1. Fixing the Public Finances 2011 Bill Hall Partner – Public Sector

2. The Economy : How this cycle could pan out Boom 20% Doom 10% New normal Peak Trough Peak Trough Recession Expansion Debt machine restarts Double dip or worse Economics & Markets, Deloitte Research, London

3. The Economy : Growth Headwinds & Tailwinds Economics & Markets, Deloitte Research, London Headwinds Tailwinds Fiscal tightening Debt Weak consumers Uncertainty Low interest rates/QE2 Financial repair Strong corporates Momentum

4. The Economy : Key indicators The Deloitte Academy percent Source: HM Treasury

5. The Economy : Comparison to Others Economics & Markets, Deloitte Research, London Fiscal deficit for 2010 (% GDP) UK

6. The Economist house price indicators: % under(-)/over(+) valued against long-run average of price-to-rents ratio The Economy : Debt headwind Economics & Markets, Deloitte Research, London UK

7. The Economy : UK CFO Survey: availability and price of corporate credit Cost of credit Availability of credit Economics & Markets, Deloitte Research, London

10. Public Finances: Expenditure and Income Footer Source: Guardian Income = c£577bn

11. Public Finance: Tax and spend since 1980

12. Public Finances: The fiscal deficit

16. Public Finances : Government as a customer Government spending in 3 groups: AME cash payouts, pay, and spend on third parties. £243 billion worth of goods and services purchased annually. Deloitte thinks this may reach £300bn by 2013-14. Over £1 in every £3 spent by government is in the private sector. We think this could be up to 44 per cent by 2013-14 Represents 6 per cent of GDP and employs 1.2m people.

20. Member of Deloitte Touche Tohmatsu