Public transport systems around the world are facing financial crisis due to sharply reduced ridership brought on by the COVID-19 pandemic. Ridership is down 50-90% in many areas. The author outlines a 3 stage process for recovery: 1) social distancing with reduced services, 2) a transition period with gradually increasing demand, and 3) developing a new configuration with new revenue sources, infrastructure investment, and fleet modernization. Significant government support is needed to preserve jobs and operations during this difficult time in order to avoid system collapse and encourage use of more sustainable transport options for recovery.

1. BUILD BACK BETTER: PUBLIC
TRANSPORT & COVID-19 RECOVERY
SergioAvelleda, Director of Urban Mobility, WRI Ross Center for Sustainable Cities

2. PUBLIC TRANSPORT IS IN CRISIS
• The main characteristic of public transport is its
efficiency in moving large numbers of people
• This paradigm is being tested by quarantine
measures
– Transit ridership down between 50-90% in U.S.
– San Francisco’s BART system losing $55 million a month,
from decreased ridership and less sales tax revenue
– In Brazil, reports show a daily loss of more than R$1 billion
($188 million)

3. AND IT’S ABOUT MORE THAN JUST COVID-19
• Metro, bus and rail systems
facing declining ridership in
many parts of the world even
before the pandemic
• Rise of ride sharing, lack of
investment, poor quality of
service all contributors
• Financial constraints precede
social isolation measures,
and are now exacerbated

4. BUT TRANSIT HAS BECOME NECESSARY
By serving essential workers in healthcare,
emergency services, food services, and other
sectors, public transport has become a service not
just for riders but for everyone

5. 3 STAGES AHEAD
1. SOCIAL DISTANCING
2. TRANSITION PERIOD
3. NEW CONFIGURATION

6. SOCIAL DISTANCING & LOCKDOWNS
• Reduced and suspended services
– Porto Alegre, Brazil, operating with 25% of the
demand, facing 70% of the costs
• High fixed costs
• Some operators may be on the way to
bankruptcy

7. PRESERVATION OF CRITICAL CAPACITIES
• Economic stimulus plans must include public
transport support to preserve staff, operations,
budgets
– Public transit accounts for 430,000 jobs in the U.S.
• Coordination of efforts by local, state, national
governments needed to prevent sector collapse
• Collapses could lead to increased private vehicle
use, informal operators

8. TRANSITION PERIOD
• Demand returns slowly, alongside gradual
economic activity, and because of fear of
contamination
• Operations must adjust to maintain distance
between riders
• Balance need for safe distancing with financial
pressure to increase ridership

9. NEW CONFIGURATION OF TRANSPORT
1. New revenue sources to ensure stability to transit
operations
2. Create high-quality bus and transit infrastructure
3. Modernize and electrify bus fleets
4. Invest in cycling and walking
5. Get governance right

10. WHY INVEST IN PUBLIC TRANSPORT?
• Public transport investments in U.S. stimulus after
Great Recession generated 31% more jobs per dollar than
new construction of roads, bridges
• In South Korea, transport investments following Great
Recession generated 138,000 new jobs (15% of total jobs
cerated.)
• Broader benefits as well:
– Less greenhouse gas emissions per person
– Less air pollution (which kills more than 7 million people annually )
– Encourages walking and biking, which improves health and local economic activity
– Safer than widespread car use (1.35 million people die from road crashes a year)
– Transit-oriented development allows for more efficient expansion of core urban services
(water, sanitation, electricity, etc.)

11. COVID-19 TRANSPORT IMPACT
Sources: Jingyuan Wang, When is the COVID-19 Pandemic Over?
Evidence from the Stay-at-home Policy Execution in 106
Chinese Cities

12. SHANGHAI METRO SYSTEM
Unit: 10K Passenger
Trips
Lunar New Year Aft 2 weeks Aft 4 weeks Aft 6weeks April 6th
SHANGHAI
SUBWAY
DAILY
PASSENGER
S
2020 vs 2019

13. WUHAN LOCKDOWN
Bus: 1,085K
Sources: COVID-19 WUHAN URBAN TRANSPORT
REPORT
https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/ldHrkKq4JMoSbkZ64
Xt_Ew
Cumulative Passenger
Trips during Wuhan
Lockdown
23rd Jan to 12th March
Bu
s
Coac
h
Taxi Share
Bikes
Taxi: 568K
Share Bikes: 2,294K

14. BIKE-SHARING IN WUHAN
BEFORE AND AFTER LOCKDOWN
Before and After Wuhan
Lockdown
10.2km/h
Average Speed
8.8 min
Average Time Use of
Single trip
1.42km
Average distance of
single trip
-4.7%+29.6%+22.4%
7.5%
Long Distance Trip
Percentage (>3km)
+130.8%

15. ECONOMIC STIMULI
Transportatio
n
Total
Investment
US$5 to 6
Trillion

16. REVENGE POLLUTION