1. The Case for Young People
James Hansen
14 November 2012
Utrecht, Netherlands

2. Global Warming Status
1. Knowledge Gap Between
- What is Understood (scientists)
- What is Known (public)
2. Planetary Emergency
- Climate Inertia  Warming in Pipeline
- Tipping Points  Could Lose Control
3. Bad News & Good News
- CO2 Already in Dangerous Zone
- Multiple Benefits of Solution

3. Earth’s energy imbalance: more energy coming in than going out
ARGO floats have allowed accurate measurement of ocean heat gain since 2005.
Earth is gaining energy at a rate 0.6 W/m2, which is 20 times greater than the rate of
human energy use. That energy gain is equivalent to exploding 400,000 Hiroshima
atomic bombs per day, 365 days per year.

4. Heat storage in upper 2000 meters of ocean during 2003-2008 based on ARGO data.
Knowledge of Earth’s energy imbalance is improving rapidly as ARGO data lengthens.
Data must be averaged over a decade because of El Nino/La Nina and solar variability.
Energy imbalance is smoking gun for human-made increasing greenhouse effect.
Data source: von Schuckmann et al. J. Geophys. Res. 114, C09007, 2009, doi:10.1029/2008JC005237.

5. WHERE EXCESS ENERGY IS GOING

7. Global temperature fluctuates, but the world is getting warmer
Figure 1. Global surface temperature anomalies relative to 1951-1980 average for
(a) annual and 5-year running means through 2010, and (b) 60-month and 132-
month running means through July 2012. Green bars are 2-σ error estimates.
(Hansen, J., Ruedy, R., Sato, M., and Lo, K., 2010: Global surface temperature change, Rev. Geophys. 48, RG4004.)

8. Loaded Climate Dice: global warming is increasing extreme weather events.
Extreme summer heat anomalies now cover about 10% of land area, up from 0.2%.
This is based on observations, not models.
Figure 3. Frequency of occurrence (vertical axis) of local June-July-August
temperature anomalies (relative to 1951-1980 mean) for Northern Hemisphere
land in units of local standard deviation (horizontal axis). Temperature
anomalies in the period 1951-1980 match closely the normal distribution ("bell
curve", shown in green), which is used to define cold (blue), typical (white)
and hot (red) seasons, each with probability 33.3%. The distribution of
anomalies has shifted to the right as a consequence of the global warming of
the past three decades such that cool summers now cover only half of one
side of a six-sided die, white covers one side, red covers four sides, and an
extremely hot (red-brown) anomaly covers half of one side.
Source: Hansen, J., Sato, M., and Ruedy, R., Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci., 2012.

9. June 2011: Record 7.6% of U.S. in ‘Exceptional’ drought category,
simultaneous with record flooding on Mississippi River.

10. Fires Are Increasing World-Wide
Wildfires in Western US have increased 4-fold in 30 years.
Western US area burned
Source: Westerling et al. 2006

11. AT SEA - OCTOBER 28: In this handout satellite image provided by National Oceanic
and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), Hurricane Sandy, pictured at 00:15 UTC,
churns off the east coast on October 28, 2012 in the Atlantic Ocean. Sandy which has
already claimed over 50 lives in the Caribbean is predicted to bring heavy winds and
floodwaters to the mid-atlantic region. (Photo by NASA via Getty Images)

12. Waves pound a lighthouse on the shores of Lake Erie Tuesday, Oct. 30, 2012, near Cleveland.
High winds spinning off the edge of superstorm Sandy took a vicious swipe at northeast Ohio
early Tuesday, uprooting trees, cutting power to hundreds of thousands, closing schools and
flooding parts of major commuter arteries that run along Lake Erie. (Tony Dejak, AP)

13. A huge tree split apart and fell over the front yard and fence of a home on Carpenter Avenue in
the aftermath of Hurricane Sandy on Tuesday, Oct., 30, 2012, in Sea Cliff, N.Y. (AP Photo/Kathy
Kmonicek)

15. ATLANTIC CITY, NJ - OCTOBER 29: Water floods a street ahead of Hurricane Sandy on
October 29, 2012 in Atlantic City, New Jersey. Governor Chris Christie’s emergency
declaration is shutting down the city’s casinos and 30,000 residents were ordered to
evacuate. (Photo by Mario Tama/Getty Images)

16. A parking lot full of yellow cabs is flooded as a result of superstorm Sandy on Tuesday, Oct. 30,
2012 in Hoboken, NJ. (AP Photo/Charles Sykes)

17. North Carolina 12 is buckled from pounding surf leading into Mirlo Beach in Rodanthe, N.C. on
Tuesday, Oct. 30, 2012. People on North Carolina's Outer Banks are facing some flooding and
damage from Hurricane Sandy, but emergency management officials say it could have been
worse. North Carolina Transportation Department spokeswoman Greer Beaty said the highway
was closed Tuesday until crews inspect the road. (AP Photo/The Virginian-Pilot, Steve Earley)

18. A firefighter works to contain a fire that destroyed over 50 homes during Hurricane Sandy on Oct.
30, 2012 in the Breezy Point neighborhood of the Queens borough of New York. At least 33
people were reported killed in the United States by Sandy as millions of people in the eastern
United States have awoken to widespread power outages, flooded homes and downed trees.
New York City was hit especially hard with wide spread power outages and significant flooding in
parts of the city. (Spencer Platt, Getty Images)

19. David Horsey, Los Angeles Times

20. Climate Tipping Points
1. Ice Sheet Disintegration
- Ocean Warming  Ice Shelves Melt
 Ice Streams Surge  Disintegration
2. Species Extermination
- Shifting Climate Zones, Multiple
Stresses, Species Interdependencies
3. Methane Hydrate ‘frozen methane’
- In Tundra & On Continental Shelves
- Depends On Ocean & Ice Sheets

21. Left map: sea ice extent (>15% ice). Right: sea ice concentration (%).
Purple line: climatologic extent (1979-2000). Data: 18 August 2012.
Source: National Snow and Ice Data Center, Boulder, Colorado

22. Jakobshavn Ice Stream in Greenland
Discharge from major
Greenland ice streams
is accelerating markedly.
Source: Prof. Konrad Steffen,
Univ. of Colorado

23. Gravity Satellite Ice Sheet Mass Measurements
Greenland Ice Sheet Antarctic Ice Sheet
Source: Velicogna, I. Geophys. Res. Lett., 36, L19503, doi:10.1029/2009GL040222, 2009.

24. Blue: Sea level change from tide-gauge data (Church J.A. and White N.J., Geophys. Res. Lett. 2006; 33:
L01602).
Red: Univ. Colorado sea level analyses in satellite era (http://www.columbia.edu/~mhs119/SeaLevel/).

25. Figure 1. The broken-wing female Monarch on our butterfly bush.

27. Newly emergent Monarchs, each beside its popped chrysalis, waiting for its wings to dry.

35. Fig. 1. CO2 emissions by fossil fuels (1 ppm CO2 ~ 2.12 GtC). Estimated reserves and
potentially recoverable resources are from EIA (Energy Information Administration)
and GAC (German Advisory Council on Global Change).

36. Restoring Energy Balance Possible
Essential Requirements
1. Quick Coal Phase-Out Necessary
All coal emissions halted in 20 years
2. No Unconventional Fossil Fuels
Tar sands, Oil shale, Methane hydrates
3. Don’t Pursue Last Drops of Oil
Polar regions, Deep ocean, Pristine land

37. What’s Really Happening
1. Tar Sands Agreement with Canada
Pipeline planned to transport oil
2. New Coal-fired Power Plants
Rationalized by ‘Clean Coal’ mirage
3. Mountaintop Removal Continues
Diminishes wind potential of mountains
4. Oil & Gas Extraction Expands
Arctic, offshore, public lands

40. Sophie writing letter to President Obama

41. Intergenerational Justice
Jefferson to Madison: …self-evident that
“Earth belongs in usufruct to the living”*
Native People: obligation to 7th generation
Most Religions: duty to preserve creation
Governments (with fossil interests): we set
emissions at whatever level we choose
Public: when will it become involved?
*Legal right to use something belonging to another

42. Atmospheric Trust Litigation*
1. Atmosphere is a public trust asset
Governments have fiduciary obligation to
manage asset – it is not political discretion
2. Courts can enforce via injunction
Require carbon accounting, with schedule
specified by science
3. Force governments at all levels
* Wood, M., Atmospheric Trust Litigation, in Adjudicating Climate Change: Sub-National, National, and Supra-
National Approaches (William C.G. Burns & Hari M. Osofsky, eds.) (2009, Cambridge University Press

43. Principal References
Earth’s Energy Imbalance and Implications : Hansen, J., M. Sato, P. Kharecha,
and K. von Schuckmann, Atmos Chem Phys, 11, 13421-13449, 2011.
Scientific Case for Avoiding Dangerous Climate Change to Protect Young
People and Nature: Hansen, J., P. Kharecha, M. Sato, F. Ackerman, P.J. Hearty, O.
Hoegh-Guldberg, S.-L. Hsu, F. Krueger, C. Parmesan, S. Rahmstorf, J. Rockstrom, E.J.
Rohling, J. Sachs, P. Smith, K. Steffen, L. Van Susteren, K. von Schuckmann, J.C.
Zachos. Published and citeable at http://arxiv.org/abs/1110.1365
Public Perception of Climate Change and the New Climate Dice : Hansen,
J., M. Sato, and R. Ruedy. Published and citeable at http://arxiv.org/abs/1204.1286
PDFs of these and related papers available at:
www.columbia.edu/~jeh1

44. Problem & Solution
1. Fossil Fuels are Cheapest Energy
- Subsidized & Do Not Pay Costs
- Solution: Rising Price on Carbon
2. Regulations also Required
- Efficiency of Vehicles, Buildings,e.g.
- Carbon Price Provides Enforcement
3. Technology Development Needed
- Driven by Certainty of Carbon Price
- Government Role Limited

45. Fee & Dividend
Fee: Collected at Domestic Mine/Port of Entry
Covers all Oil, Gas, Coal  No Leakage
Dividend: Equal Shares to All Legal Residents
Not One Dime to the Government.
Merits:
Transparent. Market-based. Stimulates Innovation.
Does Not Enlarge Government.
Leaves Energy Decisions to Individuals.
A Conservative Energy & Climate Plan.

46. Stresses on Coral Reefs
Coral Reef off Fiji
(Photo credit: Kevin Roland)

47. One of Hearty’s boulders on the coastal ridge of North Eleuthera Island, Bahamas
See Hearty, P.J., Quaternary Research, 48, 326-338, 1997.

48. Notes of Optimism
1. China
Rational decision-making; large
investments in carbon-free energy
2. Legal Approach
Judicial branch less influenced by
fossil fuel money (than executive and
legislative branches)

49. Web Sites
www.columbia.edu/~jeh1
www.350.org
www.MillionLetterMarch.org
www.CitizensClimateLobby.org

50. Sophie explains 2 Watts of forcing to brother Connor
Sophie Explains GH Warming: Connor only counts 1 Watt
“It’s 2 W/m2 Forcing.”
Weren’t you
coaching
Sophie?

51. Surface Melt on Greenland
Melt descending
into a moulin,
a vertical shaft
carrying water
to ice sheet base.
Source: Roger Braithwaite,
University of Manchester (UK)

52. Global Action Status
1. Huge Gap: Rhetoric & Reality
- Rhetoric: Planet in Peril
- Policies: Small Perturbation to BAU
2. Greenwash/Disinformation Winning
- Appeasement of Fossil Interests
- Still Waiting for a Winston Churchill
3. Kyoto & Copenhagen Failures
- Kyoto  accelerating emissions
- Copenhagen  still “cap-&-trade”

53. Cap-and-Trade Flaws
1. Designed for Banks & Fossil Interests
Impossible to exclude big money
2. Price Volatility
Discourages clean energy investments
3. Ineffectual
Real carbon reductions small
4. Cannot be made global
China/India will not (& should not) accept caps

54. Lauren Emma (age 2½ days) and Jake (age 2½ years)

55. Opa reads the letter to President Obama.

56. Sophie, Opa and Connor celebrate good letter.