Más contenido relacionado Similar a REC Webinar - Engineering Modules for Financial Return (20) REC Webinar - Engineering Modules for Financial Return2. Disclaimer
This Presentation includes and is based, inter alia, on forward-looking information and statements that are subject to risks and
uncertainties that could cause actual results to differ. These statements and this Presentation are based on current
expectations, estimates and projections about global economic conditions, the economic conditions of the regions and
industries that are major markets for REC ASA and REC ASA’s (including subsidiaries and affiliates) lines of business. These
expectations, estimates and projections are generally identifiable by statements containing words such as
”expects”, ”believes”, ”estimates” or similar expressions. Important factors that could cause actual results to differ materially
from those expectations include, among others, economic and market conditions in the geographic areas and industries that are
or will be major markets for REC’s businesses, energy prices, market acceptance of new products and services, changes in
governmental regulations, interest rates, fluctuations in currency exchange rates and such other factors as may be discussed
from time to time in the Presentation. Although REC ASA believes that its expectations and the Presentation are based upon
reasonable assumptions, it can give no assurance that those expectations will be achieved or that the actual results will be as
set out in the Presentation. REC ASA is making no representation or warranty, expressed or implied, as to the
accuracy, reliability or completeness of the Presentation, and neither REC ASA nor any of its directors, officers or employees
will have any liability to you or any other persons resulting from your use.
This presentation was prepared in May 2012. Information contained within will not be updated. The following slides should be
read and considered in connection with the information given orally during the presentation.
The REC shares have not been registered under the U.S. Securities Act of 1933, as amended (the "Act"), and may not be
offered or sold in the United States absent registration or an applicable exemption from the registration requirements of the Act.
2 © 2012 REC All rights reserved.
3. About REC
Founded in Norway in 1996, REC is a leading
vertically integrated solar energy company
and employs more than 3,100 people
worldwide
REC produces polysilicon, wafers, cells and
modules for the solar industry, and silicon
materials for the electronics industry
REC is also engaged in project development
activities in selected PV segments
REC had revenues close to USD 2.4 billion
(EUR 1.7 billion) in 2011
REC is listed on the Oslo Stock Exchange
under the ticker: REC
Over 200 patents pending or granted
3 © 2012 REC All rights reserved.
4. Agenda
Maximizing The Income Stream
Reducing Capital Expenditure
Risk Mitigation For The Revenue Stream
4 © 2012 REC All rights reserved.
5. Major contributing factors to PV project returns
REDUCE COSTS
- Reduce capital expenditure
MAXIMISE REVENUE STREAM
of equipment
- High yielding equipment
- Maximise performance ratio
- Optimised design via equipment and design
- Ongoing maintenance IRR - Efficient systems to limit
- Minimising degradation rates operating expenditure
- Incentives and subsidies
MITIGATION OF RISK
COST OF FINANCE
- Securing PPA
- Interest rate
- Technology selection
- Term of loan
- System durability
- Loan guarantor
- Service & support
- Timing of repayments
5 © 2012 REC All rights reserved.
6. Major contributing factors to PV project returns
REDUCE COSTS
- Reduce capital expenditure
MAXIMISE REVENUE STREAM
of equipment
- High yielding equipment
- Maximise performance ratio
- Optimised design via equipment and design
- Ongoing maintenance IRR - Efficient systems to limit
- Minimising degradation rates operating expenditure
- Incentives and subsidies
MITIGATION OF RISK
COST OF FINANCE
- Securing PPA
- Interest rate
- Technology selection
- Term of loan
- System durability
- Loan guarantor
- Service & support
- Timing of repayments
6 © 2012 REC All rights reserved.
7. Maximizing The
Income Stream
RIGHT HERE IN GERMANY Commercial rooftop with REC AE modules
7 © 2012 REC All rights reserved.
8. How yield impacts project return
Increases in yield can accelerate the project IRR in a non-linear fashion
PV modules are not a commodity! Project developers are prepared to pay a premium
for higher yielding modules
There are inherent technical features of REC modules that enable higher yield
generation throughout the modules life 15%
Δ IRR
11%
10%
8%
5% 5% ↑8%
→6%
0% 0%
-10% -5% 0% 5% 10%
-3%
-5% Δ Yield
-7%
-10% -10% Change In Yield
Al-BSF + Al
Linear Reference
-15%
Assumptions: Site location in Perth, Australia with a Base yield of 1650kWh/m2/yr, Debt:Equity ratio of
70/30, WACC of 11%, FiT of US$0.11/kWh and a CAPEX of US$2.70/W
8 © 2012 REC All rights reserved.
9. Why watts don’t equate to yield
Watts are a measure of power (W), which is an instantaneous measure of performance
Developers and investors are interested in energy (Wh), which is the unit electricity is
sold and the indicator which ultimately determines a projects value
Standard Test
Parameter Relevance
Conditions
Close to maximum possible irradiance; not
Sunlight
1000W/m2 representative of average expected sunlight
Irradiance levels
Normally modules sit around 25 degrees
Module
25OC above ambient, far greater temperatures than
Temperature 25OC
The light spectrum cannot be fixed as it
Light Spectrum Air Mass1.5 changes from time of day/year and many
localised effects
For non-tracking systems the sun is not at
Angle of Normal
normal incidences to the array for most of the
Measurement Incidence energy production hours
9 © 2012 REC All rights reserved.
10. Module part load efficiency is extremely important
Every module will have a different efficiency curve
REC maintains high performance through all levels of irradiance
Relative
Efficiency (%) REC Tier 1 -Si Poor Si
102%
100%
98%
96%
94%
92%
90%
88%
86%
84%
82% Al-BSF + Al
80%
0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800 900 1000
Irradiance (W/m2)
Source: REC efficiencies generated from TUV Rheinland test reports, Tier-1 and Poor-Si irradiation numbers have
been recreated form electrical data using the one-diode model
10 © 2012 REC All rights reserved.
11. Average irradiance levels highlight the STC deficiency
The STC nominal power rating is not the best indicator of expected performance
To make an appropriate assessment of a product special attention must be given to the
efficiency level at the prevailing irradiance levels. Bangkok irradiance distribution shows
the importance of the curve <600W/m2
Relative Irradiation Frequency REC Hours/
Efficiency (%) Year
Tier 1 -Si Poor Si
102% 800
100%
700
98%
96% 600
94% 500
92%
400
90%
88% 300
86% 200
84% Al-BSF + Al
100
82%
80% 0
0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800 900 1000 1100
Irradiance (W/m2)
Source: Global Horizontal Irradiance of Bangkok. Meteonorm file extracted from Pvsyst v5.55
11 © 2012 REC All rights reserved.
12. Average irradiance levels in Europe and APAC
The majority of Asia
and Europe have
average irradiance
levels under 600W/m2
between sunrise and
sunset
If you are not sure of
London
the low-light efficiency
220 W/m2
levels of a module, ask Munich 264 W/m2
the manufacturer Madrid Napoli 399 W/m2 Beijing 320 W/m2
383 W/m2 Tokyo 320 W/m2
A performance Delhi 500 W/m2
simulation used to
underpin project
Bangkok Manila 346 W/m2
finance should take 403 W/m2
this factor
into account Jakarta 370 W/m2
Sydney 408 W/m2
12 © 2012 REC All rights reserved.
13. The excess energy gain from anti-reflection coatings
Under STC conditions module power is measured at normal incidence, but…
The energy yield advantages of the anti-reflection coating are measured at 30+ degrees
Light
Transmission
REC Reflection Profile
Module Without AR Glass 99%
97%
95%
93%
91%
89%
87%
85%
0-10 10-20 20-30 30-40 40-50 50-60 60-70 70-80 80-90
Angle of Incidence
Source: REC reflection characteristics as measured by Solar Energy Research Institute of Singapore. Standard glass
reflection profile as generated by Pvsyst using the ASHRAE model using a b0 value of 0.05
13 © 2012 REC All rights reserved.
14. Sunlight falls from all different angles
The angle of light is rarely normal to the surface of the module
In Bangkok the energy captured at 0-10 degrees represents only 4% of annual total
Energy Energy/Year Light
(kWh/kWp/yr) Transmission
REC Reflection Profile
350
Module Without AR Glass 99%
300
97%
250
95%
1.2% more
200 energy 93%
150 captured
91%
100 89%
50 87%
0 85%
0-10 10-20 20-30 30-40 40-50 50-60 60-70 70-80 80-90
Angle of Incidence
Source: Bangkok angle of incidences generated using vector analysis for sun positioning based on the Meteonorm
climate file for Bangkok extracted from Pvsyst v5.55. Assumes an array facing due South tilted at 10 degrees
14 © 2012 REC All rights reserved.
15. Changes in light spectrum affect real-world performance
The universal spectrum used to classify module power at Standard Test Conditions is
called the Air Mass 1.5 spectrum
Modules efficiency will vary depending on the consistency of the light spectrum they are
exposed to.
What is the spectrum most appropriate to the project site? Depends on altitude, cloud
cover, humidity, pollution and more
REC’s New Peak Energy Plus Module
CONVENTIONAL CELL CELL WITH BACKSIDE
PASSIVATION
Light is absorbed Reflected light will
generate additional current
The blue line is the Air Mass 1.5 standard spectrum. The red line A cell with backside passivation will generate more current due to reflection of
indicates the wavelengths of light that can contribute to electricity light at the backside of the cell. Backside passivation increases the sensitivity of
generation in a silicon solar cell the cell to red light in the wavelength range between 1000 to1180 nm
Source: Entropy Production
15 © 2012 REC All rights reserved.
16. Spectrums change from location to location
Equatorial regions, such as most of Asia, generally have lower Air Mass levels due to
higher sun altitudes
However, differences in atmospheric particulates and humidity make the spectrums
between locations highly variable
Energy
(kWh/kWp/yr)
350
300
250
200 Bangkok, Thailand
150 Munich, Germany
100
50
-
Air Mass
16 © 2012 REC All rights reserved.
17. REC ranks as number 1 in yield
Photon test 2011: most recognized test comparing module brands under real
life conditions, over several years
Generated more electricity than all its 45 competitors,
6% more than test average
Average irradiance in this region is approx 230W/m2
17 © 2012 REC All rights reserved.
18. Increasing yield performance reduces CAPEX
REC is known for its high performing yield throughout the world
As simulated in PVsyst, in Asia Pacific the advantage still exists, which
translates to real value
REC 1,191
Sanyo HIT 1,191
Yingli 1,154
SunTech 1,154
JA Solar 1,143
Trina 1,124
Kyocera 1,124
Sharp 1,120
1,080 1,100 1,120 1,140 1,160 1,180 1,200
Annual Yield (kWh/kWp)
Assumptions: Yield numbers generated in Pvsyst v5.51. Site location in Tokyo with a tilt of 28 degrees oriented due
South. Sunny Tripower 10000TL inverters and module specific values for NOCT, mismatch and module quality loss.
18 © 2012 REC All rights reserved.
19. REC can command a $/W premium based on yield alone
Translating the yield numbers into a project IRR calculation the premium REC can justify
against the major competitors is evident
This premium will change depending on climatic and financial factors, however the clear
pattern is that REC maintains a yield advantage that has translated to higher ASPs
Warranty, bankability and quality advantages will further extend the premium
Sanyo HIT $0.05
REC $0.00
-$0.07 Yingli
-$0.07 SunTech
-$0.09 JA Solar
-$0.11 Trina
-$0.11 Kyocera
-$0.11 Sharp
-$0.12 -$0.10 -$0.08 -$0.06 -$0.04 -$0.02 $0.00 $0.02 $0.04 $0.06
Assumptions: Debt:Equity ratio of 70/30, Cost of Debt 2%, cost of equity 9%, FiT of JPY38/kWh and a project
lifetime of 25 years. System specific capital costs based on module efficiency and equivalent BoS costs
19 © 2012 REC All rights reserved.
21. How a module can reduce capital expenditure
Reducing system cost is more involved than simply
reducing the cost price of the module ($/W)
Modules can influence the developed cost in the
following ways:
– Increasing efficiency reduces land and mounting structure
costs
– Increased reverse current rating reduces the amount of
fusing
– A high maximum system voltage that minimises the amount
of strings and protection devices
– Cable length that minimises additional string cables
– Innovative frame design that allows for rapid installation rates
– Equipment accessories that streamline the installation
process
– Packaging that reduces waste or simplifies transportation
– By-pass diodes used to minimise yield loss from shading
– Antireflection coatings to maximise sunlight transmission
– Availability to finance via ECA
21 © 2012 REC All rights reserved.
22. REC is reducing module cost at a high rate
Singapore module cash cost
Eurocents/watt Q1 2012 costs;
March run rate at 90 Eurocents/Watt
-39% 2012 cost reductions;
127 Increased average cell efficiency
Improved sourcing of materials
-27%
78 Improved operational
performance, debottlenecking and
57 higher equipment availability
Reduced fixed costs and economies of
scale in support functions
Q3’10 Q1’12 Q4’12
target
Costs include SG&A, amortization, R&D, silicon at
market price, cash production costs and excludes
depreciation
22 © 2012 REC All rights reserved.
23. Risk Mitigation for the
Revenue Stream
RIGHT HERE AT REC REC production plant, Tuas, Singapore
23 © 2012 REC All rights reserved.
24. Durability tests to ensure long-term performance
Most PV modules are warranted for a period of 25 years but few have been in
the field for that time. Those that have are a vastly constitution than they were.
How REC guarantees the lifetime of its module:
– Highly automated production facility
– Complete quality control (machine, man, method & material)
– ISO 9001, ISO14001 & OHSAS18001 Certified in Singapore
– Optional loading up to 5400Pa under IEC61215 (551kg/m2)
– TUV Salt Mist Corrosion - Severity 6
– TUV Ammonia Corrosion
– Extended qualification beyond IEC (DHT, TC, HF)
– Combined cycle testing
TCT 200 cycles 400 cycles
DHT 1000 hrs 2000 hrs
HF 10 cycles 40 cycles
Combined cycle - (DH, TC, HF) X2
24 © 2012 REC All rights reserved.
25. Extended Qualification Testing: 2X IEC Standards
Even at 2x IEC test REC modules are still performing within the standards
REC Extended Qualification Test Results
TC400 DH2000 HF40 2X more than required
% Power loss
REC module test laboratory
IEC Pass Criteria
25 © 2012 REC All rights reserved.
26. Industry leading linear warranty for REC modules
Module bankability is key criteria for solar
REC holds a strong reputation with banks
in our active markets
25 year linear performance warranty
10 year product warranty
Maximum degradation rate of 0.7%
26 © 2012 REC All rights reserved.
27. Low customer claims provide evidence of quality
Reduced module power or plant downtime will adversely affect the financial
performance of a PV plant
Faults can occur at periodic times throughout the life of a plant. Remoteness
and lack of access to adequately trained personnel can cause systems to have
downtimes of weeks or months.
One bad module can affect the performance of an entire string of sub-array
250
PPM
Claim PPM Acc PPM 2011 Target
200
150
110
98 97
100 90
79 79
72 57
49
50 35 33 34
0
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
27 © 2012 REC All rights reserved.
28. REC has a strong track record of proven performance
Pandit Deendayal Petroleum University in Gujarat, India
(7.61% Above Expectations)
28 © 2012 REC All rights reserved.
29. REC has a strong track record of proven performance
100kW REC Factory Rooftop, Tuas, Singapore
Energy Yield Compared to PVsyst
Prediction
Section 1 4.7%
Section 2 4.3%
Section 3 7.3%
0.0% 1.0% 2.0% 3.0% 4.0% 5.0% 6.0% 7.0% 8.0%
Predicted
29 © 2012 REC All rights reserved.
30. REC has a strong track record of proven performance
REC Systems’ Performance Ratio* Examples (%)
91,8
85,7
84,0 81,9 83,7
80,5
Yield report
Actual
France Italy Freiburg
5MW 5.7MW 582kW
* The performance ratio (PR) describes the relationship between the actual and theoretical energy outputs of the PV plant. Low
conversion losses (glass reflection, temperature losses, transformer losses ...) are leading to a high PR.
30 © 2012 REC All rights reserved.
31. REC has a strong track record of proven performance
LUXEL Project with 9 different locations in France (Jan-Dec 2011)
(9% Above Expectations)
MWh %
1,000 120
900
100
800
700
80
600
500 60
400
40
300
200
20
100
0 0
Barats Peyrohitto Les Clottes Puginier St Paulet La Pomarède Fontanelles Larnier Pouzols
269 kWp 572 kWp 572 kWp 572 kWp 572 kWp 572 kWp 602 kWp 572 kWp 572 kWp
% of Expected Yield Actual Solar Production Expected Solar Production
31 © 2012 REC All rights reserved.
32. The 5 Unique Selling Points of REC Modules
More energy
per ft²
Provides more energy per square feet
Robust and
durable design
Ensures long lasting quality
Easy to install
Reduces installation time
Optimized for all sunlight conditions
Provides reliable power output and high performance
Energy payback time of one year
Made with an industry leading carbon footprint and EPBT
32 © 2012 REC All rights reserved.
33. RENEWABLE ENERGY CORPORATION
THANK YOU
REC is the exclusive owner or licensee of the content, material, and information in this presentation. Any reproduction, publication or reprint, in whole or in part, is strictly prohibited. The information in this
presentation may not be accurate, complete or up to date, and is provided without warranties or representations of any kind, either express or implied. REC, as well as its directors, officers and employees, shall not
be responsible for and disclaims any liability for any loss or damages, including without limitation, direct, indirect, incidental, consequential and special damages, alleged to have been caused by or in connection with
using and/or relying on the information contained in this presentation.
33 © 2012 REC All rights reserved.
Notas del editor Tellthemwhatyouaregoingtotellthem Read through the 3 key discussion points.The reason the presentation is structured this way is that reducing CAPEX is always a prominent issue with PV projects and reducing it is important way of enhancing project returns.Maximising the income stream and ensuring it survives is also key to meeting performance expectations There are many key inputs to assessing the profitability of a project Broadly we have separated the major issues into the following 4 categories with some key sub-categories that are pertinent to nearly all PV projects In the short time I have today these are the 3 key ingredients to project returns that I am going to focus on today Ton: Basically 100% of the revenue of a solar project comes through electricity so ensuring technology selection yields a healthy level of electricity is important- PV modules are not a commodity as invariably in the same conditions they will generate a different amount of electricity even given the same power rating- This graph illustrates that given the same CAPEX if the PV module yielding 6% more over the time period then the IRR of the project increases in a non-linear fashion. For the case here in Australia it is 8% change in IRR I mentioned in the previous slide the concept of nameplate power, here is how this works...1000W/m2 is somewhere to start the story but certainly not where it ends For the situation in Bangkok Thailand the irradiance distribution is heavily weighted toward the middle of the curve, 500W/m2 This curve serves as message on buyer beware as the marketed headline power rating is not appropriate for most projects- You wouldn’t buy a car designed to speed at 300kph if you are driving around suburban streets at 60kph This graph is interesting as it will lead me into the justification of yield back to capex valueYield is not currently the universal language in PV but is the most important for anyone at the pointy end of project finance calculationsHere is a demonstration of our superior performance in Japan as simulated by Pvsyst, the leading software for PV systems This is how the yield benefit translate to $/W, which is the universal language for PV- You can see the benefit from yield alone is significant in the premium a developer would be willing to pay for a certain module- Note Sanyo has a benefit here in that it is a more spatially efficient module and has less mounting and land costs Generally impacts and then how REC has positive influence: - increasing efficency, reduces land and mounting equipment needed some of minor electrical parameters can affect the BOS costs - reverse current rating as an exampleInnovative methods of installing can save material and labour cost, perhaps they increase the price of the module but need to look at the impact on the whole system - Relating back to REC we have many benefits to our module that reduce the system install cost but we’d also like to emphasise that our module cost is reducing at an aggressive rate and is set to remain one of the cost leaders in the market through 2012 The risk of performance over a project’s lifetime is at the heart of all risk assessments of developers and financiers- With a changing and immature technology, quality needs to be assessed from the manufacturing and product development disciplineAt REC we pride ourselves on our quality and attitude to performance longevity- Range of certifications to help assist decisions here: additional loading weelbeyind IEC minimum requirments, Salt and Ammonia as extra certifications - Which is how we can have confidence in offering an industry leading warranty- 0.7% is worst case scenario - An insight into our claims rate as proof in the quality of our processes Further proof in our performance is via these test cases in the Asia Pacific region