SCF CEO Sue Monahan gives insight into the key trends for small cells in the MENA region

1. Crossing the chasm: Small cell industry 2016
Sue Monahan, CEO, Small Cell Forum

2. January 2016
Crossing the Chasm:

3. Important new report includes
data from:
• Market Status Report, Mobile
Experts, November 2015 – available
exclusively to SCF members
• Potential for small cells
infrastructure-as-a-service in the
US, iGR, Q3 2015
• Small cell operator survey Q3 2015,
Rethink Technology Research
Download the full report at scf.io
Crossing the Chasm: new report
published
November 2015

4. Softbank's rural and remote small cells exploit seasonal
variations to reduce their satellite backhaul bandwidth
http://goo.gl/lBPLBf http://scf.io/case/005
Secluded Station
Peaks on public holidays
Ski Resort
used in winter
Mountain Trail
Most used in summer
Rural & Remote Small Cells in Japan
More examples

5. Alcatel Lucent small cells integrate with street furniture
leveraging existing site services organisation
http://goo.gl/TKFjz5 http://scf.io/case/011

6. Cisco upgrade existing Wi-Fi access points to add a great 3G
voice service with low incremental CapEx & OpEx
http://goo.gl/lsbA0W
University Case Study
Deployed 3G indoor small cells over 1700sqm university campus
Leveraging existing Wi-Fi sites and infrastructure to add great 3G voice
EcNo ≤ - 7dB 98% of walk route EcNo ≥ - 9dB 97% of walk route
Before: 3G Macro After: Macro + small cells
KPIs
Call setup success
Call drop ratio

7. Open Source small cells from Lime Microsystems enable
Mexican operator to serve remote village with very low ARPU
http://goo.gl/MKXO8p
Bringing cellular to disadvantaged rural communities
Solution Leverage open source:
• Base station with a built-in PBX from Fairwaves
• Uses Lime field-programmable RF devices
• Flexible RF platform, covers all cellular bands
• Allows villagers to make free calls to one another
• Enhanced medical coverage
• 14 concurrent voice connections
• Long distance calls via satellite internet
• Simple “do-it-yourself” installation
• Programmability mitigates interference
More info:
www.eetimes.com/author.asp?section_id=36&doc_id=1320012
http://scf.io/case/004
Challenge: bringing coverage to the remote village of
Santa Maria Yaviche in Mexico with very low ARPU

8. • Shipments rise from 4.05m
to 10.37m units 2014-20
• Enterprise important engine
for growth – 110% upswing
in 2015
• Large urban rollouts started
in 2015, shipments up
fourfold in 2015
• 2014 – market matured;
2015 – growth accelerated
The big question is:
‘How do I monetize & deploy
at scale?’
Argument for small cells has been won
January 2016

9. By 2020 small cells can achieve significant
critical mass – installed base 7x macrocells.
This means:
• Small cells will drive the RAN architectural
agenda
• Small cells at the heart of 5G and IoT
• Attractive volumes for whole ecosystem,
driving innovation
This is a real turning point:
Small Cells now own the debate
42,500,000
6,400,000
0
5,000,000
10,000,000
15,000,000
20,000,000
25,000,000
30,000,000
35,000,000
40,000,000
45,000,000
Small cell Macrocell
units
Seizing the opportunity
January 2016
7x more
Small Cell
than
Macrocell
by 2020

10. January 2016
• SCF achievement so far built on a single successful architecture and the main engine for
immediate and continued growth
• However, today no single architecture will suit huge range of future wireless use cases. A
flexible approach is required to:
• address range of operator scenarios and services
• provide choice of architectures in line with spectrum, fiber, other considerations, while
maintaining underlying common standards
Meeting future network needs –
broadening the remit
Base Station Densification Broader set of use cases NFV and SDN

11. Future generation deployments very
different: Dense, automated, multiband,
neutral host, separate layer, some
virtualized
Requires new approaches:
• Emergence of low-power radio heads, now
adopted within SCF definition
• First step in evolution towards virtualized
small cells with many split options
• Transition to virtualized RAN blurs
boundaries between conventional
neutral-host DAS systems and new
virtualized RAN architecture.
Today’s generation
Future generation
Ad hoc, opportunistic
A well-planned
second layer
Small numbers
Dense
Manually organized
SON
Homogeneous cells
Move to Virtualization
3G or LTE
Multimode including
Wi-Fi
Same spectrum as
macro
Many bands – including
licence-exempt
Single operator
Neutral host or shared
ownership
Meeting future network needs –
optimized network architectures
January 2016

12. Key drivers to
deploy small cells
2015-20:
• Cost capacity and
coverage still key
• Support new
revenue streams –
eg. M2M
• Harness new
spectrum bands
eg. 3.5GHz and
above
• First step to
Virtualization
We will deliver workable architectures
to address global drivers
Source: Rethink Technology Research
January 2016

13. Particular acceleration in non-residential
market, esp in countries where public WiFi
less established
North Africa slower to take off but
overtakes in new deployments in 2019
CAGR 145% in N Africa, 95% in ME –higher
than global CAGR of 66% for non-
residential
Region was generally slow to adopt 3G, but
has leapfrogged in 4G. Some operators
interested in dense 4G-first approach
Small cell adoption MENA
0.0
10.0
20.0
30.0
40.0
50.0
60.0
70.0
2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
,000
North Africa Middle East
Deployments of new non-residential small cells
Source: Rethink Technology Research

14. Patterns are different from those of other
regions
Emphasis on rural coverage, indoor quality
and IoT higher than global average
Capacity and cost are less serious
constraints than in many regions (though
still important)
High interest in new architectures such as
IoT and virtualisation, esp in Middle East
Strong emphasis on smart cities
Lower installed base of public Wi-Fi, raising
profile of small cells
Small cell drivers MENA
50 48 48
30
25 25 23 23
16
11
29
41
29
41
12
18
59
35
24
12
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
%ofoperators Global MENA
% placing each driver in the top 3
Source: Rethink Technology Research

15. TCO and ROI, rather than capex, dominate
the risks.
Backhaul and site issues – less confidence
than in some regions that these can be
addressed. High bureaucracy in some
countries.
Less concern than global average about
spectrum (heavy use of TDD)
Relatively early stage market, so large
scale automation and WiFi integration
figure less highly than elsewhere, for now
Small cell barriers MENA
50
42
37
35
33
26 25
22
18
12
29
18
35
41
53
47
35
12
18
12
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
%ofoperators
Global MENA
% placing each barrier in the top 3
Source: Rethink Technology Research

16. Over 40% of MENA operators surveyed
would bring forward roll-out by 12 months
or more if their top concerns were
addressed
Deployment timescales are not fixed, but
most need more practical help and
confidence to cross the chasm
High regional interest in some key Forum
work items eg virtualisation, IoT, enterprise
Accelerating the timescales
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
No difference 6 months 12 months 24 months
%ofMNOs
M East N Africa Global
Source: Rethink Technology Research

17. Building for
the future
Small Cell Forum
work program
2015/16

18. • Our work is about supporting:
• new architectures
• new spectrum options
• new business cases
• new service models
• a broadening ecosystem
• real world use cases
Delivering needed industry knowledge
through our new work program
Enterprise small cells
License-exempt spectrum
HetNet and SON
Virtualization
Multi-operator support
Delivering 5G and IoT
Our new work program:
answering the question HOW?
January 2016

19. January 2016
Small Cell Forum – work program roadmap
Multi-operator
2013 2014 2015 2016 20172012
WI
SI
LAA
SC Wi-Fi with WBA
Home
Enterprise
Urban
Rural and Remote
Virtualization
License-exempt
HetNet & SON
R1
R2
R3 R4
R5
R5.1
R5.2
R6
definition of nFAPI
China Mobile
Cisco, ip.access
Vodafone, Qualcomm
5G, IoT
Truphone, ip.access
AT&T, Ericsson, Airhop
Reliance Jio, Huawei
Kick-off
Deliverables Defined
Release
Enterprise
Orange
Spidercloud, Huawei
R2

20. • Installed base more than doubled 2015
(Source: Mobile Experts)
• Wide target market – ie. from venues to
factories to SoHo
• 62% of large US companies interested in
small cells (Source: iGR)
• Enterprise has higher than average
interest in small cells for indoor coverage/
voice, new services, IoT, Virtualization
(Source: Rethink)
• Drives new value chains – by 2020 only
20% of Enterprise small cells MNO-
managed
286,350
639,327
0
100,000
200,000
300,000
400,000
500,000
600,000
700,000
Q314 Q315
units
Enterprise: small cells enable a more
effective Enterprise workforce
January 2016
+110%
growth
during 2015

21. Many vRAN deployments will start in
small cell layer
• 43% of small cell deployers will also be
adopting Virtualization by 2018
Critical for SCF members to drive this
work:
• nFAPI work will define best splits and
create unified platform; and
• Enable new deployment models which
lower barriers – eg. ‘as a service’,
per-AP licensing
Small Cell Virtualization – enabling new
deployment models
Conventional small cell Virtualized small cell
MAC
FAPI
P5 & P7
PHY
Vendor
Ext
nFAPI
P5 & P7
nFAPI
P5 & P7
PHY
Vendor
Ext
MAC
RF
Vendor
Ext
nFAPI Interworking
January 2016

22. January 2016
SCF drives interoperability and unity while supporting flexible use cases
Small cell Virtualization –
answering the big questions
Topic Findings
What are the real business benefits of
Virtualization in the RAN?
Identified centralization benefits, transport
costs and MANO/automation elastic scaling
capabilities
Are current small cell architectures well
suited to Virtualization?
Yes – FAPI MAC/PHY decomposition well suited
to provide Virtualization baseline
Can Virtualization deliver a phased roadmap –
eg. aligned with longer-term 5G directions?
Yes – Flexible Virtualization over non-ideal
transport now emerging as a core 5G
requirement
How do we ensure Virtualization supports
innovation across a multi-vendor ecosystem?
SCF’s nFAPI workstream set to accelerate
multi-vendor PNF/VNF interoperability

23. January 2016
Small cell Virtualization –
deliverables and timelines
nFAPI Definition
nFAPI Demonstration
PDCP/RLC Recom’tions
(ETSI ISG NFV) PoC
nFAPI Std Ownership
VNF SVC API/MEC
Multi-operator Scoping
2017
Placeholder for SVC
engagement
Placeholder for Multi-Op engagement
Kick-off
Deliverables
Complete
2015 2016
PNF Management
ETSI-MANO Recom’tions NET
Board
IOP
RPH
R5.1 R6

24. • SON becomes essential as
networks densify
• By 2020, 40% of small cells deployed in
hyper-dense environments (150 per km2)
• SON must be interoperable and able to
work with all technologies and with
Virtualization
• Absolute priority is to avoid fatal
fragmentation – eg. Release 6 solutions
and requirements, Plugfests, services API
HetNet and SON –
enabling mass-market scale
January 2016

25. SCF is well placed to drive unlicensed as it is small cell-specific in higher band – LTE
in 5GHz only applies to small cells. Work items include:
• Joint SCF/WBA taskforce delivering specification of the architecture & interfaces
of trusted WLAN networks - in particular, those aspects that were not considered
by 3GPP
• Delivering FAPI and nFAPI support for LTE-LAA/Wi-Fi coexistence
• Systematic assessment of Wi-Fi Calling, small cell VoLTE and over-the-top VoIP
against seven core criteria for carrier voice services – capacity, quality, security,
coverage, mobility, deployment and cost
Architectural & performance implications
of unlicensed usage
LTE unlicensed
small cell
Unlicensed
Licensed anchor
Carrier
aggregationLTE/LTE-U
© Small Cell Forum Ltd 2016

26. Work stream mission: “To make licensed radio small cells the preferred
solution for vertical market, multi-operator solutions”
Work items include:
• Business case
• Existing and upcoming technology
• Regulatory
• Spectrum licensing – existing and new licensing regimes
• Existing deployments – Why they work and why aren’t there more of them?
Multi-operator/neutral host –
delivering new opportunities
January 2016

27. • SCF playing a leadership role in 5G
debate
• IoT and 5G networks – many areas
unclear but will certainly be small cell
driven
• Allow operators to differentiate on a
standard platform
• Two key areas of SCF activity
– ultra-density and fully service-oriented
networks with open APIs
• Forum submitted vision to 3GPP
• Work with NGMN, ETSI, GSMA,
4G Americas
Maximizing future potential in IoT and 5G
Service oriented
networks
• Enterprise use cases
• Open API
• Edge services
Ultra dense networks
• Deployment
• Backhaul/fronthaul
arch
• HetNet & SON
NGMN, MEC (ETSI, GSMA), 5GPPP
January 2016

28. January 2016
SCF is driving solutions for HetNet2020 that are:
• Massively scalable, driving affordable economics and future growth
• Directly responsible for new revenues, via applications and services that could not
otherwise exist
• Future-proofed, to take the risk out of deployment and allow for future use cases,
even those which are currently unclear
Join us!
Shape the future of small cells and the integrated HetNet
Join us – seize the opportunity

29. Crossing the Chasm: report
published in November
scf.io
January 2016