Nov2012 mobile cloud platform presentation tsr v1.1

TECHNO SYSTEMS RESEARCH CO., LTD.
TSR Bldg., 7-4 Iwamoto-Cho 3-chome,Chiyoda-ku, Tokyo 101-0032
Tel +81 3 3866 4505/Fax +81 3 3866 8248 http://www.t-s-r.co.jp

Mobile Cloud Device Platform
Market Summary

November 2012
Takeshi Niwa (niwa@t-s-r.co.jp)
TSR- Techno Systems Research

Techno Systems Research Co., Ltd. 1


The Full Report
《Report Overview》
- Report Title: “Mobile Cloud Device Platform & 2012“
- Research Period: August to October, 2012
- Release Date: Japanese report: 21 October, 2012
English report: Middle of December, 2012
- Format: A4 129 pages, MS Word format. Provided by PDF Report and Excel Data
- Report Fee: Japanese, Hardcopy: JPY300,000-/ Hard copy + PDF: JPY 390,000-
English, PDF: USD4,500-

《Research Products》
- Mobile Cloud Device (Notebook PC, Tablet, Smartphone)
- Application Processor, Mobile OS

《Main contents》
- Mobile Cloud device market trend
* Tablet, Smartphone, Notebook PC Market Forecast, Share
* Competitive, Segmentation Analysis

- Platform, Apps Processor
* Supply Chain
* CPU core trend
* Apps Processor Market Share
* GPU IP Trend
* Process technology
* Apps Processor Roadmap
…etc



1. “Mobile Cloud Device”
Retail Price range

$700+
Mobile PC,
Win8 pro Ultrabook
Tablet
$600 (Atom/Core i)
Mobile Computing
iPad
$500

Media to Go
Microsoft
Surface RT

$300
iPad mini
Major brand
Smartphones Android, 10"

$200

Major brand
Android, 7"
$100

Merge Ebook,
"ChinaPad"
MP4, PND,
Android Whitebox
portable gaming
~5" 7" 10" 10-13" 11-15"
Display Size

-Smartphone, Tablet and Notebook PC are mainstream mobile cloud devices.
-Smartphone is “Must-have”. Tablet center the middle size screen. Laptop is pushed to “large zone”.
-Platform Wars.


2. Mobile Cloud Device Market by Device Type
Mobile Cloud Device Market Forecast, 2010-2017

1,600.0

1,400.0

1,200.0

1,000.0
Tablet
M Units

800.0 Notebook PC
Smartphone
600.0

400.0

200.0

0.0
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

-Smartphone is biggest in volume. Smartphone highly penetrate in developed countries, also getting
into developing countries.
-Notebook PC is no longer growing market. Tablet surpass Notebook PC market in 2014.



3. OS Platform Share for Mobile Cloud Device
Mobile OS Platform Market Share Trend, 2010-2017

1,200.0 80.0%
Apple Google
Microsoft Other OS 70.0%
1,000.0 Apple M/S Google M/S
Microsoft M/S Other OS M/S
60.0%
800.0
50.0%
M Units

600.0 40.0%

30.0%
400.0
20.0%
200.0
10.0%

0.0 0.0%
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
* Notebook PC, Tablet and Smartphone

-Google Android dominate in mobile Platform. Open strategy, some variants.
-Apple place itself on high end space. Added-value.
-MS struggling in mobile OS market. Trying to make breakthrough by own hardware. Windows 8 may
recapture “mobile computing” market from iPad.
-Other legacy platforms and closed platforms may fade out, or become niche in the market.



4. Mobile Cloud Device Market by Screen Size
Mobile Cloud Device Market Forecast by Display Size, 2010-2017

2,500.0

> 14"
2,000.0 9-13"
5-8"
< 5"
1,500.0
M Units

1,000.0

500.0

0.0
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

-Smaller size will have bigger volume.
-5-8” is new segment. Consist of high end smartphone and low end tablet.
-9-13”grows thanks to tablet. Mobile PC (sub-13”) will shrink (or acquired by Tablet).
-14”: matured market.



5. Tablet Platform Competition Landscape
Expensive
-Army
900USD
-Medical
-Maintenace
-Insureance
Windows 8 Table t etc
2012E~

Apple iPad Laptop PC
Operator
45-50%
Distribution
Channel
500-700USD

WindowsRT
Andorid Major Brand 2012E~
- Samsung, Asus, Sony, etc 400USD
10%
Apple iPad
300USD Commercial Vertical
Consumer Mini 2012E~

Andorid Mainstream 200USD
- Google, Amazon, etc
10%

-Advertisement
50-100USD - Public display
Andorid "ChinaPad"
-Eduacational
27-28% -Restraunts
Low cost etc

-Apple dominates in high end space. Not only consumer, also getting into commercial market. iPad
mini would damage mainstream Android tablet players.
-Many Android tablet vendors face difficulties in competition with iPad. Android tablet players escape
to lower the price, replies on mobile operator’s subsidy, focus on vertical market, or shifts to Win8
platform.


6. Tablet Market by Platform
Tablet Market Forecast by OS Platform, 2010-2017

350.0 Other OS
Windows/ARM
300.0 16%
Windows/IA
Share
Android/ChinaPad
250.0
Android/Major brand
iOS
200.0
M Units

150.0 Windows8
Launch Maintain
>40% share
100.0 each

50.0

0.0
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

-iPad and Low cost Android (“ChinaPad”) are growing segment.
-Many major brand’s Android tablet vendors struggle to gain. Only low cost tablets (from Amazon,
Google…) sell well.
-Windows 8: replacing mobile computer market.
-WindowsRT: Heavily depends on pricing strategy of MS Surface RT. No other OEMs will push WinRT.



7. Smartphone Market by Platforms
Smartphone Market Forecast by OS Platform, 2010-2017
1,600.0

1,400.0

1,200.0 Other OS
Blackberry
1,000.0
Tizen
M Units

800.0 WM/WP
iOS
600.0 Android
Symbian
400.0

200.0

0.0
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

-Android (and some variants) keeps mainstream, around 65%. Apple around 20%.
-Windows phone will be better position after WP8.
-Tizen is almost Samsung’s own OS. Mainly applied to low end segment at the moment.
-Firefox may be rival of Android in low-end segment. It should take 2-3 years to aggregate apps eco-
system and platform maturity.


8. Multi-core Apps Processor Trend
Mobile AP Market Forecast by Number of CPU Core, 2010-2017

2,000.0

1,800.0

1,600.0

1,400.0

1,200.0 Quad Core
M Units

1,000.0 Dual Core
Single Core
800.0

600.0

400.0

200.0

0.0
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

-Quad core Apps processor penetrate in high end segment first in 2012. Quad core will also diffuse in
low end segment from 2013.
-“Quad core” is mainly for marketing/ promotion. Current mobile OS does NOT support quad core
CPU.
-2 types of Quad core; High end: latest ARM CPU or original CPU (Cortex A15, Krait…)
Low end: low cost, low power CPU (Cortex A5/ A7)


9. Apps Processor Vendor’s Position
Smartphone Tablet Notebook PC
2012 TAM 710M 146M 197M - Apple strong both in SP and
Dominant
(50+ %) Intel Tablet market.
- QCOM dominant in SP space
Strong Apple
(30-50%) but weak in Tablet market.
QCOM NVIDIA in opposite.
Moderate
Apple
<Smartphone>
(10-30%)
NVIDIA Allwinner
-QCOM, in-house (Apple and
MTK Samsung
Samsung) are strong.
Small
BRCM SPRD Rockchip TI -AP vendors from low end
(~10%)
fade out
MRVL TI Samsung AMlogic
segment emerging.
fade out
WM InfoTM
-Old major players shrinking.
NVIDIA Nokia
Exit QCOM Intel
STE Leadcore <Tablet>
Telechips Ingenic

Intel HiSilicon
AMD -Allwinner succeed in low end
Freescale Marvell
tablet AP market.
Vimicro Nufront VIA
-NVIDIA widely deployed in
HiSilicon mid-high segment (except
New Entry Apple)
Renesas RDA MTK STE


10. CPU core and Process Technology are the Key (1)

・32/64bit CPU
DMIPS Intel Atom (22nm)
NVIDIA
・64bit support?
"project Denver"
CISC processor Apple CPU
ARM "Atlas"
Qualcomm CPU
・ARM v8 A series
・ARM v8 compatible ・32/64bit
・32/64bit support MIPS CPU

Apple CPU ・Next Gen
・equivalent to MIPS ProAptiv
・Multi-core (1~4) Krait
・Multi-core Cortex A15
・~1.5GHz/ Core ・Multi-core ・1-6 Cores
・Multi-issue pipeline ・~2.5DMIPS/MHz ・3.2-3.5DMIPS/MHz ・3.5DMIPS/MHz
・Out-of-order execution ・License in 4Q2007 Cortex A15 ・4.5 CoreMark/MHz
・3Q2012 MP
・SoC MP in3Q2010 ・28nm or less ・Multi-core (1~8) ・about 1/2 size of C-A15
Cortex A9 ・~2.5GHz/ Core
Scorpion
・3.5DMIPS/MHz
・2.1DMIPS/MHz ・License in 3Q2010
・SoC MP in 4Q2012 ・OS virtualization
Cortex A8 MIPS
・32/28/20nm ・big.LITTLE (sub CPU: C-A7)
・600MHz~1GHz ・2.0DMIPS/MHz ・Larger memory addressability
・2DMIPS/MHz ・Multi-core (1~6) (1074K) ・soft-error recovery
・1.1 GHz in 65nm
・Superscalar, Out-of-order execution

2009 2010 2011 2012 2014

-64bit instruction set, and In-house CPU core are the trend in high end segment. ARM just released Cortex A53/A57 to
compete with 64bit CPUs from Intel. MIPS has 64bit ecosystem for 20 years, but no 64bit CPU cores.

-Apple, QCOM, Intel use own CPU core. NVIDIA also plans for 2015 Tegra processor. (Samsung is another candidate, but
Samsung does not get Architecture license from ARM at the moment)

-OS and applications need to support quad-core, 64bit CPU. RAM capacity and data transfer speed would be another
technical challenge.


11. CPU core and Process Technology are the Key (2)
Process technology roadmap (mobile)
1H2012 2H2012 1H2013 2H2013 1H2014 2H2014 1H2015 2H2015 1H2016 2H2016
Intel (Atom) 32nm HKMG
★22nm HKMG, 3D-gate
○ ★14nm HKMG, 3D-gate
○ ★10nm
TSMC ★28nm poly
★28nm HKMG
○ ● ★20nm HKMG
○ ● ★16nm HKMG, 3D-gate
Samsung ★32nm HKMG
★28nm HKMG
GF ★28nm poly
★28nm HKMG
UMC ★28nm poly
★28nm HKMG
○ ● ★20nm HKMG?
○ 14nm?
○preproduction ●mass production ★chip release

-Intel leads process shrinking, HKMG, tri-gate technology by 1-1.5 years. Intel basically does NOT
provide foundry service to other mobile AP vendors.
-TSMC and GF push forward the schedule of 20nm to catch up Intel.
-UMC seems to be behind the race.

Nov2012 mobile cloud platform presentation tsr v1.1

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Nov2012 mobile cloud platform presentation tsr v1.1