Economic Indicators and Economic Monthly Overview October 2013

1. Economic Indicators
Last update 18.10.2013
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2. Economic Outlook Monthly Overview – October 2013
Europe:
• Consensus October GDP forecast for WE remained on 0,0% for 2013 and on 1,3% for 2014.
• Both, the EU industrial confidence and the consumer confidence indicator improved again in
September.
• The IFO Business Climate index for Germany rose for the 5th time in September. While the
assessment of the current business situation was slightly less favorably than in the previous
month, the six-months business expectations were once again more optimistic.
• The ECB kept its main interest rate on hold on October 2. Recovery remains weak , fragile and
uneven, inflation fell to 1,1%, notably below its 2% target.
US:
• Consensus October GDP forecast for the US remained on 1,6% for 2013 and decreased from
2,7% to 2,6% for 2014.
• US recovery prospects have been hit by the government shut-down, caused by the dispute
over the FY 2014 budget. Dysfunctional, polarised political wrangling has hurt confidence in the
US. Key fiscal issues were again being postponed to a later date.
Japan:
• The October GDP growth forecast for Japan again remained stable on 1,9% for 2013 and on
1,7% for 2014.
• The government took a small step forward in its plan to reduce Japan’s debt burden after it
proceeded with a much discussed sales tax increase earlier this month. The levy, which will be
implemented in April 2014 will increase from the current 5% rate to 8%.
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3. Eurostat Data
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4. 13 Q1
12 Q1
'11 Q1
'10 Q1
'09 Q1
'08 Q1
4
3
2
1
0
-1
-2
-3
-4
-5
'07Q1
%
Economic Indicators – GDP EU 27
GDP for the EU 27 countries at constant prices quarter vs. same quarter of last year
Source: Eurostat Sep 13
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5. Economic Indicators – GDP EU 27
1
0,5
0
%
-0,5
-1
-1,5
-2
13 Q1
12 Q1
'11 Q1
'10 Q1
'09 Q1
'08 Q1
'07Q1
-2,5
GDP for the EU 27 countries at constant prices quarter on quarter
Source: Eurostat Sep 13
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6. Economic Indicators –EU 27 Consumer Price Index
4,5
4
3,5
3
2,5
2
1,5
1
0,5
0
13/1
12/1
11/1
10/1
09/1
1,3
08/1
%
The harmonized index of consumer prices is the result of the collaboration
between Eurostat and National Statistical Institutes of the Member States.
Source: Eurostat Oct 13
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7. Eurozone inflation
Sep.13; 1,1
ECB short-term rate
Oct 13; 0,5
Jul.13
Jan 13
Jul.12
Jan 12
July 11
Jan 11
Jul.10
Jan 10
Jul.09
Oct 13; 0,25
Jan 09
July 08
4,5
4,0
3,5
3,0
2,5
2,0
1,5
1,0
FED rate
0,5
0,0
-0,5
Jan 08
%
Economic Indicators – ECB interest rate
Source: ECB, FED Oct 13
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8. Economic Indicators –EU 27 Unemployment Rate
12
11
10,9
%
10
9
8
7
Jan 13
Jan 12
Jan 11
Jan 10
Jan 09
Jan 08
6
Unemployment rate for EU 27 countries
Source: Eurostat Sep 13
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9. Economic Indicators – Industrial Confidence Ind EU
Industrial confidence within EU 27 improved again in September.
Jan 14
Jan 13
Jan 12
Jan 11
Jan 10
Jan 09
Jan 08
Jan 07
Jan 06
10
5
0
-5
-10
-15
-20
-25
-30
-35
-40
The Industrial Confidence Indicator is the arithmetic average of the answers to the
questions on production expectations, order books and stocks.
Source: Eurostat Oct 13
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10. Economic Indicators – Consumer Confidence Ind EU
Consumer Confidence within EU 27 improved again in September.
0
-5
-10
-15
-20
-25
-30
Jan 14
Jan 13
Jan 12
Jan 11
Jan 10
Jan 09
Jan 08
Jan 07
Jan 06
-35
The Consumer Confidence Indicator is the arithmetic average of the answers to the questions
on the financial situation of households and general economic situation (past and future)
together with that on the advisability of making major purchases.
Source: Eurostat Oct 13
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11. Economic Indicators – Capacity Utilization
in Manufacturing Industry in % - EU 27
85
78,9
80
75
%
70
65
13Q1
12Q1
11Q1
10Q1
09Q1
08Q1
07Q1
06Q1
05Q1
04Q1
60
The capacity utilization in manufacturing industry gives the level of capacity utilization
in percent, as assessed by managers in manufacturing industry.
Source: Eurostat Aug 13
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12. Ifo Data
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13. Economic Indicators – IFO World Economic Climate
The Ifo World Economic climate fell slightly in Q3 2013
This indicator is being updated on a quarterly basis.
Source: IFO Aug 13
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14. Economic Indicators – IFO European Economic Climate
The economic climate for Europe brightened slightly in Q3 2013.
This indicator is being updated on a quarterly basis.
Source: IFO Aug 13
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15. Economic Indicators – IFO NA Economic Climate
This indicator is being updated on a quarterly basis.
Source: IFO Aug 13
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16. Economic Indicators – GDP Forecast Euro Area
Source: IFO Oct 13
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17. Economic Indicators – GDP Forecast Germany
Source: IFO Oct 13
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18. Economic Indicators – Exchange rate $ vs €
Source: IFO June 13
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19. Economic Indicators –
Ifo business situation and 6 month expectations
6 months expectations
Business situation
Jan 13
Jan 12
Jan 11
Jan 10
Jan 09
Jan 08
Jan 13
Jan 12
Jan 11
Jan 10
Jan 09
115
110
105
100
95
90
85
80
75
Jan 08
125
120
115
110
105
100
95
90
85
80
The Ifo Business Climate Index for Germany rose for the 5th time in succession. Although
companies assessed their current business situation slightly less favorably, their business
expectations were once again more optimistic. The German economy made a confident start
to the autumn.
The IFO-Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung business situation index shows the current evaluation of the
economic situation, while the 6 month expectations index shows the expectations of the companies for the next
6 months. Over 7000 companies are being interviewed.
Source: IFO Oct 13
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20. Economic Indicators – IFO Assessment of Current
Business Situation
The Ifo Business Climate Index for Germany rose for the 5th time in succession. Although
companies assessed their current business situation slightly less favorably, their business
expectations were once again more optimistic. The German economy made a confident start
to the autumn.
Source: IFO Oct 13
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21. Economic Indicators – IFO business climate index
printing industry
The business climate within the printing industry improved slightly to -8 in August.
Jan 14
Jan 13
Jan 12
Jan 11
Jan 10
Jan 09
Jan 08
20
10
0
-10
-20
-30
-40
-50
-60
The IFO-Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung business climate index for the printing industry is
based on a monthly representative questionnaire to 300 German printers.
Source: IFO Sep 13, bundesverband druck und medien
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22. Economic Indicators – IFO business climate index
printing industry
Business Development at German Printers – August 2013:
 The assessment of the current business situation in the printing
industry improved compared to the last month to now -12%, which is
slightly worse than in the same month of last year.
 The business climate – an indicator for the development in
the next quarter – improved slightly to now -8%.
 The business expectations for the coming 6 months worsened by
10%points to now -3%. In the same month of last year expectations
were still positive at +8%.
The IFO-Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung business climate index for the printing industry is
based on a monthly representative questionnaire to 300 German printers.
Source: IFO Sep 13, bundesverband druck und medien
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23. Zenith Data
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24. Advertising Growth – Zenith 9/13 Press release
Source: ZenithOptimedia 9/13
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25. Advertising Growth – Zenith 9/13 Press release
Source: ZenithOptimedia 9/13
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26. Advertising Growth – Zenith 9/13 Press release
Source: ZenithOptimedia 9/13
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27. Advertising Growth – Zenith 9/13 Press release
Source: ZenithOptimedia 9/13
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