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Chapter 2: Foundations of Finance II:
Asset Pricing, Market Efficiency and
Agency Relationships
Powerpoint Slides to accompany Behavioral
Finance: Psychology, Decision-making and Markets
by Lucy F. Ackert & Richard Deaves
©2010 Cengage Learning. All Rights Reserved. May not be scanned, copied or duplicated, or
posted to a publicly available website, in whole or in part.
1
Portfolio risk and return
• Return is a weighted average of returns of
individual securities.
• Risk is less than a weighted average of risks of
individual securities – provided correlations
are less than one.
• The lower are correlations the lower is the
risk of a portfolio.
2 ©2010 Cengage Learning. All Rights Reserved. May not be scanned, copied or duplicated, or
posted to a publicly available website, in whole or in part.
Two-security example
3 ©2010 Cengage Learning. All Rights Reserved. May not be scanned, copied or duplicated, or
posted to a publicly available website, in whole or in part.
Efficient set
4
©2010 Cengage Learning. All Rights Reserved. May not be scanned, copied or duplicated, or
posted to a publicly available website, in whole or in part.
Two-fund separation
5
©2010 Cengage Learning. All Rights Reserved. May not be scanned, copied or duplicated, or
posted to a publicly available website, in whole or in part.
Capital asset pricing model (CAPM)
• CAPM is an equilibrium model: it brings all
investors together.
• According to CAPM only risk related to market
movements is priced by market.
• This is because all other risk can be diversified
away.
• Beta is measure of nondiversifiable risk for a
security.
6 ©2010 Cengage Learning. All Rights Reserved. May not be scanned, copied or duplicated, or
posted to a publicly available website, in whole or in part.
CAPM relationship and beta
7
©2010 Cengage Learning. All Rights Reserved. May not be scanned, copied or duplicated, or
posted to a publicly available website, in whole or in part.
CAPM equation
CAPM equation:
E(Ri) = Rf + i * [E(Rm) – Rf]
Notes: E(Rm) – Rf is market risk premium
i = (Ri , Rm)/ 2(Rm)
8 ©2010 Cengage Learning. All Rights Reserved. May not be scanned, copied or duplicated, or
posted to a publicly available website, in whole or in part.
Market efficiency
• Value is what a security should be worth
based on careful analysis.
• Price is what the market says it is worth.
• What is relationship between value and price
if markets are efficient?
– Older version of market efficiency says value and price are
always identical.
– More subtle and realistic version says they can sometimes differ
a little.
9 ©2010 Cengage Learning. All Rights Reserved. May not be scanned, copied or duplicated, or
posted to a publicly available website, in whole or in part.
Operational definition of market
efficiency
• Financial markets are efficient if no one can
consistently earn excess returns. Excess
means…
– After risk is factored in
– And after costs are factored in
• What sort of costs?
– Transaction costs
– Analysis costs
10 ©2010 Cengage Learning. All Rights Reserved. May not be scanned, copied or duplicated, or
posted to a publicly available website, in whole or in part.
What should be true if markets are
efficient?
• Security prices should respond quickly and
accurately to new information.
• Professional investors should not outperform
net of all fees.
• Simulated trading strategies should fail.
11 ©2010 Cengage Learning. All Rights Reserved. May not be scanned, copied or duplicated, or
posted to a publicly available website, in whole or in part.
Simulated trading strategies
• We can look at possible strategies using
historical data and see if they would have
earned excess returns.
• These strategies must be based on
information that was available.
• If a strategy succeeds in generating excess
returns, this is preliminary evidence against
market efficiency.
• But we need:
– Statistical significance.
– Consistency.
– Beware of data mining!
12 ©2010 Cengage Learning. All Rights Reserved. May not be scanned, copied or duplicated, or
posted to a publicly available website, in whole or in part.
Market efficiency and available
information
• Weak form: historical prices and returns
• Semi-strong form: all public information
• Strong form: all information, including
private information
13 ©2010 Cengage Learning. All Rights Reserved. May not be scanned, copied or duplicated, or
posted to a publicly available website, in whole or in part.
Joint hypothesis problem
• All tests of market efficiency have two
maintained hypotheses:
– Markets are efficient.
– A fair return on a security or portfolio is from a particular model
(in early tests this model was usually CAPM).
• Rejection means:
– Markets are not efficient.
– Method for calculating fair returns is faulty.
– Or both.
• But which? Joint hypothesis problem!
14 ©2010 Cengage Learning. All Rights Reserved. May not be scanned, copied or duplicated, or
posted to a publicly available website, in whole or in part.
Agency relationship and agency
problem
• Agency relationship exists whenever someone (the
principal) contracts with someone else (the agent) to
take actions on behalf of the principal and represent
the principal’s interests.
• In an agency relationship, agent has authority to
make decisions for the principal.
• An agency problem arises when the agent’s and
principal’s incentives are not aligned.
15 ©2010 Cengage Learning. All Rights Reserved. May not be scanned, copied or duplicated, or
posted to a publicly available website, in whole or in part.
Agency costs
• Agency costs are incurred because managers’
incentives are not consistent with maximizing value
of firm.
• Direct costs:
– Example: need to monitor managers, including cost of
hiring outside auditors
• Indirect costs:
– Example: managers of a firm that is an acquisition target
may resist the takeover attempt because of concern about
keeping their jobs, even if the shareholders would benefit
from merger
16 ©2010 Cengage Learning. All Rights Reserved. May not be scanned, copied or duplicated, or
posted to a publicly available website, in whole or in part.

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Ch02.pdf

  • 1. Chapter 2: Foundations of Finance II: Asset Pricing, Market Efficiency and Agency Relationships Powerpoint Slides to accompany Behavioral Finance: Psychology, Decision-making and Markets by Lucy F. Ackert & Richard Deaves ©2010 Cengage Learning. All Rights Reserved. May not be scanned, copied or duplicated, or posted to a publicly available website, in whole or in part. 1
  • 2. Portfolio risk and return • Return is a weighted average of returns of individual securities. • Risk is less than a weighted average of risks of individual securities – provided correlations are less than one. • The lower are correlations the lower is the risk of a portfolio. 2 ©2010 Cengage Learning. All Rights Reserved. May not be scanned, copied or duplicated, or posted to a publicly available website, in whole or in part.
  • 3. Two-security example 3 ©2010 Cengage Learning. All Rights Reserved. May not be scanned, copied or duplicated, or posted to a publicly available website, in whole or in part.
  • 4. Efficient set 4 ©2010 Cengage Learning. All Rights Reserved. May not be scanned, copied or duplicated, or posted to a publicly available website, in whole or in part.
  • 5. Two-fund separation 5 ©2010 Cengage Learning. All Rights Reserved. May not be scanned, copied or duplicated, or posted to a publicly available website, in whole or in part.
  • 6. Capital asset pricing model (CAPM) • CAPM is an equilibrium model: it brings all investors together. • According to CAPM only risk related to market movements is priced by market. • This is because all other risk can be diversified away. • Beta is measure of nondiversifiable risk for a security. 6 ©2010 Cengage Learning. All Rights Reserved. May not be scanned, copied or duplicated, or posted to a publicly available website, in whole or in part.
  • 7. CAPM relationship and beta 7 ©2010 Cengage Learning. All Rights Reserved. May not be scanned, copied or duplicated, or posted to a publicly available website, in whole or in part.
  • 8. CAPM equation CAPM equation: E(Ri) = Rf + i * [E(Rm) – Rf] Notes: E(Rm) – Rf is market risk premium i = (Ri , Rm)/ 2(Rm) 8 ©2010 Cengage Learning. All Rights Reserved. May not be scanned, copied or duplicated, or posted to a publicly available website, in whole or in part.
  • 9. Market efficiency • Value is what a security should be worth based on careful analysis. • Price is what the market says it is worth. • What is relationship between value and price if markets are efficient? – Older version of market efficiency says value and price are always identical. – More subtle and realistic version says they can sometimes differ a little. 9 ©2010 Cengage Learning. All Rights Reserved. May not be scanned, copied or duplicated, or posted to a publicly available website, in whole or in part.
  • 10. Operational definition of market efficiency • Financial markets are efficient if no one can consistently earn excess returns. Excess means… – After risk is factored in – And after costs are factored in • What sort of costs? – Transaction costs – Analysis costs 10 ©2010 Cengage Learning. All Rights Reserved. May not be scanned, copied or duplicated, or posted to a publicly available website, in whole or in part.
  • 11. What should be true if markets are efficient? • Security prices should respond quickly and accurately to new information. • Professional investors should not outperform net of all fees. • Simulated trading strategies should fail. 11 ©2010 Cengage Learning. All Rights Reserved. May not be scanned, copied or duplicated, or posted to a publicly available website, in whole or in part.
  • 12. Simulated trading strategies • We can look at possible strategies using historical data and see if they would have earned excess returns. • These strategies must be based on information that was available. • If a strategy succeeds in generating excess returns, this is preliminary evidence against market efficiency. • But we need: – Statistical significance. – Consistency. – Beware of data mining! 12 ©2010 Cengage Learning. All Rights Reserved. May not be scanned, copied or duplicated, or posted to a publicly available website, in whole or in part.
  • 13. Market efficiency and available information • Weak form: historical prices and returns • Semi-strong form: all public information • Strong form: all information, including private information 13 ©2010 Cengage Learning. All Rights Reserved. May not be scanned, copied or duplicated, or posted to a publicly available website, in whole or in part.
  • 14. Joint hypothesis problem • All tests of market efficiency have two maintained hypotheses: – Markets are efficient. – A fair return on a security or portfolio is from a particular model (in early tests this model was usually CAPM). • Rejection means: – Markets are not efficient. – Method for calculating fair returns is faulty. – Or both. • But which? Joint hypothesis problem! 14 ©2010 Cengage Learning. All Rights Reserved. May not be scanned, copied or duplicated, or posted to a publicly available website, in whole or in part.
  • 15. Agency relationship and agency problem • Agency relationship exists whenever someone (the principal) contracts with someone else (the agent) to take actions on behalf of the principal and represent the principal’s interests. • In an agency relationship, agent has authority to make decisions for the principal. • An agency problem arises when the agent’s and principal’s incentives are not aligned. 15 ©2010 Cengage Learning. All Rights Reserved. May not be scanned, copied or duplicated, or posted to a publicly available website, in whole or in part.
  • 16. Agency costs • Agency costs are incurred because managers’ incentives are not consistent with maximizing value of firm. • Direct costs: – Example: need to monitor managers, including cost of hiring outside auditors • Indirect costs: – Example: managers of a firm that is an acquisition target may resist the takeover attempt because of concern about keeping their jobs, even if the shareholders would benefit from merger 16 ©2010 Cengage Learning. All Rights Reserved. May not be scanned, copied or duplicated, or posted to a publicly available website, in whole or in part.