Future possibilities for utilization of solar energy serc 2009 05-20

Future possibilities for utilization of
solar energy in the European power
system
(solar power & the balanced carbon
cycle concept )
SERC Dalarna University, 2009-05-20
Stefan Larsson-Mastonstråle

CSP State of the art
Report of pre-study
Stefan Larsson et al
Dalarna University-
SERC
John Ericson solar engine, 1872

3
Linear Fresnel
TowerTrough
Different CSP technologies
This study excludes small scale CSP (<10 MWe)

4
CSP: Concentrated Solar Power
• Cheapest solar power technology available
• Dispatchable power for peaking and intermediate loads through hybridization and/or
thermal storage.
• Proven technology with 354 MW operating successfully in California for the past 15
years.
• Rapidly deployed because it uses conventional items such as glass, steel, gears,
turbines, etc.
• Water requirements similar to coal-fired plant.
What is CSP?

5
354 MW Kramer Junction 1982-
Rankine cycle efficiency: 35-37%
Solar to electricity efficiency: >20%

6
65 MW Nevada plant commissioning 2007

Parabolic through technology
7

Planned/ongoing CSP projects: World
8

Planned/ongoing CSP projects: Spain
9

System layout from Spain
12
2000h * 200 MW = 8000h * 50 MW, storage 25’000ton = 6 h * 50MW

Storage increases capacity factor and dispatchability
13
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14
Storage time [h]
Capacityfactor[%]
Sources: NREL, DOE, SunLab, Flagsol, DLR

14
Vacuum tube absorbers from Schott Gmbh

Possible by-products adding value
15
Fresh water desalination
District heating/cooling
Process heat:
•Concrete production
•Food industry
•Bleaching/chemistry
Future: Hydrogen
(Metal-metaloxide)
Toxic water cleaning
”Solar CHP” increases overall efficiency

16
Operation & Maintanance of CSP

17
• Thermal Energy Storage
– Improved Heat Transfer Fluids
• Low cost fluid with low vapor pressure and higher temperature stability to
increase solar operating temperatures (e.g. troughs from 400ºC to 550ºC).
» 16% improvement in the annual solar to electric efficiency
» 12% reduction in cost of energy
– Low cost storage at 500ºC
• Advanced Receiver Designs
– Solar Selective Coatings
• Cutting thermal emittance in half from 14% at 400ºC to 7%, while
maintaining solar absorptance at 95%
» 15% improvement in the annual solar to electric efficiency
» 15% reduction in cost
Current CSP technology development

Distance from source to load
18

Energy source development (TRANS-
CSP)
19

Import dependency (TRANS-CSP)
20

21
0,00
0,05
0,10
0,15
0,20
0,25
0,30
0 1000 2000 3000 4000 5000
Cumulative Installed Capacity (MWe)
RealLCOE2002$/kWh
1988 30-MW SEGS
Current Potential
2004 Technology, 50-MWe
Size
Optimum Location
1984 14-MW SEGS
Future Cost Potential
2004-2012
Factors Contributing to
Cost Reduction
- Scale-up 37%
- Volume Production 21%
- Technology Development
42%
1989 80-MW SEGS
• Sargent & Lundy’s due-diligence
study* evaluated the potential
cost reductions of CSP.
• Cost reductions for trough
technology will result from scale-
up, R&D and deployment.
• Utilities have expressed interest
in technology if cost at 7
cents/kWh or less.
*
Sargent and Lundy (2003). Assessment of Parabolic Trough and Power Tower Solar Technology Cost and
Performance Impacts. http://www.nrel.gov/docs/fy04osti/34440.pdf
Reference ”learning curve”

RE cost vs time (TRANS-CSP)
22

RE potential for EU countries
23
År 2050 har EU ca 5600 TWh RE potential och ett el-energibehov om ca 4000 TWh.
Samtidigt som import av fossilt bränsle beräknas öka till >70% av EU behovet.

Land use of different energy sources?
24
Arealbehov för
CSP @ 20 %
verkningsgrad**Kramer junction 1 TWh, 2,5 milj m2, 20% eta (1985-94, 12 TWh tot -06)

HVDC extension (DLR)
25
Elsystemet integreras i nord/sydlig riktning tydligare än idag.
Source: DLR Trans-CSP study

HVDC extension (EU-MENA, TREC)
26

“Water stress” also seem to be a
important driver
28

Revenues from operation
• Electricity sales
• Subsidies, e.g. feed-in tariffs:
– Spain: 22 c€/kWh
– Greece:23-25 c€/kWh
• By-products from ”waste” heat
– Desalinated water
– District heating/cooling
– Fuels
31

Investment cost of CSP-PT: Current situation
• State-of-the-art technology today in 2300-3500 €/kW range
– Andasol I&II (Spain)
– Nevada Solar One (USA)
– Theseus (Greece)
– Archimedes (Italy)
– Exception: Enea (Italy) claims 1570 €/kW using new structures etc.
• Investment cost is heavily dependent on whether thermal
energy storage (TES) is incorporated in the design and to
what extent
32
Large TES
capacity
High Investment
cost
Low LCOE
[c€/kWh]
High
capacity factor
and dispatchability
Decoupled by TES!!

CSP investment cost divided on its components
Solar field is the dominating part of
investment: ~50%
33
Source: Fichtner 2002

CSP-PT Solar field cost divided on its components
Structures, receivers and mirrors cost!
34
Source: Ecostar, DLR 2005

Investment cost of CSP-PT: Reduction potential
• Main targets for cost reduction:
– Solar field: Structure designs, receiver and reflector materials
– Storage: Media, design
– System: Steam cycle options (oil, direct steam generation)
35
15-30% cost reduction
Unit scaling and mass production of components can reduce another 30%
+
=
~45-60% cost reduction

O&M costs: current and outlook
Best actual O&M costs proven:
• Kramer Junction:0.025 US$/kWh (1998)
Current estimate state-of-the-art:
• 2-3% of investment per year (ENEA, TREC etc)
• from 1.3-2.9 c€/kWh in O&M cost
Future estimates:
• 0.6 c€/kWh (0.008 US$/kWh) DOE goal for 2020
• 0.85 c€/kWh ENEA
36

LCOE estimates – current and outlook
37
0,000
0,020
0,040
0,060
0,080
0,100
0,120
0,140
0,160
0,180
2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030
Year
LCOE[c€/kWh]
Sources: IEA, ENEA, DLR, Sargent&Lundy, NREL, DOE…

The impact of a market valued CO2-price
38
LCOE sensitivity to CO2 prices
0,0
2,0
4,0
6,0
8,0
10,0
12,0
14,0
16,0
10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100
CO2 price [€/ton]
LCOE[c€/kWh]
Coal best available
Coal CO2 hi
Gas best available
Gas CO2 high
CSP
40€/ton: Marginal cost for needed CO2 reduction [Vattenfall/McKinsey]
~65€/ton: CO2 externalities estimated cost [Stern Review]
With today’s costs, CSP could be close to commercial without subsidies
- if fossil fuels would bear their own costs

CSP Market development: current
status
39
We are here
CSP value chain development implies incremental decrease in costs

Relation solar irradiation and LCOE
40
Sevilla Best
european
site
Desert Best site
in the
world
 Selection of site is essential for competetiveness

41
Operation & Maintanance of CSP

What are the O&M costs?
Labor costs:
• Tech services
– Mirror cleaning
• Operations
• Administrations
• Maintenance
Materials:
• Mirror breakage
• Receiver breakage
• …
42
Back-up

B3C – Balanced Carbon Cycle
Concept
A energy business system concept for
a possible smooth transition into the
next energy economy
Stefan Larsson, Mikael Svensson (Vattenfall R&D AB)

B3C:
Vision
B3C is a energy & business system concept that…
…could turn CO2 sequestration & storage into a profitable
business activity
…separates environmental impact, primary energy supply and
economic growth
…uses renewable energy in symbiosis with existing infrastructure
…solves the intermittance problem of renewable energy
…expands the value chain
…offers additional business opportunities
…allows a smooth transition into the next energy economy
45

46
B3C:
The world of power & fuels
The future world of
power utility
business?
Higher emission costs
RE
intermittance
Fuel switching
R
egulations
DG
expansion
Fuel prices
Security
of supply
Capital destr.
TheCO2issue
Economic recess. Corporate responsibility
2013 will be a transition into high end costs for fossil power!

B3C:
Old energy business rules no longer
apply
The energy world is experiencing:
- Energy prices are increasing
- Global fuel recource assessment often ”political” rather than ”physical”
- Fuels are not ”abundant” today
- We now have a multiple market ”energy price” for all fuels
- Markets converge: Transportation and Power are not separate markets.
- Decreasing fuel quality increase prices and energy conversion costs
47
Fuels are quickly becoming a business problem!

B3C:
Are we close to maximum production
rate?
49

B3C:
R/P 2120 scenario with fuel switching
50
R/P forecast (IEA and GeoHIVE data)
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
2003
2007
2011
2015
2019
2023
2027
2031
2035
2039
2043
2047
2051
2055
2059
2063
2067
2071
2075
2079
2083
2087
2091
2095
2099
2103
2107
2111
2115
2119
R/P(Oil,gas)
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
500
R/P(Coal)
R/P Oil
R/P Gas
R/P Coal
Fuel switching occur on a global basis
if oil production rate is at ASPO/BP/IEA
base reference level.

51
B3C:
Nuclear fuel supply forecast?
Conventional nuclear fuel potential seems to be limited!

52
B3C:
Price development of fuels

53
B3C:
Price development of fuels

54
B3C:
How is the state of global fossil fuels?
Supply:
- Petroleum: Conventional non-OPEC oil
has probably peaked.
Nonconventional+conventional
petroleum could be peaking before
2020.
- Gas: The amount of LNG terminals are
soaring worldwide. Natural gas is
quickly depleting its resource base.
- Coal: Coal R/P was 250 years in 1999.
It is estimated to 160 years in BP
statistical review 2004.
Demand:
- Fuel switching: There are many
projects that want to produce synfuels
from NG, LNG and Coal to leviate the
transportation industry fuel costs.
- Power plants shift fuel to cope with
increased costs.
- As fuel quality decreases by time, the
distribution & conversion energy input
increases = less ”net” fuel is produced.
- World population & energy use are
still on the rise.
High probability that supply and demand will not be met in the future

55
B3C:
Conclusion of current trends
The world fuel production development are not ”business as
usual” anymore.
What can we do?
- Use more ”fuel-free” intermittent energy systems (hydro, wind, wave)?
- Build more energy storage systems (pump hydro, compressed air
storage, large batteries)?
- By fuels from new sources or non-conventional fuels?
- Increase efficiency in our plants (at high costs)?
Is this the dark end of the utility tunnel or is there any light at the end?

56
B3C:
What is the solution then?
- No single technology is the answer to a smooth transition into a new
energy economy!
- Most renewables produce low grade heat or electricity=power market
disruption & intermittent sources (a storage issue arise)!
- A ”warp” into the Hydrogen economy is not a plausible answer!
- The world need a primary energy input that is non-intermittent!
- The system solution has to fit current energy infrastucture!
What is implementable within the current energy infrastructure without
scale limitations or capital destruction?

B3C:
Fossil fuel based powerplants today
57
Power plant
Atmosphere
Customer
(Private/
Commercial)
Fossil fuel
(Primary energy)
Water (e.g. ocean sea, lakes, groundwater)
O2 H2O
H2O
Heat / electricity
Coal / gas / oil
CO2
Energy/substance storageEnergy carrier flow
Other substances flow
Energy conversionPrimary energy inflow to system
Energy end user
Biomass
(Primary energy)
CO2
H2O
O2
Biomass
RE
Transport sector
CO2
O2

B3C:
CO2 sequestration and storage
58
Power plant
Atmosphere
Customer
(Private/
Commercial)
Fossil fuel
(Primary energy)
CO2
CO2
O2
O2 H2O
H2O
Heat / electricity
Coal / gas / oil
CO2 (Bio)
Energy end user
Biomass
(Primary energy)
CO2
H2O
O2
Biomass
RE
CO2 storage Transport sector

59
B3C:
What about the CO2 sequestration byproduct?
What is the most promising business opportunity with a waste
CO2 stream?

60
B3C:
The hydrocarbon conversion triangle

61
+
Thermal energy
Carbon Dioxide
Water
Methanol (or other hydrocarbon)
Water (pure H2O)
Oxygen
+
Thermal energy
Carbon Dioxide
Water
Methanol (or other hydrocarbon)
Water (pure H2O)
Oxygen
B3C:
Synthesis of H2O + CO2  CH3OH

B3C:
Artificial Hydrocarbon fuels
62
H2
CO2
CH3OH
Compression/
Catalysis
IN OUT
Heat
Reformulate CO2+H2 into CH3OH.
Atmosphere
Reduction of
CO2 to CH3OH
(220°C, 50 bar)

B3C:
Heat generated H2 for fuel production
63
H2O
O2
H2
CO2
CH3OH
Electrolysis or
Thermochemical
Hydrogen
Compression/
Catalysis
Energy
Atmosphere
IN OUT
Heat
CO2 from Oxyfuel powerplants CO2 from Air
Fuel to powerplants
& refinerys
Use RE to
produce the hydrogen
Turn CO2 emissions into usable Methanol!
$250/kWt
Ref. Brown, et al AIChE 2003
General Atomics

64
B3C:
System concept of CO2 recycling (B3C)!
”Carbon cycle concept”
Power plant
Atmosphere
Fuel production
plant
Customer
(Private/
Commercial)
Customer
(Transport sector)
*) AHF: Artificial Hydrocarbon Fuels
CO2
CO2
O2
O2O2 H2O
H2O
H2OAHF*
AHF*/Electricity
Heat / electricity
CO2
RE
Heat / electricity
CO2
storage
Energy end user
AHF*
storage
Biomass
(Primary energy)
CO2
H2O
O2
Biomass
RE
Fossil fuel
(Primary energy)
Coal / gas / oil
CO2

65
B3C:
Other possibilities?
Recycle CO2 from:
- Post combustion capture in power plants
- Biogas fermentation
- Ethanol fermentation
- Polygeneration power plants
- Sea water (polymembrane separators)
- Concrete production facilities

66
B3C:
What about the CO2 levels in the atmosphere?
Could we ever reduce the CO2 levels below 372ppm?
Is there a possibilty to run the old power plants
at low CO2 costs without sequestration technology
until they are decomissioned?

67
B3C:
Carbon management & fuel production
H2O
O2
H2
CO2
CH3OH
Hydrogen
Compression/
Catalysis
Atmosphere
IN OUT
Heat
CO2 capture
from air
Turn CO2 emissions into usable CH3OH (Methanol) and reduce CO2 below todays level!
Fuel to powerplants
& refinerys
Add artificial trees
to capture air CO2
$10-15/ton CO2
Ref. K.S.Lackner
Los Alamos

B3C:
Direct CO2 capture – total carbon
management
68
CO2
Direct CO2
capture
Atmosphere
IN
OUT Thermochemical
plant
If the capture is powered by natural wind, atmospheric carbon capture could be cheap!

69
B3C:
Capturing CO2 directly from the air?
9500 ton CO2/day
Equals a 360 MW coal powerplant
Or car emissions for a 700 000 person city
Dr Klaus Lackner, Columbia USA, envision caustic soda, sodium hydroxide as CO2 absorbent.
Evaluated current known technologies and made cost estimates of such extraction devices.
At 6m/s one finds that through the windmill collection area pass 130W/m2 of kinetic energy carried by the air. Through the CO2 collector pass 3.8g/(m2 sec) of CO2.
In an area and time in which the windmill collects 1 kWh the CO2 collector of equal efficiency extracts 3.6×106 J/130 J×3.8 g = 105 kg.
Thus collection of 1 ton of CO2 is equivalent to the generation of 10 kWh of electricity from wind.

70
B3C:
What about the H2 production?
Where do we find cheap energy in a fuel constrained
world at sufficient scale for the probable demand?

71
B3C:
H2 electrolysis by RE-power (wind, wave, tidal)
(*From ELSAM ”Venzin project”)

72
B3C:
Hydrogen with thermochemical reactors
There are more than 100 known thermochemical hydrogen production cycles available today
Example: The sulfur-iodine process system efficiency is >50% compared to 25-35% for
electrolysis (the electrolysis process + conventional electric power plant efficiency)

73
B3C:
Hydrogen + synthesis in reversible fuel cells
(*George Olaf and others)
Direct synthesis are one possibility (we find lots of referenses in refinery industry papers)

74
B3C:
CSP energy for H2 production?
H2O
O2
H2
CO2
CH3OH
Thermochemical
Hydrogen
Compression/
Catalysis
Solar
Heat
Atmosphere
IN OUT
Heat
CO2 capture
from air
Use cheap (EUR10/kW) mirrors to collect high grade solar heat and produce a solar fuel!
Fuel to powerplants
& refinerys
Add a large scale
solar concentrator
Heat

75
B3C:
First synthetic fuel power plant concept
Metal/
MetalOxide
CH3OH
CO2
H2
H2O
O2
G
AHF
Electricity
Heat
Desalination
plant
Seawater
100%
50%
50%
60%*50%=~30%
30%*70%=~20%
40%*50%=~20%
H2O
Example: Secondary use of heat
Fuelreactor
Metal/
MetalOxide
CH3OH
CO2
H2
H2O
O2
G
AHF
Electricity
Heat
Desalination
plant
Seawater
100%
50%
50%
60%*50%=~30%
30%*70%=~20%
40%*50%=~20%
H2O
Example: Secondary use of heat
Fuelreactor
(*One of Stefan Larsson-
Mastonstråle’s system idea’s)

76
B3C:
Solar fuel reactor technology could be feasible
Heliostat reflector cost 200-220 EUR/kWt (@2000-2500 h). Solar fuel = no intermittance for the end user!
CO2
Direct CO2
capture
Atmosphere
IN
OUT Solar
Thermochemical
plant
0,05-100 MW
>300 MW

77
B3C:
Hydrogen with M/Mo reactors (Solzink project)

78
B3C:
Renewable gasoline
Sandia USA are one of the leading groups
Papers are available from Shell, BP, Norsk Hydro (and others)

79
B3C:
Renewable fuels from CO2
Fritz Haber institute, Berlin

80
H2O Solar
Hydrocarbons
CH4 alt CH3OH
Feeding
pump
Membrane
separator
Membrane
separator
Compressor
Air or
Air enriched
CO2
N2 + O2
out
Polyionic
liquid
catalysis
B3C:
”PICAT” polyionic liquid hydrocarbon synthesis
(*One of Stefan Larsson-
Mastonstråle’s system idea’s)

81
B3C:
What about the RE energy infrastructures?
Can we get the energy from producer locations to the user countries?

B3C:
The EU hydrocarbon infrastructure
map
82
If the renewable fuel is a
hydrocarbon (Methane or
Methanol), we can use
current pipeline and
transport infrastructure at
low cost
Solar
Thermochemical
plants
Solar
Thermochemical
plants
Fossil fired
power plants
Fossil fired
power plants
Solar
Thermochemical
plants
Fossil fired
power plants
Existing pipelines
Planned or under construction
LNG facilities

83
B3C:
The EU electricity infrastructure map
Renewable electrity
becomes increasingly easy
to distribute across EU.

B3C:
A new business opportunity?
84
Power plant
Atmosphere
Fuel production
plant
Customer
(Private/
Commercial)
Customer
(Transport sector)
*) AHF: Artificial Hydrocarbon Fuels
CO2
CO2
O2
O2O2 H2O
H2O
H2OAHF*
AHF*/Electricity
Heat / electricity
CO2
RE
Heat / electricity
CO2
storage
Energy end user
AHF*
storage
Biomass
(Primary energy)
CO2
H2O
O2
Biomass
RE
Fossil fuel
(Primary energy)
Coal / gas / oil
CO2

B3C:
Conclusions
A feasible and smooth transition
into the RE economy could be possible
85
Turn the CO2 problem into profits
Use existing infrastructure
Large scale renewable energy without intermittance
Expand the value chain and customer base
B3C

86
The most important results from realization of a B3C system solution are believed to be:
•Strengthens security of primary energy supply
•Separates environmental impact, primary energy supply and economic growth
•Energy storage as fuel eliminates RE intermittence & CO2
storage costs
•Cost efficient way for transition into a post-fossil energy economy
•New business opportunities; new fuels, chemical feedstock, water etc.
•Will not disturb electricity market, unlike direct renewable electricity generation
•Political and public leverage due to proactiveness from energy industry
B3C:
Results from a possible implementation?

Future possibilities for utilization of solar energy serc 2009 05-20

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