Katrina Bell, ANGI Energy Systems, presented information on the future of Natural Gas Vehicles in Wisconsin for our Future of Alternative Fuels in WI Showcase.

1. The North American NGV Market
Snapshot of Market Metrics, Recent Trends, Future Outlook
Katrina Bell
Marketing/CNG Business Development – ANGI Energy Systems
On behalf of
NGVAmerica

2. • Technology improvements are expanding our
economically recoverable base so much so
that the estimated supply is now @ 115+ yrs.!
• Natural gas and crude oil are decoupled
Currently, CNG saves $1.25-1.75 vs
gasoline, $1.50-2.00+ vs diesel.
• Major difference between crude oil and
natural gas as % of total fuel cost
Natural Gas Abundance Drives Price Differential
PGC Resource Assessments, 1990-2012
NG and Crude Oil Prices 1997-2012 Impact of base commodity on pump fuel price
$0.00
$1.00
$2.00
$3.00
$4.00
$5.00
$4.00 Diesel
($86WTI)
$2.00
NaturalGas
$3.50
NaturalGas
$7.00
NaturalGas
RetailMarkup
Refining/Compression,
Distribution,Taxes
RawCommodity
$4.00
2%
40%
58%
$1.50
22%
60%
18%
$1.74
20%
52%
28%
$2.30
19%
39%
42%

3. Translating Abundance into Savings
One MMBtu is ~8.0 GGE of (uncompressed) natural gas
One MMBtu is ~7.2 DGE of (uncompressed) natural gas.
If average MMBtu is ~$4.75, commodity % is $.59/GGE ($.66/DGE) .
Add gas company delivery, compression, maintenance, equipment
amortization: ~$1.50-1.70/GGE ($1.67 -1.89/DGE) + fed and state
taxes. LNG pricing derived differently but base gas cost is same

4. Snapshot of US NGV Market Today
• Existing NGV inventory: ~142K
• ~22-24,000 MDVs
– 9,000 gov’t
– 1,700 package delivery
– 3,000 airport/university/
community shuttle
– 9,000 utilities, F&B, comm.
services, household goods,
construction, misc.
• ~33-35,000 HDVs
• 11,000 buses
• 5,300 school bus
• 7,500+ refuse
• 5,000 ports/regional haul
• 4,500-5,000 muni/F&B/Misc.
• ~83,000 LDVs
(fleet and consumer vehicles)
• Cars/SUVs, trucks/vans
• 2012: ~17,450 NGVs added to US roads (net gain of ~10K vehicles)
• 2013: ~19,600 NGVs added (net gain of ~ 12K vehicles)

5. Growing Selection of NGVs from OEMs, SVMs
LD/MD Retrofits*
• Altech-Eco
• LandiRenzo/Baytech
• IMPCO Automotive
• Westport/BAF Technologies
• NGV Motori USA
• NatGasCar
• Auto Gas America
• Greenkraft
• PowerFuel Conversions
• World CNG
Retrofits of GM, Ford, Dodge, VW, Mazda,
Mitsubishi, Workhorse, Isuzu, JAC,
UtiliMaster, Freightliner Custom Chassis
LD OEMs
• American Honda
• General Motors
• Chrysler Ram Trucks
HD Truck OEMs
• Freightliner Truck
• Volvo
• International
• Kenworth
• Peterbilt
• Mack
• Thomas Built Bus
• Blue Bird Bus
• Optima/NABI
• El Dorado
• New Flyer
• Motor Coach Ind.
• Gillig
• DesignLine
HD Bus OEMs
• Mack
• Peterbilt
• Crane Carrier
• Autocar Truck
• ALF Condor
• Elgin
• Johnston
• Schwarze
• Tymco
• Capacity
HD Vocational OEMs
HD Retrofit/Repowers
• American Power Group
• Clean Air Power
• Fyda Energy Solutions
• NGV Motori
• Omnitek Engineering
Dual fuel retrofits and SING repowers of
Cummins, Daimler, Navistar, Detroit
Diesel, Mack, Volvo, Caterpillar

6. Snapshot of US NGV Market Today
• Vehicular natural gas consumption :~10-12% AGR past 6 years
– 2005: ~200MM GGE
– 2011: ~325MM GGE
– 2012: ~350MM GGE
– 2013: ~400MM GGE
– Medium- and Heavy-duty fuel use is growing
dramatically . Growth rate will accelerate with
new niche market successes, new platform
availability for MD/HD truck sector…and consumer market?
– Factors affecting timeframe include pace of worldwide economic
recovery, petroleum-natural gas differential, vehicle choices…
….vehicle and station tax credits, grants that accelerate adoption

7. Snapshot of US NGV Market Today
• Station count is now ~1485 after steady growth in past 36
months; installed capacity is up significantly.
– New stations are based on better economics, either higher
throughput with anchor accounts or aggregated loads and
better sizing of equipment to loads
– 2013 saw additional of ~250-275 stations
• About half are “public access;” emphasis today is on
upgrading experience to meet public expectations
• CNG able to handle local hub and spoke and many
regional trucking applications
• Increased LNG infrastructure is in place to serve
longer haul OTR trucking.

8. Multiple Stakeholders
Are Engaging NGV
Fueling Infrastructure
Development
• Local Gas Dist. Co.
• NG Retailers
• NG Exploration & Production Co.
• Leasing Companies
• Customers
• “Traditional” Fuel Retailers

9. Q: How Do We Solve
The “Chicken & Egg” Conundrum?
(A: Make a chicken-egg omelet*)
• Throughput (sales volume) is key to generating economies of scale for the
public access station owner, thus allowing pump price differentials that
drive reasonable payback and life-cycle savings for customers
• Minimum load thresholds vary based on a variety of factors including:
station type, station size, fuel price differential, ability to amortize
maintenance costs, equipment depreciation, grants …..ROI expectations
• Achieve minimum load thresholds by:
– Identifying an anchor fleet that justifies the investment…or
– Aggregate several semi-anchor fleets’ loads if their depots or operating areas are
geographically acceptable…or
– Create retail public access for small fleets and consumers….or
– All of the above

10. Observations/Predictions

11. “Crystal Ball” - Vehicle Sales in 2014
– 2014: 25K “new” NGVs will hit the road
• OEM LDV sales will benefit from:
– New sedan offerings (GM bi-fuel Impala, IMPCO bi-fuel Cruze)
– Increased OEM fleet sales division focus on van, pick-up products
• SVM LDV sales will grow slightly but they need to expand options
• LDV sales will hedge on NG-Gasoline price differential
– Gasoline has been relatively low (below $3.50 in most US markets;
$3.75 is the magic number that makes telephones ring
• SVM MDV sales will hedge on effort placed against the local
commercial services/delivery markets (step vans, COE units), better
integration of NG offering by FCCC, Isuzu, UtiliMaster, i/c/w SVM

12. “Crystal Ball” - Vehicle Sales in 2014
(continued)
– HDV sales will be solid due to:
• Continued 8.9L sales gains in refuse sector (“2nd tier” firms are
embracing to compete with Republic and WM),
• Flat-to-low sales growth in 8.9L transit sector depending on new transit
agencies transitioning over to NG and/or current NG transits adding to
inventory. Gains will depend on ability to retain current bus counts in
fleets that are cycling out units purchased 10-14 years ago.
• Outlook for 11.9L engine sales is strong but not as optimistic as all the
hype; look for solid sales (~5-6K units) in 2014. Feedback from early
adopters is mixed but “cautiously optimistic.” Sufficient station
development is still a major concern as is residual value (unknown)
• Excitement over expected introduction of the CWI 6.7L and Volvo 13L
HPDI, but no impact until late 2015; Cummins 15L in 2016?

13. “Crystal Ball” – Station Counts in 2014
– Station count will continue at 225-275+ rate (avg. for past 2 yrs.)
• CNG will continue to get lion’s share (due to transit, refuse, etc.).
Regional trucking operations will continue to lean more toward CNG as
on-board fuel capacity and packaging issues are resolved. LNG will
continue to capture longer haul OTR accounts; pace has been
“painfully cautious.” Public “LNG vs CNG” debate is “off the mark”…
market needs both and will continue to support both.
• LNG station development will slow until current inventory is utilized
more completely; more opening of currently mothballed Clean Energy
locations, greater fuel throughput as 11.9L trucks hit the road.
Shell/TCA station development will face same challenges that leader
Clean Energy did in 2012-2013.
• Continued development of stations based on municipal/private fleet
partnerships but difficulty of process will hinder pace of development

14. For more information please contact:
Stephe Yborra
Director of Market Development
NGVAmerica
400 N. Capitol Street, NW - Suite 450
Washington, DC 20001
Director of Market Analysis, Education and Communications
Clean Vehicle Education Foundation
6011 Fords Lake Court
Acworth, GA 30101
syborra@ngvamerica.org / syborra@cleanvehicle.org
(301) 829-2520