In the third installment of the Copernicus Marketing Planning 3.0 webcast series, Copernicus’ Rolf Olsen explained a critical element of marketing mix optimization: understanding how different media channels work together, build off each other, and directly or indirectly contribute to sales. In this webcast, Rolf demonstrated how to evaluate the effects of different media on each other and apply these insights to media decisions. He offered techniques for disentangling the true impact of all bought, owned, and earned media channel and a how-to on simulating different media scenarios to forecast ROI and sales He will use case examples to demonstrate how a deeper understanding of the synergistic performance of all channels can substantially improve your ability to do marketing mix optimization work and improve current and future media plans.

1. Optimizing Your Media Plan for the
Bought/Owned/Earned Marketing Landscape
Rolf Olsen, VP, Director of MarketingAnalytics
Tuesday,June 25,2013
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2. WELCOME TO PART 3!
2 weeks, 5 webcasts, improved marketing effectiveness
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3. 3
SERIES SCHEDULE
1. Transformational Marketing Mix Optimization Using a Virtual Marketplace
Date: Tuesday, June 18
Time: 1 pm EDT
Presenter: Jeffrey Maloy, SVP and CMO
2. Using a Virtual Marketplace to Evaluate Your Marketing Strategy
Date: Wednesday, June 19
Time: 1 PM EDT
Presenter: Eric Paquette, Senior Vice President
3. Optimizing Your Media Plan for the Bought-Owned-Earned Marketing Landscape
Date: Tuesday, June 25
Time: 1 pm EDT
Presenter: Rolf Olsen, Vice President, Director, Marketing Analytics
4. Leveraging Marketing Investments with Marketing Mix Modeling
Date: Wednesday, June 26
Time: 1 pm EDT
Presenter: Irina Pessin, Managing Partner, Data2Decisions US
5. Marketing Analytics: 5 Things Every CMO Should Know
Date: Thursday, June 27
Time: 1 pm EDT
Presenter: Peter Krieg, President and CEO

4. MY BACKGROUND
 Leading our new MarketingAnalytics
practice for Copernicus
– 8+ year (and counting) tenure with
Aegis Media
– Worked with clients across all major
industry verticals
– Prior to transferring from the UK, I lead
and developed the Social Analytics
practice for Aegis in the UK
 My focus
– Helping our clients navigate the
increasing complex media landscape,
creating analytical solutions, which
help our clients maximize the impact of
their marketing campaigns
ROLF OLSEN, VP, DIRECTOR OF MARKETINGANALYTICS
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5. THE STARTING POINT
THE INDUSTRY HAS FRAGMENTED
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6. THE NEED FOR INNOVATION IN MARKETING ANALYTICS
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B/O/E = ANALYTICAL COMPLEXITY

7. STARTING FROM A DIFFERENT PLACE
RETHINK THE OBJECTIVE
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8. ACCESSING THE LANDSCAPE
 Agent Based Models (ABM)
 VECMs / VARs (Non-Linear
Econometrics)
 Bayesian Probability
 Machine learning algorithms
 Monte Carlo simulations
 Neural Nets
COMPUTATIONAL MODEL TECHNIQUES
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9. COMPUTATIONAL MODELING
CREATING THE RIGHT APPLICATION
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10. DEVELOPING THE RIGHT FOCUS
BOE
• Evaluate all
Bought,
Owned &
Earned
channels with
the same
currency
Game
Theory
• How to gain
market share
from the
competition
Segments
• Evaluate the
contribution
from
segments and
define the
most impactful
targeting
strategy
Messaging
• Identify most
efficient
product and
attribute
message
strategy
Simulation
Engines
• Test the
unknown,
validate plans
and
assumptions
• Maximize
media
performance
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ADDRESSING THE KEY CHALLENGES

11. ADDRESSING THE BIG MARKETING CHALLENGE
EFFECTIVE B/O/E MARKETING PLANNING
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12. TAKING THE EXTRA STEP
ITS NOT ABOUT STATIC OUTPUTS
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13. CASE STUDY
BRINGING THE APPROACH TO LIFE
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14. ANALYSIS OBJECTIVES
Contribution from advertising across B/O/E for product
portfolio
Account for synergistic role of media across B/O/E touch
points (i.e.: How does TV influence Display performance?)
How can we best optimize within digital to deliver
incremental sales lift?
Quantify the potential impact of performance optimizations
TACTICAL PAID OPTIMIZATIONS
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15. 1. B/O/E NETWORK ANALYSIS
UNCOVERING CHANNEL SYNERGIES
Non-Linear econometric models, utilizing VECMs or VARs create a structural
shift from traditional econometrics by using multiple dependants vs. just one.
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16. ADDRESSING THE ROLE OF OWNED & EARNED
ACCESS THE BEST DESTINATION
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17. UNCOVERING THE DRIVERS OF EARNED
FUEL ECOSYSTEM PLANNING
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18. 2. FLIGHTING ANALYSIS
OPTIMIZE THE FLIGHTING AND SYNERGY
CHALLENGE
•Should we
leverage
Continuous vs.
Pulsing flighting
strategies?
•How do we best
maximize the
effectiveness of
Display and TV?
•Can we provide
insight on
effectiveness
decay?
INSIGHT
•Contribution from
Display
impressions
indicate poor
sales contribution
for both Brand X &
Y
•Network analysis
highlights the two-
way impact of TV
& Display on
channel
performance
•As seen with in
this category,
creative/media
wear out occurs
within three
months
ACTION
•Adjusting the
display flighting
strategy to a
staggered 1-2-3
burst (high to low),
with a one week
break, will
maximize the
response curve
function for
display
•Flighting strategy
will also help to
maximize the
performance of a
creative within the
three month cycle
•Optimize display
flighting strategy
to maximize
synergistic
relationship
between TV and
Display
IMPACT
•The estimate
impact from the
display pulsing
strategy is
$4,816,675
•Direct contribution
from Display
Impressions
increases from 0.3
to 0.8% for both
Brand X & Y
•Maximizing this
Display flighting
strategy with TV
has the potential
to deliver
incremental sales
of $17,103 for
Brand X &
$146,928 for
Brand Y, by
maximizing the
impact for Display
during TV flighting
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19. 0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13
Response Curves
Observed Response Predicted Response
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
0
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
30,000
35,000
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13
Current Flighting
Current Flighting Observed Response
0.83%
Contribution
from Display
Impressions
Zero-Sum
Difference
0.3% & 0.2%
Contribution
from Display
Impressions
0
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13
Impression Flighting
Current Flighting Proposed Flighting
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
0
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
30,000
35,000
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13
Proposed Flighting
Proposed Flighting Predicted Response
Brand X – 55,509 Incremental Units at a value of $2,357,562
Brand Y – 46,089 Incremental Units at a value of $2,459,113
FLIGHTING OPTIMIZATION IMPACT
“ZERO SUM BUDGET CONSTRAINTS”
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20. 3. SCENARIO PLANNER
• Having completed the Network
analysis, we now want to leverage
the model outputs within the
scenario planner for testing possible
optimization scenarios
Overview
• Test the impact of inter-channel
optimizations
• i.e. within digital as in this case
• Quantify the performance impact of
optimizations with incremental sales
Analysis Objective
OPTIMIZING DISPLAY PERFORMANCE
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21. SCENARIO PLANNER IN ACTION
OPTIMIZE WITHIN DISPLAY
CHALLENGE
• How do we
best optimize
within digital
to deliver
incremental
volume or
ROI?
INSIGHT
• The scenario
planner
facilitates the
ability to
optimize
Display
performance,
using the
modeled
Display cuts
• This allows us
to highlight
good and
poorly
performing
site buckets
• USH cuts
indicate
strong
performance
ACTION
• Using the site
bucket
contribution
grid as a
starting point,
we created a
number of
scenario
optimizations,
while not
moving more
than 10%
within buckets
IMPACT
• The estimate
impact from
the proposed
optimizations
is $2,224,805
• 70% Brand X
• 30% Brand Y
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22. “ZERO SUM” PERFORMANCE OPTIMIZATION
FLIGHTINGANALYSIS
• Performance
Summary
• Brand X
• 55,509 Inc Units
• $2,357,562 Sales
cont.
• Brand Y
• 46,089 Inc Units
• $2,459,113Sales
cont.
DIGITALOPTIMIZATION
• Performance
Summary
• Totalimpact
• $2,224,805
• Brand X
• $1,557,363 Sales
cont.
• Brand Y
• $667,441 Sales
cont.
TV/DISPLAYSYNERGY
• Performance
Summary
• Totalimpact
• $164,031
• Brand X
• $17,103 Sales
cont.
• Brand Y
• $146,928 Sales
cont.
OPPORTUNITY SUMMARY
TOTAL POTENTIAL OPTIMIZATION IMPACT = $7,205,511
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23. THANK YOU FOR YOUR TIME TODAY!
QUESTIONS?
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24. For a PDF of this presentation and our advertorial
on using big data for marketing planning.
Email ami.bowen@copernicusmarketing.com
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25. LeveragingMarketing InvestmentsWith
Marketing Mix Modeling
Irina Pessin, Data2Decisions US
June 26, 2013
Data2Decisions
Irina Pessin
Managing Partner, Data2Decisions US
+1 347 406 0247
Irina.Pessin@d2dlimited.com

26. (917) 326-7451
rolf.olsen@copernicusmarketing.com
goo.gl/eydHg
Rolf Olsen
Vice President, Director, MarketingAnalytics