1. Global Economic
Prospects
January 2014
Sub-Saharan
Africa
Gerard Kambou
World Bank
January 2014
www.worldbank.org/globaloutlook

2. Real GDP growth picked up in Sub-Saharan Africa in 2013
%
Real GDP growth
9.0
Developing countries excl. China
8.0
Sub-Saharan Africa
Sub-Saharan Africa excl. South Africa
7.0
6.0
5.0
4.0
3.0
2.0
1.0
0.0
2005
2006
Source: World Bank
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013

3. Real GDP growth picked up in Sub-Saharan Africa in 2013
%
Real GDP growth
9.0
Developing countries excl. China
8.0
Sub-Saharan Africa
Sub-Saharan Africa excl. South Africa
7.0
6.0
4.7%
5.0
4.0
3.0
2.0
1.0
0.0
2005
2006
Source: World Bank
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013

4. Real GDP growth picked up in Sub-Saharan Africa in 2013
%
Real GDP growth
9.0
Developing countries excl. China
8.0
Sub-Saharan Africa
Sub-Saharan Africa excl. South Africa
7.0
6.0
4.7%
5.0
4.0
3.5%
3.0
2.0
1.0
0.0
2005
2006
Source: World Bank
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013

5. Real GDP growth picked up in Sub-Saharan Africa in 2013
%
Real GDP growth
9.0
Developing countries excl. China
8.0
Sub-Saharan Africa
Sub-Saharan Africa excl. South Africa
7.0
6.0
5.0
4.0
3.0
2.0
1.0
0.0
2005
2006
Source: World Bank
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013

6. Real GDP growth picked up in Sub-Saharan Africa in 2013
%
Real GDP growth
9.0
Developing countries excl. China
8.0
Sub-Saharan Africa
Sub-Saharan Africa excl. South Africa
7.0
6.0
5.0
4.0
3.0
2.0
1.0
0.0
2005
2006
Source: World Bank
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013

7. Strong domestic demand was the main driver of growth
% 7.0
Next exports
Domestic demand
Real GDP
6.0
5.0
4.0
3.0
2.0
1.0
0.0
-1.0
-2.0
2010
Source: World Bank
2011
2012
2013

8. Strong domestic demand was the main driver of growth
% 7.0
Next exports
Domestic demand
Real GDP
6.0
5.0
4.0
3.0
2.0
1.0
0.0
-1.0
-2.0
2010
Source: World Bank
2011
2012
2013

9. Fiscal deficits deteriorated further in 2013
%
Overall fiscal deficit as a share of GDP
4.0
3.0
2.0
1.0
2011
2012
2013e
0.0
-1.0
-2.0
-3.0
-4.0
-5.0
Sub-Saharan Africa
Source: World Bank
Oil importers
Oil exporters

10. Fiscal deficits deteriorated further in 2013
%
Overall fiscal deficit as a share of GDP
4.0
3.0
2.0
1.0
2011
2012
2013e
0.0
-1.0
-2.0
-3.0
-4.0
-5.0
Sub-Saharan Africa
Source: World Bank
Oil importers
Oil exporters

11. Fiscal deficits deteriorated further in 2013
%
Overall fiscal deficit as a share of GDP
%, y/y
18
Annual headline inflation
4.0
16
3.0
14
2.0
1.0
2011
2012
12
2013e
10
0.0
8
-1.0
6
-2.0
4
-3.0
-4.0
2
-5.0
0
Sub-Saharan Africa
Source: World Bank
Oil importers
Oil exporters
Oil exportes
Oil importers
Sub-Saharan Africa
Jan-06 Jan-07 Jan-08 Jan-09 Jan-10 Jan-11 Jan-12 Jan-13

12. However, reflecting lower
food prices, inflation
decelerated in 2013.

13. Robust domestic demand,
relatively resilient FDI flows
and slower pace of inflation are
expected to continue to support
growth in Sub-Saharan Africa in the
medium term.

14. Regional GDP growth
%
7.0
Real GDP growth, 2014-16
Sub-Saharan Africa
Sub-Saharan Africa excl. South Africa
6.0
5.0
4.0
3.0
2.0
1.0
0.0
2014
Source: World Bank
2015
2016

15. Regional GDP growth
%
7.0
Real GDP growth, 2014-16
Sub-Saharan Africa
Sub-Saharan Africa excl. South Africa
6.0
5.3%
5.0
4.0
3.0
2.0
1.0
0.0
2014
Source: World Bank
2015
2016

16. Regional GDP growth
%
7.0
Real GDP growth, 2014-16
Sub-Saharan Africa
6.0
Sub-Saharan Africa excl. South Africa
5.4%
5.3%
5.0
4.0
3.0
2.0
1.0
0.0
2014
Source: World Bank
2015
2016

17. Regional GDP growth
%
7.0
Real GDP growth, 2014-16
Sub-Saharan Africa
6.0
5.4%
5.3%
Sub-Saharan Africa excl. South Africa
5.5%
5.0
4.0
3.0
2.0
1.0
0.0
2014
Source: World Bank
2015
2016

18. The region’s growth prospects
are subject to important
downside risks.

19. Risks and Vulnerabilities
External risks
• Protracted decline in
commodity prices

20. Risks and Vulnerabilities
External risks
• Protracted decline in commodity
prices
• Effects from tightening of
monetary conditions as U.S.
Federal reserve begins to taper
asset

21. Risks and Vulnerabilities
External risks
Domestic risks
• Protracted decline in
commodity prices
• Second round effects from
tightening of monetary
conditions as U.S. Federal
• Fiscal deficits
reserve begins to taper asset

22. Risks and Vulnerabilities
External risks
Domestic risks
• Protracted decline in
commodity prices
• Second round effects from
tightening of monetary
conditions as U.S. Federal
• Fiscal deficits
• Political unrest
reserve begins to taper asset

23. Risks and Vulnerabilities
External risks
Domestic risks
• Protracted decline in
commodity prices
• Second round effects from
tightening of monetary
conditions as U.S. Federal
• Fiscal deficits
• Political unrest
• Adverse weather
conditions
reserve begins to taper asset

24. Global Economic
Prospects
January 2014
Sub-Saharan
Africa
Gerard Kambou
World Bank
January 2014
www.worldbank.org/globaloutlook