Water in Future Cities - RCUK Water Showcase 2015 The Crystal, London 30 June 2015 Plenary presentation by Sir Mark Walport, Government Chief Scientific Adviser For details about the event, please visit http://www.nerc.ac.uk/latest/events/list/water/

1. Future of Cities:
Thinking for the long-term
Sir Mark Walport
Chief Scientific Adviser to HM Government
RCUK Water Showcase // June 30th 2015

2. Foresight Future of Cities
Cities matter
Cities are dense
concentrations of people,
jobs, culture, productivity
Cities are the places where
policy objectives succeed or fail
E.g.
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Employment
Health
Growth
Water efficiency
Housing

3. Foresight Future of Cities
The UK is in the process of
devolving powers to cities
The UK has been devolving
powers to cities for 15 years… …the pace is now accelerating
Greater London
Authority created
English Mayoral
Referendums
Manchester
Devolution Deal
Cities and Local
Government
Devolution Bill
2000 2012 2014 20152013
City deals
(Waves 1 & 2)
2007
Further powers
transferred to GLA
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4. Foresight Future of Cities
Many recent reports on cities
What are the prominent themes and signals
about the future of our cities?
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5. Foresight Future of Cities
What we are currently thinking:
Future cities should be liveable cities
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6. Foresight Future of Cities6
To realise attractive future cities, there
must be greater engagement with
water as a critical development issue
Gas Street Basin, Birmingham

7. Foresight Future of Cities
Cities affect water,
water affects cities
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recreation
biodiversity
resilience
community
health
Cities affect the natural water cycle
Water affects city
well-being & development
flash-flooding
run-off
evaporation
infiltration

8. Foresight Future of Cities8
Foresight Land Use Futures recommended
water issues feature systematically into
decision-making on national and local
development
Source: RTPI (2014)
Significant overlap between
projected future city growth and
areas of serious water stress

9. Foresight Future of Cities
But the nature of city
systems reveals some
fundamental challenges
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10. Foresight Future of Cities
Challenge 1:
City systems have long cycles of impact
New towns
Green belts
City deals
GLA
Service economy
Railway
investment
Devolution
Municipal bonds
Car-oriented
development
Digital technologies
Cotton trade
Canals
National Grid
Growth of UK Ports
Brownfield
development
Welfare state
Shipbuilding
Importanceofcitiesasautonomousunits
2000s1900s1800s
Increasing
obesity levels
City networks
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11. Foresight Future of Cities
Heritage
Attractiveness of place
Creative Economy
Teacher attraction
& retention
Housing
Student performance
School capacity
Land availability
Quality urban form
Employment
Well-being
Minimising isolation
& loneliness
Neighbourliness
Cultural events
& activitiesUniversities
Innovation
Economic
productivity
Connectivity
New technology
Agglomeration
opportunities
Short commute
Strong labour marketActive travel
Travel to work
Challenge 2:
City systems are highly interdependent
ICT infrastructure
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12. Foresight Future of Cities
Thinking with a
system-wide view
What do we have to do?
Respond with appropriate ways of thinking
NOW FUTURE
Thinking with a
long-term view
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13. Foresight Future of Cities
How can we better support this?
Greater availability of data is driving new
analytical approaches
Emerging ‘Science of Cities’ potential for
future cities development
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14. Foresight Future of Cities14
Research has key role
Research required to:
• Address knowledge gaps
• Drive innovation
• Develop UK skills, expertise
Significant contribution by UK
Water Partnership to Foresight
Future of Cities project that maps
the current state of research and
critical knowledge gaps

15. Foresight Future of Cities15
Many knowledge gaps to be addressed
Water quantity & quality
 Impact of disease
vectors changes
 Urban pollution
 Invasive species
 Food production
changes
User behaviour
 Lifestyle impacts
 Regulation for water
efficiency
 Community engagement
 Policy effectiveness
Infrastructure
 Impact of scaling
 Refurbishment options
 Cross-sectoral links
 Investment approaches
 Smart monitoring
Groundwater
 Flooding risk
 Sustainable urban
drainage systems
 Urban landscape
design
Extreme events
 Water cycle patterns
 Risk and resilience
 Mitigation strategies
Ecosystem services
 Biodiversity impacts
 Social impacts
 Urban farming growth
 Health benefits

16. Foresight Future of Cities
Diversity in evidence types required
Local consultation
and visioning
Academic reviews
Workshop feedback
Future trends analysis
Comparative data
Disruptive ideas
Aspirational visions
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17. Foresight Future of Cities
Diversity in methods required
Speculative design
Future projections
Data analytics & modelling
Major city
empowerment
London-centric
Smaller cities focus
Baseline
2037
UK national system
“What-if” scenarios
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18. Foresight Future of Cities
Include local people
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19. Foresight Future of Cities
“My purpose is to inquire into the influence which
the progress of modern science and industry may
exercise upon the planning, and particularly upon
the aspect, of the Cities of the Future…
The Cities of Tomorrow will be more readily
susceptible to transformation and adornment than
the Cities of Yesterday.”
Eugene Hénard (1910)
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20. Every effort has been made to trace copyright holders and to obtain their permission for the use of copyright material. We
apologise for any errors or omissions in the included attributions and would be grateful if notified of any corrections that
should be incorporated in future versions of this slide set. We can be contacted through go-science@bis.gsi.gov.uk .
@foresightgovuk
www.gov.uk/go-science