State of the District - Presentation to Stratford-on-Avon Local Strategic Partnership (Nov 2012)
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Presentation to Stratford-on-Avon LSP, providing an overview of key demographic, economic and social issues facing the area. Jointly delivered by Warwickshire Observatory and Stratford-on-Avon District Council
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State of the District - Presentation to Stratford-on-Avon Local Strategic Partnership (Nov 2012)
- 1. An overview of key demographic, economic and social trends in Stratford-on-Avon District November 2012 Spencer Payne Warwickshire Observatory Simon Purfield Stratford-on-Avon District Council
- 2. Demographics Warks Avg. • 15% aged 70+ • 18,000 in 2010 • 37,000 by 2035 • More aged 70+ now than aged 20 - 34 Link to data
- 3. Economic Dependency • Who will generate wealth in the future? – In 2010, there were 0.64 dependents (children and older people) for every person of working age in Stratford-on-Avon 0.29 children + 0.35 older people – By 2035, the figure will be around 0.92 0.31 children + 0.61 older people – The national figure will be 0.69 0.30 children + 0.39 older people
- 4. Job Availability • Can vacancies be filled? Occupation Vacancies % Jobseekers % Managers and Senior Officials 25 1.3 70 7.4 Professional Occupations 25 1.3 35 3.7 Associate Prof. & Technical Occupations 81 4.1 70 7.4 Administrative & Secretarial Occupations 95 4.8 110 11.6 Skilled Trades Occupations 113 5.8 80 8.4 Personal Service Occupations 1,013 51.6 55 5.8 Sales and Customer Service occupations 177 9.0 300 31.6 Process, Plant and Machine Operatives 150 7.6 60 6.3 Elementary Occupations 283 14.4 150 17.9
- 5. Housing Affordability • Can people on low incomes afford to live in Stratford-on-Avon? Lowest quartile house prices Lowest quartile annual incomes
- 6. Stratford-on-Avon in context… • Will face a challenge competing for resources
- 7. Inequalities • One district, many different experiences… Indicator Alcester North Harbury /Conway Population 1,420 1,500 Unemployed 35 < 10 Benefit Claimants 100 25 NEET 4 1 At risk of falling into poverty 29% < 5% Pension Credit Claimant Rate 29% 6% Anti-social Behaviour Rate 46 per 1,000 pop. 7 per 1,000 pop. Good GCSEs 70% 100% Child Poverty Rate 20% 3%
- 8. Access to Services Barriers to Housing and Services (Measures the physical proximity of local services, e.g. distance to GP surgery, supermarket, primary school, Post Office and issues relating to access to housing such as affordability) Ranked within the top 10% of most deprived areas nationally 195th – Ladbroke & Priors 276th – Long Compton 836th – Welford 900th – Burton Dassett 1,434th – Brailes 1,874th – Bardon 1,894th – Tanworth 2,033rd – Claverdon 2,051st – Ettington 2,220th – Aston Cantlow
- 9. Fuel Poverty No longer at the bottom of the table … No. of Fuel Poor % of Fuel Poor LA Name All Households Households Households North Warwickshire 25,813 5,074 19.7% Nuneaton and Bedworth 51,961 10,124 19.5% Rugby 40,714 8,043 19.8% Stratford-on-Avon 50,714 9,918 19.6% Warwick 58,464 9,898 16.9% Warwickshire 227,666 43,057 18.9% West Midlands 2,245,848 484,870 21.6% 31% of residents struggle to pay fuel bills, up from 21% in 2010 24% claim the proportion of income & benefits used to pay fuel bills is between 11% and 20%, 17% say over 21%
- 10. State of the District Debate Feedback from State of the District Debate 2012 Major issues • More affordable housing • Level of frequency of public transport • Access to services Other issues raised • Planning enforcement, wind farms, parking in Stratford town, grass cutting, street lighting, fuel poverty, flooding, provision of health services
- 11. Young People’s Views Key Points from SDC Young Peoples “Have Your Say” Survey 2012 (1) • In ideal world want a low level of crime (45%), a good health service (43%), good shopping (38%), somewhere to enjoy sports & leisure (38%), activities designed for their age group (38%) • More satisfied with sports and leisure than adults, but less with parks and open spaces • More likely to say that anti-social behaviour is a problem than adults • Feel more unsafe after dark than adults – people taking drugs, not knowing what to expect and people hanging around on streets
- 12. Young Peoples Views Key Points from SDC Young Peoples “Have Your Say” Survey 2012 (2) • 64% have had an alcoholic drink, of whom 40% claim to have been drunk in last 4 weeks • 12% claim to have taken drugs • Do not feel have much influence over decisions • Would like to know more on how tackling anti-social behaviour • Increasingly feel that people from different backgrounds get on well together • OVERALL want better job opportunities (62%), better public transport (47%) and more youth facilities (41%)
- 13. What’s Next… Coming Up Soon - we will be rich with new data! From December 11th more data from the 2011 Census Autumn 2012 Stratford DC Residents’ Survey
- 14. Further information • Blog: http://warksobservatory.wordpress.com/ • Website: http://www.warwickshireobservatory.org/ • Quality of Life in Warwickshire 2012/13: http://bit.ly/QualityofLifeinWarwickshire • Email: research@warwickshire.gov.uk • Phone: 01926 418066 • Stratford DC Consultation & Customer Insight Unit • Phone: 01789 260118
Notas del editor
- We will spend a few minutes taking you through some of what we think are the key issues affecting the District in 2012. The material has been brought together from a wide range of sources, and the time we have today will only enable us to draw attention to some of the headlines. We have provided some contact details at the end and links to more detailed material. The first part of the presentation, from the Warwickshire Observatory, picks up on some of the key messages specific to Stratford-on-Avon District from our Quality of Life in Warwickshire Report and other pieces of research. It highlights some key facts and figures; we have steered away from offering opinion and have focused on presenting the stats. The second half of the presentation, from Stratford-on-Avon District Council, covers some of the more qualitative material gathered from residents of the district; responses to consultations, feedback Community Forums and so on. We’re hopefully going to tell you things you already know! As organisations operating in this area you will be seeing the implications of these findings in your day to day activity. This presentation will hopefully add some evidence to your first hand experiences. It’s important to appreciate that these issues are all linked. Changes in one issue – in either negative or positive ways - can impact on other areas. Also, we need to emphasise at the outset that this presentation shouldn’t be regarded as painting a gloomy outlook for the district. We have tried to focus on areas for attention, and it needs to be stressed that of course in many ways Stratford-on-Avon is a fantastic place to live and work.
- We’ll start with a basic – and hugely obvious – point about the demographic profile of this district. Currently, around 15% of the population is aged over 70 in the district – the average across the rest of the county is 12%. Over the next 20 – 25 years we will see significant demographic change; people are living longer (although not necessarily healthily for these extra years) and the profile of the district will change. By 2035, the number of people aged over 70 will have doubled. The reason for highlighting this is not the figures themselves, but the implications of them. Many services are going to face increasing pressures… Health and social care Public transport Access to services Servicing and growing the local economy
- If services struggle to meet demand, or even decide not to, the onus may shift to families, volunteers, the third sector, the ‘big society’. But who will this be in twenty years’ time? Within 20 years we will almost have a situation where there is one person of working age for every child or older person. And this doesn’t account for those people of working age who aren’t actually in employment. Who will be driving the economy and helping to generate wealth? What does an average 18 year old do in Stratford-on-Avon? Leave the area to go to university. How many return, for the long term, once they’ve completed their studies? Does the district have the kind of jobs that graduates want? Notes: Children = 0-15 Older = 65+
- So, what types of jobs are currently available in the district and who is looking for them? Well the good news is that the district had 1,960 vacancies advertised through JobCentres in September and only 1,000 people looking for work. However, there is a huge mismatch between the jobs being sought and the jobs that are available. More than half of the jobs being advertised are in the ‘personal service’ occupations. These include jobs like care for the elderly and sick, child care, hairdressers, housekeeping and many of the jobs linked to the tourism industry (the number of jobs providing care probably shouldn’t be a huge surprise given the age structure we’ve just seen). However, when we compare these vacancies against the usual or sought occupations of jobseekers we see huge discrepancies. Just 55 people living in the district are seeking to work in the care sector. More generally, we see a situation where there are not enough jobs for the people seeking senior, well-paid employment, and not enough jobseekers interested in the vacancies that exist. One outcome of this will be that the jobs go to people who don’t currently live in the District. The situation where many people need to work outside the district to get the type of job they want will persist. This brings us on to the issue of housing. Note: Emphasise this is crude assessment – some nuances to the data
- We’ve just seen that most of the jobs available in the district are relatively low paid So can the people who take these jobs afford to live locally? How can we drive down unemployment if people cannot afford to live in the area in the types of jobs being advertised? Housing affordability is the one area in our Quality of Life Report where Stratford-on-Avon flags up as ‘red’ in the traffic light system On one hand this might be seen in a positive light – high house prices reflect desirable places to live. It reflects wealth and high standards of living. But what does it mean for those people working in key worker occupations? The district is going to need to strong labour market for the care sector, but it is unlikely these jobs will be filled by many local people. This chart presents the ratio between the average price of housing (for the cheapest quartile of housing) and the average income for people in the lowest quartile. A person earning a low income (for example our care workers) would need the equivalent of ten year’s worth of income to afford just the cheapest housing, a far higher ratio than both the county and national average. Furthermore, the situation has deteriorated over the past decade. It levelled off during the start of the recession as house prices stalled, but clearly we have seen a situation where house price growth has outstripped growth in earnings. This only exasperates the situation for the lowest paid workers in the economy. Hopefully we’ve been able to demonstrate the linkages between these themes. But how do we address them?
- Well it is going to be a challenge. When people think about Stratford-on-Avon District they, rightfully so, think about an extremely pleasant, largely rural place to live with little deprivation. Stratford-on-Avon has no areas in the top 30% most deprived areas in the country; other Warwickshire districts do. So when the district is seeking support it needs to go beyond the relatively crude district-level statistics and drill down to identify local areas of need.
- There isn’t a uniform experience across the district. There are pockets of need across the district, so local agencies need to make sure resources are targeted effectively and in the right places. We have picked out two contrasting areas to try and illustrate the point. So, the message here is that there are areas of relative need within the district.
- One factor of the multiple deprivation data concerns the Barriers to Housing and Services Measures the physical proximity of local services, e.g. distance to GP surgery, supermarket, primary school, Post Office and issues relating to access to housing such as affordability 17 areas out of the 71 we have are in the top 10% nationally and listed here are the top 10 – these are pretty well spread over the district area.
- Figures from Dept of Energy & Climate Change 2010 One of the issues for the District is fuel poverty especially in light of more increases in prices above inflation. Just under one in five of households are fuel poor in Stratford District we had the highest of the five, now third in the table – above the county average but below the region. In SDCs Spring Citizens’ Panel (446 residents answered the question) 31% of residents claim to struggle to pay fuel bills, up from 21% in 2010 24% claim the proportion of income & benefits used to pay fuel bills is between 11% and 20%, 17% say over 21%
- Presentation made to all 6 Community Forums in the summer. Feedback received via SDC website, at Forums, and SDC Council debate on July 23rd.
- 922 young people completed the survey. 5 schools took part - Alcester Academy, Kineton High, Stratford upon Avon School, Southam College and Shipston High Predominantly completed by 12 to 15 year olds One in ten had a long-standing illness or disability 9% were from a non-white background
- Census data to ward and parish level will be available over the coming months. Observatory will be working on this and SDC will also be using the data extensively. Stratford DC Residents Survey - 6000 questionnaires sent out - around 1 in 9 households. We expect around 2200 questionnaires giving us the opportunity for results to locality level to be even more robust. Initial results by Christmas, full analysis by the end of January 2013.