Webinar Series on COVID-19 and Inequality, 11 May 2021, More information at: https://www.oecd.org/wise/events/covid-and-inequality-webinars.htm

1. Background Nature of the Shock Policy Through the Pandemic Thoughts on the Future Thank You for Listening!
Inequality in the Economic Impact of
COVID-19
Real-Time Survey Evidence
Abi Adams-Prassl
Teodora Boneva
Marta Golin
Christopher Rauh
Abi Adams-Prassl
OECD Lecture

2. Background Nature of the Shock Policy Through the Pandemic Thoughts on the Future Thank You for Listening!
Introduction
I In this talk, I will draw on the best available evidence to highlight
three themes to the current crisis:
I Ability to work from home
I Role of work arrangement
I Inequalities in the impact by gender and ethnicity
I However, not simply the nature of the shock but also the policy
response that crucial to understand cross-country differences
I I will end with some thoughts for what the pandemic means for
future labour market inequalities
Abi Adams-Prassl
OECD Lecture

3. Background Nature of the Shock Policy Through the Pandemic Thoughts on the Future Thank You for Listening!
Filling in the Gaps
I UKRI Funded Project with Teodora Boneva, Marta Golin &
Christopher Rauh: rapid response online surveys on workers in
UK, US, Germany
I Responses are geographically representative according to
region (quota-based sampling)
I To be eligible to complete the survey, individuals must have
reported being over 18, resident in the country of focus, and in
paid work in the last year
I Data collection took place in the UK on:
I Wave 1: 25th March (N = 3, 974)
I Wave 2: 9-14th April (N = 4, 931)
I Wave 3: 20-21 May (N = 3, 992)
I Wave 4: April 2021 (N = 4, 100)
Abi Adams-Prassl
OECD Lecture

4. Background Nature of the Shock Policy Through the Pandemic Thoughts on the Future Thank You for Listening!
Filling in the Gaps
I UKRI Funded Project with Teodora Boneva, Marta Golin &
Christopher Rauh: rapid response online surveys on workers in
UK, US, Germany
I Responses are geographically representative according to
region (quota-based sampling)
I To be eligible to complete the survey, individuals must have
reported being over 18, resident in the country of focus, and in
paid work in the last year
I Data collection took place in the UK on:
I Wave 1: 25th March (N = 3, 974)
I Wave 2: 9-14th April (N = 4, 931)
I Wave 3: 20-21 May (N = 3, 992)
I Wave 4: April 2021 (N = 4, 100)
Abi Adams-Prassl
OECD Lecture

5. Background Nature of the Shock Policy Through the Pandemic Thoughts on the Future Thank You for Listening!
Disruption to Traditional Data Sources
Abi Adams-Prassl
OECD Lecture

6. Background Nature of the Shock Policy Through the Pandemic Thoughts on the Future Thank You for Listening!
Research Response
Abi Adams-Prassl
OECD Lecture

7. Background Nature of the Shock Policy Through the Pandemic Thoughts on the Future Thank You for Listening!
Research Response
Abi Adams-Prassl
OECD Lecture

8. Background Nature of the Shock Policy Through the Pandemic Thoughts on the Future Thank You for Listening!
Research Response
Abi Adams-Prassl
OECD Lecture

9. Background Nature of the Shock Policy Through the Pandemic Thoughts on the Future Thank You for Listening!
Nature of the Shock
Abi Adams-Prassl
OECD Lecture

10. Background Nature of the Shock Policy Through the Pandemic Thoughts on the Future Thank You for Listening!
Ability to Work From Home Is a Big Determinant of
Whether Out of Work
0
.1
.2
.3
.4
Share
of
workers
that
lost
job
due
to
due
Corona
1
s
t
2
n
d
3
r
d
4
t
h
5
t
h
Work from home - Quintiles
US
0
.1
.2
.3
.4
Share
of
workers
that
lost
job
due
to
due
Corona
1
s
t
2
n
d
3
r
d
4
t
h
5
t
h
Work from home - Quintiles
UK
Wave 1 Wave 2
Abi Adams-Prassl
OECD Lecture

11. Background Nature of the Shock Policy Through the Pandemic Thoughts on the Future Thank You for Listening!
Working From Home is Regressive
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
Share
of
tasks
that
can
be
done
from
home
L
e
s
s
t
h
a
n
$
1
0
,
0
0
0
$
1
0
,
0
0
0
-
$
1
9
,
0
0
0
$
2
0
,
0
0
0
-
$
2
9
,
0
0
0
$
3
0
,
0
0
0
-
$
3
9
,
0
0
0
$
4
0
,
0
0
0
-
$
4
9
,
0
0
0
$
5
0
,
0
0
0
-
$
5
9
,
0
0
0
$
6
0
,
0
0
0
-
$
6
9
,
0
0
0
$
7
0
,
0
0
0
-
$
7
9
,
0
0
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$
8
0
,
0
0
0
-
$
8
9
,
0
0
0
$
9
0
,
0
0
0
+
US
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
Share
of
tasks
that
can
be
done
from
home
L
e
s
s
t
h
a
n
£
1
0
,
0
0
0
£
1
0
,
0
0
0
-
£
1
9
,
0
0
0
£
2
0
,
0
0
0
-
£
2
9
,
0
0
0
£
3
0
,
0
0
0
-
£
3
9
,
0
0
0
£
4
0
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0
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4
9
,
0
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£
6
9
,
0
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£
7
0
,
0
0
0
+
UK
Abi Adams-Prassl
OECD Lecture

12. Background Nature of the Shock Policy Through the Pandemic Thoughts on the Future Thank You for Listening!
This Has Resulted in Big Differences in Job Loss
Across Occupations
Slope -.44, R-squared .69
0
.1
.2
.3
.4
Share
that
lost
job
due
to
Coronavirus
0 .2 .4 .6 .8
Average share of tasks possible to do at home
US - Wave 2
Slope -.32, R-squared .54
0
.1
.2
.3
.4
Share
that
lost
job
due
to
Coronavirus
0 .2 .4 .6 .8
Average share of tasks possible to do at home
UK - Wave 2
Abi Adams-Prassl
OECD Lecture

13. Background Nature of the Shock Policy Through the Pandemic Thoughts on the Future Thank You for Listening!
Comparison between Job Keepers and Losers
0
.2
.4
.6
0 1-9 10-19 30-39 50-59 70-79 90-99 100
Share of tasks possible from home
Food Preparation and Serving
0
.05
.1
.15
0 1-9 10-19 30-39 50-59 70-79 90-99 100
Share of tasks possible from home
Computer and Mathematical
0
.05
.1
.15
.2
0 1-9 10-19 30-39 50-59 70-79 90-99 100
Share of tasks possible from home
Architecture and Engineering
0
.1
.2
.3
0 1-9 10-19 30-39 50-59 70-79 90-99 100
Share of tasks possible from home
Office and Administrative Support
Kept job Lost job
Abi Adams-Prassl
OECD Lecture

14. Background Nature of the Shock Policy Through the Pandemic Thoughts on the Future Thank You for Listening!
However, WFH Is Not Whole Story
0
.1
.2
.3
.4
Job
lost
due
to
due
Corona US - Early April
0
.1
.2
.3
.4
Job
lost
due
to
due
Corona
UK - Early April
Temporary Permanent Not Salaried Salaried Vary Hours Fixed Hours
Abi Adams-Prassl
OECD Lecture

15. Background Nature of the Shock Policy Through the Pandemic Thoughts on the Future Thank You for Listening!
Work Arrangements Also Affect Access to Other
Benefits
Men
Women
35years +
< 35years
Permanent
Temporary
Fixed
Varied
Above av. WFH
Below av. WFH
0 .1 .2 .3 .4 .5 .6 .7
Abi Adams-Prassl
OECD Lecture

16. Background Nature of the Shock Policy Through the Pandemic Thoughts on the Future Thank You for Listening!
Work Arrangements Also Affect Access to Other
Benefits
Abi Adams-Prassl
OECD Lecture

17. Background Nature of the Shock Policy Through the Pandemic Thoughts on the Future Thank You for Listening!
Inequality by Gender
I Financial crisis hit male-dominated industries (manufacturing,
construction) more severely
I Containment measures have hit the service sector in which
women tend to be over-represented
I We find that women are more likely to have lost their job and
been furloughed even when we control for differences in the
types of jobs that men and women do
Abi Adams-Prassl
OECD Lecture

18. Background Nature of the Shock Policy Through the Pandemic Thoughts on the Future Thank You for Listening!
Inequality by Gender
Alon et al (2020)
Abi Adams-Prassl
OECD Lecture

19. Background Nature of the Shock Policy Through the Pandemic Thoughts on the Future Thank You for Listening!
Inequality by Gender: Childcare
0
1
2
3
4
Hours
Childcare Home schooling
Men Women
US
0
1
2
3
4
Hours
Childcare Home schooling
Men Women
UK
Abi Adams-Prassl
OECD Lecture

20. Background Nature of the Shock Policy Through the Pandemic Thoughts on the Future Thank You for Listening!
Inequality by Gender: Initiate STW
Men
Women
Fathers
Mothers
Childless men
Childless women
0 .05 .1 .15 .2 .25 .3
Abi Adams-Prassl
OECD Lecture

21. Background Nature of the Shock Policy Through the Pandemic Thoughts on the Future Thank You for Listening!
Inequality by Gender: Mental Health
-0.083
-0.123
-0.013
Full Sample
Women
Men
-0.200 -0.150 -0.100 -0.050 0.000 0.050
Abi Adams-Prassl
OECD Lecture

22. Background Nature of the Shock Policy Through the Pandemic Thoughts on the Future Thank You for Listening!
Inequality by Race
Abi Adams-Prassl
OECD Lecture

23. Background Nature of the Shock Policy Through the Pandemic Thoughts on the Future Thank You for Listening!
Policy Through the Pandemic
Abi Adams-Prassl
OECD Lecture

24. Background Nature of the Shock Policy Through the Pandemic Thoughts on the Future Thank You for Listening!
Why STW?
I STW schemes subsidize labour hoarding with the aim of keeping
workers and firms together during temporary shocks
I Firm-specific human capital & hiring costs
I Greater flexibility to allow employment on a part-time basis
I Potentially lower administration burden
I Recall not credible
I To consider:
I Timing
I Prevent efficient re-allocation of resources?
I Moral hazard
I Inequalities in application
Abi Adams-Prassl
OECD Lecture

25. Background Nature of the Shock Policy Through the Pandemic Thoughts on the Future Thank You for Listening!
Key Results
I Workers without additional paid sick leave 13 p.p. less likely to
want to return to work from furlough
I Furloughed workers 15 p.p. higher likelihood of losing job after
controlling for job characteristics
I Furloughed workers who can do a larger share of their tasks
from home are significantly more pessimistic about future
employment
I Social-distancing restrictions not the only reason for a
low-productivity match? Stronger role for firm or demand factors
I Much more likely to be actively searching for a new job
Abi Adams-Prassl
OECD Lecture

26. Background Nature of the Shock Policy Through the Pandemic Thoughts on the Future Thank You for Listening!
Implications for Policy Design
I Part-time work should be allowed from the start
I Lower output losses
I Encourage investment in WFH
I Less inequity between complying & non-complying firms
I Require flexibility across different sectors & sensitivity to
disruption in schools
I Paid sick leave requires more attention
I Encourage the healthy to expose themselves & go back to wortk
I Stop the sick from going to work
I Incentives for workplace testing
Abi Adams-Prassl
OECD Lecture

27. Background Nature of the Shock Policy Through the Pandemic Thoughts on the Future Thank You for Listening!
Lives-Livelihood Frontier
Kaplan, Moll & Violante (2020)
Abi Adams-Prassl
OECD Lecture

28. Background Nature of the Shock Policy Through the Pandemic Thoughts on the Future Thank You for Listening!
Lives-Livelihood Frontier
Fetzer (2021)
Abi Adams-Prassl
OECD Lecture

29. Background Nature of the Shock Policy Through the Pandemic Thoughts on the Future Thank You for Listening!
Thoughts on the Future
Abi Adams-Prassl
OECD Lecture

30. Background Nature of the Shock Policy Through the Pandemic Thoughts on the Future Thank You for Listening!
Working from Home
Abi Adams-Prassl
OECD Lecture

31. Background Nature of the Shock Policy Through the Pandemic Thoughts on the Future Thank You for Listening!
Working from Home & Productivity
Abi Adams-Prassl
OECD Lecture

32. Background Nature of the Shock Policy Through the Pandemic Thoughts on the Future Thank You for Listening!
Working from Home & Spatial Concerns
Abi Adams-Prassl
OECD Lecture

33. Background Nature of the Shock Policy Through the Pandemic Thoughts on the Future Thank You for Listening!
Automation
Abi Adams-Prassl
OECD Lecture

34. Background Nature of the Shock Policy Through the Pandemic Thoughts on the Future Thank You for Listening!
Occupational Mobility
Abi Adams-Prassl
OECD Lecture

35. Background Nature of the Shock Policy Through the Pandemic Thoughts on the Future Thank You for Listening!
Tension in Social Security Model
Abi Adams-Prassl
OECD Lecture

36. Background Nature of the Shock Policy Through the Pandemic Thoughts on the Future Thank You for Listening!
Tension in Social Security Model
“I must be honest and point out that in devising this
scheme–in response to many calls for support– it is now
much harder to justify the inconsistent contributions between
people of different employment statuses. If we all want to
benefit equally from state support, we must all pay in equally
in future.”
UK Chancellor, March 2020
Abi Adams-Prassl
OECD Lecture

37. Background Nature of the Shock Policy Through the Pandemic Thoughts on the Future Thank You for Listening!
Thank You for Listening!
Abi Adams-Prassl
OECD Lecture