Commodities May 2013 Review from VENTURA Commodities.
Contents:
- VENTURA Column
- Top Stories
- Currency update
- Performance of select few commodities
- US Economy update
- Report on Copper
- Event Calendar
- Call performance
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Commodities May 2013 Review
1. 1
M
C
X
FUTURES
COMMODITY
May 20th, 2013 Monthly Review
Inside this issue
Ventura Column
Top Stories
Currency Update
April'13 Performance of
Select Few Commodities
US Economy Update
Report on Copper
Event calendar
Call Performance
Volume 7, Issue 4
2. 2
What is Commodities transaction
tax (CTT)?
Dharmesh Jain
Executive Agri Research
Commodities transaction tax (CTT) is a tax similar to Securities Transaction Tax
(STT)ontransactionsdoneonthedomesticcommodityderivativesexchanges.
Globally, commodity derivatives are also considered as financial contracts.
HenceCTTcanalsobeconsideredasatypeoffinancialtransactiontax.
The concept of CTT was first introduced in the Union Budget 2008-09 (para
179 of the Budget Speech).The Government had then proposed to impose a
commodities transaction tax (CTT) of 0.017% (equivalent to the rate of equity
futures at that point of time). However, it was withdrawn subsequently as the
market was nascent then and any imposition of transaction tax might have
adversely affected the growth of organised commodities derivatives markets
in India. This has helped Indian commodity exchanges to grow to global
standards(MCX is the world's number 3 commodity exchange; Globally, MCX
isNo.1inGoldandSilver,No.2inNaturalgasandNo.3inCrudeOil)
In the Union Budget 2013-14 CTT has been re-introduced, however, only for
non-agricultural commodity futures at the rate of 0.01% (which is equivalent to
the rate of equity futures). Alongwith this, transactions in commodity
derivatives have been declared to be made non-speculative;and hence for
traders in the commodity derivative segment, any losses arising from such
transactions can be set off against income from any other source (similar
provisionsareapplicableforthesecuritiesmarkettransactions).
Like all financial transaction taxes, CTT aims at discouraging excessive
speculation, which is detrimental to the market and to bring parity between
securities market and commodities market such that there is no tax /
regulatory arbitrage. (Futures contracts are financial instruments and provide
for price risk management and price discovery of the underlying asset
(commodity / currency/ stocks / interest). It is therefore essential that the
policy framework governing is uniform across all the contracts irrespective of
theunderlyingtominimize thechancesofregulatoryarbitrage.
During 2011-12, the total size of commodity futures market was Rs.181261 bn
(US$3420 bn), registering a compound annual growth rate of 40 percent since
its inception in 2003. Futures trade in non-agricultural commodities accounted
for nearly 88 percent of the total turnover on Indian commodity exchanges
during this period. The futures trading in bullion (gold, silver and platinum
contracts)aloneaccountedfor56percentofthetotalmarketturnover.
Based on the current trading value of non-agricultural commodities in the
Indian exchanges, CTT (at 0.01 percent) could fetch Rs.15950 million ($300
million) to cash-starved exchequer every year. This is a substantial amount in
the present times when tax revenues are under severe pressure and the
government's attempts to reduce fiscal deficit through other measures are not
yieldingpositiveresults.
The revenue raised through CTT could be utilized in several ways. Since New
Delhi is too much worried over the current fiscal situation, it could use a part of
thistaxrevenuetoreducethefiscaldeficit.
Another key benefit of the CTT lies in its progressive outlook. The CTT would
only affect speculators and non-commercial players who often use high-
frequency trading to transact a large number of commodity futures contracts
at very fast speeds. In contrast, a sales tax is generally considered to be
regressivebecauseitdisproportionatelyburdensthepoorpeople.
The opponents cannot ignore the fact that the CTT would be a more efficient
revenue source than other taxes. The CTT would be collected by the commodity
futures exchanges from the brokers and passed on to the exchequer, thereby
enablingtheauthoritiestoraiserevenueinaneat,transparentandefficientmanner.
TheRevenuePotential
FairAndEfficient RevenueCollection
Top Stories
After14monthsofban,tradinginguarseed,guargumbegins
Guar seed and guar gum was relaunched on commodity exchanges after being banned by
Forward Market Commission. In March 2012, the commodity was banned from trading
duetoasharpriseinguargumprices.
On MCX, the trading unit of guar seed and guar gum is one tonne each and price quote for
the contracts is ex-warehouse Jodhpur, inclusive of sales tax/VAT. These are compulsory
delivery contracts with staggered delivery tender period for the last 15 days. The physical
deliverywouldbeavailableinmultiplesofonetonneforbothguarseedandguargum.
The basis delivery center for both the contracts is Jodhpur and additional delivery centers
include Bikaner, Nokha, Sri Ganganagar, Hanumangarh and Barmer in Rajasthan, Deesa in
Gujarat,andAdampurandSirsainHaryana.
On NCDEX, guar seed saw trading volume of 5,664 tonne and open interest of 2,137 tonne
with traded value of Rs 53.76 crore and guar gum saw trading volume of 1,014 tonne and
open interest of 237 tonne with traded value of Rs 28.60 crore, the exchange said in a
pressrelease.
FMC has proposed stringent conditions for futures trade in these commodities. A special
margin of 10%, which is over and above the initial margin, will be imposed if prices rise by
more than 20%. Further, for every 10% rise in prices, the special margin charged will also
increase by 10%. Additionally, if prices increase by more than 50% in the June and July
expirycontracts,aspecialmarginof70%willbeimposed.
Last year, the total production of guar seed was around 180 million bags (1 bag = 100
kilograms), on the Jodhpur spot market, guar gum is currently priced at Rs 28,000 per
quintalandguarseedatRs9,500perquintal.
On MCX, guar seed for june delivery was down by 2% to Rs 9505 per quintal and guar gum
forJunedeliverywasdownby2.6%toRs28,050perquintal.
This year, the area under the commodity is expected to rise in Rajasthan, a major producer
of the commodity. Last year farmers got good returns for their produce due to which they
willincreasetheareaunderguarseed.Thiswillcausetheareaundermoongdaltofall.
1
Dollar approaches 10-month high as markets reassess Fed
outlook
The U.S. dollar approached a 10-month high against a basket
of currencies on after a regional Federal Reserve chief said
the U.S. central bank could begin easing up on stimulus this
summer.
Currency markets took their cue from comments by John
Williams, the president of the Federal Reserve Bank of San
Francisco, who said the Fed could completely exit its easing by the end of the year.
Investors see Williams' thinking as close to that of the Fed's top officials such as Chairman
BenBernankeandViceChairJanetYellen.
The dollar index .DXY, which measures the currency's value against a basket of six major
currencies,gainedto83.886,nearinga10-monthhigh of84.094set.
A break of its July peak of 84.100 could open the way for a test of 84.929, a 76.4 percent
retracement ofitsfallfromthe2010peakof88.708tonearathree-yearlowof72.696hit in
2011.
Speculation about the Fed's possible exit from stimulus is having the most pronounced
impact on the Australian dollar, which has enjoyed the status of highest-yielding major
currencyforyears.
The currency's 5.7 percent tumble this month accounts for nearly all of its 6 percent loss
on the year, as a fall in commodity prices in recent months raises concerns about a
slowdowninChina,thebiggestbuyerofAustralia'snaturalresources.
Patchy U.S. data is still blunting the dollar's gains. Factory activity in the U.S. mid-Atlantic
region contracted in May as new orders fell to their lowest level in almost a year, while new
claimsforjoblessbenefitsspiked.
Aresurgentdollarpushedtheeuronearasix-weeklow.
Currency Update
3. 3
US Economy Update
2
APRIL '13 PERFORMANCE OF SELECT FEW COMMODITIES
Commodity Contract 1st April Rate 30th April Rate % Change
Gold 05th Jun 30027 26905
Silver 05th Jul 53822 45226
Crude Oil 20th May 5323 5014
Natural Gas 28th May 223 232.6
Copper 28th Jun 414.3 380.25
-10.4
-15.97
-5.8
-8.22
4.3
MarchISMindexdropsto51.3%from54.2%
U.S.Factories'FebruaryOrdersRise onCar,PlaneDemand
JobGainsSlowAmidU.S.UnemploymentatFour-YearLow
TradeDeficit inU.S.UnexpectedlyNarrowsonOil Imports
Retail SalesinU.S.DroppedinMarchbyMostinNine Months
The pace of expansion in the U.S. manufacturing sector slowed sharply in March to
the lowest level since December. The Institute for Supply Management index fell to
51.3% from 54.2% in February. Reading over 50 indicates more manufacturers are
expanding instead of contracting. The ISM's new-orders gauge sank
to 51.3% from 57.8%. The production index dropped to 52.2% from
57.6%.
Orders placed with U.S. factories increased in February, boosted by a
pickup in demand for motor vehicles and commercial aircraft. The 3
percent gain in bookings, the biggest in five months, followed a
revised 1 percent decline in January. The advance was led by a 5.6
percent surge in demand for durable goods that was little changed
from the 5.7 percent estimate issued last week. Auto sales that are on
pace for the best year since 2007 and gains in home construction are
helping drive sales and orders at manufacturers. More corporate
investment and inventory rebuilding are also keeping assembly lines
busy, contributing to economic growth as businesses look beyond
federalbudgetcuts.
Employers hired fewer workers than forecast in March and a slump in the size of the
labor force pushed the jobless rate down to a four-year low, indicating the U.S. job
market is struggling to make bigger strides. Payrolls grew by 88,000 workers last
month, the smallest in nine months, after a revised 268,000 gain in February that
washigher thanfirstestimated.
The trade deficit in the U.S. unexpectedly shrank in February as stabilizing overseas
markets boosted exports and Americans imported less oil. The gap narrowed by
3.4 percent to $43 billion from a revised $44.5 billion in January. The number of
barrels of crude oil imported into the U.S. in February was the smallest since 1996.
A weaker U.S. currency will make American exports more attractive to overseas
buyers. The dollar had dropped 2.3 percent from last year's peak as against a trade-
weighted basketofcurrenciesfromitsbiggesttradingpartners.
Retail sales in the U.S. dropped in March by the most in nine months, pointing to a
slowdown in consumer spending as the first quarter drew to a close. Purchases fell
0.4 percent, the biggest setback since June, after jumping 1 percent in February.
Rupeehits1-monthlow
The rupee had closed down at 54.80 to hit a month's low due to fresh dollar
demandfromimportersamidfirmglobalcues.
The yen continued its fall against the dollar and euro, giving investors a green light
tocontinuesellingtheJapanesecurrency.
The rupee sentiment was hit by selling in commodities that was triggered by a
strong dollar, which rose to a fresh four-and-a-half-year peak against the yen on
the back of growing confidence in the US economy. The yen today continued its
fall against the dollar and euro, giving investors a green light to continue selling the
Japanesecurrency.
Consumer sentiment took a hit this month after employment cooled. The sales data
prompted economists to trim consumer- spending forecasts from what was
projected to be the best quarter in two years. Gains in hiring and wages will be
needed to ensure any slowdown proves temporary as federal budget cuts and an
increaseinthepayrolltaxrestraintheexpansion.
Consumer sentiment tumbled to a nine-month low in April, with
Americans especially gloomy about the long-term health of the
economy. The preliminary reading on the overall index of consumer
sentiment fell to 72.3 in April, a level last seen in July, 2012. The index
stoodat78.6lastmonth.
New-home construction in the U.S. jumped more than forecast in
March as multifamily projects climbed to the highest level in more than
seven years. Starts climbed 7 percent to a 1.04 million annual rate, the
most since June 2008, following a revised 968,000 annual rate in
February that was larger than previously reported. Building permits, a
proxyforfutureconstruction,fell.
Industrial production increased in March as consumers cranked up
the heating, capping off a first quarter which saw an annualized growth rate of 5%,
the best in a year for output. The Federal Reserve said industrial production rose a
seasonally adjusted 0.4% in March, and February's growth was revised higher to
1.1% from the initially reported 0.8% advance. The March gain wasn't necessarily a
great sign for the economy utilities output rose 5.3% due to unusually cold weather,
andmanufacturing andmining outputactuallydecreased.
Purchases of new U.S. homes rose in March, capping the best quarter for the
industry since 2008 and providing more evidence the housing recovery will be
sustained. Sales of single-family properties climbed 1.5 percent last month to a
417,000 annual pace from a 411,000 rate in February. A dearth of existing
properties is encouraging builders to undertake new projects that will keep fueling
theeconomy.
The economy in the U.S. grew less than forecast in the first quarter as a drop in
defense spending outweighed the biggest increase in consumer spending in two
years. Gross domestic product rose at a 2.5 percent annual rate, lower than
forecast, after a 0.4 percent fourth-quarter advance. Consumer spending, the
biggestpartoftheeconomy,climbedbythemostsincethefourthquarterof2010.
Aprilconsumersentimenthitsnine-monthlow
HousingStartsinU.S.SurgeonMultifamilyUnit Demand
Industrialproductionclimbs 0.4%inMarch
SalesofNewHomes inU.S.Climb1.5%to417,000 Rate
GrowthinU.S.TrailsForecastsasDefenseSpendingFalls
Commodity Contract 1st April Rate 30th April Rate % Change
Nickel 31th May 919.7 824.3
Zinc 31th May 104.25 99.55
Kapas 30th Apr 953 852
Jeera 20th Jun 13407.5 13075
Ref.Soya oil 20th Jun 668.4 690
-10.37
-4.51
-10.6
-2.48
3.23
4. 4
3
INTRODUCTION
The industrial metal is sometimes called Dr. Copper in a reference to
investors' confidence in its ability to provide insight on the health of the
global economy thanks to its widespread use across many parts of the
global economy. But copper hasn't been a very reliable indicator the last
couple years. When it comes to diagnosing the outlook for the global
economyandstockprices,Dr.Copperhasn'tbeenright fortwoyears
DR. COPPER CATCHES COLD
Copper prices have been trending lower since February 2011, when
the futures settled at an all-time high of $4.63 a pound. Since then,
futureshavefallen29%.
Meanwhile Copper's recent drop has pushed futures prices to the
precipice of a bear market, down nearly 20% off their February 2012
highs. As futures trade around $3.20 a pound, they're dangerously
close to the $2.80 a pound it costs some mining companies to dig up
themetal,
The fall began in February when reports of liquidity withdrawal by the
US Fed earlier than stated resulted is selling in commodities, including
copper. The fall was accelerated early last week when China
announcedweaker-than-expectedeconomicdata
Futures in month of April had fallen to $3.06 a pound, the lowest
intraday price since October 2011.This marks a swift reversal from
just two years earlier, when copper breached $4.62 a pound as
investorsfearedacoppershortage.
Copper lost 5.9% on the week, its biggest weekly percentage decline
in 16 months, and is down 13% this year. The metal is a component in
manyproducts,ranging frombathroompipestoiPhones
Out of the past 10 years, we've had a copper deficit for the past
eight, although copper ended 2012 with a production deficit of
340,000 tonnes, owing to a rather sharp growth in Chinese demand
and production bottlenecks. Global demand for copper grew by 3.1%
in 2012, but turns into a decline of 2.2% if one excludes China's
figures
By 2013, however, expectations that supply from new and expanding
copper mines would outpace demand from manufacturers in 2013
were spreading among investors. Copper inventories held at
warehouses overseen by the London Metal Exchange are about
614,350 tons, on Thursday April 17th, up 92% this year already at
theirhighest inadecade
Demand remains uncertain due partly to high physical stocks and a
slowdown in economic growth in China, as its economy expanded at
a slower-than-expected pace in the first quarter, missing forecasts of
8%growth.
Sparking April's move was news that copper shipments out of
Zambia, Africa's largest copper producer, have resumed after a two-
weekhaltbecauseofarailroadaccident.
The additional supplies will arrive in a market in which stockpiles of
extracopperarealreadyontherise.
RISING INVENTORIES
5. 5
4
Meanwhile Chinese unreported inventories in bonded warehouses
increased significantly during 2012. This unreported inventory can
significantlyalterthemarketbalance.
A. Importers are believed to have reduced their longer-term
contractualvolumesofcopperby20-30%.
B. China still has extensive inventories (which ICSG, too, has
alludedto).
C. The output of refined copper in the first two months (of 2013)
grewby12%overthesameperiodinthepreviousyear.
D. The extent to which industrial activity recovers in China remains
to be seen. The copper market should therefore give out clearer
indicators in the next few months of what to expect for the metal in
theyearahead.
SLUGGISHGROWTHIN EURO ZONE US & CHINA
The EU is China's largest trading partner, and China is the EU's second-
largest partner following the United States, Given this, any major
impact on the EU and the euro zone will also have an impact on the
economiesofChinaandtheUnited States
Growth in China's vast factory sector dipped in April as new export
orders shrank, suggesting the world's second-largest economy still
facesformidableglobalheadwindsintothesecondquarter.
The HSBC (PMI) is much lower than the market was expecting, all the
indicators are pretty negative in terms of the detail. It does appear to be
following the official PMI trend, which is pointing to more of a tepid
recovery in the second quarter for China. The preliminary HSBC
Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) decelerated to 50.5
inAprilfromafinal51.6inMarch,
Manufacturing activity in Europe, which as a region serves as the
second-largest market for copper, continues to contract, and the
economicreboundintheU.S.remainsuneven.
The survey is signaling a worrying weakness in the economy at the
start of the second quarter, with signs that the downturn is more likely
tointensifyfurtherincomingmonthsratherthanease
Thus making copper a delight for speculative bear traders, who have
outnumbered bulls by nearly three to one among speculative holders
of copper futures and options as per CFTC Interestingly, the number of
open copper futures contracts has been rising as prices plunged – a
sign that new sellers are entering the market at a faster pace than
bullishinvestorsareleavingit.
NEARING COSTOFPRODUCTION
For the first time since 2009, copper prices are falling toward the cost
of production. Another 12.5% drop will take copper futures down to
$2.80, the total cost paid by some of the world's highest-cost copper
miners to produce a pound of the metal. A sustained period at or
below this price would force some mining companies to defer
expansionplansandshutterunprofitableproduction.
But with the recent wall slide at Rio Tinto's Bingham Canyon copper
mine in Utah, which occurred April 10, will remove around 100,000
metric tons of copper from the market this year which may support
thepricenottouching thecostofproduction.
WEAKERGROWTHOUTLOOK
Copper and commodities prices in general, have been following
growth in emerging market economies, particularly China, rather than
developed economies, Copper's selloff accelerated overnight after
data showed that China's economy grew at a 7.7% pace in the first
quarter, fast by developed economy standards, but slower than
expectationsof8%growth.
Meanwhile, the U.S. economy and corporate earnings continue to
grow at a moderate pace, and the Federal Reserve is expected to keep
floodingthefinancialmarketswithliquidity.
6. 5
Weak demand and robust supplies could continue to put pressure on
copper prices. Miners are unlikely to delay new projects or shut down
productionuntilpricesnear$2.80apound,
Bets on lower copper prices remain the dominant force in the market
andbetsthatpriceswouldfall,knownasashortposition.
Copper prices has been recovering well in May after its worst
performance April, after a report on growing exports and imports from
China signaled increased demand for the metal from the world's biggest
buyer. China's exports rose 14.7 percent last month from a year ago
and imports climbed 16.8 percent. The U.S. recovery and improving
Chineseinternationaltradefiguresaresupporting thecopperprice.
However China imported 295,799 metric tons of copper in April, its
lowest import volume since June 2011. Imports were down 21.2%
year-on-year and 7.4% month-on-month. but Cancelled warrants in
copper in the LME's Asian warehouses are currently close to a record
high atabove70,000tons,whichpointstorobustdemandinChina.
More than 30 percent of total copper consumption in China comes
from copper scrap, making the scrap material a vital part of supply and
demand in the world's top producer and consumer of the metal. About
a third of China's 6 million tons of annual output of the refined metal is
madefromscrap
The recent price surge in the first week of May can be attributed to the
supplybottleneckofscrapcopper.
As the economic slowdown in developed nations has reduced the
global supply of copper scrap, typically sourced from old buildings,
and used electrical cables and power generators, as new building has
slowed.
The tightness in scrap is a worldwide situation. Chinese secondary
refineries, which have to be fed scrap, are bidding more aggressively
in other markets, including in Europe, The tightness is due to
maintenance shutdowns at Boliden's smelters in Sweden and Finland,
a port strike in Chile earlier this year that blocked nearly 60,000 tonnes
of copper exports from Codelco, backlogged stock in Antwerp
warehousesandtheshortageofscrap.
Scrap supplies tend to dry up when copper prices fall, as merchants
who bought the material at higher prices are unwilling to sell at a loss,
while others hold on to the metal in hope of higher prices, thus supplies
were further hit in April after LME copper prices hit their lowest in 1-1/2
years, falling below $6,800 a tonne. Scrap sellers may increase selling
ifLMEcopperpricesriseabove$7,500atonne,
Meanwhile Premiums to secure copper in Europe have pushed above
$100 a tonne as a scrap shortage, which earlier in January this year
weresellingatdiscountof$100to$150
THE CHINA FACTOR
SCRAPSHORTAGES
6
With Chinese smelters warning they may be forced to cut production
unless they find more scrap, there is a risk we could end up with a
temporary smelter bottleneck, In the US alone, copper scrap supplies
have steadily thinned this year, with sales of high-grade bare bright
scrapnowbeingmadeatthesamepricelevelasCOMEXJulycopper.
But given the discrepancy between global mine production and global
refined output, concentrate stocks are probably building. World mine
production grew 14% in January, while global refined output rose
1.6%. Refined output is likely to continue underperforming given
variousrefinerydisruptions.
The increase in concentrate production somewhat offsets the
tightness in scrap supply. But smelters need more scrap in the mix to
blendoutimpurities andprocesslowergradeore,
Moreover, scrap demand is increasing because of a sharp rise in
physicalpremiumsforexchange-tradedcoppercathode.
OUTLOOKFOR2ND HALFOF2013
The copper market is now shifting from a long period of constrained
mine supply to one in which new mine capacity growth brings about
thelong-awaitedreturnoftherefinedmarkettomoderatesurpluses,
The sheer strength of January 2013 global copper mine supply
growth took us by surprise, but refined production is lagging and
scrap shortages could be a bottleneck, Combined with a maintenance
shutdown at a big producer and a Chilean port strike, have led
consumerstooutbidwarehousesforspotsupply.
Copper demand has been weak in Europe this year due to poor to non-
existent economic growth, while global copper supplies have been
rising.Despitethis,asupplysqueezehasemerged.
The copper market will post its first surplus since 2009 this year, as
new and expanded smelters across China and Africa come on stream
(ICGS)
7. 7
6
Citing declines in inventories and an anticipated improvement in sentiment on Chinese demand we may see prices to trade at $7500/t for 3 months
& gradually increasing the 6 months target to $8,000/t as the second half generally sees a rise in economic expansions & manufacturing activities
aroundtheglobe.
ThefollowingtablesummarizestheforecastsoftheICSG.
2012 2013 2014 2012 2013 2014 2012 2013 2014
1450 1753 2039 1057 1295 1506 251 258 269
2284 2351 2636 1647 1691 1826 2216 2270 2333
7109 7407 7675 3420 3637 3663 618 640 667
636 857 922 402 553 577 789 818 881
1945 2185 2388 8881 9295 9816 12195 12044 12541
546 551 571 439 462 465 100 101 102
826 832 837 2742 2691 2801 3073 3079 3182
852 875 901 1067 1091 1122 1154 1240 1273
1039 1145 1175 461 495 495 113 115 118
Africa
N.America
LatinAmerica
Asean-10
AsiaexAsean/CIS
Asia-CIS
EU-27
Europe-Others
Oceania
REGIONS
(in 1000 t)
MINE PRODUCTION REFINED PRODUCTION REFINED USAGE
TECHNICAL OUTLOOK ON COPPER
IntheWeeklyChartpricesofCopperaretradingonapositivenotefromlast4-5weeks.
Priceshavemadeahigh of462.95inSeptember2012andagainmadeahigh of450inDecember2012.
Copper price have broken its major resistance of 412 last week and gave weekly closing above that level. Since then, prices have witnessed a sharp
rally,andcurrentlytradingaround414levels.
All the other technical tools are also confirming the trend. RSI also give a trend line breakout from bottom and ADX during breakout respectively
givespositivesignal.
The first support is situated at 400 and interim support is situated at 390. A renewed bearish trend will occur once the market sustains below 390 on
theclosingbasis.
Thenextresistanceisat450andclosingabovethatcouldtakethepriceto480-510.
8. 8
67747555 / 67547298
CALL PERFOMANCE FOR APRIL 2013
TotalNo.ofCalls:...................................................... 89
TargetAchieved:....................................................... 52
StoplossTriggered:................................................... 37
SuccessRatio:................................................... 58.4%
US Event Calendar for the period 21st May to 20th June 2013
10th June •
17th June •
•
•
Federal Budget Balance
German ZEW Economic Sentiment
Empire State Manufacturing Index
NAHB Housing Market Index
28th May •
4th June •
Consumer Confidence
Trade Balance
11th June •
•
•
•
18th June •
•
•
•
German WPI
German Constitutional Court Ruling
IBD/TIPP Economic Optimism
Wholesale Inventories m/m
Building Permits
Core CPI m/m
CPI m/m
Housing Starts
22nd May •
•
•
•
29th May •
•
•
5th June •
Existing Home Sales
API Weekly Crude Stocks
Crude Oil Inventories
FOMC Meeting Minutes
German Unemployment Change
API Weekly Crude Stocks
Crude Oil Inventories
ADP Non-Farm Employment Change
12th June •
•
•
•
19th June •
•
•
•
•
Industrial Production m/m
German Constitutional Court Ruling
Crude Oil Inventories
API Weekly Crude Stocks
FOMC Economic Projections
FOMC Statement
Federal Funds Rate
Crude Oil Inventories
API Weekly Crude Stocks
23rd May •
•
•
•
•
30th May •
•
•
•
6th June •
German Flash Manufacturing PMI
Unemployment Claims
Flash Manufacturing PMI
New Home Sales
Natural Gas Storage
Prelim GDP q/q
Unemployment Claims
Pending Home Sales
Natural Gas Storage
German Factory Orders m/m
13th June •
•
•
•
•
•
20th June •
•
•
OPEC Meetings
Core Retail Sales m/m
Retail Sales m/m
Unemployment Claims
Business Inventories m/m
Natural Gas Storage
FOMC Press Conference
Existing Home Sales
Philly Fed Manufacturing
Index
24th May •
•
•
31st May •
•
•
•
•
German Ifo Business Climate
Core Durable Goods Orders m/m
Durable Goods Orders m/m
German Retail Sales m/m
EUR Unemployment Rate
Core PCE Price Index m/m
Personal Spending m/m
S&P/ CS Composite -20 HPI y/y
14th June •
•
•
•
•
•
•
PPI m/m
Core PPI m/m
Current Account
TIC Long-Term Purchases
Capacity Utilization Rate
Industrial Production m/m
Prelim UoM Consumer Sentiment
3rd June •
•
ISM Manufacturing PMI
Construction Spending m/m
M
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U
R
S
D
A
Y
F
R
I
D
A
Y
•
•
•
•
•
ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI
Factory Orders
API Weekly Crude Stocks
Crude Oil Inventories
Beige Book
•
•
•
•
EUR Minimum Bid Rate
ECB Press Conference
Unemployment Claims
Natural Gas Storage
•
•
7th June
•
•
•
Chicago PMI
Revised UoM Consumer
Sentiment
German Industrial Production
m/m
Non-Farm Employment Change
Unemployment Rate
•
•
•
CB Leading Index m/m
Unemployment Claims
Natural Gas Storage