What are the megatrends that affect our future? How will our lives change as a result of the need for ecological sustainability, intensifying globalisation and technological development? Find out more at www.sitra.fi/megatrends

2. Megatrends
2016
Sustainability
crisis now!
Global
interdependency
with growing
tensions
Technology
changes
everything

3. Technology
changes
everything
Virtualisation, digitalisation, artificial
intelligence (AI), instrumentalisation of
everything, robotisation, nanomaterials,
biotechnology, pharmacology, energy
technology, global ICT structures, global
crowd platforms, blockchain technology
"Will humankind
change more in
the next 30 years
than in the past
300?"
WHO HOLDS
THE FUTURE
VISION?
What kind of
society are we
building?
Technology establishment:
Humans will
become a
multiplanetary
species
The mystery
of death can
be solved
AI is
already
here
Human and
machine
can be
combined
Virtual
reality
changes
the game
WHO OWNS THE FUTURE?
Where it
currently hurts?
Work Media
+ other side effects
This challenges
our capability to
renew our thinking
But also
offers great
opportunities!
ALL!
Human, social,
economic
aspects… IMPACTS
Polarisa
tion
New organisations,
platforms and identities
Technology as an enabler of
sustainable well-being
Importance of
ethics
Return of humanism and
human capabilities
The new generation
will find its ways
The new deal of the economy
and the sharing economy
Wider definition of
well-being
Ageing population:
young people
can’t solve
the future
on their own
Everyone must take action

4. Technology changes
everything
The pace of technological development is extremely fast and affects all aspects
of human life – not just economic and social aspects but also the nature of
human being as species. This is a result of the development of artificial
intelligence, robotisation and the potential of genetic, medical and biological
instrumentation and other similar new technologies.
• The question will not be what the machines can do but what they should do.
• We should all take part in this conversation that is currently mainly reserved for technology
visionaries. The question is: What kind of society we want to build with the help of technology?
• The debates surrounding technology have been about work: possibilities for proper income, how
society is organised around work, what is the meaning of work for identity and which activities could
be counted as meaningful work. Basic income is an integral part of this debate.
• The demography of Western countries challenges us to think more closely about the renewal
mechanisms of ageing societies. This touches on sustainable well being. If machines can take care of
the work that we now spend our time on, it could help us concentrate on things that so far only
humans can do, like creativity, interaction, care, empathy and intuition.
• To become mainstream, sustainable lifestyles or adopting new technologies will need to be adopted
also by older generations. The youth is becoming a minority.
Would you like to know more from Sitra on the topic? We recommend:
Technology as an Enabler of Sustainable Well-being (2015) by Risto Linturi http://www.sitra.fi/en/julkaisu/2015/technology-
enabler-sustainable-well-being-modern-society
Megatrends 2016 (Our background memo in Finnish) www.sitra.fi/megatrends

5. Sustainability
crisis now!
Global
interdependency
Technology
changes
everything

6. The rise of the
geo-economy
Globalisation, world
trade and power politics
become even more
intertwined
New players,
initatives and
goals
+ tensions and
unpredictable factors
"The language is trade,
the logic is war"
New alliances,
goals and global
power play
Unpredictable global environment
USA, China, EU
WINNERS
International
organisations
CHALLENGE
WHAT
NOW?
Finland has
been the biggest
winner in
globalisation’s
last phase
Focus both
on global
and local
We must
assume
diversity
Cities hold
the keys to
wicked
problems
Resilience
and ways to
navigate in an
unpredictable,
complex
environment
Multilateral
world has
served
Finland well
We need to
come to terms
with this new
world!
Where does
the EU belong
in the future?
Momentum to
rise or fall.
+ the rise of those who can play the game and define their future
Global
interdependency

7. Global
interdependency
Globalisation, world trade and power politics are becoming even more
intertwined. We are learning to adjust to the planetary boundaries instead of
borders of nation states. This can also be felt in the tone of global politics. The
World Economic Forum (WEF) uses the term geo-economics to refer to this close
link between trade and power politics: ”The language is trade but the logic is
war.”
• New alliances and goals around the globe will shift the old power paradigms. In this environment those
who are able to define their own goals and future seem to gain power: the USA, China and the EU,
according to WEF.
• The future of the EU is a focal point for the whole of Europe and for Finland. The union is vital while at
the same time is challenged politically from within.
• The global environment is difficult to navigate and many surprise factors can quickly change the game.
Terrorism, Russia’s policies, oil prices, surprises in the US presidential election and climate change are
all factors of an environment that constantly produces unforeseeable developments.
• One big question for the near future is that of the Middle East and the growing instability in the region.
The continuation and escalation of conflict in the region is a troublesome scenario which may have
long-term consequences for the whole world.
• This global environment has been a challenge for international organisations in the field of politics.
However, climate has acted as a counter-balancer for politics. The Paris agreement at COP21 in 2015 is
the most significant agreement for 25 years.
• Finland has been the biggest winner of the last phase of globalisation, between 1990 and 2011,
according to Bertelsmann Stiftung. In addition, the multilateral world and active participation in a global
arena has made Finland’s influence greater than its size would merit. What will be the direction from
now on? We need to adapt to the new unpredictable environment and find ways to manage complexity.
Would you like to find out more from Sitra on the topic? We recommend:
Aasia haastaa valtio- ja demokratiakäsityksemme (2015) by Teppo Turkki http://www.sitra.fi/julkaisu/2015/aasia-haastaa-valtio-ja-
demokratiakasitystamme-uudistumaan
Megatrends 2016 (Our background memo in Finnish) www.sitra.fi/megatrends

8. Sustainability
crisis now!
Global
interdependency
Technology
changes
everything

9. Solutions: technology + people
New mindset about the
planet, economy and
well-being
1 Energy
revolution:
renewables
paving their
way, fossils in
decline
In the air…
The biggest
challenge of
our time
Technology
De-coupling of economic
growth and the use of
natural resources
€1500 billion market
for cleantech
solutions 2020
Is this trend an opportunity
for humankind to work
together?
The solutions
are already in
our hands!
2 The
potential of
the circular
economy
Smart
services and
products
finding
markets
3 Smart
seamless
traffic
4 Cities are the key to
solving wicked
problems: new local
solutions with the
help of technology
5
But even
the best
solution or
technology
needs
people to
work
Global warming
and resource
scarcity
Dramatic decrease of natural
resources and climate change are
challenges that will define the
future. We have to act now.
A 4-6 °C increase in
temperature would
be catastrophic
!
People
Sustainability
crisis now!

10. Sustainability
crisis now!
Our actions now define the future. We are facing the biggest challenge of our time
as we have to de-couple economic growth from emissions and the overuse of
natural resources. This means a completely new mind-set on the economy,
consumption, technology and well-being.
• However, it seems that many solutions are now coming to the fore; the energy revolution, the circular
economy, smart services and products and smart seamless transport. Technological development is
making great strides.
• Megacities and urbanisation can also be crucial. In 2050 almost 70% of the world’s population will live in
cities. The solutions for traffic, housing and governance in urban areas will define the scale of
sustainability for the whole world. Also, new local solutions might become more available in the future.
Underground farming and self-sustained energy production are interesting examples.
• But as important as technology is, it needs people to work. Changing mind-sets at all levels is a difficult
task. Issues relating to sustainability are also extremely complex and include many different stakeholders.
Therefore, sustainability and behavioural change often require multidisciplinary approaches.
• The good news is that the solutions are already in our hands in many ways. Cleantech solutions are
expected to be worth 1500 billion euros by 2020 in the field of urban infrastructure. The transport and
mobility cleantech markets are likely to grow rapidly.
• Smart waste and water systems also offer big opportunities. The circular economy creates closed loops
for material use combining technology into them. The biggest opportunities in the circular economy are in
the new business models based on access, renewability and services.
• The world could cut annual greenhouse gas emissions by about 12 gigatonnes by 2030 using only
established and proven climate solutions.
Would you like to know more from Sitra on the topic? We recommend:
Green to Scale (2015) https://www.sitra.fi/en/julkaisu/2015/green-scale
Benefits of Carbon Neutrality in the Rapidly Changin Business Environment (2015) https://www.sitra.fi/en/julkaisu/2015/benefits-
carbon-neutrality-rapidly-changing-business
Megatrends 2016 (Our background memo in Finnish) www.sitra.fi/megatrends

11. Sustainability
crisis now!
Global
interdependency
Technology
changes
everything
Megatrends
2016