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1. Public Opinion
Agents of Socialization
Cultural Hegemony
Public Opinion Polling
Rational Willful Ignorance
Deliberative Polling

2. What is public opinion?
Public opinion is the aggregation of citizens’ preferences, opinions,
interests, knowledge and beliefs regarding political, economic and
social issues, problems, leaders, institutions, and events.
In a democracy or a republic (representative democracy), it is
assumed that the opinions of citizens should be taken into account
by governing elites.

3. What is public opinion?
• Preferences reflect what people want and at what intensity.
• Beliefs reflect what people think they know and how they
understand the world.
• There are costs associated with gaining knowledge.
• Many citizens “rationally” choose ignorance over gaining
knowledge about politics, government, and political economy.
• Why make the effort if elites do not pay attention to citizens.
• Informed citizens can influence elite opinions but it is not easy.

4. Origins of public opinion
• Agents of socialization
• Family
• Involuntary groups; ethnic groups, gender
• School
• Religion
• Work
• Political groups
• MEDIA; mass media, social media
• Digital networks are becoming more important as new methods of
communication reduce costs of gaining, sharing, and utilizing information.
• Coumuters are

5. Antonio Gramsci: Cultural Hegemony
• Elites may control non-elites through coercion.
• Elites prefer voluntary compliance by non-elites over coercion.
• To exercise hegemonic control, elites manipulate the cultural dialogue
so that non-elites come to accept the elite worldview as natural,
inevitable, and in the best interest of all rather than a self-serving elite
world view.
• Elite control over the processes of political socialization and
acculturation to influence public opinion
• Makes it difficult to conceptualize and implement new ways of doing
things
• Restricts the realm of the possible to minor changes from status quo

6. Measuring public opinion
• The population is the collection of the elements which has some or
the other characteristic in common.
• Number of elements in the population is the size of the population.
• The sample is the subset of the population which will be polled.
• Sampling is the process of selecting a sample.
• The number of elements in the sample is the sample size.
• Probability sampling (random sampling), where each
member of the population has an equal chance of becoming a part of the
sample, allows us to use analysis of the sample to make inferences about
the population.

7. Sample size, margin of error, level of confidence
• As the sample size increases,
the margin of error
decreases. This relationship
is called an inverse
relationship because the two
move in opposite directions.
Sample Size Margin of Error
2,000 2%
1,500 3%
1,000 3%
900 3%
800 3%
700 4%
600 4%
500 4%
400 5%
300 6%
200 7%
100 10%
50 14%
*Assumes a 95% level
of confidence

8. PEW: In which category were you placed?
Texas Govt Class: 9:30 AM
Solid Liberals 20%
Opportunity Democrats 20%
Disaffected Democrats 20%
Devout and Diverse 8%
New Era Enterprisers 8%
Market Skeptic Republicans 0%
Country First Conservatives 8%
Core Conservatives 8%
Bystanders 4%
Unanswered 4%
2017 national survey

9. PEW: In which category were you placed?
2017 national surveyTexas Govt Class: 12:30 PM Percent Answered
Solid Liberals 11.76%
Opportunity Democrats 5.88%
Disaffected Democrats 23.53%
Devout and Diverse 0%
New Era Enterprisers 5.88%
Market Skeptic Republicans 5.88%
Country First Conservatives 5.88%
Core Conservatives 11.76%
Bystanders 5.88%
Unanswered 23.53%

10. Citizen-Centric Deliberative Democracy
• Problem: Citizens are often uninformed about key public issues.
Conventional polls represent the public’s surface impressions of
sound bites and headlines. The public, subject to what social
scientists have called “rational ignorance,” has little reason to
confront trade-offs or invest time and effort in acquiring
information or coming to a considered judgment.
• Deliberative Polling® is an attempt to use public opinion
research in a new & constructive way. The goal of deliberative
polling is to discover the opinions of citizens as if they were
informed.

11. What is Deliberative Polling?
Deliberative Polling®
• The process of deliberative polling was
invented by Professor Lawrence Fishkin
while he was at the University of Texas
in Austin.
• He is now at the Center For
Deliberative Democracy (CDD) at
Stanford University.
• Information in this presentation relies
heavily on CDD materials

12. How Does Deliberative Polling Work?
1. Draw a scientific sample of the target population and gauge their raw
opinion with a telephone survey questionnaire.
2. Recruit participants from the large telephone survey sample for a one-
to two-day deliberation exercise.
3. Provide participants with balanced information presenting a range of
options and all viewpoints on the issues under consideration. A broadly
representative advisory committee oversees development of the
questionnaire, the information provided to participants, and the town
meeting.
4. Bring the participants together for the deliberation. Participants
alternate between small groups led by professional moderators and large
groups where they can question panels of experts.
5. At the end of the exercise, measure opinion of the sample again and
compare before and after results.
6. Maintain contact with the sample for future and follow-up research.

13. Experiments in Deliberative Polling
• Deliberative polling has been used for a variety of purposes in
many places around the world.
• Texas: Public Utility Commission required citizen input on utilities
future plans. Deliberative polling was used by eight electricity
providers to comply.
• Texas respondents were willing to pay a little more for green
power.
• Texas went last to first in the percentage of electricity generated
by wind.

14. Random Selection
• Elections are the current method for selecting US and Texas
government decision makers who represent their constituents.
• Most representatives use their own best judgement and political
reality to make policy decisions.
• Deliberative polling offers a method of citizen participation in
policy making in the US and Texas systems of representative
democracy.
• ELECTIONS HAVE BEEN CRITICIZED As ANTI-DEMOCRATIC TOOL TO
MAINTAIN ELITE DOMINATION AND THE STATUS QUO.

15. SORTITION: Random Selection of Representatives
• Democracy in ancient Athens relied in random selection to choose
decision makers.
• A random sample is also known as a representative sample.
• Advocates of sortition believe that it makes government more
representative.
• Eliminates election fraud.
• Reduces the cost of selecting representatives.