree to meet even twice a  month to review the progress of nicotine cut back COP11/CMP1 Montreal 2005 This conference was the first one to take place after the Kyoto Protocol had come into force. Accordingly the annual meeting between the parties to the UNFCCC (COP) was supplemented by the annual conference between the parties to the Kyoto Protocol (CMP or COP/MOP )
They keep a 9 month time frame  to reduce their consumption of cigarettes to 5 per day COP12/CMP2 Nairobi 2006 Here the last remaining technical questions regarding the Kyoto Protocol were finally answered.
During the third review month Imelda’s father says that it was not fair that all other’s have to  cut back smoking by 5 cigarettes each, when Imelda had cut only cut 3 cigarettes as per the proportional reduction plan. So he asks for a re-negotiation of the deal in which the maximum responsibility is taken by the child-bearing mother COP13/CMP3 Bali 2007 At this meeting the work involved in reaching a new agreement to replace the Kyoto Protocol took a decisive step forward. The new protocol should address all issues that the Kyoto deal left out, and make all responsible
In the fourth month Imelda visits her Doctor again. COP14/CMP4 Poznan 2008   At this conference the work towards a new global climate agreement in Copenhagen continued
The gynaecologist is shocked to find Imelda still underweight .  ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
The Doctor blew his top.  This is what he said  ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
COP 15:  Bury wasteful thinking? If COP 15 wants to  achieve anything it must look beyond Cap and Trade. Negative penalties can never fund positive growth effectively.  So Climate Change must have a new Profit Plan for funding the clean energy projects, irrespective of Carbon Permits. The Governments must work out these plans with the help of WB and IMF now. Why?
“ Cherubic Child needs positive solutions not cap and feed” Why ?
Problem :   Critical grass root development  of clean energy delayed by 15 years: to be funded by negative penalties?  Solution : Climate change  needs  Positive profit plans  not  carbon trading
Problem: Governments fooling the people for 15 years  Solution:  Governments must apologize publicly for using the U.N. the scientists, the administrators and the consultants to delay clean energy investments for 15 years in the name of  “cap and trade” and endanger planet earth. For unless you develop economically viable  alternatives, how can you expect the people to co-operate  with energy savings.
Positive solutions for  climate change SOLAR  POWER  WIND ENERGY RAIN FOREST PLANTATION.  Don’t waste resource on other alternatives that have no scalability  Governments must take direct responsibility for funding them if needed, through the WB or the IMF Solutions like cap and trade will only increase clean energy costs and delay their implementation  15 years have been wasted now in endless dialogues and wrangling on carbon cap  It’s time to move on.  WHY?
Let us see what Carbon Trade  gives to the world today and its future as a utility resource generator.
Cap and Trade savings are like the nicotine savings A few Carbon Trading initiatives have started or are being planned in the U.S. Australia and Europe. Among the first movers were (10) ten American North Eastern and mid Atlantic States that join hands to float a Regional Greenhouse Gas Initiative RGGI the first effort to monetise Cap and Trade program in the U.S. after 5 years of planning,  in July 2008. The New York Mercantile Ex-change, a subsidiary of Nymex Holdings Inc. of New York, and the Chicago Climate Exchange, owned by Climate Exchange PLC of London, both launches RGGI carbon futures contracts in August 2008
RGGI first Carbon auction RGGI Sells 12.5 million carbon credits @ price of $ 3.07 per unit raising  $38.6 million in its first auction, the money raised from carbon polluters, mostly the fossil fuel power plants and industries  in  Sept 2008
RGGI second Carbon auction RGGI Sells 31.6 million carbon credits @price of $3.38 per unit raising $107 million in auction money from carbon polluter and  financial traders  in the second auction  of December 2008
RGGI third Carbon auction RGGI Sells 33.3  million carbon credits @price of $3.51 each raising  $117 million from the 3 rd  carbon auction money  in March 2009
RGGI  fourth Carbon auction RGGI Sells  30.8 million carbon credits @price of $ 3.23 raising $104 million in auction money from carbon polluters and financial traders in the fourth auction of July 2009
RGGI annual proceeds from  Carbon auction Total annual sale Carbon credits for ten American states selling 110 million carbon permits as of today is  $366 million. Unlikely to go up much for the  region, as large polluting units are no longer being installed .
Clean energy demand is much higher than Carbon receipts Is it enough to fund green energy needs of the 10 states, when the cost of putting up a 250 MW Photovoltaic Cell solar rooftop power panel project is $875 million as per South California Edison (SCE) Power
Carbon price will remain moderate, else utilities & factories will close down Can the price of Carbon Credits ever cross the $ 20 / tonne  mark  ( the minimum price required for sizable inflows to green energy markets)  Financial traders  have already entered the fray  ensuring that Carbon credits prices fall in the fourth quarter auctions.
Clean energy needs $ 200 billion annually Clean energy positive plan needs a global investment of $200 bn a year  for the next 10 years to make a dent on environmental pollution and GHG. Cap & Trade can never fund such needs.
The agitated Doctor finally screamed!.. ,[object Object]
and then exasperated, he added wryly….. “ I understand from your mother who is my old client that she has huge holdings of J.P. Morgan and that she is bullish on Goldman Sachs.  Tell her that Imelda is  pregnant and her cherubic child will happen only if she  re-deploys investment.” .
Others presentations to follow in the climate change positive plan “clean energy” series CE  21…… onwards  “Solutions in solar energy” CE 41……. onwards  “Solutions in rainforest plantation” CE 61…….onwards  “Solutions in wind energy” CE 81…….onwards  “The perils of carbon trade” CE91…….  onwards  “ Cost reductions, volume growth and positive solutions for clean energy and climate change initiatives to make it a profit plan.”  To be uploaded  at slide share shortly from the last week of August 09.
Acknowledgements Data from UNFCCC, IPCC, RGGI, Google search, Bloomberg and other internet resources.  To our Art director  Mrs. Katerina Voutsara. To Google and other websites for images For Queries :  Sandip Sen  [email_address]
Our references Economy to Ecology Our goal is to help promote clean, safe and better practices in economy and ecology worldwide. Balanced, efficient and a little more sustainable. Amazon Kindle Blog : Ecothrust http://tinyurl.com/kpujfx
Other presentations by user Business Risk management Series http://www.slideshare.net/SandipSen/living-dangerously-managing-risks-in-business-ba01ppt Business Risk Case Studies Ba31 http://www.slideshare.net/SandipSen/business-risk-case-study-ba31 Business Risk Case Studies Ba32 http://www.slideshare.net/SandipSen/business-risk-case-study-ba-32-1751378

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COP15,Bullshitting 15 Years On Climate Change

  • 1. COP 15: Bullshitting 15 years on Climate Change ... Climate Change: positive solutions series - CE01 By Sandip Sen & Katerina Voutsara
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  • 10. Your Governments form the IPCC COP 1 BERLIN 1995 Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change IPCC formed to publish reports and suggest solutions to UNFCCC and member nations on Climate change and Greenhouse Gasses. The first Conference of the Parties COP was marked by uncertainty as to which means the individual countries possessed to combat greenhouse gas emissions. This resulted in “The Berlin Mandate”, which set a two-year analysis and evaluation phase.
  • 11. Then they decide to discuss IPCC proposals at expensive conferences around the world where thousands of people gather at the annual COP jamborees to think and re-think CLI MATE CHANGE CONFERENCES COP : CONFERENCE OF PARTIES UN Framework Convention under climate change UNFCC.
  • 12. The IPCC includes both her earning parents & the earning fiancé all of whom smoke. They agree to find unique independent solutions for each member that divert resources from harms way to do good for Imelda’s pregnancy & cherubic child (kill 2 birds with 1 stone) COP2 Geneva 1996 The second Conference of the Parties endorsed the results of the IPCC’s second assessment report, which came out in 1995. At this conference it was established that member countries would not pursue uniform solutions & each one would go their own way.
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  • 14. They also conclude, that whatever they all save will go to the family kitty COP4 Buenos Aires 1998 At this conference it became clear that there were several outstanding questions regarding the Kyoto Protocol. A two-year period was therefore scheduled to clarify and develop tools for implementing the Kyoto Protocol
  • 15. The savings from the family kitty will go to a nourishment fund for Imelda’s cherubic child which is after all the main IPCC Objective. COP5 Bonn 1999 This conference was dominated by technical discussions concerning mechanisms under the Kyoto Protocol
  • 16. During the first review month Imelda’s mother raises an objection. She says that though she smokes the most, it is the parents who must bear the maximum cut-back as they must bear the greater responsibility for the child. COP6 The Hague 2000 U.S. and EU nations lock horns over American insistence to term farmlands as carbon sinks. Negotiations break down
  • 17. So they negotiate to work out a plan, on who will cut down how many cigarettes a day. COP7 Marrakesh 2001 Here negotiations concerning the Kyoto Protocol were (almost) completed. The results were gathered in the documents called the Marrakesh Accords
  • 18. During the second review month Imelda’s fiancé declares he can not adhere to the cut-back because of increased workload pressure due to the economic downturn COP8 Delhi 2002 At this conference the EU countries (under the Danish chairmanship) tried unsuccessfully to get a declaration passed which called for more action from the parties under the UNFCCC
  • 19. Imelda’s father who is an accountant with the Treasury draws out a cap and feed plan for Imelda’s cherubic child. COP9 Milan 2003 The focus of this conference was to clear up some of the last technical details concerning the Kyoto Protocol
  • 20. Under this plan two thirds of the savings under the nicotine cut back plan, would go directly to the fund to feed Imelda so that the Cherubic child can arrive. One third will be the baby feed given after birth, but only after ascertaining substantial progress in the capping of nicotine . COP10 Buenos Aires 2004 At this meeting the countries gradually began to open discussions as to what would happen when the Kyoto Protocol expired in 2012 .
  • 21. They now agree to meet even twice a month to review the progress of nicotine cut back COP11/CMP1 Montreal 2005 This conference was the first one to take place after the Kyoto Protocol had come into force. Accordingly the annual meeting between the parties to the UNFCCC (COP) was supplemented by the annual conference between the parties to the Kyoto Protocol (CMP or COP/MOP )
  • 22. They keep a 9 month time frame to reduce their consumption of cigarettes to 5 per day COP12/CMP2 Nairobi 2006 Here the last remaining technical questions regarding the Kyoto Protocol were finally answered.
  • 23. During the third review month Imelda’s father says that it was not fair that all other’s have to cut back smoking by 5 cigarettes each, when Imelda had cut only cut 3 cigarettes as per the proportional reduction plan. So he asks for a re-negotiation of the deal in which the maximum responsibility is taken by the child-bearing mother COP13/CMP3 Bali 2007 At this meeting the work involved in reaching a new agreement to replace the Kyoto Protocol took a decisive step forward. The new protocol should address all issues that the Kyoto deal left out, and make all responsible
  • 24. In the fourth month Imelda visits her Doctor again. COP14/CMP4 Poznan 2008 At this conference the work towards a new global climate agreement in Copenhagen continued
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  • 27. COP 15: Bury wasteful thinking? If COP 15 wants to achieve anything it must look beyond Cap and Trade. Negative penalties can never fund positive growth effectively. So Climate Change must have a new Profit Plan for funding the clean energy projects, irrespective of Carbon Permits. The Governments must work out these plans with the help of WB and IMF now. Why?
  • 28. “ Cherubic Child needs positive solutions not cap and feed” Why ?
  • 29. Problem : Critical grass root development of clean energy delayed by 15 years: to be funded by negative penalties? Solution : Climate change needs Positive profit plans not carbon trading
  • 30. Problem: Governments fooling the people for 15 years Solution: Governments must apologize publicly for using the U.N. the scientists, the administrators and the consultants to delay clean energy investments for 15 years in the name of “cap and trade” and endanger planet earth. For unless you develop economically viable alternatives, how can you expect the people to co-operate with energy savings.
  • 31. Positive solutions for climate change SOLAR POWER WIND ENERGY RAIN FOREST PLANTATION. Don’t waste resource on other alternatives that have no scalability Governments must take direct responsibility for funding them if needed, through the WB or the IMF Solutions like cap and trade will only increase clean energy costs and delay their implementation 15 years have been wasted now in endless dialogues and wrangling on carbon cap It’s time to move on. WHY?
  • 32. Let us see what Carbon Trade gives to the world today and its future as a utility resource generator.
  • 33. Cap and Trade savings are like the nicotine savings A few Carbon Trading initiatives have started or are being planned in the U.S. Australia and Europe. Among the first movers were (10) ten American North Eastern and mid Atlantic States that join hands to float a Regional Greenhouse Gas Initiative RGGI the first effort to monetise Cap and Trade program in the U.S. after 5 years of planning, in July 2008. The New York Mercantile Ex-change, a subsidiary of Nymex Holdings Inc. of New York, and the Chicago Climate Exchange, owned by Climate Exchange PLC of London, both launches RGGI carbon futures contracts in August 2008
  • 34. RGGI first Carbon auction RGGI Sells 12.5 million carbon credits @ price of $ 3.07 per unit raising $38.6 million in its first auction, the money raised from carbon polluters, mostly the fossil fuel power plants and industries in Sept 2008
  • 35. RGGI second Carbon auction RGGI Sells 31.6 million carbon credits @price of $3.38 per unit raising $107 million in auction money from carbon polluter and financial traders in the second auction of December 2008
  • 36. RGGI third Carbon auction RGGI Sells 33.3 million carbon credits @price of $3.51 each raising $117 million from the 3 rd carbon auction money in March 2009
  • 37. RGGI fourth Carbon auction RGGI Sells 30.8 million carbon credits @price of $ 3.23 raising $104 million in auction money from carbon polluters and financial traders in the fourth auction of July 2009
  • 38. RGGI annual proceeds from Carbon auction Total annual sale Carbon credits for ten American states selling 110 million carbon permits as of today is $366 million. Unlikely to go up much for the region, as large polluting units are no longer being installed .
  • 39. Clean energy demand is much higher than Carbon receipts Is it enough to fund green energy needs of the 10 states, when the cost of putting up a 250 MW Photovoltaic Cell solar rooftop power panel project is $875 million as per South California Edison (SCE) Power
  • 40. Carbon price will remain moderate, else utilities & factories will close down Can the price of Carbon Credits ever cross the $ 20 / tonne mark ( the minimum price required for sizable inflows to green energy markets) Financial traders have already entered the fray ensuring that Carbon credits prices fall in the fourth quarter auctions.
  • 41. Clean energy needs $ 200 billion annually Clean energy positive plan needs a global investment of $200 bn a year for the next 10 years to make a dent on environmental pollution and GHG. Cap & Trade can never fund such needs.
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  • 43. and then exasperated, he added wryly….. “ I understand from your mother who is my old client that she has huge holdings of J.P. Morgan and that she is bullish on Goldman Sachs. Tell her that Imelda is pregnant and her cherubic child will happen only if she re-deploys investment.” .
  • 44. Others presentations to follow in the climate change positive plan “clean energy” series CE 21…… onwards “Solutions in solar energy” CE 41……. onwards “Solutions in rainforest plantation” CE 61…….onwards “Solutions in wind energy” CE 81…….onwards “The perils of carbon trade” CE91……. onwards “ Cost reductions, volume growth and positive solutions for clean energy and climate change initiatives to make it a profit plan.” To be uploaded at slide share shortly from the last week of August 09.
  • 45. Acknowledgements Data from UNFCCC, IPCC, RGGI, Google search, Bloomberg and other internet resources. To our Art director Mrs. Katerina Voutsara. To Google and other websites for images For Queries : Sandip Sen [email_address]
  • 46. Our references Economy to Ecology Our goal is to help promote clean, safe and better practices in economy and ecology worldwide. Balanced, efficient and a little more sustainable. Amazon Kindle Blog : Ecothrust http://tinyurl.com/kpujfx
  • 47. Other presentations by user Business Risk management Series http://www.slideshare.net/SandipSen/living-dangerously-managing-risks-in-business-ba01ppt Business Risk Case Studies Ba31 http://www.slideshare.net/SandipSen/business-risk-case-study-ba31 Business Risk Case Studies Ba32 http://www.slideshare.net/SandipSen/business-risk-case-study-ba-32-1751378