Utah’s Demographic Transformation A View into the Future, Presentation by Pam Perlich, Bureau of Economic and Business Research

1. Utah’s Demographic Transformation
A View into the Future
Pamela S. Perlich, Ph.D. – University Of Utah
December 3, 2009
Based on a paper with the same title, available on-line: www.bebr.utah.edu

2. Utah: Trend Toward Nation
Total Fertility Rates
5.0
3.8
4.3
3.6
2.5
2.5
2.1
1.3
0
Utah U.S.
1960 2006

3. Utah: Trend Toward Nation
Household Size
6
5.17 5.27
4.5
3
3.15
2.62
1.5
0
Utah U.S.
1900 2008

4. Utah: Trend Toward Nation
Median Age
37.0
36.8
35.3
32.8
28.5
28.7
27.1
24.3
20.0
Utah U.S.
2000 2008

5. Utah: Trend Toward Nation
Minority Share
40%
34.4%
30%
20% 18.3%
11.4%
10%
1.9%
0%
Utah U.S.
1960 2008

6. U.S. Population Growth: 1900-2005
3%
High Immigration, Immigration
High Fertility Restrictions
2.4% Baby Boom
Annual Percentage Change
1.8%
Moderate Immigration,
Low Fertility
1.2%
0.6%
Flu
Epidemic Great
and WWI Depression
0%
Growth Rate
-0.6%
1900 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000

7. U.S. Population by Region: 1900-2030
150
South
Midwest
120 Northeast
West
Millions of Persons
90
60
30
0
1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000 2020
Source: U.S. Bureau of the Census 1995; 2000; 2005.

8. Utah: Net Migration, Natural
Increase, and Population Change
5%
Natural Increase
4% Net Migration
Population Change
3%
Annual Rates
2%
1%
0%
-1%
-2%
1950 1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005
Source: BEBR, University of Utah Analysis of UPEC data.

9. Utah and U.S. Annual Births
2008 US Births
U.S. Boom U.S. Echo Exceed 1957
Peak: 1957 Peak: 1990
70 5.0
Utah Births (thousands)
53 3.8
US Births (Millions)
35 2.5
Utah Echo Echo
Peak: 2010??
18 1.3
Utah Echo Peak:
Utah Boom 1980-2
Peak: 1962
0 0
1940 1945 1950 1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005
Utah US

10. Utah School Age Population:
Historical & Projected
900,000
High Economic Growth and Fertility
2002 Baseline
Low Economic Growth and Fertility
2005 GOPB Baseline
750,000
600,000
450,000
300,000
1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030
Source: Perlich and Reeve, “The Coming Boom in Utah’s School Age and College Age Populations,” Utah Economic and Business Review, 2002. BEBR
analysis of data from the Utah Population Estimates Committee. Births updated 2/2008.
10

11. Utah Population 18-24 Years Old:
Historical & Projected
500,000
18-24: High Economic Growth, High Fertility
18-24: Baseline
18-24: Low Economic Growth, Low Fertility
Cumulative Births 18-24 years prior
Bureau of Census 2005
400,000 GOPB 2005
300,000
Age wave hits
200,000 college ages
2016 - 2025
100,000
1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030
Source: Perlich and Reeve, “The Coming Boom in Utah’s School Age and College Age Populations,” Utah Economic and Business Review, 2002. BEBR
analysis of data from the Utah Population Estimates Committee. Births updated 2/2008.

12. U.S. Foreign Born Population:
1900–2008
20% 38.1 40
Foreign Born Share of Total Population
Share Millions
Number of Foreign Born (Millions)
14.7%
15% 30
12.6%
10% 20
5% 10
0% 0
1900 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2008
Sources: Bureau of the Census (decennial Censuses and 2007 American Community Survey), Pew Hispanic Center, BEBR Calculations.

13. Utah Foreign Born Population:
1900–2008
20% 19.4% 250
226,440
17.6%
Foreign Born Share of Total Population
Number of Foreign Born (Thousands)
Share Number
200
15%
13.1%
150
10% 9.5%
8.3%
7.1% 100
6%
5% 4.3%
3.6% 3.5% 3.4% 50
2.8%
0% 0
1900 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2008
Sources: Bureau of the Census (decennial Censuses and 2007 American Community Survey), Pew Hispanic Center, BEBR Calculations.

14. Top Occupations of Utah’s Foreign Born
Assemblers & Fabricators Laborers / Material Movers,
Cooks Retail Salespersons
Maids/Housekeeping Customer Service Rep.
Construction Laborers Waiters and Waitresses
Janitors Truck Drivers
Production Workers Carpenters
Cashiers Post-secondary Teachers
Grounds Maintenance Workers Misc. Agricultural Workers
Source: U.S. Bureau of the Census, Census 2000, 5% PUMS.

15. Top Occupations Concentration Ratios
of Utah’s Foreign Born
Medical Scientists Maids and Housekeepers
Packaging Machine Operators Fence Erectors
Plasterers & Stucco Masons Sewing Machine Operators
Chefs and Head Cooks Misc. Assemblers
Misc. Media Workers Woodworking Mach. Ops.
Grinding, etc. Machine Ops. Astronomers & Physicists
Dishwashers Drywall Installers
Baggage Porters Dancers & Choreographers
Source: U.S. Bureau of the Census, Census 2000, 5% PUMS.

16. Utah Educational Attainment by Nativity:
Males 25 Years and Older (2000)
30%
31%
College Graduate or Greater 22%
28%
18%
87%
90%
High School or Greater 62%
75%
55%
Total
13% Native Born
10%
Less than High School 38% Foreign Born
25% Naturalized
46% Not a Citizen
Source: Bureau of Economic and Business
Research - Analysis of Census 2000, 5% PUMS
0% 23% 45% 68% 90%

17. Utah Educational Attainment by Nativity:
Females 25 Years and Older (2000)
22%
22%
College Graduate or Greater 21%
21%
21%
88%
90%
High School or Greater 67%
78%
60%
Total
12% Native Born
10%
Less than High School 33% Foreign Born
22% Naturalized
40% Not a Citizen
Source: Bureau of Economic and Business
Research - Analysis of Census 2000, 5% PUMS
0% 25% 50% 75% 100%

18. Utah’s Foreign Born Population: 1900 v. 2007
Northern America
5% Africa
Oceania 2%
Europe 3%
95%
Europe
11%
Latin America
63%
Asia
Asia 18%
2.5%
Northern America
2.5%
2007
1900

19. Minority Share of the Population:
U.S., State of Utah, Salt Lake County
60%
54%
49%
48% 45%
US
40% 41%
Salt Lake
37%
36% State of Utah 34% 35% 34%
31% 32%
27%
24% 24% 30%
24% 20% 27%
19% 25%
17%
22%
12% 11%
10% 10% 10% 11% 11% 10% 18.3%19%
12% 8% 15%
5%
1% 2% 1% 2% 1% 1% 1% 8% 9%
6%
0% 2% 2% 2% 2% 1% 2% 2%
1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000 2010 2030 2050
Sources: Bureau of the Census, Gibson and Jung (2002), Perlich (2002), BEBR

20. Minority Share by Age Group:
Utah and Salt Lake County – 2008
0.4
Salt Lake County
34.7%
33.5% Utah
29.9% 30.1% 2008 Average State Share
0.3 27.9%
26.6%
26%
25.4%
24.5% 24.7%
22.3% 22.6% 22.3% 21.8%
19.6% 19.5%
19.5%
0.2 18.3%
18.3%
16.1% 16.2%
15.3%
13.9%
12.8% 13.2% 12.7%
12.5%
11.1% 11.2%
9.8% 10.3%
9.5%
0.1 9.1%
8.4%
7.5% 7% 6.7%
0
<5 10-14 20-24 30-34 40-44 50-54 60-64 70-74 80-84
Sources: Bureau of the Census, 2008 Population Estimates.

21. U.S. Minority Share by Age Group:
2010-2050
70%
62%
2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
58%
54% 55%
52.5% 49% 50%
45% 46%
42%
40%
35% 35%
35%
29%
24%
20%
17.5%
0%
Under 18 18 through 64 65 years and Older
Source: Bureau of the Census.

22. Minority Contribution to Utah Population and
School Enrollment Growth: 2000 to 2007
Population Growth Enrollment Growth
White Non-Hispanic
Minority
35%
33%
White Non-Hispanic
67% Minority
65%

23. Educational Transition Points
100 Latina/o 100 White Elementary
Elementary Students Students
40 High School Graduates 84 High School Graduates
4 College Graduates 26 College Graduates
1 Graduate School 10 Graduate School
Completion Completion
<1 Doctorate 1 Doctorate
Source: Octavio Villalpando, University of Utah

24. Selected Age Group Projections
for State of Utah
1,200,000
Less than 5 years old 1,133,594
5 through 17 years old
60 years and older 60+ > 5-17 998,411
960,000
65 years and older 899,392
85+
720,000
480,000
422,550
240,000
177,255
0
2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050

25. Selected Age Group Projections
for State of U.S.
120,000,000
Less than 5 years old 5 through 17 years old
60 years and older 65 years and older
85+
96,000,000
2009: 60+ > 5-17
72,000,000
53,159,113
48,000,000
35,107,491
24,000,000
19,197,434
0
2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2046