PERT (Programme Evaluation and Review Technique) was developed in 1956–58 by a research team to help in the planning and scheduling of the US Navy’s Polaris Nuclear Submarine Missile project involving thousands of activities. The objective of the team was to efficiently plan and develop the Polaris missile system. This technique has proved to be useful for projects that have an element of uncertainty in the estimation of activity duration, as is the case with new types of projects which have never been taken up before. Project management is important for several reasons: 1. Effective planning: Project management provides a structured approach to planning and executing projects. By defining clear objectives, timelines, and milestones, project managers can ensure that everyone on the team is working towards a common goal and that resources are allocated efficiently. 2. Cost control: Project management helps to control costs by identifying potential cost overruns early on and taking corrective action to prevent them. By keeping a close eye on project finances, project managers can ensure that the project stays within budget. 3. Risk management: Projects are inherently risky, and project management helps to identify, assess, and mitigate risks throughout the project lifecycle. By proactively managing risks, project managers can reduce the likelihood of negative outcomes and ensure that the project is completed successfully. 4. Improved communication: Good project management involves clear communication among team members, stakeholders, and sponsors. This helps to ensure that everyone understands their roles and responsibilities, and that there are no surprises or misunderstandings along the way. 5. Quality control: Project management also focuses on ensuring that the project delivers a high-quality output. By defining quality standards and conducting regular quality checks, project managers can ensure that the final product meets the requirements and expectations of stakeholders.

1. Project Management
: PERT
SnehalAthawale
PhD Scholar (School of Social Sciences)
CPGS-AS, Umiam, Meghalaya
Course no.AEC-605

2. —Peter Drucker
“T
ime is the scarcest resouce and
unless it is managed nothing else can
be managed .
”

3. Key differance between Projects and
Programs
PROJECT PROGRAMS
Single
Shorter
Produces output
Multiple Projects
Longer duration
Produces outcomes
DIFFERANCE

4. PROJECT
 Involves a large number of interrelated activities (or tasks)
Completed on or before a specified time limit
In a specified sequence (or order)
 Specified quality and minimum cost of using resources
E.
g. power plant, development and marketing of a new
product, research and development work, etc.
Since a project involves large number of interrelated
activities, therefore it is necessary to prepare a plan for
scheduling and controlling these activities (or tasks).
This approach will help in identifying bottlenecks and even
discovering alternate work-plan for the project.

5. Network Analysis, Network Planning or Network Planning and Scheduling
Techniques are used for planning, scheduling and controlling large and
complex projects. These techniques are based on the representation of the
project as a network of activities. A network is a graphical presentation of
arrows and nodes for showing the logical sequence of various activities to be
performed to achieve project objectives. There are two well-known
techniques – PERT and CPM.

6. Programme Evaluation and Review Technique
●PERT(Programme Evaluation and Review Technique) was
developed in 1956–58 by a research team to help in the
planning and scheduling of the US Navy’s Polaris Nuclear
Submarine Missile project involving thousands of activities.
The objective of the team was to efficiently plan and develop
the Polaris missile system.
●This technique has proved to be useful for projects that have
an element of uncertainty in the estimation of activity
duration,as is the case with new types of projects which
have never been taken up before.

7. Programme Evaluation and Review Technique
Weighted average Probability distribution
of the expected completiontime of
each activity is calculated given three
time estimates of its completion.
Time estimates are derived from
probability distribution of
completion times of an activity.
Event-oriented technique Scheduled completion date
Emphasis is given on the completion of
a task rather than the activities
required to be performed to complete
a task.
helps in identifying criticalareas in a
project so that necessary adjustments
can be made to meet the scheduled
completion date of the project.

8. PROJECT SCHEDULING WITH UNCERTAIN ACTIVITY TIMES
The shortest possible time
(duration) in which an activity
can be performed assuming that
everything goes well.
The longest possible time
required to perform an activity
under extremely bad conditions
The time that would occur most
often to complete an activity, if
the activity was repeated under
exactly the same conditions
many times
Expected
time (te)
Most likely time (tm or m)
Optimistic time (to or a) Pessimistic time (tp or b)
PERT was developed to handle projects where the time duration for each activity is not known with certainty
but is a random variablethat is characterized by β (beta)-distribution.To estimate the parameters:mean and
variance, of the β-distribution three time estimates for each activity are required to calculate its expected
completion time.

9. PROJECT SCHEDULING WITH UNCERTAIN ACTIVITY TIMES
The β-distribution is not necessarily
symmetric, the degree of skewness
depends on the location of tm to to and
tp. The range of optimistic time (to) and
pessimistic time (tp) is assumed to
enclose every possible duration of the
activity. The most likely completion time
(tm) for an activity may not be equal to
the midpoint (to + tp)/2 and may occur
to its left or to its right as shown in Fig.
In Beta-distribution the midpoint (t o + t p)/2 is given half
weightage than that of most likely point (tm). Thus, the expected
or mean (te or µ) time of an activity, that is also the weighted
average of three time estimates, is computed as the arithmetic
mean of (to + tp)/2 and 2 tm.

10. PROJECT SCHEDULING WITH UNCERTAIN ACTIVITY TIMES
dispersion /variation in the activity time
values based on the concept of normal
distribution where 99 per cent of the
area under normal curve falls within ±
3σ from the mean or fall within the
range approximately 6 standard
deviation in length. Therefore, the
interval (t o, tp) or range (t p – t o) is
assumed to enclose about 6
standard deviations of a symmetric
distribution. Thus, if σi is the standard
deviation of the duration of activity i,
then

11. Variance of the total critical path’s duration
If duration of activities is a random variable, then the variance of the
total critical path’s duration is obtained by adding variances of individual
critical activities. Suppose σc is the standard deviation of the critical
path. Then

12. Estimation of Project Completion Time

13. Activities
A B C D E F G H I
1-2 1-3 1-4 2-5 2-6 3-6 4-7 5-7 6-7
Network diagram represents activities associated with a project
Optimistic
time (to)
5 18 26 16 15 6 7 7 3
Pessimistic
time (tp)
10 22 40 20 25 12 12 9 5
Most Likely
time (tm)
8 20 33 18 20 9 10 8 4
Determine the following-
(a) Expected completion time and variance of each activity
(b) The earliest and latest expected completion times of each event.
(c) The critical path.
(d) The probability of expected completion time of the project if the original
scheduled time of completing the project is 41.5 weeks.
(e) The duration of the project that will have 95 per cent chance of being
completed.

14. Z-value confidence interval

15. THANK
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