Space policy space centers of gravity-unclassified
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How to fight and win the next space war.
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Space policy space centers of gravity-unclassified
- 1. UNCLASSIFIED 06/30/14 08:19 PM Szymanski UNCLASSIFIED Page 1 of 13 Pages Space Policy Issues - Space Centers of Gravity - 3 June, 2014
- 2. UNCLASSIFIED 06/30/14 08:19 PM Szymanski UNCLASSIFIED Page 2 of 13 Pages Space Centers of Gravity Model Based On Col John Warden’s (Checkmate) 5-Ring COG Model Space Equivalent 5-Ring COG Model Space Systems Strategic Targeting Is Similar to Terrestrial Targeting Strategies
- 3. UNCLASSIFIED 06/30/14 08:19 PM Szymanski UNCLASSIFIED Page 3 of 13 Pages Space Centers Of Gravity - Strategic COG (1) - Launch Corridors GEO Belt Sectors Above AO Atlantic/Pacific COMM Relay Points Sun-Synchronous LEO Orbits GEO Transfer Orbits Earth-Lunar Orbits Space Launch Facilities Petrochemical Facilities Producing Rocket Fuel Terrestrial-Based Space Telemetry & Control Systems Space-Related Command Centers Space-Related Commanders
- 4. UNCLASSIFIED 06/30/14 08:19 PM Szymanski UNCLASSIFIED Page 4 of 13 Pages Space Centers Of Gravity - Strategic COG (2) - Terrestrial-Based Space Weapon Systems Space-Based Space Weapon Systems Terrestrial-Based Space Surveillance Systems Space-Based Space Surveillance Systems Space Weather Systems Terrestrial-Based Satellite Heavy Communications Terminals Space Technicians Space Scientists Electric Grid Serving Ground Space Facilities Roads, Bridges, Tunnels & Passes Serving Ground Space Facilities Space Design & Manufacturing Facilities Space-Related INTEL Centers Air Force Satellite Control Network (AFSCN)
- 5. UNCLASSIFIED 06/30/14 08:19 PM Szymanski UNCLASSIFIED Page 5 of 13 Pages Space Centers Of Gravity - Strategic COG (3) - Leader's Confidence In Their New Space Technologies Blue & Red Side Political Will to Start & Continue a Space War Key Phases of the Battle Pre-Conflict Use of Space War Just Before Major Terrestrial Offenses Just Before the End of the Conflict Space-Related Decision Cycle Times (OODA Loops) Knowledge Of Classified Space Systems Existence or War Reserve Modes Status of Space Forces Attack on Alternate Country Space Systems Blue May be Self-Deterred From Attacking Gray Space Systems Space Alliances & Treaties
- 6. UNCLASSIFIED 06/30/14 08:19 PM Szymanski UNCLASSIFIED Page 6 of 13 Pages Space Centers Of Gravity - Strategic COG (4) - Low Delta-V/Transit Time Points In Space to Reach High Value Targets Points In Space With High/Low Coverage From Space Surveillance Assets Regions of Space & Time With Advantageous Solar Phase Angles Times of Solar Alignment Interference to Communications (Two Times a Year for 4-8 Minutes for Geosynchronous Satellites) Gravity Wells at GEO Disposal Orbits Where Dead Satellites Tend to Group Space Radiation Belts Times of High Solar Storm Activity Zones Outside a Satellite's or Constellation's Collective Sensors' Field Of Regard
- 7. UNCLASSIFIED 06/30/14 08:19 PM Szymanski UNCLASSIFIED Page 7 of 13 Pages Space Centers Of Gravity - Strategic COG (5) - Times When Adversary Military Is Concentrating on In-theater Actions, & Is Less Aware of Space-related Actions on the Other Side of the Globe On-Orbit Spares or Launch Replenishment or Ability to Reconstitute Space Capability With Terrestrial Systems Antipodal Nodes 180 Degrees From Launch Sites Around the World Other Satellites Being Launched on the Same Booster Manned Launch (Shuttle, Space Station) of Satellites Times When a Full Moon Degrades an Adversary's Ability to Optically Track Dim Space Objects From Terrestrial Locations
- 8. UNCLASSIFIED 06/30/14 08:19 PM Szymanski UNCLASSIFIED Page 8 of 13 Pages Space Centers Of Gravity - Tactical COG (1) - Space Tactics, Techniques & Procedures Initial Satellite Checkout After Launch or Orbital Insertion GEO Satellites Changing Orbital Position Periods of Solar Eclipse for Satellites Periods When a Satellite Has a Low Battery Charge Approach Trajectories Outside the Field Of Regard Of the Target's On- Board Sensors Approach Trajectories When the Sun/Moon/Earth Is In the Background of a Target's Sensors Approach Trajectories Outside Normally Employed Orbits
- 9. UNCLASSIFIED 06/30/14 08:19 PM Szymanski UNCLASSIFIED Page 9 of 13 Pages Space Centers Of Gravity - Tactical COG (2) - Near a Satellite's Thrusters Near a Satellite's High Power Antennas Anti-Satellite Launch/Attack Rate Just After Loss of Contact With Adversary Satellite Ground Controllers Just After Loss of Contact With Adversary Space Surveillance Assets Times of Cloud Cover/Weather/Natural Disasters for Terrestrial-Based Space Weapons Systems Times of Cloud Cover/Weather/Natural Disasters for Terrestrial-Based Space Surveillance Systems Times When the Satellite Passes Through Space Radiation Belts Communications or Telemetry Frequencies That Can be Jammed or Spoofed
- 10. UNCLASSIFIED 06/30/14 08:19 PM Szymanski UNCLASSIFIED Page 10 of 13 Pages Example Attack Locations Optimized for Space Surveillance Some Parts of a Satellite's Orbit May Be More Vulnerable than Others
- 11. UNCLASSIFIED 06/30/14 08:19 PM Szymanski UNCLASSIFIED Page 11 of 13 Pages Threat Envelope Chart (TEC) View 1 Some Orbits are Easier to Maneuver to Than Others
- 12. UNCLASSIFIED 06/30/14 08:19 PM Szymanski UNCLASSIFIED Page 12 of 13 Pages Example Threat Envelope View 2 Circle Size Denotes Amount of Delta-V to Reach Target From This Position In Space Color of Circle Denotes Amount of Time to Reach Target From This Position In Space Red Asterisk Denotes Location of Target Black Boxes Denote Locations of Live Satellites Gray Boxes Denote Locations of Dead Space Objects Some Regions of Space May be More Threatening than Others
- 13. UNCLASSIFIED 06/30/14 08:19 PM Szymanski UNCLASSIFIED Page 13 of 13 Pages Example Threat Envelope View 3
Notas del editor
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- (U) Space Centers of Gravity Model Col John Warden’s 5-Ring Center Of Gravity (COG) Model was used in Desert Storm as part of the Checkmate targeting cell in the Pentagon. This same structure used for terrestrial systems targeting (green text) has been extended to include concepts for space systems targeting (blue text). Essentially, both these models state that the closer to the center one gets in targeting, the better to enable toppling over the whole structure and degrading an adversary’s ability to wage war. Targeting the leadership structure can cause confusion and delay in responding to military actions, but ultimately new leadership takes hold. The best way to target leadership is to, in reality, target their perceptions and mindset as to the status of their own military, the opposing side’s military and intentions, and as to what is their best Courses Of Action (COA’s).
- (U) Example Space Centers of Gravity This is a partial list of some of the more unique Centers Of Gravity (COG) associated with space systems and space control. These were derived from considerable strategic thought based on extensive space control analyses over 30 years and the unique characteristics of the space environment. It should be noted that a Center Of Gravity can be a physical location (a mountain pass or crowded satellite orbit) or a weakness in strategic doctrine concerning the use of space systems, etc. AFDD 2-2.1 2, (August 2004) states that a Center Of Gravity is defined as “Those characteristics, capabilities or sources of power from which a military force derives its freedom of action, physical strength or will to fight. Also called COGs. (JP 1-02) [In Air Force terms, a COG is a primary source of moral (i.e., political leadership, social dynamics, cultural values, or religion) or physical (i.e., military, industrial, or economic) strength from which a nation, alliance, or military force in a given strategic, operational, or tactical context derives its freedom of action, physical strength, or will to fight]”.
- (U) Example Space Centers of Gravity This is a partial list of some of the more unique Centers Of Gravity (COG) associated with space systems and space control. These were derived from considerable strategic thought based on extensive space control analyses over 30 years and the unique characteristics of the space environment. It should be noted that a Center Of Gravity can be a physical location (a mountain pass or crowded satellite orbit) or a weakness in strategic doctrine concerning the use of space systems, etc. AFDD 2-2.1 2, (August 2004) states that a Center Of Gravity is defined as “Those characteristics, capabilities or sources of power from which a military force derives its freedom of action, physical strength or will to fight. Also called COGs. (JP 1-02) [In Air Force terms, a COG is a primary source of moral (i.e., political leadership, social dynamics, cultural values, or religion) or physical (i.e., military, industrial, or economic) strength from which a nation, alliance, or military force in a given strategic, operational, or tactical context derives its freedom of action, physical strength, or will to fight]”.
- (U) Example Space Centers of Gravity This is a partial list of some of the more unique Centers Of Gravity (COG) associated with space systems and space control. These were derived from considerable strategic thought based on extensive space control analyses over 35 years and the unique characteristics of the space environment. It should be noted that a Center Of Gravity can be a physical location (a mountain pass or crowded satellite orbit) or a weakness in strategic doctrine concerning the use of space systems, etc. AFDD 2-2.1 2, (August 2004) states that a Center Of Gravity is defined as “Those characteristics, capabilities or sources of power from which a military force derives its freedom of action, physical strength or will to fight. Also called COGs. (JP 1-02) [In Air Force terms, a COG is a primary source of moral (i.e., political leadership, social dynamics, cultural values, or religion) or physical (i.e., military, industrial, or economic) strength from which a nation, alliance, or military force in a given strategic, operational, or tactical context derives its freedom of action, physical strength, or will to fight]”.
- (U) Example Space Centers of Gravity This is a partial list of some of the more unique Centers Of Gravity (COG) associated with space systems and space control. These were derived from considerable strategic thought based on extensive space control analyses over 30 years and the unique characteristics of the space environment. It should be noted that a Center Of Gravity can be a physical location (a mountain pass or crowded satellite orbit) or a weakness in strategic doctrine concerning the use of space systems, etc. AFDD 2-2.1 2, (August 2004) states that a Center Of Gravity is defined as “Those characteristics, capabilities or sources of power from which a military force derives its freedom of action, physical strength or will to fight. Also called COGs. (JP 1-02) [In Air Force terms, a COG is a primary source of moral (i.e., political leadership, social dynamics, cultural values, or religion) or physical (i.e., military, industrial, or economic) strength from which a nation, alliance, or military force in a given strategic, operational, or tactical context derives its freedom of action, physical strength, or will to fight]”.
- (U) Example Space Centers of Gravity This is a partial list of some of the more unique Centers Of Gravity (COG) associated with space systems and space control. These were derived from considerable strategic thought based on extensive space control analyses over 30 years and the unique characteristics of the space environment. It should be noted that a Center Of Gravity can be a physical location (a mountain pass or crowded satellite orbit) or a weakness in strategic doctrine concerning the use of space systems, etc. AFDD 2-2.1 2, (August 2004) states that a Center Of Gravity is defined as “Those characteristics, capabilities or sources of power from which a military force derives its freedom of action, physical strength or will to fight. Also called COGs. (JP 1-02) [In Air Force terms, a COG is a primary source of moral (i.e., political leadership, social dynamics, cultural values, or religion) or physical (i.e., military, industrial, or economic) strength from which a nation, alliance, or military force in a given strategic, operational, or tactical context derives its freedom of action, physical strength, or will to fight]”.
- (U) Example Space Centers of Gravity This is a partial list of some of the more unique Centers Of Gravity (COG) associated with space systems and space control. These were derived from considerable strategic thought based on extensive space control analyses over 30 years and the unique characteristics of the space environment. It should be noted that a Center Of Gravity can be a physical location (a mountain pass or crowded satellite orbit) or a weakness in strategic doctrine concerning the use of space systems, etc. AFDD 2-2.1 2, (August 2004) states that a Center Of Gravity is defined as “Those characteristics, capabilities or sources of power from which a military force derives its freedom of action, physical strength or will to fight. Also called COGs. (JP 1-02) [In Air Force terms, a COG is a primary source of moral (i.e., political leadership, social dynamics, cultural values, or religion) or physical (i.e., military, industrial, or economic) strength from which a nation, alliance, or military force in a given strategic, operational, or tactical context derives its freedom of action, physical strength, or will to fight]”.
- (U) Example Space Centers of Gravity This is a partial list of some of the more unique Centers Of Gravity (COG) associated with space systems and space control. These were derived from considerable strategic thought based on extensive space control analyses over 30 years and the unique characteristics of the space environment. It should be noted that a Center Of Gravity can be a physical location (a mountain pass or crowded satellite orbit) or a weakness in strategic doctrine concerning the use of space systems, etc. AFDD 2-2.1 2, (August 2004) states that a Center Of Gravity is defined as “Those characteristics, capabilities or sources of power from which a military force derives its freedom of action, physical strength or will to fight. Also called COGs. (JP 1-02) [In Air Force terms, a COG is a primary source of moral (i.e., political leadership, social dynamics, cultural values, or religion) or physical (i.e., military, industrial, or economic) strength from which a nation, alliance, or military force in a given strategic, operational, or tactical context derives its freedom of action, physical strength, or will to fight]”.
- (U) Example Attack Locations This chart shows where on the earth a potential satellite attack may occur. If one assumes that an attack will occur where the US has the fewest space surveillance assets to monitor potential attacking space objects, then the redder the above map is, the fewer US space surveillance assets exist, geographic-wise. The bluest portions of the map are a geographic average of the locations of US space surveillance assets. For illustrative purposes, the redder portions of the map give the geographic average of SPOT ground data receiver and Tracking, Telemetry & Control (TT&C) stations.
- (U) Threat Envelope Chart (TEC) View 1 The software tool called SPACE (Space Power Analysis Computational Elements) is used to conduct Monte Carlo calculations for satellite maneuvers. This chart illustrates calculations for threat envelopes surrounding a potentially targeted satellite (red asterisk in center), assuming the attacking satellite is using a low thrust maneuver profile. Spreading out from the targeted satellite into regions of space are locations (circles) where potential space control satellites can maneuver from to close approach the satellite target. The size of each circle corresponds to the amount of delta-v that is required to rendezvous with the targeted satellite. The color of each circle corresponds to the amount of time it would take to achieve this rendezvous. Thus, higher inclination attacking satellites would need to expend more fuel and take more time to reach the targeted satellite. This implies a bigger attacking satellite that can carry more fuel, thus being more easily detected when initiating attack orbital maneuvers, or the defending satellite has more time to detect and prepare for attack. If one can assume maximum sizes of threat satellites, and thus maximum delta-v constraints, then these can also be plotted on this chart to give an accurate picture of how much attack warning time does the targeted satellite have, and where does it have to look in space to detect preparations for attack. (U) The black boxes towards the center of the chart are actual locations of current live satellites in relation to the targeted satellite (in flattened space), and the gray boxes denote actual locations of dead space objects. If one assumes that an attack would come from a known live satellite, then the defending satellite would need to look towards the black boxes for suspicious activities while they are initiating attack. If one assumes the attack would come from a supposedly “dead” space object, then defensive sensors should concentrate on the gray box locations. Otherwise, if one is concerned about an attack coming from “out of the blue,” then attack detection sensors must concentrate on successive concentric lower probability fans around the defended satellite based on assumed attacking object size, timeliness of detection, and the defending satellite timeline for response.
- (U) Example Threat Envelope View 2 This is a zoom-in of the previous chart that gives a better view of the threat envelopes and associated space objects, with annotations.
- (U) Example Threat Envelope View 3 This is a zoom-in of the previous chart that gives a better view of the live (black boxes) and dead (gray boxes) space objects.