Ukraine Monthly Economic Review, July 2017

1
Pleasenotetherisknotificationsandexplanationsattheendofthisdocument
July 2017
Ukraine: Sovereign ratings
LCYrating S&P Moody's Fitch
Long-term B- Caa3 B-
Short-term B n.a. n.a.
Outlook Stable Stable Stable
FCYrating
Long-term B- Caa3 B-
Short-term B n.a. B
Outlook Stable Stable Stable
Latestreview Dec-16 Feb-17 Apr-17
Source: Thomson Reuters, RBI/Raiffeisen RESEARCH
Ukraine: Key economic figures and forecasts
Real Sector 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017e 2018f
GDP (UAH bn) 1,465 1,587 1,989 2,383 2,808 3,110
GDP (% yoy) 0.0 -6.6 -9.8 2.3 1.5 3.0
Domestic demand (% yoy) 1.7 -11.6 -12.2 8.2 2.4 0.4
Terms of trade (% yoy) 2.1 2.1 -2.1 1.2 0.5 4.4
CPI (avg, % yoy) -0.3 12.1 48.7 13.9 12.0 7.4
CPI (eop, % yoy) 0.5 24.9 43.3 12.4 9.5 6.0
PPI (eop, % yoy) 1.7 31.8 25.4 35.7 13.6 3.5
Real disposable income (% yoy) 5.3 -8.4 -22.3 0.3 n/a n/a
ExternalSector
C/A balance (% of GDP) -9.2 -3.5 -0.2 -3.6 -4.1 -3.6
Goods export (% yoy) -8.3 -14.5 -29.9 -5.2 11.6 9.5
Goods import (% yoy) -5.8 -29.0 -32.6 4.4 11.8 3.6
FDI (USD bn) 4.1 0.3 3.0 3.4 1.5 3.0
Total external debt (% of GDP) 79.1 95.7 131.7 121.7 114.5 108.8
Gross FX reserves (USD bn) 20.4 7.5 13.3 15.5 20.0 22.0
MonetarySector
USD/UAH (eop) 8.24 15.82 24.03 27.10 28.00 28.50
FiscalSector
Central state deficit (% of GDP) -4.4 -4.9 -2.3 -3.0 -3.2 -2.7
Public debt (% of GDP) 40.7 52.9 72.6 76.1 72.8 65.3
Source: State Statistics Service, National Bank of Ukraine, Ministry of Finance, RBI/Raiffeisen RESEARCH
Financial Analysts
Sergii Drobot, Raiffeisen Bank Aval, Kyiv
Ukraine Economist
+380 44 5905621
sergii.drobot@aval.ua
Editor:
Andreas Schwabe, CFA, RBI Vienna
Senior Economist CEE
+43 1 71707 1389
andreas.schwabe@rbinternational.com
Source: State Statistics Service, RBI/Raiffeisen RESEARCH
GDP growth and inflation
-50
-25
0
25
50
-15
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
GDP (% yoy) Inflation (eop, % yoy), r.h.s.
Highlights
 On 13 July, the Ukrainian Parliament approved a draft of the pension reform in
the first reading. Thus, Ukraine moved one step closer to the next IMF tranche,
and in our base case scenario the fourth review may be accomplished and the
fifth tranche be released this fall.
 After the decline in industrial output earlier this year, recent development shows
a return to growth. Retail sales dynamics remain strong. Nevertheless, the
National Bank slightly cut its growth estimate for this year on the weak H1 and a
weaker harvest estimate. We keep our conservative growth estimate of 1.5%
yoy for the time being.
 Inflation surprised to the upside to 15.6% on higher food prices in June. We
now see growing risk that inflation may leave targeted for this year range (8%
yoy +/-2 pp) from the upper bound, i.e. resulting in low double-digit inflation at
year-end. So far, we keep our 2017 forecast at 9.5% yoy (eop).
 UAH strengthened vis-a-vis the dollar in July, falling below the level of USD/UAH
26 and allowing the NBU to increase FX reserves to almost USD 18 bn. With
inflation risks elevated, the NBU stopped cutting its key rate and kept it stable at
12.5% in July and August. However, some additional restrictions on the FX
market were removed or may be removed soon.

2
Ukraine
Economic Policy
On 13 July, the Ukrainian Parliament approved a draft of the
pension reform in the first reading. The project was supported by 282
deputies (out of 321). Given the high social sensitivity of the reform, we do not
discard the possibility of some changes and dilatory practices before the final
approval. Nevertheless, Ukraine moved one step closer to the next IMF
tranche, and in our base case scenario the fourth review may be
accomplished and the fifth tranche be released this fall.
Regarding the land reform, it seems that the Fund shifted this
requirement to the next review. The Communications Department of the
IMF stated the following: “The focus of this review is on pension reform and on
measures to speed up privatization and ensure concrete results in anti-
corruption efforts. It’s equally important that the program remains on track and
fiscal and energy sector policies remain consistent with program commitments.
Land reform remains an important condition under the program, however,
given the need to design the reform well and reach consensus on key steps
ahead, there was a need to reset its timing to later in the year”.
Recently, the President signed the law “On the Constitutional Court of Ukraine”
which may be count as an anti-corruption step, while given the experience of
previous reviews, privatization is not a strict requirement. Thereby, we
believe that the tranche will arrive right after finalization of the
pension reform.
Real Sector
Industrial production is recovering after the decline early this
year caused by the economic blockade in Donbas. Growth of the
industrial production index accelerated from 1.2% yoy in May to 3.8% yoy in
June. In seasonally adjusted terms, growth amounted to 0.5% mom.
Manufacturing was the leader in June – hiked by 8% yoy or by 1.3% mom.
Pharmaceuticals, machinery and light industry went up by 19.1% yoy, 15.9%
yoy and 10.9% yoy correspondingly. However, due to deficit of raw
materials, coke production plunged by 4.2% yoy. Mining industry
demonstrated a modest growth by 0.7% yoy (+0.1% mom) after four months
of recession. Coal mining and oil/gas extraction industries were recovering
(+7.2% yoy and +3.6% yoy respectively), but there was still a downturn in
iron ores mining (-4% yoy). The Energy sector was the major outlier with 9.6%
yoy decline in June (mainly due to reduction in electricity production by
thermal power plants), albeit in seasonally adjusted terms it went up by 1.1%
mom. To sum up, industrial production decreased by 0.4% yoy in H1 2017
owing to an unfavourable start into this year.
Retail sales slightly decelerated in June – from 10.7% yoy in May to
9% yoy. Compared to the previous month, there was a decline by 2% mom.
Nevertheless, cumulatively, retail sales rose by 7.1% yoy due to the growth of
wages (nominal wage hiked by 37.9% yoy in June, while real – by 18.9%
yoy).
The National Bank of Ukraine (NBU) downgraded its GDP forecast for 2017
by 0.3pp to 1.6% yoy on the back of “worse economic performance in the
first half of the year and a downward revision of grain harvest estimates”. On
the other hand, given outstanding results in construction and retail sales, some
market analysts expect much higher growth this year at about 3% yoy. The
average for the 2017 growth forecasts recorded by Bloomberg is at around
Industrial output growth by sector (% yoy)
2.6
0.5
4.5
-0.5
1.3
3.7
0.8
17.5
-0.1
6.7
9.7
9.9
2.1
-0.4
-6.0
3.6
-5.6
5.1
8.0
3.9
-…
-3.3
0.0
7.6
-2.7
7.4
-30 -20 -10 0 10 20
Industrial production
Mining
Manufacuring (all)
Utilities
of manufacturing:
Food
Light industry
Woodwork and paper
Coke, refined products
Chemical
Pharmaceutical products
Rubber, plastic and mineral…
Metallurgy
Machine building
Jan-Jun 2016 to Jan-Jun 2015 Jan-Jun 2017 to Jan-Jun 2016
Source: IMF, RBI/Raiffeisen RESEARCH
IMF EFF program financing
USD4.9bn
1st tranche
29%
USD1.7bn
2nd tranche
10%
USD1.0bn
3d tranche
6%
USD1.0bn
4th tranche
6%
USD8.3bn
Remaining funding
49%
Industrial Production Index (s.a., 2010 = 100)
60
70
80
90
100
110
120
130
Jan-08
Aug-08
Mar-09
Oct-09
May-10
Dec-10
Jul-11
Feb-12
Sep-12
Apr-13
Nov-13
Jun-14
Jan-15
Aug-15
Mar-16
Oct-16
May-17

3
Ukraine
2% yoy. We project 1.5% yoy economic growth this year as
economic blockade of Donbas caused significant industrial
output reduction in the beginning of the year and growth in
energy imports. Thus, the risks may be tilted to the upside. Virtually all
forecasts for 2018 lie in a range between 3% and 3.5% yoy.
Inflation
Inflation figures somewhat confounded expectations in June.
Growth of food prices (+3.3% mom) led to an increase in consumer prices by
1.6% mom. As a result, inflation sharply accelerated from 13.5% yoy in May
to 15.6% yoy in June. Prices for vegetables and fruits surged by 16.4% mom
and 13.5% mom respectively on the back of adverse weather conditions this
spring that resulted in a decline of supply. Eggs prices also increased
significantly – by 18.3% mom. Tobacco prices went up by 5.2% mom, while
prices for alcohol grew by 0.9% mom. By contrast, clothes became cheaper in
June (-2.5% mom) which was associated with seasonal effects. There was a
modest growth of communal payments (+0.5% mom) driven by increases in
costs of housing maintenance (+8.9% mom). Growth of transport services costs
by 1.2% mom was offset by the decline of gasoline and oil prices by 1%
mom, as a result, transport prices declined by 0.2% mom in June.
Given the unexpectedly high growth of food prices, we see growing risk
that inflation may leave targeted for this year range (8% yoy +/-
2 pp) from the upper bound, i.e. resulting in low double-digit inflation at
year-end. Nevertheless, we keep our forecast at 9.5% yoy by now.
Meanwhile producer prices continued to fall. In June, the producer
price index (PPI) decreased by 0.6% mom, and producer price inflation
decelerated to 26.3% yoy from 27.1% yoy in May. Prices in mining industry
dropped by 3.4% mom owing to reduction in iron ores prices by 7.4% mom
on the back of stable FX market and decline in global prices. Prices in oil and
gas extraction industry decreased by 1.7% mom. Price dynamics in
manufacturing also descended (-0.5% mom). Prices in coke production and
metallurgy declined by 3% mom and 1.5% respectively. By contrast, prices in
the energy sector slightly increased – by 0.3% mom.
Balance of Payments
The Current Account (C/A) deficit increased from USD 63 mn in
April to USD 194 mn in May. Goods’ export growth rate accelerated
from 8.2% yoy to 21.4% yoy. Food exports hiked by 30.2% yoy owing to a
low statistical base. Exports of metallurgical products improved by 18.7% yoy
thanks to higher global prices. Growth of imports also accelerated – from
11.4% yoy to 40.9% yoy. Imports of mineral products went up by 108.2%
yoy against the backdrop of growing coal and gas purchases. The agricultural
sector pushed imports of chemical products and machinery up by 32.4% yoy
and 48.1% yoy respectively. As a result, merchandise trade balance deficit
deepened to USD 702 mn from USD 394 mn in April. In contrast, the trade
balance of services posted a surplus of USD 198 mn, which is USD 74 mn
higher than in the previous month.
In May, the Financial Account recorded a surplus of USD 556 mn on the back
of reduction of foreign currency (FCY) outside the banking sector by USD 378
mn. FDI inflow remained very low – only USD 14 mn. The Balance of
Payments (BoP) posted a surplus of USD 357 mn in May.
In Jan-May, the C/A deficit was at a level of USD 1.1 bn – similar
Inflation (% yoy)
-10
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
Jan-12
Apr-12
Jul-12
Oct-12
Jan-13
Apr-13
Jul-13
Oct-13
Jan-14
Apr-14
Jul-14
Oct-14
Jan-15
Apr-15
Jul-15
Oct-15
Jan-16
Apr-16
Jul-16
Oct-16
Jan-17
Apr-17
CPI Food prices PPI
Contributions to CPI inflation* (per cent points)
-10
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
Jan-15
Mar-15
May-15
Jul-15
Sep-15
Nov-15
Jan-16
Mar-16
May-16
Jul-16
Sep-16
Nov-16
Jan-17
Mar-17
May-17
Jul-17
Sep-17
Nov-17
Food and non-alcoholic beverages (42%) Alc./cig. (8%)
Energy/utilities (8%) Transport (12%)
Clothing (5%) Other components (25%)
CPI inflation (% yoy)
Source: National Bank of Ukraine, RBI/Raiffeisen RESEARCH
Balance of Payments (USD bn)
-2
-1
0
1
2
Current Account Financial Account
Capital Account Balance of Payments

4
Ukraine
to the previous year figure. Both exports and imports recovered – by 27% yoy
and 23.1% yoy respectively (versus -12.7% yoy and -6.8% yoy in Jan-May
2016). Thanks to the IMF and the EU tranches, and significant reduction of
FCY outside the banking sector, financial account recorded a surplus of USD
1.8 bn. As a result, there was a BoP surplus of USD 743 mn (USD 700 mn
higher than the previous year).
Monetary Policy and Exchange Rate
UAH strengthened vis-a-vis the dollar in July. In mid-July, USD/UAH
rate fell below the level of 26.00, and on 24 July, official rate reached the
lowest mark this year of USD/UAH 25.82. Nevertheless, in late-July, we
observed an upward trend, and USD/UAH rate gradually climbed to 25.92.
There was only one FX auction held by the National Bank of Ukraine in July –
the regulator sold USD 34.9 mn.
Favourable FX market dynamics helped to restore gross
international reserves by USD 353 mn in June to almost USD 18
bn. The National Bank attracted USD 300 mn at interventions. Meanwhile,
debt payments amounted to only USD 5.8 mn. Generally, gross international
reserves increased by USD 2.4 bn since December 2016, which was greatly
aided by the IMF and the EU tranches. As of 1 July, the amount of reserves is
sufficient to cover 3.7 months of future imports.
The regulator continues to relax administrative measures on the
FX market.
 First, early repayments of non-resident loans are now possible (1) for
banks, (2) for businesses if an international financial organization is
the shareholder of the borrower or non-resident lender and (3) for
resident-borrower if the lending bank is a non-resident.
 Secondly, the regulator simplified the rules related to the purchase
and transferring of FCY under transactions with LCY government
bonds carried out by foreign investors and eased FX purchases for
the purpose of fulfilling FCY liabilities by resident guarantor under the
loan agreements signed with authorized banks.
 Finally, there were some changes concerning Certificates of Deposit
(CDs) placement operations – current rules, according to which
successful bids from banks are approved at interest rates indicated in
the bids, will be supplemented with a new method when all bids are
satisfied at a marginal interest rate set by the regulator. Moreover,
the maturity of CDs will increase from 90 to 100 days. The latest
changes will be effective from 1 September.
Banking sector liquidity dropped on average by UAH 10-12 bn in July. At the
same time, the balances on correspondent accounts were virtually unchanged
(fluctuated in a range of UAH 40-55 bn), while CDs plunged by UAH 10 bn to
UAH 50 bn. Considering the upsurge in inflation, risking not to achieve the
inflation target this year, the NBU decided to leave the key rate at a level of
12.5%. As a result, there were no significant changes in the price of money
market resources. The index of interbank rates (overnight) oscillated around
11%.
Banking Sector
Deposits’ dynamics improved in June. Private individuals’ (PI) deposits
in UAH increased by 3.3% mom and in foreign currency (FCY) – by 0.3%
mom. Corporate (CO) savings also grew in June – by 0.8% mom in LCY and
Gross international reserves
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
-3,500
-3,000
-2,500
-2,000
-1,500
-1,000
-500
0
500
1,000
May-14
Aug-14
Nov-14
Feb-15
May-15
Aug-15
Nov-15
Feb-16
May-16
Aug-16
Nov-16
Feb-17
May-17
USD mn USD bn
NBU interventions/auctions Gross FX reserves, r.h.s.
Official USD/UAH rate
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
PI deposits dynamics
3.3%
0.3%
-3%
-2%
-1%
0%
1%
2%
3%
4%
5%
LCY PI deposits, mom growth FCY PI deposits, mom growth

5
Ukraine
by 0.7% mom in FCY. UAH lending was growing in June. CO LCY
loans went up by 1.9% mom and PI LCY loans increased by 1.3% mom. In the
meantime, FX loans portfolio continued to shrink – by 1% mom CO, and by
1.2% mom PI.
The growth of incomes supported the improvement in deposits
dynamics in Q2. PI LCY deposits hiked by 7.2% qoq and FCY deposits
improved by 0.7% qoq. Corporate deposits in FCY grew much faster than LCY
deposits (+2.7% qoq versus +1.2% qoq). Lending activity is gradually
recovering. CO LCY loans recorded a growth by 1.7% qoq in Q2 after a
reduction by 0.3% qoq in Q1. Growth of PI LCY loan portfolio has slightly
decelerated – from 4.9% qoq in Q1 to 4.7% qoq. Meanwhile, households
and businesses continued to reduce their FCY obligations – by 3.6% qoq and
by 1% qoq respectively.
PI loans dynamics
1.3%
-1.2%
-4%
-3%
-2%
-1%
0%
1%
2%
3%
LCY PI loans, mom growth FCY PI loans, mom growth

6
Ukraine
Risk notifications and explanations
Warnings
 Figures on performance refer to the past. Past performance is not a reliable indicator for future results and the development
of a financial instrument, a financial index or a securities service. This is particularly true in cases when the financial
instrument, financial index or securities service has been offered for less than 12 months. In particular, this very short
comparison period is not a reliable indicator for future results.
 Performance of a financial instrument, a financial index or a securities service is reduced by commissions, fees and other
charges, which depend on the individual circumstances of the investor.
 The return on an investment in a financial instrument, a financial or securities service can rise or fall due to exchange rate
fluctuations.
 Forecasts of future performance are based purely on estimates and assumptions. Actual future performance may deviate
from the forecast. Consequently, forecasts are not a reliable indicator for future results and the development of a financial
instrument, a financial index or a securities service.
Any information and recommendations designated as such in this publication which are contributed by analysts from RBI’s
subsidiary banks or from Raiffeisen Centrobank (“RCB”) are disseminated unaltered under RBI’s responsibility.
A description of the concepts and methods used in the preparation of financial analyses is available under:
www.raiffeisenresearch.com/concept_and_methods
Detailed information on sensitivity analyses (procedure for checking the stability of potential assumptions made in the context of
financial analyses) is available under: www.raiffeisenresearch.com/sensitivity_analysis
Disclaimer Financial Analysis
Responsible for this publication: Raiffeisen Bank International AG („RBI“)
RBI is a credit institution according to §1 Banking Act (Bankwesengesetz) with the registered office Am Stadtpark 9, 1030 Vienna, Austria.
Raiffeisen RESEARCH is an organisational unit of RBI.
Supervisory authority: As a credit institution (acc. to § 1 Austrian Banking Act; Bankwesengesetz) Raiffeisen Bank International AG is subject to the
supervision by the Austrian Financial Market Authority (FMA, Finanzmarktaufsicht) and the National Bank of Austria (OeNB, Oesterreichische
Nationalbank). Additionally, RBI is subject to the supervision by the European Central Bank (ECB), which undertakes such supervision within the
Single Supervisory Mechanism (SSM), which consists of the ECB and the national responsible authorities (Council Regulation (EU) No 1024/2013
- SSM Regulation). Unless set out herein explicitly otherwise, references to legal norms refer to norms enacted by the Republic of Austria.
This document is for information purposes and may not be reproduced or distributed to other persons without RBI’s permission. This document
constitutes neither a solicitation of an offer nor a prospectus in the sense of the Austrian Capital Market Act (Kapitalmarktgesetz) or the Austrian
Stock Exchange Act (Börsegesetz) or any other comparable foreign law. An investment decision in respect of a financial instrument, a financial
product or an investment (all hereinafter “product”) must be made on the basis of an approved, published prospectus or the complete
documentation for such a product in question, and not on the basis of this document.
This document does not constitute a personal recommendation to buy or sell financial instruments in the sense of the Austrian Securities Supervision
Act (Wertpapieraufsichtsgesetz). Neither this document nor any of its components shall form the basis for any kind of contract or commitment
whatsoever. This document is not a substitute for the necessary advice on the purchase or sale of a financial instrument, a financial product or
advice on an investment. In respect of the sale or purchase of one of the above mentioned products, your banking advisor can provide
individualised advice suitable for investments and financial products.
This analysis is fundamentally based on generally available information and not on confidential information which the party preparing the analysis
has obtained exclusively on the basis of his/her client relationship to a person.
Unless otherwise expressly stated in this publication, RBI deems all of the information to be reliable, but does not make any assurances regarding
its accuracy and completeness.
In emerging markets, there may be higher settlement and custody risk as compared to markets with established infrastructure. The liquidity of
stocks/financial instruments may be influenced, amongst others, by the number of market makers. Both of these circumstances can result in
elevated risk in relation to the safety of investments made in consideration of the information contained in this document.
The information in this publication is current as per the latter's creation date. It may be outdated by future developments, without the publication
being changed.
Unless otherwise expressly stated (www.raiffeisenresearch.com/special_compensation) the analysts employed by RBI are not compensated for
specific investment banking transactions. Compensation of the author or authors of this report is based (amongst other things) on the overall
profitability of RBI, which includes, inter alia, earnings from investment banking and other transactions of RBI. In general, RBI forbids its analysts
and persons reporting to the analysts from acquiring securities or other financial instruments of any enterprise which is covered by the analysts,
unless such acquisition is authorised in advance by RBI’s Compliance Department.
RBI has put in place the following organisational and administrative agreements, including information barriers, to impede or prevent conflicts of
interest in relation to recommendations: RBI has designated fundamentally binding confidentiality zones. These are typically units within credit
institutions, which are isolated from other units by organisational measures governing the exchange of information, because compliance-relevant
information is continuously or temporarily handled in these zones. Compliance-relevant information may fundamentally not leave a confidentiality
zone and is to be treated as strictly confidential in internal business operations, including interaction with other units. This does not apply to the
transfer of information necessary for usual business operations. Such transfer of information is limited, however, to what is absolutely necessary

7
Ukraine
(need-to-know principle). The exchange of compliance-relevant information between two confidentiality zones may only occur with the involvement
of the Compliance Officer.
SPECIAL REGULATIONS FOR THE UNITED KINGDOM OF GREAT BRITAIN AND NORTHERN IRELAND (UK):
This document does not constitute either a public offer in the meaning of the Austrian Capital Market Act (Kapitalmarktgesetz; hereinafter „KMG“)
nor a prospectus in the meaning of the KMG or of the Austrian Stock Exchange Act (Börsegesetz). Furthermore, this document does not intend to
recommend the purchase or the sale of securities or investments in the meaning of the Austrian Supervision of Securities Act
(Wertpapieraufsichtsgesetz). This document shall not replace the necessary advice concerning the purchase or the sale of securities or investments.
For any advice concerning the purchase or the sale of securities of investments kindly contact your RAIFFEISENBANK. This publication has been
either approved or issued by RBI in order to promote its investment business. Raiffeisen Bank International AG (“RBI”), London Branch is authorised
by the Austrian Financial Market Authority and subject to limited regulation by the Financial Conduct Authority (“FCA”). Details about the extent of
its regulation by the FCA are available on request. This publication is not intended for investors who are Retail Customers within the meaning of the
FCA rules and shall therefore not be distributed to them. Neither the information nor the opinions expressed herein constitute or are to be construed
as an offer or solicitation of an offer to buy (or sell) investments. RBI may have affected an Own Account Transaction within the meaning of FCA
rules in any investment mentioned herein or related investments and/or may have a position or holding in such investments as a result. RBI may
have been, or might be, acting as a manager or co-manager of a public offering of any securities mentioned in this report or in any related
security.
SPECIFIC RESTRICTIONS FOR THE UNITED STATES OF AMERICA AND CANADA: This document may not be transmitted to, or distributed within,
the United States of America or Canada or their respective territories or possessions, nor may it be distributed to any U.S. person or any person
resident in Canada, unless it is provided directly through RB International Markets (USA) LLC (“RBIM”), a U.S. registered broker-dealer, and subject
to the terms set forth below.
SPECIFIC INFORMATION FOR THE UNITED STATES OF AMERICA AND CANADA: This research document is intended only for institutional
investors and is not subject to all of the independence and disclosure standards that may be applicable to research documents prepared for retail
investors. This report was provided to you by RB International Markets (USA) LLC (RBIM), a U.S. registered broker-dealer, but was prepared by our
non-U.S. affiliate Raiffeisen Bank International AG (RBI). Any order for the purchase or sale of securities covered by this report must be placed with
RBIM. You can reach RBIM at 1177, Avenue of the Americas, 5th floor, New York, NY 10036, phone +1 212-600-2588. This document was
prepared outside the United States by one or more analysts who may not have been subject to rules regarding the preparation of reports and the
independence of research analysts comparable to those in effect in the United States. The analyst or analysts who prepared this research (i) are not
registered or qualified as research analysts with the Financial Industry Regulatory Authority (“FINRA”) in the United States, and (ii) are not allowed
to be associated persons of RBIM and are therefore not subject to FINRA regulations, including regulations related to the conduct or independence
of research analysts.
The opinions, estimates and projections contained in this report are those of RBI only as of the date of this report and are subject to change without
notice. The information contained in this report has been compiled from sources believed to be reliable by RBI, but no representation or warranty,
express or implied, is made by RBI or its affiliated companies or any other person as to the report’s accuracy, completeness or correctness.
Securities which are not registered in the United States may not be offered or sold, directly or indirectly, within the United States or to U.S. persons
(within the meaning of Regulation S under the Securities Act of 1933 [“the Securities Act”]), except pursuant to an exemption under the Securities
Act. This report does not constitute an offer with respect to the purchase or sale of any security within the meaning of Section 5 of the Securities Act
and neither shall this report nor anything contained herein form the basis of, or be relied upon in connection with, any contract or commitment
whatsoever. This report provides general information only. In Canada it may only be distributed to persons who are resident in Canada and who,
by virtue of their exemption from the prospectus requirements of the applicable provincial or territorial securities laws, are entitled to conduct trades
in the securities described herein.
EU REGULATION NO 833/2014 CONCERNING RESTRICTIVE MEASURES IN VIEW OF RUSSIA’S ACTIONS DESTABILISING THE SITUATION
IN UKRAINE
Please note that research is done and recommendations are given only in respect of financial instruments which are not affected by the sanctions
under EU regulation no 833/2014 concerning restrictive measures in view of Russia's actions destabilising the situation in Ukraine, as amended
from time to time, i.e. financial instruments which have been issued before 1 August 2014.
We wish to call to your attention that the acquisition of financial instruments with a term exceeding 30 days issued after 31 July 2014 is prohibited
under EU regulation no 833/2014 concerning restrictive measures in view of Russia's actions destabilising the situation in Ukraine, as amended
from time to time. No opinion is given with respect to such prohibited financial instruments.
INFORMATION REGARDING THE PRINCIPALITY OF LIECHTENSTEIN: COMMISSION DIRECTIVE 2003/125/EC of 22 December 2003
implementing Directive 2003/6/EC of the European Parliament and of the Council as regards the fair presentation of investment recommendations
and the disclosure of conflicts of interest has been incorporated into national law in the Principality of Liechtenstein by the Finanzanalyse-
Marktmissbrauchs-Verordnung.
If any term of this Disclaimer is found to be illegal, invalid or unenforceable under any applicable law, such term shall, insofar as it is severable
from the remaining terms, be deemed omitted from this Disclaimer. It shall in no way affect the legality, validity or enforceability of the remaining
terms.

8
Ukraine
Acknowledgements
This report was prepared by Raiffeisen Bank Aval on 3 August 2017
Raiffeisen Bank Aval
9, Leskova Str., 01011 Kyiv, Ukraine
Tel. +380 44 490 8888
Fax +380 44 285 32 31
Call center: 0 800 500 500 (free within Ukraine)
www.aval.ua
Market Analysis
Sergii Drobot (+380 44 590 5621)
Treasury
Head: Vladimir Kravchenko (+380 44 4908808)
FX, MM: Yuriy Grinenko (+380 44 4908988), Olexandr Varenytsia (+380 44 4954227), Nikolay Vysotsky (+380 44
4954226)
Treasury Sales: Marina Lukashenko (+380 44 4954202), Alexander Korenev (+380 44 4954200), Tatiana Kornienko (+380
44 4954201)
Securities: Oleg Klimas (+380 44 4908939), Alexey Evdokimov (+380 44 4954206), Daria Shatskykh (+380 44 4954204)
Multinational Corporate Customers
Head: Andreas Kettlgruber (+380 44 4954110)
Relationship Managers: Anna Prydybailo (+380 44 2309981), Lesia Byba (+380 44 4954271)
Raiffeisen Bank International CEE Research Team
GLOBAL HEAD OF RESEARCH, RBI
Peter Brezinschek (1517, FA*)
HEAD OF ECONOMICS / FIXED INCOME
/FX RESEARCH, RBI VIENNA
Gunter Deuber (5707, FA*)
CEE MACRO, FX AND FIXED INCOME,
RBI VIENNA
Wolfgang Ernst (FX Strategist, 1500, FA*)
Stephan Imre (FI Strategist, 6757, FA*)
Patrick Krizan (FI Strategist, 5644, FA*)
Matthias Reith (Economist, 6741, FA*)
Elena Romanova (Banking sector, 1378, FA*)
Andreas Schwabe (Economist, 1389, FA*)
Gintaras Shlizyhus (FI Strategist, 1343, FA*)
CEE CREDIT COMPANY RESEARCH, RBI
VIENNA
Jörg Bayer (Head, 1909, FA*)
Martin Kutny (Corporates, 2013, FA*)
Ruslan Gadeev (RU Financials, 2216, FA*)
RBI contacts: +43 1 71707 (+ extension);
[name].[surname]@rbinternational.com
*FA: Financial Analyst
RBI NETWORK BANK CEE RESEARCH
CENTRAL EUROPE (CE)
CZ: Helena Horska (+420 234 40 1413,
FA*), Raiffeisenbank a.s., Prague
HU: Zoltán Török (+36 1 484 4843, FA*),
Raiffeisen Bank Zrt., Budapest
PL: Dorota Strauch (+48 22 585 2461, FA*),
Raiffeisen Polbank, Warsaw
SK: Robert Prega (+421 2 5919 1303, FA*),
Tatra banka, a.s., Bratislava
SOUTH EAST EUROPE (SEE)
AL: Joan Canaj (+355 4 238 1000 1122,
FA*), Raiffeisen Bank Sh.a., Tirana
BA: Ivona Zametica; (+387 33 287 784,
FA*), Raiffeisen BANK d.d., Sarajevo
BG: Emil Kalchev (+359 2 91985 101, FA*),
Raiffeisenbank (Bulgaria, FA*) Sole-owned
JSC, Sofia
HR: Zrinka Zivkovic-Matijevic (+385 1 6174
338, FA*), Raiffeisenbank Austria d.d.,
Zagreb
RO: Ionut Dumitro (+40-730-222-953, FA*),
Raiffeisen Bank S.A., Bucharest
RS: Ljiljana Grubic (+381 11 2207178, FA*),
Raiffeisenbank a.d., Belgrade
EASTERN EUROPE (EE)
BY: Natalya Chernogorova +375 17 289
9231, FA*), Priorbank JSC, Minsk
RU: Anastasia Baykova (+7 495 225 9114,
FA*), AO Raiffeisenbank Austria, Moscow
UA: Sergii Drobot (+380 44 5905621, FA*),
Raiffeisen Bank Aval , Kyiv
COMPANY EQUITY RESEARCH:
RAIFFEISEN CENTROBANK AG, VIENNA
Bernd Maurer (Head, +43 1 51520-706,
FA*)

Ukraine Monthly Economic Review, July 2017

Recomendados

Recomendados

Más contenido relacionado

La actualidad más candente

La actualidad más candente (20)

Similar a Ukraine Monthly Economic Review, July 2017

Similar a Ukraine Monthly Economic Review, July 2017 (20)

Último

Último (20)

Ukraine Monthly Economic Review, July 2017