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28 September 2012
AgendaBackgroundCurrent state of analyticsAnalytics 2.0Summary
Lloyd Melnick
fiveonenine games
Publishing and Developing Launched publishing program in AugustCampaign Story launched &Several projects in the pipeline
More stars than the Miami Heat Ex-Studio Head of EA’s       Gardens of Time    North Carolina office      Shutter Islan...
Analytics and gaming                       Statistical Tools                       Predictive Models                      ...
Standard Dashboard Where your game currently is Kontagent, Mixpanel, Honeytracks, Flurry, Apsalar, Co  llectTM & Measure...
Ad hoc reports Addresses immediate concerns and issues Kontagent, Mixpanel, Honeytracks
Query/drill down Where exactly is the problem? Kontagent, Mixpanel, Honeytracks, CollectTM & MeasureTM (by GamesAnalytics)
Alerts What actions are needed
STATISTICAL Analysis     Correlations & CHI SQ    Are there statistically significant associations among factors   T-tes...
Forecasting • Time Series Analysis  •   How much revenue will we bring in next quarter?  •   How many users will we have i...
Predictive Modeling  Logistic Regressions, Decision Trees, etc.  •   Who is more likely to monetize?  •   Who is more lik...
Data mining • Clustering (Segmentation) Analysis  •   Are there clear “segments” among our users that could be      approa...
Simulation • Monte–Carlo Simulation  •   How long does our game take on average?  •   How many turns on average will the p...
Optimization • Price Optimization   •   What is the optimal price for the virtual goods? • Linear Programing   •   What is...
Analytics design – most importantmetric           CUSTOMER            LIFETIME             VALUE                          ...
Case Study- ResultsOur partner GamesAnalytics for BBC Worldwide Retention rate improved by 95% Revenues increased by 40%...
SummaryAnalytics give you a great picture ofwhere your game isThey help make production andmarketing decisionThey can help...
Thank youAren ArakelyanAren.Arakelyan@fiveoneninegames.comLloyd MelnickLloyd.melnick@fiveoneninegames.comhttp://lloydmelni...
A Case for Predictive Analytics - Aren Arakelyan - Fiveonenine games
A Case for Predictive Analytics - Aren Arakelyan - Fiveonenine games
A Case for Predictive Analytics - Aren Arakelyan - Fiveonenine games
A Case for Predictive Analytics - Aren Arakelyan - Fiveonenine games
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A Case for Predictive Analytics - Aren Arakelyan - Fiveonenine games

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A Case for Predictive Analytics - Aren Arakelyan - Fiveonenine games

  1. 1. 28 September 2012
  2. 2. AgendaBackgroundCurrent state of analyticsAnalytics 2.0Summary
  3. 3. Lloyd Melnick
  4. 4. fiveonenine games
  5. 5. Publishing and Developing Launched publishing program in AugustCampaign Story launched &Several projects in the pipeline
  6. 6. More stars than the Miami Heat Ex-Studio Head of EA’s  Gardens of Time North Carolina office  Shutter Island Member founding  City of Wonder management team at  Mortimer Beckett Motricity and Appia  Big City Adventure Team lead at RIM’s NC studio  Madden 3DS 20 year veteran of  Nascar Kart Racing Wii IBM/Microsoft/Citrix  Woodland Heroes GM Europe and LATAM at Disney/Playdom
  7. 7. Analytics and gaming Statistical Tools Predictive Models Data Mining In-Game Analytics Tools 9
  8. 8. Standard Dashboard Where your game currently is Kontagent, Mixpanel, Honeytracks, Flurry, Apsalar, Co llectTM & MeasureTM (by GamesAnalytics) SWRVE & other A/B testing solutions
  9. 9. Ad hoc reports Addresses immediate concerns and issues Kontagent, Mixpanel, Honeytracks
  10. 10. Query/drill down Where exactly is the problem? Kontagent, Mixpanel, Honeytracks, CollectTM & MeasureTM (by GamesAnalytics)
  11. 11. Alerts What actions are needed
  12. 12. STATISTICAL Analysis  Correlations & CHI SQ Are there statistically significant associations among factors  T-tests & ANOVA Are there statistically significant differences among groups in usage or monetization  Regression Analysis What are the factors (i.e.: gender, age) “significantly” impact revenue and by how much?  Outlier Analysis Are there users playing or monetizing far differently than the most?  Excel, R, SAS, SPSS, STATA, SWRVE, PredictTM 15
  13. 13. Forecasting • Time Series Analysis • How much revenue will we bring in next quarter? • How many users will we have in the future (near term)? • What will the load on the servers be? • Excel, R, SAS, SPSS, STATA 16
  14. 14. Predictive Modeling  Logistic Regressions, Decision Trees, etc. • Who is more likely to monetize? • Who is more likely to react to in game messaging?  Survival Analysis • What will be the lifetime of a user? • How long will it take for users to monetize? (time to first purchase) • What factors impact the retention of the users  R, SAS, SPSS, STATA, PredictTM 17
  15. 15. Data mining • Clustering (Segmentation) Analysis • Are there clear “segments” among our users that could be approached differently? • Association Analysis • Are there items that sell “together”? • SAS Enterprise Miner, SPSS Modeler, Weka, Playnomics, HoneyLizer, PredictTM 18
  16. 16. Simulation • Monte–Carlo Simulation • How long does our game take on average? • How many turns on average will the players need to finish? • What happens if we tweak the rules of the game? • Excel, R, Risk Solver, SAS, SPSS, STATA
  17. 17. Optimization • Price Optimization • What is the optimal price for the virtual goods? • Linear Programing • What is the optimal allocation of recourses for supporting the game? • R, Risk Solver, Oracle Cristal Ball, SAS
  18. 18. Analytics design – most importantmetric CUSTOMER LIFETIME VALUE 21
  19. 19. Case Study- ResultsOur partner GamesAnalytics for BBC Worldwide Retention rate improved by 95% Revenues increased by 40% Over 2m registrations Ranked 2nd in App Store
  20. 20. SummaryAnalytics give you a great picture ofwhere your game isThey help make production andmarketing decisionThey can help to shape up fact basedstrategy
  21. 21. Thank youAren ArakelyanAren.Arakelyan@fiveoneninegames.comLloyd MelnickLloyd.melnick@fiveoneninegames.comhttp://lloydmelnick.com/

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