This presentation is based on a publication: Merenkulun kansainvälisen ilmasto- ja ympäristösääntelyn vaikutukset Suomen elinkeinoelämälle (in Finnish with English abstract) http://tietokayttoon.fi/julkaisu?pubid=21102

1. The Impact of Upcoming
International Environmental
Shipping Regulations
on Finnish Economy

2. Aims of the project (Acronym MERSU)
1. Provide information on anticipated direct and
indirect impacts of international environmental
shipping regulation on Finnish economy;
2. Assess the impacts of the above on Finnish
technology development especially related to so-
called Cleantech industries; and
3. Assess the impact of potential GHG reduction
measures and mechanisms discussed at IMO on
Finland, in particular in view of winter navigation
and the use of ice-strengthened vessels

3. The agreed-upon or known international
shipping regulations covered in the study
• SOx
• NOx
• EEDI
• MRV
• SEEMP
• Ballast water
treatment
• Solid waste & garbage
• Cargo hold washing waters
• Ship recycling
• Sewage from passenger ships
• Underwater noise
• Black carbon (Arctic)
The potential economic impact of GHG trading or
taxation schemes examined with hypothetical values

4. Economic impact of international environmental
shipping regulation on Finnish economy
• The combined economic impact* of the studied
regulatory changes on Finnish seaborne trade in
2020–2025 is estimated at 25–40 M€ p.a.
• This corresponds to:
• 0.1-0.2 % of Finnish firms’ logistics costs
• 0.3-0.4 % of Finnish firms’ transport costs
• on average, 0.26 to 0.42 € per tonne traded by sea**
• Equipment investments annualised over 10 years
with zero interest rate; running costs at going rate
*) Exclusive of potential GHG trading or taxation schemes
**) Finnish foreign trade by sea = 95 million tonnes in 2016

5. The economic impact of known international
environmental shipping regulations on Finnish
seaborne trade in M€ p.a. in 2013-2025

6. Economic impact of known environmental
shipping regulation on Finnish economy
• The impact is highest in industries, where the share
of shipping of logistics costs is the largest, such as:
• Metal, forest and chemical industries
• In particular sawmills are affected hard
• The cost for Finnish seaborne trade is estimated to
be 2-3 M€ p.a. higher compared to its main
competitors in the Baltic Sea range in 2020-2025.

7. The combined economic impact of international
environmental shipping regulation on Finnish
seaborne trade in M€ p.a. in 2013-2025
Σ = Costs in total in
2013-2025

8. • For several years up until spring 2017, freight rates have
remained unusually low in key shipping sectors.
• In most shipping sectors, freight rates oscillate between -
50 to +150 % around their annual average.
• The impact of the studied environmentally motivated
shipping regulations* on freight rates is estimated to be in
the range of 5-10 % from year 2020 onwards.
• The combined economic impact of the studied
regulatory changes appears to be < 1/10 of the freight
rate variation caused by market-driven reasons.
Economic impact of international environmental
shipping regulation on Finnish economy
*) Exclusive of potential GHG trading or taxation schemes

9. Other impacts of known environmental
shipping regulation changes on Finland
• Demand for inland transport between Finland and Continental
Europe and East Asia likely to increase
• Exodus of industrial production from Finland not likely
• Cost impact likely to be harmful for individual facilities in
especially process industries, and e.g. for sawmills
• Profitability of Finnish-based production in e.g. retail may improve
• If a CO2 trading scheme would materialise, and the price of
emission rights would be USD 8/tonne, the combined
economic impact for Finland would be
• Approximately 40–60 M€ per annum
• This would correspond to < 0.7 % of Finnish firms transport costs

10. The additional annual cost for Finland approx.
2-3 M€ compared to its main competitors
in the Baltic Sea range in 2020-2025
From 2021 onwards, a comparative advantage on SOx regulation is possible

11. Regulatory changes will speed up the renewal
of world fleet
• Complying with the changes shortens the economic
lifespan of older vessels, as the cost of retrofitting is
often prohibitively high compared to future earnings
• As a consequence,
• The number of ships using other forms of energy
than MDO will increase, especially those using LNG
• Ship recycling will intensify, causing also concerns of
having adequate dismantling and repair capacity.
• Demand for high-quality Finnish know-how in
shipping and marine technology will grow.

12. Direct and indirect effects of regulatory
changes on Finnish economy
• Results from GTAP model simulations do not suggest
significant effects at the level of the whole economy nor in
the industrial structure.
• Annual costs in Baltic sea shipping services will increase by EUR 50
million annually.
• Total imports will decrease by 0.09% (approximately USD 92 Million)
and total exports by 0.07 % (approximately USD 65 Million).
• Price for maritime freight within Baltic sea will increase by
4.9%. Freight volume decreases by 0.3 %.
• Overall impacts on external trade are relatively modest.
• Outside the maritime transportation industry, significant
impacts are observed in refined petroleum products industry.
• Following the regulatory changes, freight services will
increasingly concentrate on those operators already providing
a major part of Baltic shipping services.
• In Finland prices for passenger transport will increase by 1.5%
while private demand decreases by 0.8%.

13. Potential impact on Cleantech industries
• Global cleantech market based on the regulation
changes of shipping may exceed 10 billion EUR
during 2018-2022
• E.g. possible SOx scrubber installations may concern 10
000 vessels and this market potential could be 6-8 billion
EUR
• Finnish companies lead the R&D in this sector,
partly because of the need to adjust to
environmental regulation changes in the Baltic
Sea and the North Sea areas.
• Competition between equipment and service
providers is fierce, which introduces additional
uncertainty in estimates of future cleantech
market potential of Finnish companies
• This may be several billion EUR

14. The impact of GHG reduction measures and
mechanisms on Finland, incl. Winter navigation
• EU’s GHG reduction target in transport by 2050
cannot be achieved through EEDI alone
• Reaching the target requires also other measures, such
as CO2 trading schemes or additional fuel taxation
• CO2 trading would have a significant impact, but
• e.g. its timing, potential mechanism(s), emission levels
and targets are still open
• The market price of emission rights is of key
importance, but available estimates of future
price levels of CO2 / tonne vary considerably

15. Example: The estimated impact of EEDI on
global shipping emissions in 2015-2050

16. Estimated cost of GHG regulation for ship traffic
from/to Finland
• Goal: In 2050 GHG-emissions from shipping are
reduced by 50% from 2015 level
• Annual growth rate of emissions dominates the future
development
• The impact of possible GHG emission trading can be
significant, but the timing and the method of
implementation, including the emission cap, are not yet
defined
• The price of emission allowance will be a key factor, but the
large range of potential CO2 ton price makes cost predictions
difficult
• Assumption: Using 8 USD price for a ton of CO2 and 1.2% annual
growth rate, emission trading cost may be
• 2020: 34 Million USD/year
• 2050: 62 Million USD/year

17. Conclusion on the studied regulatory changes
• The economic impact of known regulatory changes for
Finland is estimated at 25–40 M€ p.a. in 2020–2025
• The impact is < 1/10 of typical freight rate market variation
• Impacts on shipping markets include the following:
• World fleet renewal will speed up; dismantling capacity becoming scarce
• Especially the use of LNG as an energy source for ships will increase
• EU’s GHG reduction target in transport by 2050 cannot be
achieved through EEDI alone
• The demand for ”Cleantech” solutions to comply with the
changes will increase rapidly
• This global market could exceed € 10 billion in 2018-2022

18. Reference and Acknowledgements
• This presentation is based on a publication: Merenkulun
kansainvälisen ilmasto- ja ympäristösääntelyn
vaikutukset Suomen elinkeinoelämälle (in Finnish with
English abstract)
• http://tietokayttoon.fi/julkaisu?pubid=21102
• Research team consisted of experts from Finnish
Meteorological Institute, VATT Institute for Economic
Research and three organizations of University of Turku
• This publication is part of the implementation of the
Government Plan for Analysis, Assessment and
Research for 2016 ( tietokayttoon.fi/en).
• The content is the responsibility of the producers of the
information and does not necessarily represent the view
of the Government
• Thank you all who commented or were interviewed