Impact of Covid-19 on Indian Urban Mobility

Impact of COVID-19 on Indian Urban Mobility by Sam Ghosh 19th July 2020

Pre-COVID Urban Mobility
Pre-COVID U-Mobility How Does Urban India Commute? Forces at Play Post-COVID Urban MobilityStakeholders

Private Final Consumption Expenditure on Transport by Indians
● Expenditure on transportation by households is growing faster than the economy. It stood at ~$220 billion in
2017-18.
Note: Rs. 16.23 trillion = ~US $220 billion @ 1 USD = Rs. 75.18
Indian Transportation Market Transportation Infrastructure Issues with Transportation

Impact of COVID-19 on Indian Urban Mobility by Sam Ghosh 19th July 2020Source: BCG
Consumer Segments: Share of Consumption Expenditure by Location
● Share of transportation consumption in the urban areas was a little less than 50% in 2018 but growing faster
than the rural areas. It was expected to be ~60% by 2025.
Metropolitan: Population of more than 4 million, Tier 1: Population between 1 to 4 million, Tier 2:
Population between 0.5 to 1 million, Tier 3: Population between 0.01 to 0.5 million, Tier 4: Population
between 10,000 to 100,000, Rural: Population less than 10,000

Indian Urban Population
● One of the reasons for the quicker growth of the urban transportation market is the rapid urbanisation of
India. By 2050 the Indian Urban Population was expected to be 866 million.
Data: World Bank

Indian Urban Population
● ...and was expected to be ~53% of the Indian population from merely 31% in 2010.
Data: World Bank

Registered Motor Vehicles in Whole India
● In 2016 India had 230 million registered vehicles, out of which more than 73% were 2-wheelers.
Data: MOSPI 2018

Vehicular Penetration in India
● Vehicular penetration in India is really low, especially for cars. A lot of growth potential in this respect.
Data: Ministry of Housing and Urban Affairs, 2019

Vehicular Penetration in Urban India
● Vehicular penetration (2012 data) is considerably higher in the urban areas which is normal.

Registered Motor Vehicles in Urban India
● Registered motor vehicles in the million+ cities grew at CAGR 11.5% between 2006 and 2016.
Data: MOSPI

Citywise Registered Motor Vehicles
● Delhi had the most number of registered motor vehicles as of 2016, followed by Bangalore and Chennai.
Data: MOSPI

Issues with Transportation: Pollution
● India had 6 out of 10 most polluted cities in the world in 2019.
Source: IQAir

Issues with Transportation: Pollution
● Greenpeace 2018 report: The cost of pollution caused by fossil fuel to the Indian economy is around
USD $150 billion.
● Health issues created by pollution also causes around a million deaths a year in India.
● IQAir 2019 Air Quality Report: India has the 5th worst air quality with 58.1 average PM2.5 concentration
(µg/m³).
● Delhi has the worst quality of air in the world with 98.6 PM2.5 concentration.
Source: IQAir

Issues with Transportation: Traffic Congestion
● TomTom - Bengaluru, Mumbai, Pune and New Delhi : 4 India cities are among the top 10 congested
cities in the world
○ Bengaluru at no.1.
● BCG - The cost of congestion in 4 metros - Delhi, Mumbai, Bangalore, and Kolkata was more than USD
$22 billion.
Source: BCG Report, April 2018

Issues with Transportation: Traffic Congestion…
● OECD: Estimated hours lost per worker per year for traffic congestion in Delhi - 76.8 hours.
● Move in Sync Report - Indians spend 7% of their day in office commute.
Ranking City Average Speed (km/h)
1 Chennai 25.7 km/h
2 Hyderabad 21.2 km/h
3 Delhi-NCR 20.6 km/h
4 Pune 19.9 km/h
5 Bangalore 18.7 km/h
6 Mumbai 18.5 km/h

Issues with Transportation: Traffic Congestion: Mass Transportation was hailed as the solution

Issues with Transportation: Parking Space Constraint
● Centre for Science and Environment - “a car runs only for 400 hours on an average in a year, and is
parked the rest of the time (8,360 hours or 95%).”
● Supreme Court: “Parking problem blocking prosperity of Delhi”
● In Delhi, “ at least one person has been killed every month because of parking-related disputes, say the
police.”
● Pune has 2.5 million registered two and four-wheelers but has parking space for only 1,800 vehicles.
● “Bangalore 6th in the world for worse parking”
● “Lack of parking space, more vehicles worsen Mumbai traffic”

Issues with Transportation: Dependence on Fossil Fuel
● India is heavily dependent on crude oil imports.
○ In FY 2018-19 India imported 87% Crude oil.
● At USD $141 billion, crude oil was 27% of total imports and the largest import category for India.
● CEEW: “95 percent of the Indian transport sector’s demand for fuel is met by petroleum-based
derivatives, with 72 percent met by diesel, 23 percent by petrol, and the remainder by a fuel mix
comprising CNG, LPG, etc.”
● IEA - transportation solely accounts for ~48% of oil consumption in India as of 2017 and increasing
rapidly..

How Does Urban India Commute?

Behaviour of Urban Commuters - CEEW Study
● About 70% of Indian urban dwellers travel distances below 10 km for work and education. The average time spent
traveling (one-way) is 27 minutes.
● Over half of urban India walks (more than 500 meters) for their weekly needs, followed by the use of personal
motorbike and public transport.
● Gender, occupation, and age are significant determinants of use of non-motorised transport (NMT). Women and
individuals in the 18–34 years age group are more likely to use public transport and NMT options than men and
individuals in the age group of 45 years or above.
● Men, working individuals, and individuals older than 45 years are significantly more likely to use private modes of
transport.
● Personal cars are the most frequently used modes of transport among people living in Northern India.
● Tier 2 and Tier 1 cities have a significantly higher two-wheeler use as compared to metros.
● The average distance traveled to access public transport is 1.4 km and the majority of them walk the first-mile
distance.
Urban Commuter Behaviour Mode Share

Mobility Mode Share in Indian Cities
● Urban commuters primarily walk, followed by the use of 2-wheelers. The use of transportation increases
with the size of the city.

Desirable Mobility Mode Share in Indian Cities - National Transport Development Policy Committee, 2013
Para- Transit: Transportation service that supplements larger public transit systems by providing
individualized rides without fixed routes or timetables.

Stakeholders

Ownership Offerings
2-Wheeler Manufacturers
4-Wheeler Manufacturers
Bicycle Manufacturers
Used Vehicle Dealers
Usership Offerings
Public Transport Providers
Paratransit Services
Ride-Hailing Services
Ride-Splitting Services
Ride-Sharing Services
2 Wheeler Sharing
Car sharing Services
Microtransit
Urban
Mobility
Needs
High-Level Used VehiclesManufacturers Public Transport Shared Mobility

Automobile Manufacturers in India
Source: IBEF

Automobile Manufacturers in India: Sales
● In FY 2018-19, 26.3 million units were sold in India. 3.4 million were passenger vehicles and 21.2 million
were 2-wheelers.
Source: SIAM

Source: SIAM

● ~66% of Passenger Vehicles sold were Cars and 64% of 2-Wheelers sold were Motorcycles.
Source: SIAM

Bicycle Manufacturers in India
● Atlas Annual Report 2018-19: India produces approximately 10% of the global annual bicycle production.
Global production is around 150 million which makes Indian production ~15 million.
● The annual domestic demand for bicycles in India is approximately 12 million units, out of which around 4.0
million units is government demand for the various welfare schemes.
● Exports out of India are primarily to Africa and the less developed economies and negligible to western
markets.’
● The bicycle market in India is projected to grow at a CAGR of over 11% till 2021.
● The mass-market segment is experiencing a sluggish growth of between 4-6% annually the premium &
lifestyle segment is growing at a CAGR of over 30%.
● The market size for the lifestyle cycles is estimated at 0.25 million units annually.

Bicycle Manufacturers in India
Hero Cycles Hero Cycles is the largest manufacturer of bicycles in India producing 5.2 million cycles per
annum. Hero Cycles acquired Firefox Bikes - India’s largest premium bicycle brand.
Atlas Cycles Atlas Cycles is one of the top bicycle producing companies in the world, with a capacity to
produce 4 million bicycles per year.
Avon Cycles Avon Cycles offers wide choices from MTB Bicycles, Ladies Bicycles to Kids Bicycles.
TI Cycles TI Cycles is the parent company of premium brands such as BSA, Hercules, Montra, and Mach
City.
La-sovereign La Sovereign is India's leading brand in imported bikes having a wide range of premium high
end, Mountain, Geared, BMX, MTB, Kids, and Road Bicycles. LA SOVEREIGN Bicycles is a
joint venture between Thailand & India Based companies to market Bicycle & Kids Toys of high
quality & world-class designs to the Indian consumers.
Firefox Bikes Firefox Bikes is a premium brand offering a various type of bicycles from Mountain Bikes, City
Bikes, Road Bikes, Ladies, and Kids Bikes.
Road Master Road Master India is the fastest-growing bicycle brand in India. It offers various types of
bicycles from Mountain Bikes, City Bikes, Road Bikes, Ladies, and Kids Bikes.

Used Vehicle Market in India
● IndianBlueBook: Pre-owned car market has grown steadily in FY19, it has crossed the 4 million unit mark
and is 1.2x the size of the new car market.
● Over 170 million pre-owned car queries in FY19
Source: IndianBlueBook

Public Transport in India: Metro Rail
Source: Ministry of Housing and Urban Affairs, 2019
Operational:
642 km
Under Construction:
691 Km

Public Transport in India: Metro Rail
● Between 2004 and 2019, India added Metro Rail lines at CAGR of 18.6%.
Source: Ministry of Housing and Urban Affairs, 2019

Public Transport in India: Bus Services
● MORTH 2015-16: 54 State Road Transport Undertakings (SRTUs) comprising of 24 State Road Transport
Corporations (SRTCs), 12 Companies, 8 Government Departmental Undertakings and 10 Municipal
Undertakings, providing passenger transport services for rural, inter-city, and urban areas.
● There were 129,179 busses in operation in FY 2015-16 and performed more than 540 billion
passenger-kilometers.
● There are 8 are metropolitan cities based SRTUs.
● Bangalore Metropolitan TC had the largest fleet strength of 6,648 and Chandigarh TU had the lowest fleet
strength of 494 as on 31st March 2016.
Pre-COVID U-Mobility How Does Urban India Commute? Forces at Play Post-COVID Urban MobilityStakeholdersPre-COVID U-Mobility How Does Urban India Commute? Forces at Play Post-COVID Urban MobilityStakeholders

Public Transport in India: Bus Services: Physical Parameters of SRTUs in Metropolitan Cities during 2015-16
Source: Ministry of Road Transport and Highways

Public Transport in India: Cost of Public Transport
Source: CSE 2019

Public Transport in India: Mode wise Travel Cost: Delhi
Source: CSE 2019

Public Transport in India: Mode wise Travel Cost: Bangalore
Source: CSE 2019

Public Transport in India: Issues with Public Transport
Source: CSE 2019

Paratransit or Intermediate Public Transport (IPT) services
● These are privately owned and informally operated shared mobility services, typically provided by 3-wheeled
auto-rickshaws with a capacity of three to six passengers per vehicle.
● Paratransit services provide both point to point (P2P) and shuttle services between fixed origins and
destinations, forming the largest share of shared trips in many Indian cities.
Source: CSE 2019

Shared Mobility
(Niti Aayog)
Ride-Hailing Ride Splitting Ride Sharing
2 Wheeler
Sharing
Carsharing Microtransit
On-demand services that
link riders to for-hire drivers
who are using their own
vehicles as commercial
vehicles.Also known as
Ride-sourcing or e-hailing.
Ex. Uber and Ola.
Algorithm-based splitting of
a ride between strangers
(often).
Ex. UberPOOL and Ola
Share.
Ridesharing is similar to
ride-sourcing, in which trips
are shared by travellers,
but with the exception that
drivers are not considered
“for-hire,” though they can
receive some forms of
compensation to recover
their cost.
Ridesharing can be
acquaintance-based,
organization-based, or
ad-hoc.
Time-sharing of 2-wheelers.
Can be of docked, dockless,
and peer-to-peer.
Docked: Users can pay to
obtain and return bikes
at docking stations
throughout the service area.
Dockless: GPS enabled
bikes need not be docked at
the termination of a ride.
Ex. Ola Pedal, Bounce, Yulu
Peer-to-peer: Users rent, or
borrow bikes from owners.
Ex. Cycle.land
Gives users access to
vehicles as needed, often
renting vehicles on an
hourly or daily basis or
paying monthly dues for
use.
Types of carsharing
include: round-trip,
point-to-point, and
peer-to-peer.
Ex. Zoom Car
Private companies operating
shared vans, where drivers
and riders are linked via
IT-enabled applications.
Although similar to
vanpooling, with microtransit,
drivers are hired by
companies or individuals
directly.
Microtransit covers a
spectrum of operating
modes, from fixed route and
schedules to on-demand and
dynamic routes.
Ex. Shuttl

Public Transport in India: Shared Mobility
● Frost and Sullivan - There are more than 30 companies in the shared mobility space in India
● Ride-hailing is dominated by Ola and Uber with a combined market share of 90%.
● Ride-sharing has 15 players in India.
● Ola and Uber dominate the intra-city ride sharing.
● French company BlaBlaCar dominates the long distance intercity ride-sharing.
● Carsharing was introduced in India by Zoomcar who is the market leader with more than 70% market
share.
● Two-wheeler sharing market is dominated by few players in bike taxi, rental, and bicycle sharing
categories.
● Major Two-wheeler sharing service providers: Roppen Transportation Services Pvt. Ltd. (Rapido), ANI
Technologies Pvt. Ltd. (Ola Bike), Uber Technologies Inc. (UberMoto), WickedRide Adventure Services
Pvt. Ltd. (Bounce), Vogo Automotive Pvt. Ltd. (Vogo), Bycyshare Technologies Pvt. Ltd. (Mobycy), and
Royalbison Autorentals India Pvt. Ltd. (Royal Brothers).

Forces at Play

Urban
Commuter
Behaviour
Lower Interest
Rates
Work From
Home
Fear of Infection
Reverse
Migration
Lower Crude Oil
Prices
Lower
Purchasing
Power
Lower Asset
Values
Change in
Employment
Types
Availability
Issues

Forces at Play: Fear of Infection
● Evidences suggest fear of infection is leading to significantly less use of public transport.
● Commuters are more likely to prefer control over their exposure.
● Avoidance of crowded places may fundamentally change the behavior of urban commuters.
● Ola and Uber Uber suspended ride-sharing services. Commuters may learn to avoid ride-splitting and
ride-sharing services for the long-term.
● Pre-Owned cars are becoming a preferred choice over public transport.

Forces at Play: Lower Interest Rates
● Repo Rates are at record lows.
● Lower interest rates can encourage investment on personal vehicles by urban households depending on
employment status.

Forces at Play: Work/Study From Home
● The COVID-19 lockdowns induced the companies to adopt Work From Home culture.
● The shift is likely to persist long after the end of lockdowns.
● The pandemic also caused a rapid adoption of digital education along with policy push.
● Adoption of Work From Home and Digital Education means a lower need for urban transit (lower Passenger
Kilometers).

Forces at Play: Reverse Migration
● The pandemic due to lockdown caused an ‘exodus’ of migrant workers from urban areas to semi-rural and
rural India.
● The migrants are not likely to come back soon.
● Adoption of Work From Home and Digital Education also enables migrant workers and students to spend
less time in the urban areas.
● The negative economic impact of the lockdowns likely to cause job losses causing further reverse migration.
● The reverse migration is likely to further reduce the need for urban transit (lower Passenger Kilometers).
● Many people may move out of urban areas to adjacent sub-urban areas. This behaviour may positively
impact automobile sales.

Forces at Play: Crude Oil Prices
● EIA expects crude oil prices in 2020 and 2021 to remain lower than 2018-19 levels.
● Although, the Indian government is keeping the fuel prices high by charging excess taxes.
● The economic impact of the pandemic* likely to lower demand for fuel for many years.
● It can be expected that crude oil prices will not increase drastically in the foreseeable future.
● Lower fuel prices may encourage vehicle ownership.
*IMF projects the global economy to shrink by 4.9% in 2020 as of June 2020

Forces at Play: Purchasing Power
● IMF projects the global economy to shrink by 4.9% in 2020 as of June 2020.
● Job loss is the most severe immediate impact of the COVID-19 crisis according to a survey by the Indian
Society of Labour Economics (ISLE).
● A study shows that 80% of Indians lost Income due to COVID-19.
● Covid-19 crisis may lead to a decline of 5.4% in the per capita income (PCI) of Indians in FY21 to Rs 1.43
lakh
● Lower-income means a drop in demand for urban transport and change in mode-share.

Forces at Play: Lower Asset Values
● The pandemic induced economic crisis likely to severely affect the real estate prices.
● As corporates experience earning losses*, the medium-term prospect of the capital markets cannot be very
optimistic even at record low interest rates.
● Lower asset values likely to result in a negative wealth effect causing further lower consumption.
● This is likely to cause a drop in demand for urban transport and change in mode-share.
*Covid-19 impact: Two of every 5 firms log 20% drop in profits

Forces at Play: Change in Employment Types
● As companies are uncertain about the future, gig economy/ freelance jobs are on the rise.
● The change in employment type may have various effects on the consumers such as an increased
preference for saving than spending, delaying high-value purchases, etc.
● The change in consumer behaviour due to change in employment type likely to discourage the purchase of
private vehicles.
● As many gig jobs do not require visiting workplace regularly, this will further lower the demand for urban
transport.

Forces at Play: Availability Issues
● Many public transport modes face restrictions due to social distancing norms. The commuters are likely to
avoid public transport long after the pandemic.
● Ola and Uber Uber suspended ride-sharing services. Commuters may learn to avoid ride-splitting and
ride-sharing services for the long-term.
● Many urban mobility startups are struggling during the pandemic and some may be out of business.
● The above is likely to shrink the options available to the urban commuters.

Post-COVID Urban Mobility

Assumptions
● Commuters will prefer to avoid crowded places.
● Shared mobility companies will try their best to create a perception of hygiene and will be able to convince
commuters to some extent.
● We are analysing medium-long term impact.
● Most stakeholders will be able to recognise the commuter behaviour changes and change positioning
accordingly.
● Car Sharing/ 2-wheel Sharing companies will start offering medium-long term lease services.
Assumptions Impact Map Recommendations

Fear of
Infection
Lower
Interest
Rates
Work/Study
From Home
Reverse
Migration
Lower
Crude Oil
Prices
Lower
Purchasing
Power
Lower
Asset
Values
Change in
Employment
Types
Availability
Issues
Automobile Mfg *
Bicycle Mfg * ** **
Used Car Dealers
Public Transport ** **
Paratransit
Ride-Hailing ** **
Ride Splitting ** **
Ride Sharing ** **
2 Wheeler Sharing ** **
Carsharing
Microtransit ** **
*Lower crude oil prices will encourage commuters buy motorised options rather than bicycles.
**Perceived financial distress will encourage people opt for low cost options such as bicycles, public transport, ride-hailing etc. over investing in motorised vehicles.
Very
Unfavourable
Unfavourable Neutral / Mixed Favourable Very Favourable

Analysis and Recommendations: Automobile Manufacturers
● The pandemic has brought long-term opportunities to the automobile industry by lowering the threat of
shared mobility to a large extent.
● Fear of infection, lower interest rates, and lower crude prices created a favorable environment for
automobile ownership.
● Depending on the speed of economic recovery, the automobile companies can capture the market for young
commuters (25-35) who were using shared mobility solutions until now.
● As automobiles have become a utility (rather than status symbol) for the target market, the automobile
companies need to stress on utility factors such as fuel efficiency, service, price, etc.
● Real or perceived financial stress means the automobile companies can achieve growth by offering
leasing/rental services with monthly payments.
● Record low-interest rates will enable automobile companies to achieve growth by offering low/no-cost
financing.

Analysis and Recommendations: Bicycle Manufacturers
● The pandemic also brings the opportunity to grow and take market share from public transport and shared
mobility.
● Premium bicycles represent an alternative to more expensive motorised options.
● Bicycle Manufacturers should seek the help of city authorities in creating dedicated bicycle lanes.
● To compete with bike-sharing, Bicycle Manufacturers should highlight that bike ownership presents better
control over exposure and hygiene.

Analysis and Recommendations: Used Car Dealers
● Fear of infection, lower interest rates, and lower crude prices created a favourable environment for
automobile ownership.
● Like automobile companies, depending on the speed of economic recovery, the used vehicle dealers can
capture the market for young commuters (25-35) who were using shared mobility solutions till now.
● As used cars are more affordable, they are more attractive to utility seeking young commuters.

Analysis and Recommendations: Public Transport
● The demand for public transport is likely to be low in the foreseeable future.
● Financial stress may force some to use public transport but job losses and work from home may lower the
demand further.
● Public transport companies should re-evaluate growth plans, explore alternative ways of asset utilisation
and optimise transport routes.

Analysis and Recommendations: Ride Hailing, Splitting and Sharing
● These services are severely getting impacted by the fear of infection.
● Lack of control over the exposure and hygiene is a major concern for the commuters.
● Although, lowering purchasing power means people avoiding public transport with a lower budget are likely
to opt for these services.
● The pandemic may fundamentally restrict the growth of this sector.
● Companies in this sector should look for alternative revenue sources.

Analysis and Recommendations: 2-Wheeler and Car Sharing
● Though the fear of infection also may restrict the use of these services, 2-wheeler and car rentals are
preferred over public transport and shared mobility as it offers better control over exposure especially
longer-term rentals.
● Although, there is a skill barrier as many people may not know riding 2-wheelers and driving a car.
● These companies should offer longer term leases and emphasise the sanitisation efforts.

Analysis and Recommendations: Microtransit
● Like public transport, the demand for Microtransit is likely to be low in the foreseeable future.
● Financial stress may force some to use these services but job losses and work from home may lower the
demand further.
● Microtransit companies should re-evaluate growth plans, explore alternative ways of asset utilisation and
optimise transport routes.

Thank You

Impact of Covid-19 on Indian Urban Mobility

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