Talk at Strata Summit, NY Sept 2011

1. Atmospheric Analytics
Michael Ferrari
CSC

2. Atmospheric Analytics
How has weather & climate data availability changed?
How are smart businesses are relying on, and profiting from,
the ubiquitous weather & climate data?
WCI: Technology/Methodology transfer
What is on the horizon/NASA-NCCS….?

3. Source: NASA Goddard Space Flight Center

4. Source: NASA Goddard Space Flight Center

6. Mount Washington, NH
Dimbokro, Cote-d’Ivoire

7. Weather Black Swans
Source: Weather Trends International

8. From J. Schnase, NASA

11. Source: Lloyds, Forecasting Risk, 2011
Source: National Center for Environmental Prediction

12. Modern Era Retrospective analysis for Research Applications
MERRA:
Publicly available,
28 Physical Parameters
1979-present
Source: NASA Goddard Space
Flight Center, MERRA

13. Network Analysis – Reanalysis data application
Source: Elsner et al, Geophys. Res. Ltrs, 2009

14. Applying WCI to Global Food Supply & Price Risk Management
(C)
(B) (E)
(E)
(C)
(A)
(A)
(D)
(D)
(F)
(B)

16. Food Production

17. Food Production
Extreme Events
(Pakistan Floods)

18. Food Production
Extreme Events
(Pakistan Floods)
Monsoon Activity

20. New Business Models will emerge
Combining Strata with Where

21. New Business Models will emerge
Mining Environmental Sensor Network data
Source: NSF CyberInfrastructure Report, 2003

22. New Business Models will emerge
Scientific Data Services:
Climate Data Service

23. WDGD?

25. Apply Climate &
Weather Informatics
to
Do Things That Matter

29. 35/40

30. MERRA Diagnostics – Reanalysis data for applied models

31. MERRA Diagnostics – Reanalysis data for applied models

32. WCI Summary
• Applying climate indices to scenario planning is the classic case of ‘Decision Making Under Uncertainty’.
However, using a traditional forecast as an operational tool is difficult beyond a 7-10 day window (introduction
of error, etc.)
• With more data and more tools to analyze data, current climate indices can be applied, as well as new climate
indices developed (teleconnections)
• Risk Quantification becomes an operational issue as well as a financial issue
• NASA/NOAA data repositories are a wonderful testbed for the applied data scientist
• Use reanalysis information (NASA/NOAA) to monitor, and adjust, prior assumptions. Flexibility enables
robustness.

33. WWDD?

34. Thanks
• Edd Dumbill
• Mac Slocum
• John Schnase, PhD
• Phil Webster, PhD
• Dan Walker, PhD