Global wind energy development from a European perspective focuses on three main points: 1) Mainstream wind power development has primarily occurred in moderate climates, while cold climates, offshore development, and other remote areas remain underdeveloped areas of potential for wind energy. 2) As the wind power industry continues to grow and mature, technologies are scaling up in size and migrating offshore to capture larger markets. 3) Europe remains a leader in wind power development, with many countries surpassing 5% of electricity needs met by wind and Denmark reaching over 25% through supportive policies driving further growth and cost reductions in the industry.

1. Global wind energy development from
a European R&D Perspective
SET Analysis
Jos Beurskens
SET Analysis
Jos Beurskens
WinterWind 2012, February 7, 2012
Skellefteå (S)
2012-02-07 1

2. This presentation
SET Analysis
• Putting Cold Climate issues in a wider perspective
• Mainstream developments; review
Jos Beurskens
• Similarities between CC and Offshore issues
• Towards a universal (= IEA, EU) Research Agenda
2012-02-07 2

3. CC in perspective
Why is it necessary to put CC issues in a wider
perspective?!
!
SET Analysis
Because:!
• Mainstream Politics and Industry is only impressed by
GW’s and size
Jos Beurskens
• Instead, the number of people served should be accounted
for
2012-02-07 3

4. External Conditions CC in perspective
• The vast majority of wind turbines have been installed in ‘moderate’ climates
SET Analysis
• Remote and extreme areas are under explored and exploited
Jos Beurskens
2012-02-07 4

5. CC in perspective
Remote
Rural
SET Analysis
Cold Mainstream Wind
Climate Mainstream Wind Power
Power Offshore
Jos Beurskens
Hot
Deserts
The present Research Agenda is incomplete !
2012-02-07 5

6. SET Analysis CC in perspective
• Claim x % of offshore R&D resources for CC, hot
deserts, remote& rural areas
• Claim y% of this part for CC
Jos Beurskens
2012-02-07 6

7. Various types of electricity CC in perspective
producing wind turbines
Grid connected turbines; wind farms
Grid connected turbines; small scale offshore
Grid connected turbines;
SET Analysis
wind farms on land
Jos Beurskens
Autonomous Hybrid systems (AWDS) Hybrid systems (W-PV)
2012-02-07 7

8. SET Analysis Grid connection of offshore wind farms CC in perspective
E.g.: OWEZ (NL)
Jos Beurskens
E.g.: Q7 (NL)
Bron: Arjen van der Meer, TUDelft
Photo: Jos Beurskens
2012-02-07 8

9. Electrical lay-out of autonomous CC in perspective
wind diesel systems (AWDS)
Frøya. 50 kW + 50 AWDS developed by TUEindhoven
kW and ECN
SET Analysis
Jos Beurskens
2012-02-07 9

10. SET Analysis
Jos Beurskens Autonomous wind turbines CC in perspective
Copied from National Geographic Magazine
2012-02-07 10

11. Maturity of the technologies CC in perspective
Grid connected turbines; wind farms offshore
Rated power [MW]
10
SET Analysis
1
Grid connected turbines; medium scale
Hybrid systems (AWDS) Grid connected turbines; wind farms on land
Jos Beurskens
0.1
Missing link:
Reliability of ‘mature’ technologies
Grid connected turbines; under extreme conditions
0.01 small scale
Autonomous & Hybrid (W-PV)
Circle areas indicate maturity
Rotor diameter [m]
0 25 50 75 100 125
2012-02-07 11

12. Market (31-12-2010) Main stream developments
Installed Wind Power in the World
- Annual and Cumulative -
40,000 200,000
SET Analysis
35,000 175,000
Total installed offshore wind power: 3554 MW
Total number of projects: 43
30,000 Average power per project: 83 MW/project 150,000
Average power of 10 smallest projects: 8.1 MW/project
Average power of 10 largest projects: 198 MW/project
25,000 125,000 W
r
a M
e e
y v
r 20,000
e 100,000 i
t
a
p l
Jos Beurskens
u
W m
M 15,000 75,000 u
C
10,000 50,000
5,000 25,000
0 0
1983 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010
Year
Source: BTM Consult - A Part of Navigant Consulting - March 2011
2012-02-07 12

13. SET Analysis EWEA’s wind power scenarios (in GW) Main stream developments
Annual installation rates
Jos Beurskens
Offshore is the driver !
Time lines displaced
by 16 years !
Source: EWEA
Oceans of Opportunity
2012-02-07 13

14. The evolution of wind turbines" Main stream developments
Up scaling
SET Analysis
Jos Beurskens
2012-02-07 14

15. The evolution of wind turbines" Main stream developments
Average size Wind turbine (kW), installed each year
Global Average Annual WTG in kW Source: BTM Consult - A Part of Navigant
Consulting - March 2011
SET Analysis
1,800
1,600
1,400
1,200
1,000
W
k
800
Jos Beurskens
600
400
200
0
1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
Year China Denmark Germany India Spain Sweden UK USA
2005 897 1381 1634 780 1105 1126 2172 1466
2006 931 1875 1848 926 1469 1138 1953 1667
2007 1079 850 1879 986 1648 1670 2049 1669
2008 1220 2277 1916 999 1837 1738 2256 1677
2009 1360 2368 1976 1117 1904 1974 2241 1731
2010 1,469 2,514 2,047 1,293 1,929 1,995 2,568 1,875
Source: BTM Consult - A Part of Navigant Consulting - March 2011
2012-02-07 15

16. The evolution of wind turbines" Main stream developments
Wind turbine capacity product cycle
SET Analysis
X
Jos Beurskens
Offshore
Source: DEWI Magazin
2012-02-07 16

17. Main stream developments
Wind energy share of EU electricity demand
6 000
SET Analysis
4 051
5 000 3 910
3 690
3 524
4 000 3 307
3 320
2 994
3 000
Jos Beurskens
2 000
1 154
1 000 873
581
23 182 330
83
0
2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030
Wind energy production (TWh) EU reference (TWh)
Source: EWEA and EC 2010
2012-02-07 17

18. Main stream developments
Capital cost of on- and offshore wind power
SET Analysis
3500
3000
Offshore
2500
Onshore
EWEA EC
2000
Jos Beurskens
1500
1000
500
0
2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030
2012-02-07 18

19. Main stream developments
Wind power investments
30
(€bn)
SET Analysis
25
20
15
Jos Beurskens
10
5
0
2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022 2024 2026 2028 2030
Onshore Investments (€2010 bn) Offshore Investments (€2010 bn)
2012-02-07 19

20. Main stream developments
Wind power energy sector employment
(People)
500 000 246 175 296 548
SET Analysis
169 550
450 000
400 000
350 000
300 000 86 731
293 306
250 000
Jos Beurskens
22 458 34 945 231 198
200 000
202 694
6 374 13 931 183 373
150 000 174 174
147 419 154 151
140 544
100 000
50 000
0
2007 2008 2009 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030
Onshore Offshore
Total 153,793 154,476 196,632 189,096 289,425 462,856 477,373 479,921
Source: EWEA and EC 2010 20
2012-02-07

21. Main stream developments
Installed capacity, electricity productionand share in EU demand
Contribution of electricity from RES and wind energy 1970-2010 + expected contribution
2011-2050 (% of consumption)
120
SET Analysis
100
80
60
40
20
0
Jos Beurskens
1971 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
All RES (%) Wind (%)
Wind
Total wind Average Average EU-27 power’s
Onshore Offshore energy capacity capacity gross share of
wind wind capacity factor factor TWh TWh TWh electricity electricity
(GW) (GW) (GW) onshore offshore onshore offshore total consumption demand
2020 190 40 230 26% 42.30% 433 148 581 3,690 16%
2030 250 150 400 27% 42.80% 591 562 1,154 4,051 29%
2050 275 460 735 29% 45% 699 1,813 2,512 5,000 50%
Sources: 1971-1989 3E/EWEA assumption: 1990-2008 Eurostat: 2009
EWEA assumption: 2010-2020 NREAPs: 2020-2030 EWEA (based on PRIMES consumption 2030: 2031-2050 EWEA).
2012-02-07 21

22. Main stream developments
Wind energy in 2030 – EWEA targets
SET Analysis
Onshore Offshore Total
Installed capacity (GW) 250 150 400
Annual installations (GW) 10 13.7 23.7
Jos Beurskens
Annual investments (bn€) 8.2 17.1 25.3
Electricity production (TWh) 591 562 1,154
2012-02-07 22

23. Main stream developments
Wind energy’s share of national electricity demand, end 2010
Denmark 25,6%
Portugal 15,5%
SET Analysis
Spain 15,0%
Ireland 12,9%
Germany 8,0%
EU-27 5,3%
Greece 4,3%
Netherlands 4,1%
United Kingdom 3,7%
Estonia 3,5% EU average
Sweden 3,2% 5.3%
Italy 3,2%
Austria 2,8%
Jos Beurskens
Lithuania 2,7%
Belgium 2,3%
France 2,3%
Bulgaria 2,1%
Romania 1,7%
Poland 1,6%
Hungary 1,5%
Luxembourg 1,1%
Latvia 0,9%
Czech Republic 0,6%
Finland 0,5%
Slovakia 0,0%
Slovenia 0,0%
Malta 0,0%
Cyprus 0,0%
0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30%
Source: EWEA, GWEC and International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA)
2012-02-07 23

24. Main stream developments
Wind energy capacity [kW] per 1000 citizens, end 2010
SET Analysis
Denmark 686
Spain 450
Portugal 366
Germany 333
Ireland 320
Sweden 232
EU-27 168
Netherlands 135
Austria 121
Estonia 111 EU average
107
Greece
Cyprus 102 168 kW
Jos Beurskens
Italy 96
France 87
Luxembourg 84
Belgium 84
United Kingdom 84
Bulgaria 50
Lithuania 46
Finland 37
Hungary 29
Poland 29
Romania 22
Czech Republic 20
Latvia 14
Slovakia 1
Slovenia 0
Malta 0
0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800
Source: EWEA, GWEC and International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA)
2012-02-07 24

25. Main stream developments
Installed wind power per 1000 km², end 2010
SET Analysis
Denmark 88,1
Germany 76,2
Netherlands 54,1
Portugal 42,6
Spain 41,0
Belgium 29,9
UK 21,3
Ireland 20,3
EU-27 19,5
Italy 19,2 EU average
Luxembourg 16,4
Austria 12,1 19.5 MW
Jos Beurskens
France 10,3
Greece 9,2
Cyprus 8,9
Sweden 4,8
Poland 3,5
Bulgaria 3,4
Estonia 3,3
Hungary 3,2
Czech Republic 2,7
Lithuania 2,4
Romania 1,9
Finland 0,6
Latvia 0,5
Slovakia 0,1
Slovenia 0,0
Malta 0,0
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100
Source: EWEA, GWEC and International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA)
2012-02-07 25

26. Main stream developments
Global Cumulative wind power capacity (1996-2010)
(GW)
200
SET Analysis
180
160
84,3
140
120 75,1
100
Jos Beurskens
64,7
80
56,5
60
112,7
48
40 40,5 83,8
34,4 55,6
28,5
20 23,1 37,3
17,3 26
9,7 12,9 18,6
3,5 4,8 6,5 8 10,9 13,2
2,6 2,8 3,7 3,9 4,5 6,6
0
1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
Total 6.1 7.6 10.2 13.6 17.4 23.9 31.1 39.4 47.6 59.1 74.1 93.8 120.3 158.9 197.0
Rest of the world EU
Source: “Global wind report – annual market update 2010” – GWEC 2011; EWEA 2011 26
2012-02-07

27. Main stream developments
Global annual wind power capacity (1996-2010)
45
SET Analysis
40
35
10,5 9,3
30
25
8,3
20
Jos Beurskens
15 8,5
28,3 28,9
7,6
10 18,3
6,2
5 5,5 5,8 11,3
4,4 5,9 7,7
3,2 5,3
1,7 3,2 2,7 2,4
1 1,3 0,8 2,1 1,4
0 0,3 0,3 0,2 0,6
1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
Rest of the world EU
Total 1.3 1.6 2.5 3.4 3.8 6.5 7.3 8.2 8.2 11.5 15.3 19.8 26.6 38.8 38.2
Source: “Global wind report – annual market update 2010” – GWEC 2011; EWEA 2011
2012-02-07 2727

28. Offshore and Cold Climate
Similarities
SET Analysis
Offshore &
Cold Climate
Jos Beurskens
issues
2012-02-07 28

29. R&D drivers for offshore and remote Offshore and Cold Climate
and extreme climate applications of WE
Offshore Issue Remote, extreme
Foundation, grid Cost breakdown Grid, foundation
SET Analysis
Waves, saline atm, turbulence, External conditions Temperature, humidity, icing, varying soil
sea bottom, eaxtreme winds conditions in time, turbulence (forest)
RAMS, dedicated wind turbines Wind turbne concept RAMS, dedicated CC wind turbines
3 media (soil, water, air) Support structure 3 media (soil properties highly variable,
air); (perma frost, ice)
Marine weather windows Transport & assembly Arctic weather windows
Jos Beurskens
Marine weather windows Accessibility for O&M Arctic weather windows
No electrical infrastruture; large Grid connection & No or poor electrical infrastructure; weak
scale integration on HV level integration grids
Large scale operations Scale and risks Small scale & remoteness
Marine eco-systems, shipping, oil Nature & safety Artic (marine) eco-systems, oil and gas
and gas safety safety
Wind farm interaction, alternative Spatial planning ?
use of oceans
2012-02-07 29

30. Offshore and Cold Climate
Dedicated cold climate R&D Offshore is motor for R&D
SET Analysis
Jos Beurskens
Cold Climate wind power technology
2012-02-07 30

31. SET Analysis Offshore wind turbines Offshore and Cold Climate
Cost of support structures are dominant
and are relatively insensitive to load
carrying capacity
Jos Beurskens
The wind turbines should be as big as
possible !
2012-02-07 31

32. Up scaling wind turbines" Offshore and Cold Climate
For the engineer: For the economist:
SET Analysis
mass ~ (D³) investment cost ~ (D³)
cross section ~ (D²) energy output ~ (D²)
stress (= mass/cross section) ~ D COE (= inv. cost/energy output) ~ D
Jos Beurskens
Development of advanced materials
with a higher strenth to mass ratio
2012-02-07 32

33. Three important consequences Offshore and Cold Climate
of extreme up scaling!
SET Analysis
• Extreme up scaling only possible if materials with low mass
to strength ratio become available
• Distributed aerodynamic control needed
Jos Beurskens
• More flexibility in structure to cope with (dynamic) fatigue
loads
2012-02-07 33

34. Up scaling: weight requirements Offshore and Cold Climate
for blades
Technology Evolution with Blade Size
SET Analysis
30,00 Gl-P HLU
Gl-P RI
25,00 Gl-Ep RI
Gl-Ep Prep
20,00
Blade Mass (tn)
Gl-C Hybrid 1
Gl-C Hybrid 2
15,00
New Tech 1
Jos Beurskens
New Tech 2
10,00
New Tech 3
5,00 REFERENCE
Ep Prep
0,00 P RI
10 20 30 40 50 60 70 P HLU
Rotor Radius (m ) Hybrid
Source: UpWind; CRES, GR
2012-02-07 34

35. Wind turbines Offshore and Cold Climate
Distributed blade control necessary"
Wind field
SET Analysis
Jos Beurskens
Photo: Jos Beurskens
2012-02-07 35

36. Wind turbines" Offshore and Cold Climate
Faigue load reduction by
distributed blade control"
SET Analysis
Wind tunnel tests on a scaled smart rotor –
flapwise root bending moment with and
without flap activation
Jos Beurskens
Comparison with Individual Pitch Control:
• 15-25% reduction of fatigue damage equivalent load,
depending on load case
• Can add up to 30%
2012-02-07 36

37. SET Analysis
Jos Beurskens Wind turbines" Offshore and Cold Climate
Thermoplastic blades
2012-02-07 37

38. Operation and Maintenance Offshore and Cold Climate
Planning phase
SET Analysis
Photo: Jos Beurskens
ECN O&M Tool
Ampelmann Harbour at sea
Validated by GL
Many licenses sold
Flight Leader concept
Jos Beurskens
Many wind farms
analysed
HEDEN
2012-02-07 38

39. Offshore and Cold Climate
Operation and Maintenance; Access
SET Analysis
Jos Beurskens
Foto: Jos Beurskens
Photo:Jos Beurskens
Foto: Jos Beurskens
Ampelmann concept"
2012-02-07 39

40. Access Offshore and Cold Climate
Availability = f (reliability, accessibility)
100
SET Analysis
100% accessibility Ampelmann: Hs= 2.5 m,
(onshore) 50 m vessel (93 %)
90
OWECS Availability [%]
80% accessibility
80
60% accessibility
Jos Beurskens
70
40% accessibility
(exposed offshore)
60
Strategy 1
50
state-of-the-art improved highly improved
Reliability of design [-]
2012-02-07 40

41. Offshore and Cold Climate
Lessons learned of small turbines in extreme climates
• Turbines do require ongoing maintenance
• Many locations are remote and lack onsite or accessible technical
SET Analysis
• Support and spare parts
• Potential for small faults or maintenance
• Items lead to long downtimes
• Therefore, Staging of spare parts and
• Technical knowledge at central
• Critical to long term success
Jos Beurskens
Source: EAPC
2012-02-07 41

42. R&D Agenda
Towards a universal CC
SET Analysis
Research
(& Implementation)
Jos Beurskens
Agenda
2012-02-07 42

43. SET Analysis R&D Agenda
• Physics of icing (accretion of ice; types of icing)
• Atlas of icing probability
• Impact on wind turbines; energy output, loads,
acoustic noise emission)
Jos Beurskens
• Anti-icing and De-icing
• Safety
And:
2012-02-07 43

44. R&D Agenda
Dedicated
SET Analysis
Cold Climate
Jos Beurskens
wind turbines
2012-02-07 44

45. R&D Agenda
Identification of systems
SET Analysis
• Grid connected
• Autonomous
• Hybrid (AWDS)
Jos Beurskens
• Size and capacity
• External conditions (standards)
2012-02-07 45

46. External Conditions R&D Agenda
hot & dry cold & dry
humid
SET Analysis
cold & humid
saline air
dusty wind classes I, II, III
Jos Beurskens
waves
extreme wind speed
lightning
soil
characteristics high turbulence
earthquakes
complex terrain
2012-02-07 46

47. External Conditions R&D Agenda
Surprises remain showing up !!
SET Analysis
Jos Beurskens
Russia
Source: EAPC
2012-02-07 47

48. R&D Agenda
Full integration of requirements into design
SET Analysis
• Transport & Installation
• RAMS
• O&M (Accessibility)
Jos Beurskens
• Anti- & De- icing
• Foundations & Support structures
• Decommissioning
2012-02-07 48

49. Requirement Solution Concepts
Up scaling Distributed blade control with
(Full blade pitch becomes advanced (LIDAR based) control
ineffective due to large systems
variations in the wind field in
the rotor plane)
Reliability Reduced number of components Lagerwey
(central conversion unit in wind farm,
SET Analysis
direct drive generators,
passive yawing) DOT
Hydraulic conversion
Weight reduction Two bladed rotor
Stork
(reduces rotor weight and increases Ultimate turbine
rotor speed, which leeds to reduced
drive train weight)
2B-Energy
Integrated operations and Transport of floating components. Deep Wind Selsam-Sea
Jos Beurskens
design Self erecting and installing systems
Sway
Servicebility Access technology Z Technologies
Ampelmann
Maintainability Floating cantilever structures
Lagerwey
Wind farm efficiency Movable foundations Topfarm
Non conventional wind farm lay outs
Ideol
(movable foundations)
2012-02-07 49

50. Concluding remarks
• Measuring EU targets in [MW’s] only, denies potential of wind
SET Analysis
energy in areas with extreme climates and low population density
• An adopted strategic R&D and implementation Agenda, similar to
Offshore issues is needed, among others as an input for:
Jos Beurskens
TPWind
WG4: WG5:
WG1: WG2: WG3:
Offshore devt. Policy
Wind Resources Wind Power Systems WE integration
& operation Economy
2012-02-07 50

51. Thank you very much for
SET Analysis
your attention !
Jos Beurskens
2012-02-07 51

52. Jos Beurskens SET Analysis
2012-02-07
52

53. R&D Agenda of remote and Consequences for R&D
extreme cold conditions
Priorities (1)
SET Analysis
Dedicated cold weather wind turbine concepts
• Anti icing & de-icing:
Innovations, integrated blade
design
(priority number 1)
Jos Beurskens
Intensification innovation and
using know- how from other
disciplines and technologies
(aircraft, material science, ENERCON
physics, …)"
From: Conclusions from WinterWind 2011, Umeå (S), February 9, 2011 by Jos Beurskens
2012-02-07 53

54. R&D Agenda of remote and Consequences for R&D
extreme cold conditions
Priorities (2)
External conditions
SET Analysis
• Conditions for icing (super cooling,
sublimation, (T, Humidity, V))
"
• Combination of icing conditions with other
aspects: water spray (offshore), wind speed,
altitude. NMI
"
Jos Beurskens
• Icing probability mapping of areas with high
wind potential (ʻiso icing days/annumʼ
contours)
"
NMI
• Cold climate resistant measuring instruments
and associated power supply units WindREN AB
(performance, resource assessment, ice
detection, loads, heating system control"
From: Conclusions from WinterWind 2011, Umeå (S), February 9, 2011 by Jos Beurskens
2012-02-07 54

55. R&D Agenda of remote and Consequences for R&D
extreme cold conditions
Priorities (3)
Wind turbine concepts, assembly, O&M
SET Analysis
• Impact on performance (how big are
ʻhiddenʼ energy losses?)
"
• Impact on loading (aerodynamically
and mechanical/aerodynamically
induced loads, scale effects
"
Jos Beurskens
• Transport and assembly, because of
poor access
"
• Operation and maintenance/access
"
• Safety, standards"
© In Situ 2008
From: Conclusions from WinterWind 2011, Umeå (S), February 9, 2011 by Jos Beurskens
2012-02-07 55

56. R&D Agenda of remote and Consequences for R&D
extreme cold conditions
Priorities (4)
General issues
SET Analysis
• Field test facilities for problem definition
and verification of models
"
• Feed back of operational experiences to
designers
"
Jos Beurskens
• Bridging gap between meteorological
aspects and wt technology impacts"
VTT
From: Conclusions from WinterWind 2011, Umeå (S), February 9, 2011 by Jos Beurskens
2012-02-07 56

57. R&D Agenda of remote and Consequences for R&D
extreme cold conditions
Priorities (5)
SET Analysis
• Continuous up-dating market potential
based upon Mapping, Performance
losses, Market developments"
• The grid !!!! "
Jos Beurskens
VTT
From: Conclusions from WinterWind 2011, Umeå (S), February 9, 2011 by Jos Beurskens
2012-02-07 57