Tony Quinlan (https://twitter.com/tquinlan) from Narrate gave a presentation on Designing Portfolios with Sensemaking in Sitra Lab's (http://sitra.fi/lab) Innovation Portfolio Sensemaking and Management workshop on 27.1.2020 (https://www.sitra.fi/en/events/workshop-innovation-portfolio-sensemaking-and-management/).

1. 1
Designing portfolios with sensemaking

2. 2
109876543210

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4. 4
What we’re skipping today ...
Detecting radicalisation
The limits of
social taboos
Foresight
Risk assessment and horizon
scanning
Non-causal systems
Scaling programs using
complexity principles
Central monitoring,
local projects
Bangladesh latrine
habits
The problems of using
measures as targets
Impact assessment
Sharing knowledge from
crisis situations
Organisational
culture change
Prejudice and attitudes
to ethnicity
Peace and reconciliation in Eurasia
Misinterpretation of
field results
Rwandan gender
attitudes

5. 5
Cynefin framework
Obvious
Sense - Categorise - Respond
Best Practice
Complicated
Sense - Analyse - Respond
Good Practice
Complex
Probe - Sense - Respond
Emergent Practice
Chaotic
Act - Sense - Respond
Novel Practice
Disorder

6. 6
Rules get more complicated to take
scenarios into account

7. 7
Joining up the dots
Number of dots
Number of possible
links
Number of possible
patterns
N=4 L=6 P=64
N=10 L=45 P=35 trillion
N=12 L=66 P=73.8 quintillion
L= N(N-1)/2 P=2L
‘Connectivity, Extremes and Adaptation’ Boisot & McKelvey in
Journal of Mangement Inquiry 2011 20:119

8. 8

9. 9
We a d a p t u r b a n d e v e l o p m e n t
t o t h e p h y s i c a l l a n d s c a p e
We accept there are some
things that we can’t do,
given the terrain
The same applies to the
invisible cultural landscape
•Different history
•Different religions
•Different values
•Different concerns

10. 10
The core of
dealing with
complexity
shift the
system, don’t
solve the
problem
monitor
broadly
Take
Oblique
approaches
build in
diversity
Set direction
not destination
Nudge and
experiment
see the
system
landscape

11. 11
Portfolio design
approach 1
Multiple overlapping, poorly described problems
in the same space
Diverse group of participants
List out what influences or restricts each issue
(or use more sophisticated systems maps)
Cluster influences and restrictions
preferably for coherence
Simple grid to help decision-making
problems vs clusters
Multiple experiments around the clusters, not
the original problems

12. 12

13. 13
Complex
problems
Deal with the system, don't break it down into
components
Understand the reality of now, along with the
possible and impossible routes forward
Set directions, not targets or fixed future visions

14. 14
Acoustic SenseMaker

15. 15
Think of a recent
event related to
your work that
frustrated or
pleased you.
Summarise that example on a sheet of paper in
whatever language is most natural for you
Don’t worry about spelling, punctuation or grammar
If that were in a newspaper or a clickbait
blogpost, what headline might you give it - write
that on a post-it note

16. 16
Think of a recent
work event that
frustrated or
pleased you.
Now write your birthday (as four-digits) on the
post-it note
So 18th December = 1812, 8th January = 0801
Now go to the sheets on the wall and put your
four digits on each one to show where you
believe your example sits

17. 17
Only the respondent knows what their story
means
Layers of meaning
De-privilege the expert
Clarifying the voice of the beneficiary

18. 18
‫الحرية‬ ‫حمامة‬
‫حمامة‬ ‫عن‬ ‫عبارة‬ ‫وهى‬ ‫بالحرية‬ ‫بتفكرنى‬
‫بحرك‬ ‫ماكنتش‬ ‫النت‬ ‫على‬ ‫زيها‬ ‫شوفت‬ ‫الحرية‬
‫والحرية‬ ‫الحرية‬ ‫حمامة‬ ‫تحتها‬ ‫مكتوب‬ ‫كان‬
‫االنسان‬ ‫فى‬ ‫غريزة‬ ‫وهى‬ ‫انسان‬ ‫كل‬ ‫يستحقها‬
‫والحيوان‬

19. 19
What type of justice is
shown in your story?
Deterrence, stop other
people doing the same
Restorative, reconciling
Get your own back,
revenge

20. 20 Deterrence, stop other
people doing the same
Restorative,
reconciling
Get your own back,
revenge
20
‫الحرية‬ ‫حمامة‬
‫حمامة‬ ‫عن‬ ‫عبارة‬ ‫وهى‬ ‫بالحرية‬ ‫بتفكرنى‬
‫بحرك‬ ‫ماكنتش‬ ‫النت‬ ‫على‬ ‫زيها‬ ‫شوفت‬ ‫الحرية‬
‫والحرية‬ ‫الحرية‬ ‫حمامة‬ ‫تحتها‬ ‫مكتوب‬ ‫كان‬
‫االنسان‬ ‫فى‬ ‫غريزة‬ ‫وهى‬ ‫انسان‬ ‫كل‬ ‫يستحقها‬
‫والحيوان‬

21. 21 Deterrence, stop other
people doing the same
Restorative,
reconciling
Get your own back,
revenge
21
1895 stories

22. 22

23. 23
In a complex
environment, we
need …
Detailed data, that combines actual experience
and context, with quantitative elements for
measurement
Diverse perspectives, from across the
organisation
Scanning mechanism
•Regular, frequent information
•Fast input focused on key shaping factors

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Why have them
use the triads,
etc?
More authentic voice
Prevents misinterpretation
Makes every voice equal
Allows data-sharing with anonymity/
confidentiality
Sharing the meta-data without sharing the stories
where necessary
Can build dashboards for specific groups/users
Data is often relevant to other departments
Lets us monitor and measure and perform
statistics on essentially qualitative data

25. 25
Gathers qual and
quant data
simultaneously
Every dot on a triad gives us three
relative values - one per corner
Then we can do stats and analysis…

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27. 27
Formaljobsarethemainsourceof
income
A person’s skills are the important
factor in this example

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1. If this is the issue they
believe is paramount, it
will be very hard to shift
perceptions
2. If this is the issue they
believe is paramount,
things are more likely to
get worse

29. 29
Formaljobsarethemainsourceofincome
A person’s skills are the important factor in this example
More like
these
Fewer
like these

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Portfolio design
approach 2
Narrative defined direction
(not destination)
Diverse groups of participants
Experts in subject matter, experts in local context,
representatives of citizens
What projects would you do that would generate
“more stories like these and fewer like those”
Evolve ideas rapidly
subject them to challenge and combine/re-combine
them
Simple grid to help decision-making
problems vs clusters
Multiple experiments around the clusters, not the
original problems

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common mistakes
No pre-planned review cycle
Feedback to research subjects helps ensure more
data later
Looking for confirmation, not paying attention to
disproving results
Learning is the goal
All projects succeed
Not testing the boundaries of unpredictability
Not being innovative enough
Not realising some things are necessary steps on the
journey - but only temporary
Simplistic lessons learned - do’s and don’ts
Expecting a final steady state

32. 32
Confidential
country
Peace and
reconciliation
Showed key issues in isolated
breakaway region were not
international isolation, but poor local
infrastructure, creating increased
community
Balkans
Roma social
deprivation
and
immigration
cycle
Revealed different national
perceptions of Roma groups, key
areas of social need, along with
likelihood of re-entering EU countries
Jordan
Sustainable
Livelihoods
programme as
PVE
Showed multiple programme effects
- importance of social capital,
increased diversity and reduced
susceptibility to radicalisation

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Colombia
Economic
innovation
Identified key obstacles and attitudes
to developing more SME economic
activity
UK Healthcare
Gave patients voices to shape
transformation, share knowledge
and improve training of healthcare
professionals
Honduras
Situational
awareness for
transition
Developed small-scale local actions
to begin to stabilise communities and
reduce conflict inclinations

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Monitoring experiments via narrative

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Reducing effect No change Increasing effect
Most important and
welcome shift
Characteristics of this group
0
10
20
30
40
step 1 - lowest step 3 - low-middle step 5 - high
18-24
4 ‫ﺣﻠﻮة‬ ‫اﻟﺤﯿﺎة‬
‫ﻟﻤﺴﺎت‬
‫ﻛﻔﺎح‬ ‫ﻗﺼﮫ‬
‫٤ﺳﻨﯿﻦ‬ ‫ﻓﻲ‬ ‫ﺣﯿﺎﺗﻲ‬
‫ﻋﺎطﻠﻮن‬
‫اﻟﻠﮫ‬ ‫ﯾﻔﺮﺟﮭﺎ‬
‫اﻟﺤﻤﻞ‬ ‫ﺗﻮزﯾﻊ‬
‫ﺑﺴﯿﻂ‬ ‫إﻧﺴﺎن‬ ‫ﺣﯿﺎة‬
‫ﻣﻐﺘﺮﺑﯿﻦ‬
‫اﻟﻤﻌﺮوف‬ ‫رد‬
‫اﻟﻮرﺛﺔ‬
‫ﯾﮭﺮب‬ ‫ﻣﺤﺎﻣﻲ‬ ‫ﻣﺴﺘﻘﺒﻠﻲ‬
‫ﻣﮭﺎراﺗﻲ‬ ‫ﺗﻄﻮﯾﺮ‬
‫ﺑﺎﻟﻠﮫ‬ ‫اﻻ‬ ‫ﺑﻮة‬ ‫وﻻ‬ ‫ﺣﻮل‬ ‫ﻻ‬
‫اﻟﺤﯿﺎة‬ ‫ﻋﻠﻰ‬ ‫اﻻﺻﺮار‬
‫اﻟﺮاﺑﻄﺔ‬
‫ﺣﯿﺎﺗﻲ‬ ‫ﺻﻌﻮﺑﺔ‬
‫ﻟﻨﻔﺴﻚ‬ ‫ﺷﻲء‬ ‫اﺻﻨﻊ‬
5 ‫ﻛﻔﺎح‬
Concerning signs of
negative deviancy

36. 36
More subtle effects and indicators
These people believe less
than they did that diversity is
helpful
These people have not
changed
These people now believe
more than they did that
diversity is helpful

37. 37
This study have
changed my point of
view to tend to social
capital more than
financial capital
When people able to
survive they look for
social status.
Relationships are the
base and through it, we
develop skills and
experience that lead you
to financial capital
Quotes from beneficiary participants
in analysis workshop, December 2017

38. 38
Social Capital
Critical, very important ‫حرج‬
Lacking,notenough‫قليل‬
Toomuch,lots‫كثير‬
Irrelevant ‫عالقة‬ ‫ال‬

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Social Capital
How much social capital?
‫اإلجتماعي؟‬ ‫المال‬ ‫رأس‬ ‫مقدار‬ ‫ما‬
How important is social capital?
‫اإلجتماعي؟‬ ‫المال‬ ‫رأس‬ ‫اهمية‬ ‫ما‬
-5 -4 -3 -2 -1 0 1 2 3 4 5
-4 -3 -2 -1 0 1 2 3 4

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After this
workshop…
Slides will be available
One-to-one clinic
sessions for confidential
discussions
www.narrate.co.uk/
Sitra2020