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Strengthening Our Financial System
D E CE MB E R 2 0 1 2
Introduction
Our financial system is fundamentally stronger than it was four years ago, when we endured the worst
financial crisis since the Great Depression. Our banks have added more than $440 billion of fresh capital,
putting them on firmer footing to support lending to consumers and businesses. Our financial institutions
today are also significantly less reliant on short-term financing from private investors, who fled during the
crisis at the first signs of market stress.

Even as policymakers took the necessary steps to stabilize our financial system, they also recognized the
precedent those actions might set. So they put in place a series of measures to help eliminate the perception
that any institution is too big to fail and avoid a repeat of the Fall of 2008.

Regulators face new limitations on emergency authorities employed during the crisis. The Federal Reserve can
no longer provide direct support to individual institutions, as it did with AIG. And the Federal Deposit
Insurance Corporation’s authority to guarantee the financing of bank holding companies was curtailed.

Meanwhile, Wall Street Reform gave regulators new legal powers to facilitate the orderly wind down of large,
failing financial firms. If the government is forced to step in, equity holders will be wiped out, management
will be replaced, and the institution will be dismantled. That way, taxpayers will never again have to bear the
cost of financial firms’ mistakes.

To be sure, our banking system has grown more consolidated in the aftermath of the financial crisis – a trend
that has been taking hold over the last few decades. Yet, compared to its peers, the United States has the least
concentrated banking system of any major advanced economy – and one of the smallest banking systems
relative to the size of its economy.

Some early evidence also suggests that we are making progress addressing the perception that institutions can
still be “too-big-to-fail” in the post-crisis marketplace. For example, investors are increasingly distinguishing
between financial institutions, as measured by a wider variance in credit default swap spreads among the
largest banks. Bank borrowing costs have also increased significantly for the largest, most complex
institutions.

We still have more work to do, but all of this is welcome news for those of us who want a safer, fairer and
stronger financial system.

                                                                                                                1
Stronger Balance Sheets
   A SAFER
  FINANCIAL
   SYSTEM




 U.S. banks have nearly doubled their capital levels since the lows during the financial crisis in
 order to cushion against unexpected losses, while supporting lending and economic growth.
 Meanwhile, banks have almost cut in half their dependence on short-term financing,
 establishing a more stable funding base.

         Tier 1 Capital Ratios and Short-term Funding for the U.S. Banking Industry
INDEX (2007 Q1 = 100)
150                                                                                                                  150
                                                                              U.S. banks have added
                                                                              more than $440 billion
                                                                  2007 Q1     since the crisis.
                         Tier 1 Common
                          Capital Ratio

100                                                                                                                  100


                           Short-term
                          Funding Ratio

 50                                                                                                                  50
                                                                               U.S. banks have
                                                                               reduced short-term
                                                                               financing by more
                                                                               than $560 billion since
                                                                               the crisis.
  0                                                                                                                  0
      2001      '02       '03        '04       '05        '06        '07       '08         '09     '10   '11   '12
       Q1

 SOURCE: FEDERAL RESERVE (Y-9C, FLOW OF FUNDS), HAVER ANALYTICS, TREASURY/FSOC ANALYSIS.

                                                                                                                         2
Bolstering Bank Capital I
  A SAFER
 FINANCIAL
  SYSTEM



Tougher new capital standards would require more loss-absorbing capital and, in effect, would
nearly double the amount of capital all banks are required to hold.

TIER 1 CAPITAL, AS A PERCENT OF RISK-WEIGHTED ASSETS                                                      TOTAL TIER 1 EQUIVALENT
                                                                                                                       11%
                                                                  TOTAL TIER 1                                         2%
                                                                     8.5%
                 TOTAL TIER 1                                        1.5%
                       6%
Add’l                                                                                      ADJUSTED FOR            Common
                    ~2%                                                                   MORE STRINGENT            Equity
Tier 1                                                            Common                  CRITERIA UNDER
                                                                   Equity                    BASEL III***            9%
                 Common
                                                                   7%**
                  Equity
                  ~4%*
     Pre-2010 Capital Requirements                    Stronger Capital Requirements                    Stronger Capital Requirements
             Under Basel I                                   Under Basel III                            Using Basel III Risk Weights


                                                                                                           U.S. regulators have proposed more
       Basel I required that for banks to be
                                                       Basel III would require banks to hold          stringent risk-weights, which would require
     “well-capitalized,” they had to set aside
                                                      more Tier 1 capital overall, and more of          banks to hold more capital against their
      a preponderance of their Tier 1 capital
                                                        that capital in the form of common            assets. Combined with the heightened Basel
      in the form of common equity, which
                                                                       equity.                        III standards, banks would, in effect, nearly
          more effectively absorbs losses.
                                                                                                         double the amount of capital they hold.

* FOR ILLUSTRATIVE PURPOSES. THE 2009 SUPERVISORY CAPITAL ASSESSMENT PROGRAM (SCAP) STRESS TEST REQUIRED COVERED FIRMS TO MEET A QUANTITATIVE 4
PERCENT TIER 1 COMMON CAPITAL RATIO. PREVIOUSLY, REGULATIONS REQUIRED THAT FIRMS’ TIER 1 CAPITAL BE PREDOMINANTLY MADE OF COMMON EQUITY, BUT DID NOT
SPECIFY REQUIRED LEVELS. ** INCLUDES BOTH A 4.5% MINIMUM AND A 2.5% CAPITAL CONSERVATION BUFFER. *** INCLUDING BOTH CHANGES IN RISK-WEIGHTS AND
INCREASED DEDUCTIONS. THE ADJUSTMENT FOR RISK WEIGHTED ASSETS REFLECTS THE AVERAGE OF DISCLOSED BASEL I AND BASEL III RISK WEIGHTED ASSETS FOR BANK
OF AMERICA, WELLS FARGO, CITIGROUP AND JPMORGAN AS OF SEPTEMBER 2012. OTHER BANKS MAY SEE DIFFERENT CHANGES.
SOURCE: COMPANY FILINGS AND TREASURY ANALYSIS.
                                                                                                                                                       3
Bolstering Bank Capital II
 A SAFER
FINANCIAL
 SYSTEM




 On top of the more-stringent Basel III                             2012 Bank Capital Standards
  requirements, the largest internationally-active               Tier 1 Common Stock, as a Percent of Risk-Weighted Assets
  banks must hold an additional capital cushion so
  that they can:                                                    Potential common equity                1%
            o   Better withstand financial stress.           surcharge on banks that expand
            o   Bear the costs of the risks they create.
            o   Allow smaller banks that pose less risk to     Common equity surcharge on             1% - 2.5%
                compete on a more level playing field.                size and complexity
 Additional capital surcharges discourage banks
  from becoming big and complex in the first
  place.
            o   Large banks will face a surcharge of
                between 1 percent and 2.5 percent based
                on their size and complexity.                           Common                         Common
            o   To curb further growth, large banks could                Equity                         Equity
                face an additional 1 percent surcharge if                 7%                             7%
                they increase in size and complexity.
 Going forward, banks around the world will also
  be required to adhere to a new international
  leverage ratio that:
            o   Sets a floor on the amount of capital a
                bank must hold against all of its assets,      Minimum Requirements Minimum Requirements
                regardless of their risk.                           for All Banks   for Global Systemically
            o   Brings overseas firms more in line with a          Under Basel III      Important Banks
                tougher leverage ratio that has long been
                applied to U.S. banks.
                                                                                                                             4
Ruling Out Extraordinary Support
  A SAFER
 FINANCIAL
  SYSTEM




To help end the perception of “too-big-to-fail,” new rules have significantly curtailed or
eliminated many of the powers used to stabilize the financial system during the crisis…

                                                                                             Changes under
Program                                    Description
                                                                                             Regulatory Reform
                                           Guaranteed more than $3 trillion of money         TARP legislation prohibits use of the ESF for
                                           market mutual fund shares when faced with         the establishment of any future guarantee
Money Market Fund Guarantee Program
                                           a broad-based run; guarantee backed by            programs for the United States money market
                                           Exchange Stabilization Fund (ESF).                mutual fund industry.
                                                                                             Dodd-Frank prohibits §13(3) lending to
                                           Provided liquidity facilities for both specific   insolvent borrowers and requires “broad-
Federal Reserve Act §13(3) lending         institutions (e.g., AIG, Bear Stearns) and        based” program eligibility. A program
                                           financing markets (e.g., CPFF, TALF).             structured for a single and specific company is
                                                                                             prohibited.
                                                                                             Open bank assistance and guarantees not
                                           Provided open bank assistance, including
                                                                                             permitted except for widely-available guarantee
                                           the use of federal guarantees on asset pools
FDIC Systemic Risk Determination                                                             programs pursuant to “Liquidity Event
                                           and bank debt to support term unsecured
                                                                                             Determination,” which require joint resolution of
                                           financing.
                                                                                             approval by Congress.

… and many of the key crisis response programs are being wound down.

Program                                    Description                                        Expiration
                                           Up to $700 billion troubled asset purchase
Troubled Asset Relief Program (TARP)                                                          TARP purchase authority terminated in 2010.
                                           authority to support financial system.
                                           Provided authority to purchase GSE
                                                                                              HERA purchase authority terminated at end
Housing and Economic Recovery Act (HERA)   obligations and securities to support GSEs
                                                                                              of 2009.
                                           and the housing market.
                                           Provided federal guarantees on nearly $350
                                                                                              TLGP guarantees on bank debt will expire at
FDIC Bank Debt Guarantee Program (TLGP)    billion of bank debt to support term
                                                                                              the end of 2012.
                                           unsecured financing during the crisis.
                                                                                                                                             5
New Tools to Mitigate Financial Threats
 A SAFER
FINANCIAL
 SYSTEM




Meanwhile, Wall Street Reform gave regulators new powers to support financial stability, so that
taxpayers do not bear the burden of the firms’ mistakes.


                       Pre-Crisis                                           Post-Wall Street Reform
                       Banks were required to effectively meet a Tier 1     Today, the largest, most complex banks and designated
                       capital standard of 6% of their risk-weighted        nonbanks will be required to hold up to 9.5% of their risk-
Capital                assets, without a clearly-defined amount of          weighted assets in the form of higher-quality Tier 1 common
                       higher-quality common equity.                        equity.

M&A Limits                                                                  In addition, no financial firm can grow through acquisition in
                       10% nationwide deposit limit.
on Size                                                                     excess of 10% of all financial firm liabilities.

                                                                            Ability to subject any nonbank financial firm whose failure
Supervision of         Voluntary SEC program for supervising securities
                                                                            could pose a threat to U.S. financial stability to enhanced
Nonbanks               firms on a consolidated basis.
                                                                            supervision.

                       Lending limits for banks (not including derivative   Exposure limits on largest bank holding companies and
Counterparty Limits    exposures).                                          designated nonbanks across all types of exposures.

Securities Activity                                                         Volcker Rule prohibits proprietary trading by banks and their
                       Limits only on certain holdings of banks.
Limits                                                                      affiliates.

                                                                       Mandatory central clearing, exchange trading and trade
                       A largely unregulated derivatives market lacked
                                                                       reporting improve transparency and risk management. New
Derivatives            transparency and posed significant risk
                                                                       capital and margin requirements makes derivatives trading
                       management challenges for firms and regulators.
                                                                       safer.

                                                                            Firms must submit living wills documenting how they will be
Resolution                                                                  wound down without leaving taxpayers on the hook.
                       Limited ability to wind down systemically
Authority and Living   important financial institutions.
                                                                            Regulators have new authorities to wind down systemically
                                                                            important financial institutions without putting the economy
Wills
                                                                            or taxpayers at risk.
                                                                                                                                          6
CONCENTRATION
  IN CONTEXT
                  A Consolidating Banking Industry I
The U.S. banking industry has been consolidating at roughly the same pace over the last few
decades, even after factoring in that several large banks acquired weaker competitors during
the financial crisis.

                                                  Total Assets of the Four Largest
PERCENT OF                                          U.S. Depository Institutions                                                  TRILLIONS OF
INDUSTRY ASSETS                                                                                                                   U.S. DOLLARS
45%                                                                                                                                     41%  7
                                                                                  The financial crisis did
                                                                                  not significantly affect
                                                                                  the long-term pace of
                                                                                  bank consolidation.                                          6

                                                                                                                                       $5.7T
                                                                                                                                               5
30%

                               Assets as a                                                                                                     4
                                                           21%
                               Share of the
                                 Industry
                                  (left axis)
                                                                                                                                               3

15%       12%
                                                           $1.6T
                                                                                                                                               2


          $0.6T                                                                                                                                1
                                              Assets
                                           in Dollars                 2001                                          2007-09
                                            (right axis)           RECESSION                                       RECESSION
 0%                                                                                                                                            -
           1994


                   '95


                         '96


                                '97


                                        '98


                                                 '99


                                                           '00


                                                                     '01


                                                                           '02


                                                                                 '03


                                                                                        '04


                                                                                               '05


                                                                                                      '06


                                                                                                             '07


                                                                                                                     '08


                                                                                                                           '09


                                                                                                                                 '10


                                                                                                                                       '11
SOURCE: SNL FINANCIAL, FEDERAL RESERVE, FDIC, IMF, BANKSCOPE, EUROSTAT, Y-9 BHC.

                                                                                                                                               7
CONCENTRATION
  IN CONTEXT
                                       A Consolidating Banking Industry II
   However, the United States is among the least concentrated banking system of any major
   economy and among the smallest banking system relative to the size of its economy.


                                                                  Bank Concentration, 2011*
                                    100%                                                                 Sweden      Netherlands
                                                                                            Belgium
                                                                                                                                       Switzerland
                                                                                                                             Switzerland
TOP 4 BANKS AS A PERCENT OF TOTAL




                                    80%                   Italy
                                                                  Canada

                                                           Germany                           France
         BANKING ASSETS




                                    60%                                                                       U.K.
                                                        Japan


                                    40%
                                                U.S.



                                    20%



                                     0%
                                           0%          100%                   200%                300%                  400%                     500%

                                                                           TOP 4 BANKS AS A PERCENT OF GDP

  * NOTE: THESE NUMBERS REFLECT LOCAL ACCOUNTING CONVENTIONS
  (E.G., U.S. GAAP, IFRS) AND THEREFORE MAY NOT BE DIRECTLY COMPARABLE.

  SOURCE: SNL FINANCIAL, FEDERAL RESERVE, FDIC, IMF, BANKSCOPE, Y-9 BHC.

                                                                                                                                                     8
CONCENTRATION
  IN CONTEXT
                Credit Sources in International Context
The United States has a diversified financial system that is less dependent on banks as a source
of credit than in many other countries. Here, markets play a much larger role, which means
businesses and families are less reliant on large institutions to provide financing.


                          Where Does Credit Come From in Different Countries?

                                                                                      0%
                                                                                            10%
                       25%                     22%
       32%                                                                            14%
                                                    Euro
                U.S.                         6%
                                                    Zone
                                                                                            U.K.
                                                           59%
                                              13%
         11%                                                                                      76%
                    32%




                                             Bank Loans           The U.K. and the
        In the U.S., banks                                        Euro Zone are far
        provide only a                                            more dependent on
        quarter of the
                                             Capital Markets
                                                                  their banks for
        credit, with the                                          credit.
        rest coming from                     Money Market Funds
        outside the
        banking system.                      Corporate Bonds




SOURCE: TREASURY ANALYSIS AND JPMORGAN.

                                                                                                        9
MARKET
                RESPONSE
                                   Distinguishing Financial Firms I
     If investors still perceived large banks as “too-big-to-fail,” we would expect to see persistently
     low credit spreads with little variation between firms. But in the aftermath of the crisis,
     investors are increasingly distinguishing between financial institutions, as measured by a wider
     variance in their credit default swap (CDS) spreads that markets use to assess credit risk.

                                                                Large U.S. Bank 5-Year CDS Spreads

                           1100

                           1000

                             900
                                                                                                                       Large bank stress
5-YEAR CDS SPREAD (BPS)




                            500                                                                                           test results
                                                                                       Lehman Bros.
                                                                                        bankruptcy                                         Greek, Irish, and
                            400                                                                                                              Portuguese
                                                   AVERAGE                                                                                  spreads spike
                            300
                                                   RANGE BETWEEN
                            200                    MIN & MAX

                            100

                               0
                               Jan '05           Jan '06           Jan '07           Jan '08          Jan '09          Jan '10             Jan '11             Jan '12



                                                  PRE-CRISIS                                                                            POST-CRISIS
                          Before the crisis, there was little differentiation between the                       After the crisis, there was significant differentiation between
                          CDS spreads of large financial firms and low responsiveness                               the CDS spreads of large financial firms and higher
                                                to external events.                                                           responsiveness to external events.
    NOTE: INCLUDES BANK OF AMERICA, CITIGROUP, GOLDMAN SACHS, JPMORGAN, MORGAN STANLEY, WELLS FARGO.
    SOURCE: BLOOMBERG.
                                                                                                                                                                          10
MARKET
 RESPONSE
            Distinguishing Financial Firms II
If investors perceived large banks as “too-big-to-fail,” we would expect their borrowing costs to
be low and vary little by the size of the institution or its activities. That was the case before the
crisis. But today, bank borrowing costs have increased significantly for the largest, most
complex institutions.


                        Large and Regional U.S. Bank Five-Year Funding Spreads
                                                    230


                                                                                 In the wake of the financial crisis, borrowing
                                                                                 costs for large banks have risen far more
                                                                                 than for smaller, regional banks.
                              170
                                                                    2012 AVG

      140         140

                                                                                 2012 AVG                                110        110
                                                                    +84 bps
                                         100
                                                                                 +23 bps
                                                               85                                 85
                                                                                 2006 AVG    73                75   75
                                                                                                          69                   70
 61          62          60                    63                   2006 AVG
                                    55                    57



                                                                        Pre-crisis
                                                                        (June 2006)
Bank of     Citigroup   Goldman JPMorgan       Morgan Wells Fargo                           Fifth Third    PNC      KeyCorp SunTrust
America                  Sachs                 Stanley                  Post-crisis
                                                                        (September 2012)
                          LARGE BANKS                                                                     REGIONAL BANKS

SOURCE: BLOOMBERG AND TREASURY DEPARTMENT ANALYSIS.

                                                                                                                                     11

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Strengthening Our Financial System

  • 1. Strengthening Our Financial System D E CE MB E R 2 0 1 2
  • 2. Introduction Our financial system is fundamentally stronger than it was four years ago, when we endured the worst financial crisis since the Great Depression. Our banks have added more than $440 billion of fresh capital, putting them on firmer footing to support lending to consumers and businesses. Our financial institutions today are also significantly less reliant on short-term financing from private investors, who fled during the crisis at the first signs of market stress. Even as policymakers took the necessary steps to stabilize our financial system, they also recognized the precedent those actions might set. So they put in place a series of measures to help eliminate the perception that any institution is too big to fail and avoid a repeat of the Fall of 2008. Regulators face new limitations on emergency authorities employed during the crisis. The Federal Reserve can no longer provide direct support to individual institutions, as it did with AIG. And the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation’s authority to guarantee the financing of bank holding companies was curtailed. Meanwhile, Wall Street Reform gave regulators new legal powers to facilitate the orderly wind down of large, failing financial firms. If the government is forced to step in, equity holders will be wiped out, management will be replaced, and the institution will be dismantled. That way, taxpayers will never again have to bear the cost of financial firms’ mistakes. To be sure, our banking system has grown more consolidated in the aftermath of the financial crisis – a trend that has been taking hold over the last few decades. Yet, compared to its peers, the United States has the least concentrated banking system of any major advanced economy – and one of the smallest banking systems relative to the size of its economy. Some early evidence also suggests that we are making progress addressing the perception that institutions can still be “too-big-to-fail” in the post-crisis marketplace. For example, investors are increasingly distinguishing between financial institutions, as measured by a wider variance in credit default swap spreads among the largest banks. Bank borrowing costs have also increased significantly for the largest, most complex institutions. We still have more work to do, but all of this is welcome news for those of us who want a safer, fairer and stronger financial system. 1
  • 3. Stronger Balance Sheets A SAFER FINANCIAL SYSTEM U.S. banks have nearly doubled their capital levels since the lows during the financial crisis in order to cushion against unexpected losses, while supporting lending and economic growth. Meanwhile, banks have almost cut in half their dependence on short-term financing, establishing a more stable funding base. Tier 1 Capital Ratios and Short-term Funding for the U.S. Banking Industry INDEX (2007 Q1 = 100) 150 150 U.S. banks have added more than $440 billion 2007 Q1 since the crisis. Tier 1 Common Capital Ratio 100 100 Short-term Funding Ratio 50 50 U.S. banks have reduced short-term financing by more than $560 billion since the crisis. 0 0 2001 '02 '03 '04 '05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 Q1 SOURCE: FEDERAL RESERVE (Y-9C, FLOW OF FUNDS), HAVER ANALYTICS, TREASURY/FSOC ANALYSIS. 2
  • 4. Bolstering Bank Capital I A SAFER FINANCIAL SYSTEM Tougher new capital standards would require more loss-absorbing capital and, in effect, would nearly double the amount of capital all banks are required to hold. TIER 1 CAPITAL, AS A PERCENT OF RISK-WEIGHTED ASSETS TOTAL TIER 1 EQUIVALENT 11% TOTAL TIER 1 2% 8.5% TOTAL TIER 1 1.5% 6% Add’l ADJUSTED FOR Common ~2% MORE STRINGENT Equity Tier 1 Common CRITERIA UNDER Equity BASEL III*** 9% Common 7%** Equity ~4%* Pre-2010 Capital Requirements Stronger Capital Requirements Stronger Capital Requirements Under Basel I Under Basel III Using Basel III Risk Weights U.S. regulators have proposed more Basel I required that for banks to be Basel III would require banks to hold stringent risk-weights, which would require “well-capitalized,” they had to set aside more Tier 1 capital overall, and more of banks to hold more capital against their a preponderance of their Tier 1 capital that capital in the form of common assets. Combined with the heightened Basel in the form of common equity, which equity. III standards, banks would, in effect, nearly more effectively absorbs losses. double the amount of capital they hold. * FOR ILLUSTRATIVE PURPOSES. THE 2009 SUPERVISORY CAPITAL ASSESSMENT PROGRAM (SCAP) STRESS TEST REQUIRED COVERED FIRMS TO MEET A QUANTITATIVE 4 PERCENT TIER 1 COMMON CAPITAL RATIO. PREVIOUSLY, REGULATIONS REQUIRED THAT FIRMS’ TIER 1 CAPITAL BE PREDOMINANTLY MADE OF COMMON EQUITY, BUT DID NOT SPECIFY REQUIRED LEVELS. ** INCLUDES BOTH A 4.5% MINIMUM AND A 2.5% CAPITAL CONSERVATION BUFFER. *** INCLUDING BOTH CHANGES IN RISK-WEIGHTS AND INCREASED DEDUCTIONS. THE ADJUSTMENT FOR RISK WEIGHTED ASSETS REFLECTS THE AVERAGE OF DISCLOSED BASEL I AND BASEL III RISK WEIGHTED ASSETS FOR BANK OF AMERICA, WELLS FARGO, CITIGROUP AND JPMORGAN AS OF SEPTEMBER 2012. OTHER BANKS MAY SEE DIFFERENT CHANGES. SOURCE: COMPANY FILINGS AND TREASURY ANALYSIS. 3
  • 5. Bolstering Bank Capital II A SAFER FINANCIAL SYSTEM  On top of the more-stringent Basel III 2012 Bank Capital Standards requirements, the largest internationally-active Tier 1 Common Stock, as a Percent of Risk-Weighted Assets banks must hold an additional capital cushion so that they can: Potential common equity 1% o Better withstand financial stress. surcharge on banks that expand o Bear the costs of the risks they create. o Allow smaller banks that pose less risk to Common equity surcharge on 1% - 2.5% compete on a more level playing field. size and complexity  Additional capital surcharges discourage banks from becoming big and complex in the first place. o Large banks will face a surcharge of between 1 percent and 2.5 percent based on their size and complexity. Common Common o To curb further growth, large banks could Equity Equity face an additional 1 percent surcharge if 7% 7% they increase in size and complexity.  Going forward, banks around the world will also be required to adhere to a new international leverage ratio that: o Sets a floor on the amount of capital a bank must hold against all of its assets, Minimum Requirements Minimum Requirements regardless of their risk. for All Banks for Global Systemically o Brings overseas firms more in line with a Under Basel III Important Banks tougher leverage ratio that has long been applied to U.S. banks. 4
  • 6. Ruling Out Extraordinary Support A SAFER FINANCIAL SYSTEM To help end the perception of “too-big-to-fail,” new rules have significantly curtailed or eliminated many of the powers used to stabilize the financial system during the crisis… Changes under Program Description Regulatory Reform Guaranteed more than $3 trillion of money TARP legislation prohibits use of the ESF for market mutual fund shares when faced with the establishment of any future guarantee Money Market Fund Guarantee Program a broad-based run; guarantee backed by programs for the United States money market Exchange Stabilization Fund (ESF). mutual fund industry. Dodd-Frank prohibits §13(3) lending to Provided liquidity facilities for both specific insolvent borrowers and requires “broad- Federal Reserve Act §13(3) lending institutions (e.g., AIG, Bear Stearns) and based” program eligibility. A program financing markets (e.g., CPFF, TALF). structured for a single and specific company is prohibited. Open bank assistance and guarantees not Provided open bank assistance, including permitted except for widely-available guarantee the use of federal guarantees on asset pools FDIC Systemic Risk Determination programs pursuant to “Liquidity Event and bank debt to support term unsecured Determination,” which require joint resolution of financing. approval by Congress. … and many of the key crisis response programs are being wound down. Program Description Expiration Up to $700 billion troubled asset purchase Troubled Asset Relief Program (TARP) TARP purchase authority terminated in 2010. authority to support financial system. Provided authority to purchase GSE HERA purchase authority terminated at end Housing and Economic Recovery Act (HERA) obligations and securities to support GSEs of 2009. and the housing market. Provided federal guarantees on nearly $350 TLGP guarantees on bank debt will expire at FDIC Bank Debt Guarantee Program (TLGP) billion of bank debt to support term the end of 2012. unsecured financing during the crisis. 5
  • 7. New Tools to Mitigate Financial Threats A SAFER FINANCIAL SYSTEM Meanwhile, Wall Street Reform gave regulators new powers to support financial stability, so that taxpayers do not bear the burden of the firms’ mistakes. Pre-Crisis Post-Wall Street Reform Banks were required to effectively meet a Tier 1 Today, the largest, most complex banks and designated capital standard of 6% of their risk-weighted nonbanks will be required to hold up to 9.5% of their risk- Capital assets, without a clearly-defined amount of weighted assets in the form of higher-quality Tier 1 common higher-quality common equity. equity. M&A Limits In addition, no financial firm can grow through acquisition in 10% nationwide deposit limit. on Size excess of 10% of all financial firm liabilities. Ability to subject any nonbank financial firm whose failure Supervision of Voluntary SEC program for supervising securities could pose a threat to U.S. financial stability to enhanced Nonbanks firms on a consolidated basis. supervision. Lending limits for banks (not including derivative Exposure limits on largest bank holding companies and Counterparty Limits exposures). designated nonbanks across all types of exposures. Securities Activity Volcker Rule prohibits proprietary trading by banks and their Limits only on certain holdings of banks. Limits affiliates. Mandatory central clearing, exchange trading and trade A largely unregulated derivatives market lacked reporting improve transparency and risk management. New Derivatives transparency and posed significant risk capital and margin requirements makes derivatives trading management challenges for firms and regulators. safer. Firms must submit living wills documenting how they will be Resolution wound down without leaving taxpayers on the hook. Limited ability to wind down systemically Authority and Living important financial institutions. Regulators have new authorities to wind down systemically important financial institutions without putting the economy Wills or taxpayers at risk. 6
  • 8. CONCENTRATION IN CONTEXT A Consolidating Banking Industry I The U.S. banking industry has been consolidating at roughly the same pace over the last few decades, even after factoring in that several large banks acquired weaker competitors during the financial crisis. Total Assets of the Four Largest PERCENT OF U.S. Depository Institutions TRILLIONS OF INDUSTRY ASSETS U.S. DOLLARS 45% 41% 7 The financial crisis did not significantly affect the long-term pace of bank consolidation. 6 $5.7T 5 30% Assets as a 4 21% Share of the Industry (left axis) 3 15% 12% $1.6T 2 $0.6T 1 Assets in Dollars 2001 2007-09 (right axis) RECESSION RECESSION 0% - 1994 '95 '96 '97 '98 '99 '00 '01 '02 '03 '04 '05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 SOURCE: SNL FINANCIAL, FEDERAL RESERVE, FDIC, IMF, BANKSCOPE, EUROSTAT, Y-9 BHC. 7
  • 9. CONCENTRATION IN CONTEXT A Consolidating Banking Industry II However, the United States is among the least concentrated banking system of any major economy and among the smallest banking system relative to the size of its economy. Bank Concentration, 2011* 100% Sweden Netherlands Belgium Switzerland Switzerland TOP 4 BANKS AS A PERCENT OF TOTAL 80% Italy Canada Germany France BANKING ASSETS 60% U.K. Japan 40% U.S. 20% 0% 0% 100% 200% 300% 400% 500% TOP 4 BANKS AS A PERCENT OF GDP * NOTE: THESE NUMBERS REFLECT LOCAL ACCOUNTING CONVENTIONS (E.G., U.S. GAAP, IFRS) AND THEREFORE MAY NOT BE DIRECTLY COMPARABLE. SOURCE: SNL FINANCIAL, FEDERAL RESERVE, FDIC, IMF, BANKSCOPE, Y-9 BHC. 8
  • 10. CONCENTRATION IN CONTEXT Credit Sources in International Context The United States has a diversified financial system that is less dependent on banks as a source of credit than in many other countries. Here, markets play a much larger role, which means businesses and families are less reliant on large institutions to provide financing. Where Does Credit Come From in Different Countries? 0% 10% 25% 22% 32% 14% Euro U.S. 6% Zone U.K. 59% 13% 11% 76% 32% Bank Loans The U.K. and the In the U.S., banks Euro Zone are far provide only a more dependent on quarter of the Capital Markets their banks for credit, with the credit. rest coming from Money Market Funds outside the banking system. Corporate Bonds SOURCE: TREASURY ANALYSIS AND JPMORGAN. 9
  • 11. MARKET RESPONSE Distinguishing Financial Firms I If investors still perceived large banks as “too-big-to-fail,” we would expect to see persistently low credit spreads with little variation between firms. But in the aftermath of the crisis, investors are increasingly distinguishing between financial institutions, as measured by a wider variance in their credit default swap (CDS) spreads that markets use to assess credit risk. Large U.S. Bank 5-Year CDS Spreads 1100 1000 900 Large bank stress 5-YEAR CDS SPREAD (BPS) 500 test results Lehman Bros. bankruptcy Greek, Irish, and 400 Portuguese AVERAGE spreads spike 300 RANGE BETWEEN 200 MIN & MAX 100 0 Jan '05 Jan '06 Jan '07 Jan '08 Jan '09 Jan '10 Jan '11 Jan '12 PRE-CRISIS POST-CRISIS Before the crisis, there was little differentiation between the After the crisis, there was significant differentiation between CDS spreads of large financial firms and low responsiveness the CDS spreads of large financial firms and higher to external events. responsiveness to external events. NOTE: INCLUDES BANK OF AMERICA, CITIGROUP, GOLDMAN SACHS, JPMORGAN, MORGAN STANLEY, WELLS FARGO. SOURCE: BLOOMBERG. 10
  • 12. MARKET RESPONSE Distinguishing Financial Firms II If investors perceived large banks as “too-big-to-fail,” we would expect their borrowing costs to be low and vary little by the size of the institution or its activities. That was the case before the crisis. But today, bank borrowing costs have increased significantly for the largest, most complex institutions. Large and Regional U.S. Bank Five-Year Funding Spreads 230 In the wake of the financial crisis, borrowing costs for large banks have risen far more than for smaller, regional banks. 170 2012 AVG 140 140 2012 AVG 110 110 +84 bps 100 +23 bps 85 85 2006 AVG 73 75 75 69 70 61 62 60 63 2006 AVG 55 57 Pre-crisis (June 2006) Bank of Citigroup Goldman JPMorgan Morgan Wells Fargo Fifth Third PNC KeyCorp SunTrust America Sachs Stanley Post-crisis (September 2012) LARGE BANKS REGIONAL BANKS SOURCE: BLOOMBERG AND TREASURY DEPARTMENT ANALYSIS. 11