Professor Brad Mackay explores some of the critical uncertainties posed by Brexit and how they might shape the international competitiveness of the sector in the future.

1. Professor R Brad MacKay
Vice Principal (International Strategy and External Relations)
Talk Outline:
1. The road to Brexit;
2. Through an academic lens;
3. EU-UK negotiation challenges;
4. Implications for UK higher education;
5. Four Scenarios for Brexit;
6. Conclusions
“Beyond Brexit – Post EU
Scenarios for Higher Education”
“As a playwright, I’m used to
the fantastic. I dream up all
sorts of implausible things
and put them in my plays. So
this jolting experience of
going from prison to standing
before you today, I can adjust
to this. But pity the poor
political scientists who are
trying to deal with what’s
probable” (Havel, 1990
February 21).
1.
The road to
Brexit
4 Political Events
1.Scottish IndyRef (September 18, 2014);
2.General Election (May 7, 2015);
3.EU Referendum (June 23, 2016);
4.General Election (June 8, 2017).
2.
Through an
academic lens
…

2. How businesses respond
Aerospace/Defence, Energy,
Engineering, Financial Services, Food
and Drink, Life Sciences, Technology
Four Factors:
1. Where the balance of trade is
located:
§ Regional/National/Global
2. Domicile and location advantages:
§ Domiciled at Home/Abroad
3. Ownership structure of the business:
§ Public/Private/Partnership/
Employee Owned
4. Impact on the core business:
§ How are the primary
stakeholders impacted?
8
9
3.
The EU-UK
Negotiation
Challenges
ü Sequence: Divorce bill, citizen
rights, Irish border and trade
negotiations;
ü Process: Trade negotiations by
principle (4 Freedoms, Regulation,
European Court of Justice) vs.
trade negotiations by sector;
ü Vision: UK internal divisions (e.g.
transition deal)
ü The stakes:
§ 44% of UK exports go to the EU;
§ 53% of UK imports come from the EU
27;
§ 16% of EU exports go to the UK;
§ World Bank: 50% and 62% fall in
goods and services with no trade deal.
4.
Implications for
universities?

3. EU Students
a. UK 125,000
b. Scotland 20,000
c. St Andrews 500
EU Staff
a. UK 17% of research are EU.
b. Scotland 11% of all staff, 17% of academic staff, 24% of research staff.
c. St Andrews 15% of all staff are EU nationals. 1/3 of academic and
academic related.
Research Funding
a. UK 15% of ERA Funding
b. Scotland 12% of UK ERA Funding and 14% of total UK funding
c. St Andrews 20% comes from ERA sources
Erasmus
a. UK 40,000 outbound
b. Scotland 1,600 outbound
c. St Andrews 140 outbound
Economic Contributions
a. UK circa £100 billion and supports 1 million jobs
b. Scotland circa £7 billion and supports some 150,000 jobs
c. St Andrews Around £500 million
5.
Brexit Scenarios
© Financial Times
Scenarios
1.Soft Brexit
2.Hard Brexit
3.Transitional/Long grass
4.Change of heart

4. +/+
“Flying”
Four Scenarios
Brexit
+/-
“All together now”
-/+
“Don’t pass me by”
-/-
“Hard days night”
Soft
Local
Domestic
Political
Intervention
Global
Hard
+/-
“All together now”
+/+
“Flying”
-/-
“Hard days night”
-/+
“Don’t pass me by”
6.
Conclusions
Questions?