Lecture entitled ‘The EU-Ukraine Association Agreement: Why Voting the Right Way in the Dutch Referendum Matters' given to students at the Studievereniging voor Politicologen In Leiden, University of Leiden on 3 March 2016.

1. DR. TARAS KUZIO, CIUS, UNIVERSITY OF ALBERTA
The EU-Ukraine
Association Agreement:
Why Voting the Right
Way in the Dutch
Referendum Matters

2. Ukrainian Support for European Integration
1. Ukraine has held free and fair elections since 2004 and is the most democratic country in the
CIS.
2. 2004 and 2013-2014: Orange Revolution and Euromaidan showed high levels of civil society
and support for European integration.
3. 2014-2016: Ukraine signs Association Agreement and DCFTA. Visa free regime to follow.
4. Two thirds of Ukrainians support EU membership and half support NATO membership.
5. EU and NATO have not offered membership.

3. EU-Ukraine: Enlargement-Light
1. Ukraine has sought EU membership since 1998 and NATO membership since
2002.
2. The EU has never offered membership to any former Soviet republic (outside the 3 Baltic
states).
3. The 2009 Eastern Partnership (EP) was created for 6 former Soviet states, 3 of
who are interested in pursuing Europan integration (Ukraine, Georgia,
Moldova).
4. The EP offers through an Association Agreement, DCFTA & visa free regime:
economic, trade and political integration without membership.

4. NATO-Ukraine
 Ukraine supported all rounds of NATO enlargement since the 1990s.
 First CIS country to join NATO PfP in 1994 & became one of its most active members.
 Very active in international peacekeeping under UN, NATO, EU and OSCE.
 Ukraine has active bilateral security programme’s ‘In the Spirit of PfP’.
 2002: Ukraine officially declared it is seeking NATO membership.
 2005: Intensified Dialogue on Membership Issues.
 2008: NATO refused to offer a MAP to Georgia & Ukraine.
 50% of Ukrainians support NATO membership.

5. Viktor Yanukovych, Putin and the EU
PUTIN BRIBES YANUKOVCH TO TURN AWAY
FROM THE EU
REVOLUTION OF DIGNITY (EUROMAIDAN)

6. Murder in the Euromaidan
HEAVENLY HUNDRED
(DEAD PROTESTERS)
YANUKOVYCH REGIME STOLE $70-100BN.

7. Putin’s Russia: NATO and EU
Russia until 2008 only opposed NATO
enlargement. Threatened Sweden with military
response if it joined NATO.
From 2010-2012, Russia is also opposed to EU
enlagement into the Western Balkans and CIS.
Growth of Russian nationalism, Soviet nostalgia,
anti-Westernism, conspiraymania (democratic
revolutions);
Spring 2014: Russian annexation of Crimea &
covert intervention in east Ukraine to destroy
legitimacy of presidential elections & thwart
European integration.
RUSSIA, EU & NATO EU-RUSSIA TUG OF WAR

8. Russian Annexation of the Crimea & Invasion of Ukraine:
Biggest European Crisis Since World War II
SURROUNDED INVASION

9. Russian Deceit & Western Sanctions
NO APOLOGY OR ACCOUNTABILITY
FOR MH17
WESTERN LEADERS NO LONGER
BELIEVE RUSSIAN LEADERS

10. Bellingcat:
Russia’s 53rd Anti-Aircraft Missile Brigade Downed MH17
1. The order to move the Buk missile system
across the border was likely made at top
levels of the Russian military hierarchy, the
Kremlin, and even by President Vladimir
Putin himself.
2. The Russian Defense Ministry "bears the
main responsibility for the MH17 tragedy,
shared with the military commanders and
leaders of the self-proclaimed Donetsk and
Luhansk People’s Republics.”
MH17 - Potential Suspects and Witnesses from
the 53rd Anti-Aircraft Missile Brigade (February
2016

11. Putin’s Russian Regime:
Authoritarian, Fascist, Imperialist
REGIME TYPE INDICATORS
1. Opposition destroyed and leaders
assassinated.
2. Media controlled.
3. No free elections.
4. Cult of machismo leader Putin.
5. Massive Cold War era propaganda machine.
6. War crimes committed in Chechnya, Ukraine
and Syria.
CULT OF CRIMINAL STALIN

12. Western Sanctions and Oil Prices
EU DIVIDED AND WEAK
Institutional: difficulty to reach decisions and
consensus.
Regional and cultural divisions in the EU
towards Russia.
Money talks: Londongrad, Cyprus, Austria,
Switzerland, Monaco, Lichtenstein.
Energy: EU dependency, ex-German
Chancellors & corruption.
USA
Obama less interested in Ukraine & foreign
policy than Clinton or Bush.
US & NATO tougher than the EU.
Will the next US president back the US
Congress and supply military assistance &
intelligence to Ukraine?

13. Putin’s Strategic Objective 1: Destroy NATO
Are the 3 Baltic States
Next? If yes, would
Russian hybrid war
trigger NATO’s article
5?

14. Putin’s Strategic Objective 2:
Destroy the EU
"Together, Russia and the Assad regime are
deliberately weaponising migration in an
attempt to overwhelm European structures
and break European resolve.”
"These indiscriminate weapons used by both
Bashar al-Assad, and the non-precision use of
weapons by the Russian forces, I can't find any
other reason for them other than to cause
refugees to be on the move and make them
someone else's problem.”
Gen Philip Breedlove, the Supreme Allied
Commander Europe and the head of the US
European Command

15. Putin’s Alliance with European and US
Nationalists and Neo-Nazi’s

16. Le Pen, Trump and Putin Riding
into the New Sunset

17. The Dutch 6 April 2016 Referendum:
5 Questions We Should Ask
1. What are the unclear motives why Ukraine has been brought into the Dutch quarrel
with Brussels?
2. Putin’s goals are to destroy NATO and the EU. Why should the Dutch assist Vladimir
Putin in breaking up these 2 important organisations?
3. Millions of Ukrainians protested and 100 ‘Heavenly Hundred’ became the first to die
for the EU. Would not a Dutch vote of ‘No’ turn your back on them and their dreams
for a better future?
4. The EU has assisted states in overcoming post-colonialism (Ireland), fascism and
military junta’s (Portugal, Spain, Italy) and totalitarian communism (eastern Europe).
Why should the Dutch also not back the EU’s promotion of democratic values,
human rights, rule of law, economic growth and trade in Ukraine?
5. Would a democratic, less corrupt and economically attractive Ukraine not be of
interest to Dutch business and trade?