UCD15 Talk - Scott D. McArthur - The Carrot and the Heuristic – the Big Problem with Technology and Big Data
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I believe that there is a problem with technology and data that we really have to take more time to consider – the fact that both create an abstract context that can lead people to do the most ridiculous things (including killing people – yes it’s that serious). Paying attention to the psychology of the abstract, perception and cultural memes will make our ideas and technologies more effective and efficient and much more appealing to the public and our customers.
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UCD15 Talk - Scott D. McArthur - The Carrot and the Heuristic – the Big Problem with Technology and Big Data
- 1. The Carrot and Heuristic ..the big problem with big data Scott D. McArthur
- 3. ...Denmark
- 4. Milgram The power of authority… …and the dangers of abstraction
- 7. ..big “The Devil hath power to assume a pleasing shape.”
- 8. Detail …we all have, on average, 1 testicle and 1 ovary!
- 9. The distinction between correlation and causation
- 10. From: Spurious Correlations website
- 11. From: Spurious Correlations website
- 12. From: Spurious Correlations website
- 13. From: Spurious Correlations website
- 14. "All models are wrong; some models are useful". George Box
- 15. Why does all this happen?
- 16. Heuristics : mental shortcuts that ease decision making
- 17. ...Denmark
- 18. Perfect storm
- 19. Professor Teddy Hall Archaeometry “...like being a detective, looking for clues with the hope of confirming or uncovering reality…”
- 20. Consequences
- 21. “Imagine how much harder physics would be if electrons had feelings!”
- 24. ”Imagine how much more effective big data would be if we remember that people have feelings!”
Notas del editor
- Hello and thanks for opportunity today. Before I start I want to try something that’s not on my bio…lets do some magic….specifically
- Mindreading. Indulge me in a little mental arithmetic. Everyone think of a number between 1 and 10. Take it and multiply it by 9. Add the digits together. Take 5 off. Imagine that that number corresponds to a letter – so 1 would be A, 2 B and so on. Have it? Now, think of a COUNTRY that begins with that letter. Now take the 2nd letter of that country and think of an ANIMAL that begins with that letter.. What is your animal?....(progress to next slide)
- ….now whilst a few of you may have come up with eels or possibly elks I imagine from your reaction most of you thought of an elephant…. …which reminds me, I was at the cinema with my partner Samantha the other night and we went to watch Benedict Cumberbatch in “Hamlet” and as Marcellus, an officer of the palace guard, suggests: “Something is rotten in the state of (pause and click) Denmark.” Well, I believe that there is something rotten in the state of technology generally and big data specifically….
- Let’s look a bit further at the mind…. There are a number of things that make people go down a certain route….. To demonstrate at least part of what I believe to be kept in the dark corners of our minds about big data and technology, let’s go back to the 1960s and the classic series of social psychology experiments conducted by Yale University psychologist Stanley Milgram. Tell the story of the electric shocks the teacher and the pupil and the man in the white coat. Then progress to builds…authority is a powerful influencer whilst abstraction (which is not so often discussed and the most important point for us in the room today) can, as demonstrated in Milgram’s much repeated experiment, deadly (…….Pick up book and show audience)
- …..towards the end of the 1985 book (and movie) of Enders Game…the young protagonist….having proven himself, often against the odds, becomes the leader of the group and they embark on a final war “game”……it was actually for real Facts far removed from people allow other people looking at that data to make decisions (easier than they normally would) that could damage or even kill the people in question. The bigger the data the more abstract……. Real life examples include the White House situation room and drone attacks
- What was it that made Ender do what he did? Ender was undoubtedly brilliant and his will to win, drive, need to show others he was “the man” and to ultimately beat his families expectations EG has a cult following among America’s military brass and is now required reading for new Marines….the book foreshadowed the way that virtual interfaces and interactive simulations “We argue that the beneficial effects of goal setting have been overstated and that systematic harm caused by goal setting has been largely ignored”
- So back to the challenges with BD…
- Probably the biggest issue is the amount of data required to make big data useful – try teaching a machine to recognise a cat (recent TED on this) ! https://www.ted.com/talks/fei_fei_li_how_we_re_teaching_computers_to_understand_pictures?language=en Devil image by http://arrioch.deviantart.com/
- Spurious correlations
- Mention that they are linked
- Butterflies in the museum and not like they are in reality – data is not reality Statistics for Experimenters - The second edition (published in 2005; co-authored with William Hunter and his son Stuart Hunter) includes the aphorism three times, the most relevant sentence is this: "The most that can be expected from any model is that it can supply a useful approximation to reality: All models are wrong; some models are useful". Image by Peter Miller
- Now back to our elephants and enders game is that we use mental shortcuts to . What I did with you there was called a heuristic process and the fact that the majority of ease decision making. u chose elephants and Denmark..is the case in point.
- And so we have a perfect storm….unethical behaviour, over-focus on one area while neglecting other parts of the business, distorted risk preferences, corrosion of organizational culture, and reduced motivation. IN AN ORGANISATION Shit storm of negative consequences including…. Source: http://www.forbes.com/sites/hbsworkingknowledge/2013/01/02/why-setting-goals-can-do-more-harm-than-good/
- So what what? How do I think you should look at BD in your roles…. I was apprentice to a hard task master DLG who introduced me to professor teddy hall. I will never forget what he said to me when I asked him what was Archaeometry – he said initially it was about using science to analyse archaeological materials
- Drone attack deaths, Milgrams victim , the drone attack victims the destroyed world in Enders game. Time to put people before technology and go back to first principles…. Image by Michael
- Richard Feynman, speaking at a Caltech graduation ceremony (1974) in 1985 he also conducted his famous “Computer Heuristics Lecture”
- My personal call to action – the shoots are there but we need more cross pollination/fusion cruise – we are getting there are some of the great things that are happening appear almost like magic but there is a way to go After Clarke and his 3rd law: “Any sufficiently advanced technology is indistinguishable from magic” Clarke's 1973 revision of "Hazards of Prophecy: The Failure of Imagination".
- Something else happened in 1985, Live Aid. It’s success and legacy burns bright in the PR and charity world today. Geldof took an abstract number down to one little girl…..and as for Ender – his real talent was………..(pause and click) that he was aware of what happened on the far side of the screen.
- How are you gong to bring your data to life? At the end with the live aid reference. People are not billiard balls, our game is much more complicated by our choosing and changing how we choose.