What stories will impact people and the planet in 2014? On 18 February 2014, Executive Vice President and Managing Director Manish Bapna offered his perspectives on the major global developments in economics, business, natural resources and sustainability in the coming year. The event was hosted by the Dutch Ministry of Foreign Affairs, The Netherlands. Find out more at http://www.wri.org.

1. 1
FEATURING
Manish Bapna
Executive Vice President, WRI
Image: Flickr/NA.dir

2. ECONOMIC RECESSION IS OVER
7%
6%
5%
GDP GROWTH
4%
3%
2%
1%
0%
-1%
-2%
-3%
-4%
2007
Source: IMF, 2013
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014

3. EMERGING ECONOMIES SLOWING BUT ROBUST
16%
14%
GDP GROWTH
12%
10%
8%
6%
4%
2%
0%
2007
-2%
Source: IMF, 2013
BRAZIL
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014

4. GLOBAL GDP – GETTING BACK ON TRACK
Real GDP
(2005 dollars)
$100tr
2030
$50tr
$30tr
$15 trillion
1990
1970
Source: U.S. Department of Agriculture, Economic Research Service
2010

5. THE RISE OF THE GLOBAL MIDDLE CLASS
5 Billion
2 Billion
1 Billion
1990
Source: Reuters, OECD 2010
2010
2030

6. 1.2 billion
100 million
people living on less than
$1.25 per day
children undernourished or
underweight
123 million
1 billion
youth lacking basic literacy skills
lack basic sanitation facilities
(UNDP 2013)

7. UNFINISHED BUSINESS
1.2 Billion
Overweight
Hungry
900 Million

8. EXPONENTIAL ENVIRONMENTAL TRENDS

9. THE BIG QUESTION
Can we have economic growth
and tackle poverty and
sustainability at the same time?

10. SHIFTING TO A
SUSTAINABLE
FOOD FUTURE?
1 SHIFTING TO A
SUSTAINABLE FOOD
FUTURE?
Image: istockphoto

11. The world needs to close the food gap
69%
INCREASE IN
FOOD CALORIES
TO FEED 9.6
BILLION BY 2050
Source: WRI analysis based on Alexandratos, N., and J. Bruinsma. 2012. World agriculture towards
2030/2050: The 2012 revision. Rome: FAO.

12. The world needs agriculture to support
economic development
Source: World Bank. 2012. World Development Indicators. Accessible at:
<http://databank.worldbank.org/Data/Home.aspx> (accessed December 13, 2012).

13. The world needs to reduce agriculture’s
impact on the environment
70%
Water
withdrawals
37%
24%
of Earth’s
landmass
Greenhouse gas
emissions
(Photo: Oxfam International /Flickr)

14. 32%
Increased rate of
annual yield
improvement needed
between now and 2050
Source: WRI analysis based on Alexandratos, N., and J. Bruinsma. 2012. World agriculture towards
2030/2050: The 2012 revision. Rome: FAO.

15. Most studies project net adverse impacts on crop yields
due to climate change
(3° C warmer world)
Source: World Bank. 2010. World Development Report 2010: Development and Climate Change.
Washington, DC: World Bank.

17. Menu for a sustainable food future (preliminary)
Consumption




Production
 Sustainably increase crop yields
 Boost yields through attentive crop breeding
 Improve soil and water management
 Expand onto low-carbon degraded lands
 Sustainably increase “livestock” productivity
 Increase productivity of pasture and grazing lands
 Reduce then stabilize wild fish catch
 Increase productivity of aquaculture
Production
methods
 Improve livestock feeding efficiency
 Increase the efficiency of fertilizer use
 Manage rice paddies to reduce emissions
Reduce food loss and waste
Shift to healthier diets
Achieve replacement level fertility
Reduce biofuel demand for food crops

18. Reduce food loss and waste along the value chain
(Percent of kcal lost or wasted)
Note: Numbers may not sum to 100 due to rounding.
Source: WRI analysis based on FAO. 2011. Global food losses and food waste—extent, causes and
prevention. Rome: FAO.

19. WHAT TO WATCH
1. Will global warming
start to seriously
affect yields?
2. Will the food loss and
waste movement
build momentum?

20. SHIFTING TO A
SUSTAINABLE
FOOD FUTURE?
WATER AT
RISK?
2
1 WATER AT RISK?
Image: istockphoto

21. WORLD ECONOMIC FORUM: WATER IS A
GLOBAL RISK
Water
crises

22. THREATS TO NATIONAL SECURITY
Aqueduct maps used in
2011 National Intelligence
Estimate on Water
Security requested by
Secretary of State Hillary
Clinton

23. WATER SCARCITY IS NEWS

24. WATER SCARCITY WILL INTENSIFY
People in absolute
water scarcity
1.8 B
Tens of millions will
be displaced in arid,
semi-arid regions
2025
2022
1.2 B
2014
Source: United Nations
2018

25. IN TIMES OF SCARCITY: POOR PEOPLE GET
SQUEEZED

26. AQUEDUCT WATER RISK ATLAS

27. WORLD’S LEADING WATER INFORMATION PLATFORM
- 15,000 catchments
- 12 indicators of water risk
- All open data publicly available
- Current estimates and future projections

28. WATER
39% of irrigated cropland in this region is
located ON IRRIGATED AGRICULTURE
STRESSin areas of water stress concern
Baseline Water Stress in areas with Irrigated Agriculture
NOW

29. WATER STRESS ON IRRIGATED AGRICULTURE 2025
Change in Water Stress by 2025 in areas with Irrigated Agriculture
(IPCC Scenario A1B)

30. WATER STRESS AND POWER PLANT CAPACITY NOW
Baseline Water Stress and Power Plants

31. would see water stress grow 2 to 8 times worse by 2025
WATER STRESS AND POWER PLANT CAPACITY 2025
Change in Water Stress by 2025 and Power Plants
(IPCC Scenario A1B)

32. WHAT TO WATCH
1. Will water shortages
begin to seriously affect
agriculture output and
power production?
2. Will governments and
companies take
aggressive action to
reduce water risks?

33. SHIFTING TO A
SUSTAINABLE
FOOD FUTURE?
WATER AT
RISK?
THE YEAR OF
CITIES: HOW
WILL THEY
GROW?
3
1 THE YEAR OF
CITIES: HOW WILL
THEY GROW?
Image: istockphoto

34. CITIES ARE BOOMING
274,000
people added to cities
each day for next 30 years
Image: Harvey Barrison; Source: UN-Habitat

35. AND URBAN GROWTH IS SPEEDING UP
Time required to reach 2 million:
Rome, Italy
Vienna, Austria
Vancouver, B.C.
Shenzhen, China
2000 years
400 years
115 years
20 years

36. CITIES ARE ECONOMIC DRIVERS
65%
global GDP
growth in
major cities
Image: istockphoto; Source: McKinsey and Company

37. URBAN POOR LACK ACCESS TO BASIC SERVICES

38. BUT, CITIES BRING CHALLENGES
• 75% of GHG emissions
come from cities
• 1.3 million people die
prematurely due to urban
air pollution
Image: Flickr/PauloFehlauer; Sources: UN-Habitat, UNFCCC, WHO

39. BUT, CITIES BRING CHALLENGES
$1 trillion
Projected cost to coastal
cities without adaptation

40. THIS?
Image: Flickr/RodrigoSolon

41. OR THIS?
Image: Flikr/Andreas

43. CITIES: PROBLEM OR SOLUTION?
Per capita emissions of CO2 equivalent (2011)
Source: Cai et al. 2013, Hoornweg et al. 2011, Olivier et al. 2012

44. WHAT TO WATCH
1. Which way will cities in Asia grow - up or out?
Image: Flickr/DylanPassmore

45. 4
1 RESTORATION:
A 2 BILLION
HECTARE
OPPORTUNITY?
Image: Flickr/USAID Kenya

46. FORESTS UNDER PRESSURE
50
Image: WRI; Source: Hansen et al.2013, WRI
soccer fields
lost each minute

47. BUT, THERE’S HOPE…
2bn
Source: Global Partnership on Forest Landscape Restoration
hectares with
opportunities for forest
landscape restoration

48. SOUTH KOREA: RESTORATION INTO FORESTS
1960
2000
Image: WRI

49. NIGER: RESTORATION INTO AGROFORESTRY
Pre-1990s
Image: WRI
Today

50. THE BONN CHALLENGE
150m
hectares under
restoration by 2020
Image: Flickr/CIFOR; Source: WRI

51. BONN CHALLENGE: BENEFITS
150m RESTORED HECTARES
• $84 billion in economic benefits per year
• 1 gigatons of CO2e stored per year
• Biodiversity, cultural and other benefits
Image: Flickr/CIFOR; ource: IUCN

52. A GROWING MOVEMENT
BRAZIL - PACTO COSTA RICA EL SALVADOR
(1m ha)
(1m ha)
(1m ha)
Source: WRI
RWANDA
(2m ha)
USA
(15m ha)

53. WHAT TO WATCH
1. Will more countries
make commitments
when they meet in
June 2014?
2. Will a new global
movement for
restoration emerge?
Image:

54. SHIFTING TO A
SUSTAINABLE
FOOD FUTURE?
WATER AT
RISK?
THE YEAR OF
CITIES: HOW
WILL THEY
GROW?
RESTORATION:
A 2 BILLION
HECTARE
OPPORTUNITY?
SUSTAINABLE
PALM OIL: A
NEW ERA?
5
1 SUSTAINABLE PALM
OIL: A NEW ERA?
Image: istockphoto

55. PALM OIL: A MAJOR CROP
370%
increase in palm oil
production in 20 years
Image: Flickr/carsten_tb; Source: FAO

56. PALM OIL: A MAJOR CROP
50%
of grocery store
products contain
palm oil
Source: National Geographic 2013

57. SEIZING WIN-WINS: REDUCING DEFORESTATION
Image: WRI

58. SEIZING WIN-WINS: REDUCING DEFORESTATION
Image: WRI

59. SEIZING WIN-WINS: REDUCING DEFORESTATION
Image: WRI

60. SEIZING WIN-WINS: REDUCING DEFORESTATION
Image: WRI

61. A NEW APPROACH

62. A NEW APPROACH
“There is a strong and rapidly
growing demand for traceable,
deforestation-free palm oil, and we
intend to meet it as a core element
of our growth strategy.”
–Kuok Khoon Hong, CEO of Wilmar
Source: Wilmar Press Release 2013

63. SPOTLIGHT ON FORESTS: GLOBAL FOREST WATCH

64. SPOTLIGHT ON FORESTS: GLOBAL FOREST WATCH

65. SPOTLIGHT ON FORESTS: GLOBAL FOREST WATCH

66. SPOTLIGHT ON FORESTS: GLOBAL FOREST WATCH

67. SPOTLIGHT ON FORESTS: GLOBAL FOREST WATCH

68. SPOTLIGHT ON FORESTS: GLOBAL FOREST WATCH

69. SPOTLIGHT ON FORESTS: GLOBAL FOREST WATCH
TESSO NILO NATIONAL PARK

70. SPOTLIGHT ON FORESTS: GLOBAL FOREST WATCH
Image: Jufri/ Greenpeace

71. WHAT TO WATCH
1. Will better information
expedite the shift to
sustainable palm oil?
2. Will other industries
follow?
Image: istockphoto

72. SHIFTING TO A
SUSTAINABLE
FOOD FUTURE?
WATER AT
RISK?
THE YEAR OF
CITIES: HOW
WILL THEY
GROW?
RESTORATION:
A 2 BILLION
HECTARE
OPPORTUNITY?
6 CHINA: CLEARING
THE AIR?
Image: istockphoto
SUSTAINABLE
PALM OIL: A
NEW ERA?
CHINA:
CLEARING THE
AIR?

73. 2013: A YEAR OF POLLUTION
189
days of high pollution
in Beijing in 2013
Image: Flickr/Leniners

74. POPULAR UNREST
3m
mentions of
“PM 2.5” on SINA
WEIBO, Jan 2013
Image: Flickr/Robert Moposang; Source: The Guardian

75. A DRIVER OF POLLUTION
50%
Image: WRI; source: EIA 2013
global coal
consumed
by China

76. TAKING ACTION: AIR
$277bn
budgeted for anti-pollution
measures in the next 5 years
Image: WRI; Source: China Daily

77. TAKING ACTION: CUTTING COAL
Ban on New Coal Plants
in Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou
Image: Flickr/Jonathan Kos-Read; source: ChinaFAQs

78. TAKING ACTION: ENFORCEMENT
8 cities
in China fined by
provincial government
for air pollution
Image: Flickr/Bert Van Djik; Source: Xinhua

79. TAKING ACTION: MORE RENEWABLES
12 GW
solar capacity added
in China, the record
for any country in a
single year
Image: Wikimedia: Bloomberg

80. WHAT TO WATCH
1. A tipping point on air
pollution?
2. More progress to rein
in coal?
3. Will new renewables
outpace fossil fuels?
Image: WRI

81. SHIFTING TO A
SUSTAINABLE
FOOD FUTURE?
WATER AT
RISK?
THE YEAR OF
CITIES: HOW
WILL THEY
GROW?
7
1 UN SUMMIT:
MOMENTUM
ON CLIMATE?
Image: Wikimedia
istockphoto
RESTORATION:
A 2 BILLION
HECTARE
OPPORTUNITY?
SUSTAINABLE
PALM OIL: A
NEW ERA?
CHINA:
CLEARING THE
AIR?
UN SUMMIT:
MOMENTUM ON
CLIMATE?

82. NEARLY 100 COUNTRIES WITH GHG GOALS
Source: UNFCCC

83. THE BRUTAL ARITHMETIC
200
Years it took us to use half
the world’s carbon budget
30
Years it will take us to use the
other half at current rate
To stay within 2° of warming,
emissions should peak by
2020

84. UNBURNABLE CARBON
3000
Coal 65%
2500
Two thirds of
reserves
“unburnable”
Gt CO2
2000
1500
1000
Oil 22%
500
Gas 13%
0
Budget
Source: Rystad Energy, Carbon Tracker
Proven reserves

85. EUROPEAN COMMISSION POST-2020 PROPOSAL
40%
Reduction in GHG
emissions by 2030
below 1990 levels
27%
Image: istockphoto; Source: UCS
Renewable energy
across EU by 2030

86. US POST-2020 TARGET
17%
Image: Flickr/The White House; Source: White House
emissions
reduction
by 2020

87. IPCC REPORTS – MARCH & APRIL
Image: Flickr/Gavin Golden

88. NEW CLIMATE ECONOMY – SEPTEMBER
Image: WRI

89. CLIMATE CHANGE SUMMIT – SEPTEMBER
Image: Flickr/UNClimateChange

90. PATHWAY TO PARIS
Image: Wikimedia

91. We are at a pivotal moment
Hyogo Framework for
Action on disaster risk
reduction
Conference on Financing
for Development
Post-2015
Development
Framework
UNFCCC COP 21
2015

92. WHAT TO WATCH
1. Will growing evidence
spur public pressure?
2. Will a mid-term US
strategy emerge?
3. Will the EU continue to
lead?
Image: Flickr/Philip Roeland

93. SHIFTING TO A
SUSTAINABLE
FOOD FUTURE?
WATER AT
RISK?
THE YEAR OF
CITIES: HOW
WILL THEY
GROW?
RESTORATION:
A 2 BILLION
HECTARE
OPPORTUNITY?
SUSTAINABLE
PALM OIL: A
NEW ERA?
1
8 A BILLION VOTERS:
WHICH DIRECTION
WILL THEY CHOOSE?
Image: istockphoto
CHINA:
CLEARING THE
AIR?
UN SUMMIT:
MOMENTUM ON
CLIMATE?
A BILLION
VOTERS: WHICH
DIRECTION WILL
THEY CHOOSE?

94. A MOMENT OF OPPORTUNITY
• 3 of the 4 largest democracies
to elect heads of government
• 25% of world’s population
• 40% of the global poor
Image: istockphoto

95. ELECTIONS: BRAZIL
136m
voters in Brazil
Image: Flickr/Dilma Rousseff; Source: IDEA

96. ELECTIONS: INDIA
780m
voters in India
Image: Flickr/London Summit; Source: IDEA

97. ELECTIONS: INDONESIA
160m
voters in Indonesia
Image: Flickr/World Economic Forum; Source: IDEA

98. ELECTIONS: EUROPEAN UNION
Image: Flickr.EEAS

99. U.S. MIDTERM ELECTIONS
Image: istockphoto

100. ELECTIONS MATTER
Image: Wikipedia

101. WHAT TO WATCH
1. Which way will these
elections go?
2. What will the results tell
us about the future of
economic growth, poverty
and sustainability?
Image: Flickr/Al_Jazeera_English

102. 1
TOWARDS A SUSTAINABLE
FOOD FUTURE
2
WATER AT RISK?
3
THE YEAR OF CITIES: HOW WILL
THEY GROW
RESTORATION: A 2 BILLION
HECTARE OPPORTUNITY?
4
5
SUSTAINABLE PALM OIL:
A NEW ERA?
6
CHINA: CLEARING THE AIR?
7
UN SUMMIT: MOMENTUM
ON CLIMATE?
8
A BILLION VOTERS: WHICH
DIRECTION WILL THEY CHOOSE?