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Let trust our estimates
- 1. Let Trust Your Estimates Volodymyr Voytyshyn 02/19/2012
- 2. Have you ever estimated development tasks before start work on them? How accurate were your estimates? What did you do when you underestimated or overestimated the task? Have you ever estimated whole project before its start?
- 3. The Goal How make estimate of software project efforts BETTER?
- 4. Main Points Why Good Estimate is Important? Some Anti-Patterns in Projects Estimation Estimation Approaches Overview PERT in Action
- 5. WHY GOOD ESTIMATE IS IMPORTANT?
- 6. What is successful software project? All main requirements were implemented No time overhead No budget overhead No overtimes
- 7. Software Project Statistics CHAOS Summary 2009 24% 32% Failed Challenged Successed 44% http://www.standishgroup.com/newsroom/chaos_2009.php
- 8. What is the main problem?
- 9. When do we need estimates? Preparation of proposal for a new project Project planning Managing changes Managing risks Etc…
- 10. Why estimate is important? Bad Unsuccessful Estimate Project
- 11. Underestimation Consequences Demotivation Low Quality Increase Growth of Costs Etc…
- 12. SOME ANTI-PATTERNS IN PROJECTS ESTIMATION
- 13. Anti-Pattern #1 Estimate something when anybody do not know what is this
- 14. Anti-Pattern #2 Talk “Yes” when you actually think “No”
- 15. Anti-Pattern #3 Forcible reducing of estimate
- 16. Anti-Pattern #4 Excessive optimism
- 17. Anti-Pattern #5 Make hasty estimates
- 18. Anti-Pattern #6 Software project includes only coding
- 19. Anti-Pattern #7 Not consider risks
- 21. What is an estimate? Estimate is a probability value What is the confidence range? What is the probability that we’ll exceed the estimate?
- 22. Estimation Approaches Your own experience in similar projects Expert’s estimation: – PERT, Program / Project Evaluation and Review Technique General techniques based on industry experience: – FPA, Functional Point Analysis – COCOMO, Constructive Cost Model
- 23. PERT PERT - Program / Project Evaluation and Review Technique The technique was designed at 1958 during project on the creation of missiles "Polaris" Input data: hierarchical structure of project tasks Output data: probabilistic estimation of efforts
- 27. Functional Point Analysis Was designed by Alan Albrecht and first published at 1979 Input data: logical model and requirements for software project Output data: functional points Main benefit: unified and platform independent approach for estimation all projects in company
- 28. COCOMO COCOMO – constructive cost model Was designed by Barry Bouem and first published at 1981 Input data: KLOC – thousands of logical code lines Output data: effort estimate in man-month
- 29. PERT IN ACTION
- 30. Task Automated ordering system for company which specializing on wholesale trade Customer should be able to create an order Manager should be able process an order Email notification for all steps of order workflow 1C synchronization
- 31. Estimation
- 32. Result
- 33. Conclusion A. Underestimate has very negative impact on project B. Software project estimation is not a guessing C. We can use and combine several estimation approaches: – Experience on similar projects – PERT – FPA – COCOMO
- 35. Information Sources Software Project Management Lectures http://www.arkhipenkov.ru 10 Deadly Sins of Software Estimation http://construx.com/Page.aspx?cid=2929 Software Estimation: Demystifying the Black Art http://www.microsoft.com/learning/en/us/book.a spx?ID=2425&locale=en-us
- 36. Contacts Volodymyr Voytyshyn 5 Knyahyni Olhy Str., Rivne 33000, Ukraine Tel: +38(066) 41 83 509 E-mail: vvoit@softserveinc.com voytyshyn@gmail.com Skype: voytyshin Thank You! Copyright © 2011 SoftServe, Inc.