Tracking Progress of the 2020 Climate Turning Point
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Highlights a new paper that assesses progress toward six milestones set by Mission 2020 – in energy, transport, land use, industry, infrastructure and finance – that if met would put governments and industries on the path toward achieving the 1.5º C goal. Learn more: https://www.wri.org/events/2019/02/webinar-assessing-progress-toward-six-milestones-global-climate-action
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Tracking Progress of the 2020 Climate Turning Point
- 1. MENGPIN GE, KATIE LEBLING, KELLY LEVIN TRACKING PROGRESS OF THE 2020 CLIMATE TURNING POINT Download the paper at www.wri.org/milestones
- 4. 2020: the climate turning point Necessary, desirable,
- 5. 2020: the climate turning point 2030: Sustainable development goals 2050: net zero
- 7. HUMAN INDUCED WARMING ~ 1˚C ALREADY IPCC
- 8. HUMANS ARE DOMINANT CAUSE OF RECENT CLIMATE CHANGE The Fourth National Climate Assessment (NCA4), 2018
- 9. HUMANS ARE DOMINANT CAUSE OF RECENT CLIMATE CHANGE The Fourth National Climate Assessment (NCA4), 2018
- 10. HUMANS ARE DOMINANT CAUSE OF RECENT CLIMATE CHANGE The Fourth National Climate Assessment (NCA4), 2018
- 11. … confidence that human activities were raising the heat at the Earth’s surface had reached a “five-sigma” level, a statistical gauge meaning there is only a one-in-a-million chance that the signal would appear if there was no warming. FEBRUARY 25, 2019 / 11:04 AM
- 12. CLIMATE CHANGE IS ALREADY IMPACTING US TODAY New York Times interactive 2018
- 13. Wildfire season has gotten almost 20 percent longer over the past 35 years worldwide
- 14. Hurricanes are becoming more devastating in a changing climate
- 15. PROJECTED CHANGES DANGEROUS AND COSTLY https://www.wri.org/blog/2018/10/8-things-you-need-know-about-ipcc-15-c-report
- 16. PROJECTED CHANGES DANGEROUS AND COSTLY https://www.wri.org/blog/2018/10/8-things-you-need-know-about-ipcc-15-c-report
- 17. PROJECTED CHANGES DANGEROUS AND COSTLY https://www.wri.org/blog/2018/10/8-things-you-need-know-about-ipcc-15-c-report
- 18. PROJECTED CHANGES DANGEROUS AND COSTLY https://www.wri.org/blog/2018/10/8-things-you-need-know-about-ipcc-15-c-report
- 19. GLOBAL EMISSIONS CONTINUE TO TICK UPWARDS Estimates for 2015, 2016 and 2017 are preliminary; 2018 is a projection based on partial data. Source: CDIAC; Le Quéré et al 2018; Global Carbon Budget 2018
- 20. WE NEED TO PEAK EMISSIONS BY 2020 AND RAPIDLY DECLINE THEREAFTER
- 21. WE KNOW PEAKING EMISSIONS IS POSSIBLE Levin and Rich (2017)
- 22. – Assess the world’s collective progress toward achieving the six milestones set by Mission 2020 that if met would put us on the path to limit global warming to 1.5º C. – Energy, transport, land use, industry, infrastructure and finance – Identify untapped opportunities for making progress toward those milestones https://www.wri.org/publication/tracking-progress-2020-climate-turning-point TRACKING PROGRESS OF THE 2020 CLIMATE TURNING POINT ANALYSIS
- 23. HOW WE DETERMINED PROGRESS
- 24. WORLD VEERING OFF TRACK FROM 2020 MILESTONES
- 25. KEY FINDINGS FROM THE ANALYSIS • While meaningful progress has been made, we are not yet on track to achieve the 2020 climate turning point. • Progress is uneven across the six milestones. • More transparent tracking of progress is needed across many areas. • Tremendous opportunities to scale up and accelerate action remain untapped across all sectors.
- 27. ELECTRIC VEHICLES EVs are projected to account for 3 percent of new car sales in 2020
- 28. HEAVY DUTY VEHICLES Five countries have HDV fuel economy regulations in place 26 cities have joined the C40 Fossil-Fuel-Free Streets Declaration
- 29. PUBLIC TRANSPORT 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% World Average North America Latin America Africa Target Average Share of Public Transport (2015) OECD, 2017
- 31. SHIPPING SECTOR ANNOUNCEMENTS Maersk announced a goal to be carbon-neutral by 2050. The International Maritime Organization (IMO) announced strategy to cut emissions at least 50 percent by 2050 compared to 2007 levels
- 33. INFRASTRUCTURE INVESTMENT The costs from shifting investments from high-carbon to low- carbon infrastructure will likely be modest
- 37. HEAVY INDUSTRY TARGETS Develop and publish roadmaps Begin implementing roadmaps Nearly 300 heavy industry companies have registered 677 actions in the Global Climate Action portal of the UNFCCC, committing to initiatives such as: • Science Based Targets (SBTs) • Low Carbon Technology Partnerships initiative (LCTPi) • RE100 • EP100 • Etc.
- 40. RENEWABLE ENERGY AS PERCENTAGE OF ELECTRICITY GENERATION
- 41. NEW AND RETIRED COAL CAPACITY If current trends continue, by 2022 yearly retirements will exceed new capacity and the global coal fleet will begin to shrink
- 43. DEFORESTATION
- 44. TARGETS AND PLEDGES FOR RESTORATION
- 48. PHILANTHROPIC SPENDING FOR CLIMATE
- 50. FINANCIAL DISCLOSURES 18 credit rating agencies committed to including environmental considerations more transparently and systematically in their ratings 580+ Signatories
- 51. FOSSIL FUEL SUBSIDIES G7 countries continued to provide at least $100 billion a year supporting fossil fuels (2015-2016)
- 52. CAPEX FOR COAL, OIL, AND GAS • Biggest movement is away from coal funding; governments and banks less and less willing to finance coal power and coal mines • Capex for oil and gas production has dropped since price of oil peaked in 2014
- 53. CARBON PRICING 52 carbon pricing initiatives implemented or planned worldwide
- 54. CONCLUSION
- 55. CLIMATE WATCH – CLIMATEWATCHDATA.ORG
- 56. QUESTIONS & ANSWERS Attendees can submit questions using the Q&A function at the bottom of their screen. Download the Paper www.wri.org/milestones Contact Us Kelly Levin, kelly.levin@wri.org
Notas del editor
- The pathway we’re on to 2020
- Another climate summit
- This time it’s different
- The world at net zero: it’s going to be tremendous
- So where are we today? We've already seen 1 degrees C of warming to date due to human activities. And we are seeing the impacts of this amount of warming unfolding around us – from greater rainfall, to fires, to heat waves, to coral bleaching.
- Both human and natural factors influence Earth’s climate, but the long-term global warming trend observed over the past century can only be explained by the effect that human activities have had on the climate. The black line here shows the observed annual average global surface temperature for 1880–2017 as a difference from the average value for 1880–1910. This graphic shows the temperature changes simulated by a climate model when only natural factors (the yellow line) are considered. You can see that natural drivers have stayed relatively constant on average.
- This graphic shows the simulated changes in global temperature when considering only human influences (the dark red line). The smaller effects of cooling are dominated by the large warming influence of greenhouse gases such as carbon dioxide and methane.
- This graphic shows the temperature change (orange line) simulated by a climate model when both human and natural influences are included. Only when you consider all human and natural influences can we explain the consistent warming trend since the 1960s.
- A recent study in Nature Climate Change shows just how clear the evidence has become that climate change is a result of human activity. They found that there is only a one-in-a-million chance that these climatic changes would occur if there was no warming. Humanity cannot afford to ignore such clear signals.
- And we are seeing the impacts of a rapidly changing climate. For example, here is a graphic showing Arctic sea ice extent. Arctic sea ice behaves a bit like a human waistline, packing on weight in the winter and slimming down in the heat of summer. But while many of us struggle to lose weight, the Arctic has been struggling to maintain it. As you can see here, the maximum extent of Arctic sea ice cover last winter was the second-lowest since satellite record-keeping began. https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2018/03/23/climate/arctic-ice-maximum.html
- In a recent Nature article, scientists found that fire weather seasons have lengthened across 29.6 million km2 (a quarter of the Earth’s vegetated surface), resulting in a 19% increase in global mean fire weather season length. In the US (right hand chart) warmer and drier conditions have contributed to an increase in large forest fires in the western United States and Interior Alaska over the past several decades Fires impact global ecosystems, societies, economies and climate. https://www.nature.com/articles/ncomms8537
- And storms are getting worse. The intensity, frequency and duration of hurricanes in the North Atlantic, as well as the frequency of the strongest hurricanes, has increased since the early 1980s.
- The global community had previously agreed to limit warming to 2 degrees C and now we know that the dangers of 2 degrees will be devastating. And the impacts of a 1.5 degrees C world are still significant.
- Global emissions were roughly 52 GtCO2e in 2016. After what we thought was a flattening of emissions growth previously, we continue to see emissions on the rise. For example, global fossil CO2 emissions have grown 63% over 1990 And emissions are projected to keep rising – they are estimated to be 52-58 GtCO2e by 2030. That means they are expected to increase even with the full implementation of national climate commitments, or the NDCs. Annual emissions need to be about half that (25-30 GtCO2e/yr on average) by 2030 to limit warming to 1.5˚C (with no or low overshoot). While it’s still technically feasible to avoid a 1.5˚C rise in temperature, behavior and technologies will need to shift across the board in order to achieve these emissions reductions.
- In order to have a chance of staying within the 1.5-2°C limit with a likely probability for the least cost, scientific research has found that global GHG emissions need to peak by 2020 at the latest. A later peak date will require unprecedented rates of decarbonization and reliance on unproven technologies at scale, such as bioenergy combined with carbon capture and storage, to compensate for the delay, with the resultant risk of overshooting temperature targets.
- Encouragingly, we know peaking is possible because some countries have already done it. But coupled with peaking, for those countries that have peaked their emissions, the rapid decline in emissions after peaking is just as important if we are to avoid the worst impacts of climate change. https://www.wri.org/publication/turning-points-trends-countries-reaching-peak-greenhouse-gas-emissions-over-time https://www.wri.org/blog/2017/11/turning-point-which-countries-ghg-emissions-have-peaked-which-will-future
- Here is a snapshot of our overall progress.
- [Outcome: Electric vehicles account for 15–20% of new car sales globally.] The first outcome look as market share of electric vehicles. As the chart shown here, global annual sales of electric vehicles (EVs) have grown exponentially. However, the share of EVs in global sales is still minimum, just 1.4 percent of the over 80 million cars sold in 2017. Bloomberg projects EVs to account for 3 percent of new car sales in 2020.
- [Outcome: Heavy-duty vehicle efficiency standards are 20% higher across all major economies; transport routes in major cities are operated with zero-emissions modes.] Emissions from HDVs have been steadily increasing since 2000. Only five countries - Canada, China, India, Japan, and the United States, currently have HDV fuel economy regulations in place.
- [Outcome: Public transport doubles its market share.] In 2015, the average share of public transport of trips taken globally was 19 percent. The modal share of daily trips also differs significantly by region, ranging from 7 percent in North America, 22 percent in Latin America, and over 27 percent in Africa (OECD 2017).
- [Outcome: The aviation sector reduces total emissions per kilometer traveled by 20% below 2013 levels.] International aviation emissions intensity has been on the decline as the left hand side chart shows a 30% reduction comparing to 2000 values as a bench mark, even distance travelled has more than doubled during the same time period.
- [Outcome: The shipping sector announces plans for market measures or other instruments to eliminate emissions from their sector.] The International Maritime Organization (IMO) adopted its initial strategy April 2018 to peak emissions from international shipping as soon as possible, to reduce carbon emissions at least 50 percent by 2050 compared to 2007 levels, and to pursue efforts to phase out emissions as soon as possible this century. During COP 24 just last December, Maersk, the world’s largest container shipping company, announced its commitment to be carbon-neutral by 2050. The company also stated in order to do so, carbon-neutral vessels need to be commercially available by 2030, and accelerated technology innovation will be needed.
- [Outcome: At least USD $300 billion is invested annually to support infrastructure decarbonization, in addition to the necessary $6 trillion in annual business-as-usual infrastructure.] Investing in sustainable infrastructure is not necessarily costly and can be achieved without compromising economic development (NCE 2014). http://static.newclimateeconomy.report/wp-content/uploads/2014/08/BetterGrowth-BetterClimate_NCE_Synthesis-Report_web.pdf
- [Outcome: New buildings are built to zero- or near-zero-energy standards.] Building sector represents nearly a third of global energy use and thus significant portion of energy-related emissions. The left hand chart shows the steady growth of world's total building stock since 2000, and the area is expected to nearly double by 2050 [growing at a rate of 5.5 billion square meters (m2) per year to almost 415 billion m2 in 2050, compared to the current global building stock of 223 billion m2 (GABC 2016)]. The building sector emissions growth is relatively minor while driven by population and floor area growth. This is due to both the decarbonization of the power grid, and improved energy efficiency in buildings. The right hand chart shows the exponential growth of the number of zero-energy buildings since 2012 in the United States and Canada, with nearly 500 projects identified in 2018. However, estimates from IEA shows high performance buildings such as [near-zero-energy buildings (nZEB)] account for less than 5 percent of construction in most markets today (IEA 2018d), and still well less than 1 percent of the global building stock (Laski and Burrows 2017).
- [Outcome: At least 3 percent of the world’s existing building stock, on average, is upgraded to zero- or near-zero-emissions structures annually] This map shows building codes in countries identified in IEA's building energy efficiency policies database targeting at new and/or existing buildings. Less than a third of countries had introduced mandatory building energy codes or building energy certifications in 2017, and only 18 countries have building codes targeted at the existing building stock (IEA 2018a), and many of these codes are not mandatory.
- [Outcome: Heavy industry firms have developed, published, and begun implementing roadmaps for their transition to a decarbonized economy in 2050:] In the Global Climate Action portal of the UNFCCC, nearly 300 heavy industry companies in the industrial, materials, and energy sectors have registered 677 cooperative and individual actions , committing to various initiatives such as Science Based Targets (SBTs), Low Carbon Technology Partnerships initiative (LCTPi), RE100, EP100, Reduce Short-Lived Climate Pollutant Emissions, Putting a Price on Carbon, and numerous individual actions registered under CDP among many others.
- [Outcome: Heavy industries are increasing their energy, emission, and material efficiencies and are on a trajectory to halve emissions by 2050 using science-based targets. While significant commitments have been made, emissions under reference case (shown in the RTS in the chart here) are currently off track to be consistent with the temperature goals of the Paris Agreement. A more circular economy through improved material and energy efficiency can reduce CO2 emissions from plastic, steel, aluminum, and cement by 40 percent by 2050. By deploying energy and material efficiency measures and best available technologies (such as recycling postconsumer scrap to offset primary production of materials; sustainable utilization of industrial wastes and by-products, as well as recovering excess energy flows) , emissions could be kept at a level below current levels through 2060 (IEA 2017a). For a trajectory to halve emissions by 2050 and to reach a Paris-compliant scenario, or limit warming even lower, switching to low-carbon fuels and innovative low-carbon technologies such as low-carbon hydrogen generation, solar thermal for alumina refining, and carbon capture and sequestration (CCS) will be needed in the longer term (IEA 2017a).
- [Outcome: Renewables make up at least 30 percent of the world’s electricity supply] Looking at the first energy outcome to increase the proportion of electricity coming form renewable sources, there has been significant progress over the past ten years towards the 30% outcome, moving from 18% in 2007 to 25% in 2017. IRENA's recent analysis that electricity generated from renewables will be consistently cheaper than electricity from most fossil fuels by 2020, combined with models showing that if countries continue to accelerate action they could reach nearly 30% electricity from renewables by 2020, achieving this outcome appears tentatively on track. Significant cost declines for renewable generation technologies, particularly solar, which has seen reductions on the order of 80% over the past ten years, have propelled this shift.
- [Outcome: No new coal-fired power plants being built All existing coal-fired power plants are in the process of being retired] Complementing the shift toward renewables and away from fossil fuels, coal capacity additions are slowing, and more coal plants are being retired – up from 2 GW in 2006 to 28 GW in 2017 – but looking in global net terms, coal capacity is still being added, making the outcome of no new coal plants and retirement of all existing coal plants out of reach for 2020. While over 2000 GW of coal still remains in operation globally, China and India, which have the most coal capacity in the pipeline, have both announced significant amounts of canceled coal capacity in recent years. Globally more than 1400 GW of coal was in the pipeline in 2016 and that’s dropped by more than half to just over 650 GW in 2018. If current trends continue, by 2022 yearly retirements will exceed new capacity and the global coal fleet will begin to shrink.
- [Outcome: The world’s nations, civil society institutions, and corporations act to end net deforestation by the 2020s, putting us on a path to reducing emissions from forestry and other land use 95 percent below 2010 levels by 2030] The data in net terms show a gradual decline in net natural forest loss (shown in blue). This counts natural forest growth in one area as offsetting loss in a different area. To show nuance that can be lost when just looking in net terms, we’ve also chosen to show gross tree cover loss, which counts forest loss and forest re-growth separately. New data on the drivers and locations of gross tree cover loss adds more detail, showing that commodity driven deforestation is the most likely of the four drivers to cause permanent loss and is largely confined to the tropics, while other drivers are less permanent and more likely to happen in non-tropical areas. This data can help direct efforts to combat deforestation around tropical, commodity-driven forest loss.
- [Outcome: Restore and conserve at least 150 million hectares of degraded land, enhancing biodiversity and building ecosystem resilience] The second land use outcome, to restore 150 million hectares of forest, aligns with the goals of the Bonn Challenge, which was launched in 2011. Under the Bonn Challenge, countries have already made commitments to restore 94 million hectares by 2020 and an additional 76 million hectares by 2030 as part of the New York Declaration on Forests, which extended the Bonn Challenge’s goal and timeline. There has not yet been a comprehensive assessment of progress on these commitments, which is why this outcome is marked as “insufficient data”.
- [Outcome: Ramp up the implementation of sustainable agricultural practices that reduce CO2 emissions, increase CO2 removals, and halt the growth in non-CO2 emissions] Looking at the impact of agriculture on the climate, direct agricultural emissions have been steadily increasing and are likely to continue doing so as the population grows and development gives more people access to energy-intensive, western diets, meaning we are not on track to meet the outcome of halting the growth of CO2 and non-CO2 emissions from agriculture. There is significant potential to decrease the impact of agriculture both on the production side, through implementation of agricultural practices that increase productivity and resilience without expanding land area, and on the consumption side, through efforts to shift diets away from the most resource intensive foods and to reduce food loss and waste, which alone causes emissions in line with the third largest greenhouse gas emitting country. Though it is difficult to track implementation of these efforts globally, emissions trends tell us we are still moving in the wrong direction.
- [Outcome: Invest at least $200 billion of public and $800 billion of private resources in climate action each year] There has been steady growth in total climate finance flows in recent years. With the available data, the outcome of $200 billion in public finance has been met already, though doesn’t necessarily represent the full scope of climate finance needs in 2020. On the private side, where the data here only covers a portion of all sectors, there is a longer way to go to meet the $800 billion outcome target.
- [Outcome: Increase the amount of philanthropic funding for the climate movement tenfold from 2016 levels] A component of total climate finance flows, philanthropy for climate action has increased slowly for the years for which data is available (the chart here only includes, in blue, data from US foundations). In 2018 at the Global Climate Action summit, 29 philanthropies from around the world committed to spending $4 billion over the next five years, which, if spent in equal amounts each year would represent a significant increase over current levels, but would still fall short of the outcome to increase philanthropic spending tenfold from 2015 levels by 2020.
- [Outcome: Multiply the green bond market annual issuance tenfold from 2016 levels] Green bond issuance has seen strong growth over the past ten years up from less than $4 billion in 2008 and 2009 to more than $167 billion in 2018 (the 2018 number listed here was revised upward after publishing). After doubling between 2015 and 2016 and again between 2016 and 2017, issuance leveled off in 2018.
- [Outcome: Institutions disclose climate-related financial risks and that credit ratings fully incorporate them] The Task Force on Climate-Related Financial Disclosures released their recommendations for what climate-related risk information companies should disclose in 2017 and since then over 580 companies and organizations have signed on as supporters. Pilot programs are underway to provide guidance on how to approach these recommendations and it is too soon to assess progress on their implementation. At the same time, 18 credit rating agencies have committed to more systematically and transparently include environmental considerations in their ratings, though implementation of this is hard to track.
- [Outcome: Eliminate fossil fuel subsidies] According to the most recent data available from the OECD and IEA, fossil fuel subsidies have declined in recent years, though at a rate that’s not nearly fast enough for them to be eliminated by 2020, as outlined in this outcome. Partial data for 2016, covering only OECD countries, show that subsidy levels have remained about the same between 2015 and 2016, and data for G7 countries (also 2015-2016) shows they still provide more than $100 billion a year supporting fossil fuels.
- [Outcome: Cancel capital expenditure for coal, oil, and gas production] Complementing the earlier energy outcome around canceling plans for new coal plants and retiring existing ones, this outcome aims to cancel capital expenditure for upstream production of coal, oil and gas. Market dynamics and regulatory pressure are already driving this shift in some places, with progress varying by fuel type and country ******************** https://www.nytimes.com/2016/03/21/business/dealbook/as-coals-future-grows-murkier-banks-pull-financing.html
- [Outcome: Implement a carbon pricing mechanism within and across all major economies] As of late 2018, 52 carbon pricing initiatives had been implemented or were planned for implementation, including 25 emissions trading schemes and 27 carbon taxes, which together cover 19.5 percent of global GHG emissions. This represents a nearly four-fold increase from 10 years ago, when 5 percent of emissions were covered. However, meeting the outcome of all major economies having a carbon price by 2020 appears unlikely. Using the G20 as a proxy, 14 of the 20 have carbon pricing implemented or planned at the national or subnational levels. Even with this progress, prices often remain too low or could cover a larger percentage of the country’s emissions. As an indication of potential growth, 88 NDCs covering 56 percent of global emissions plan to use or are considering using carbon pricing or market mechanisms, and more than 1400 companies and 6 of the multilateral development banks are beginning to use internal carbon pricing to incorporate the costs of carbon in their investment decisions and operations.
- There are tremendous, untapped opportunities for scale up and accelerate action across all sectors. And the benefits of achieving this transformation are significant. Acting sooner rather is critically important, especially to avoid building new carbon-intensive infrastructure that would operate for decades. Everyone has a role to play in taking action today and strengthening commitments. While technically feasible to reach many of these milestones, time is of the essence.
- Climate Watch is designed to empower policymakers, CSOs, and other stakeholders with data, visualizations, and resources needed to track the state of national and global climate action. On Climate Watch you can review the climate data for every country in the world, analyze and compare national climate targets, explore historical and projected emissions, identify links between climate plans and sustainable development objectives and much more. This resource is available for anyone to use. Visit climatewatchdata.org.