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1. AFRICAN POTATO ASSOCATION CONFERENCE 2013
Naivasha, Kenya, June 30 – July 4, 2013
Ex-ante Evaluation of Improved
Potato Varieties for Sub-Saharan
Africa
Ulrich Kleinwechter, Guy Hareau, Merideth Bonierbale,
Manuel Gastelo and Dieudonne Harahagazwe
International Potato Center (CIP)
3. 1. Introduction
• Strong expansion of potato production and consumption in
SSA (Low et al., 2007)
• Multiple and important roles in local food systems
• Increase food availability and aggregate efficiency of
food systems
• Short vegetation cycle and suitability to marginal environment
• Provision of income generation opportunities
• Cash crop and processing
• Grown in regions with high incidence of poverty,
undernutrition and food insecurity and high population
density
4. 1. Introduction
• Steady but slow yield growth in the past, main production
increases from area expansions
• High potential of technological innovations to increase productivity
• Potentially high returns on investment and strong impacts on poverty
and hunger (Anderson et al. 2010)
Technological improvements in potatoes “an underexploited resource”
(Alexandratos, 1997)
• Ongoing breeding efforts by CIP and NARS in the region
• What potential impacts can be expected from future
improvement of potato varieties for SSA?
Ex-ante assessment of potential impacts using an
agricultural sector simulation model
5. 2. Methodology: The IMPACT model
• Integrated modeling framework which combines an economic global
agricultural sector model with a water simulation model
• Food module
• Projections of agricultural production, demand, trade flows and
prices on a regional scale (countries or aggregates)
• Partial-equilibrium model
• 40 agricultural commodities
• 155 regions and 126 water basins, which combine into 281 “food
production units” (FPUs)
• Water module
• Simulation of water availability for agriculture and other uses
• Multi-period model: 2000-2050
7. 2. Methodology: The IMPACT model
• Agricultural production depicted by area and yield
functions:
Yield shifter
Integration of new
technologies via
shifters in yield
functions
8. 3. Scenario
- Description of the technology
• Improved potato varieties for SSA
• Higher yield potential
• Late-blight and virus resistance
• Heat tolerance
• Processing quality
• 30% higher yields
• Nine target countries
• Total investment: 9.8m US$ (4.29m NPV,
2000 constant prices)
• Project duration: 12 years Source: Theisen and Thiele (2008).
EthiopiaUganda
Rwanda
Burundi
DR Congo
Kenya
Tanzania
Mozambique
Malawi
9. 3. Scenario
- Project description and cost
Activity Description Output Duration Total cost
1. Breeding at
CIP
One breeding
cycle, starting
from LBHT
population
Advanced clones with
improved traits
4 years 3.5m US$
2. Breeding and
seed
multiplication at
NARS
Further selection,
seed
multiplication
Improved potato
varieties, potato seeds
for dissemination
4 years 3.5m US$
3. Dissemination Dissemination of
potato seeds,
extension
New varieties adopted
by farmers
4 years 2.1m US$
Total 12 years 9.1m US$
10. 3. Scenario
- Dissemination and adoption
• Release: 2020
• Four tier model of adoption
• Very low: 5% after 10 years (MLW, MOZ)
• Low: 10% (DRC,TZA)
• Middle: 20% (BUR, ETH, KEN, UGA)
• High: 30% (RWA)
• Analysis of three adoption cases
• “High”: as above
• “Medium”: 2/3 of “high”
• “Low”: 1/3 of “high”
0
20
40
60
80
100
%ofcultivatedarea
High adoption
Traditional varieties Improved varieties
0
20
40
60
80
100
%ofcultivatedarea
Low adoption
Traditional varieties Improved varieties
15. 4. Results
- Economic welfare
0.0
10.0
20.0
30.0
40.0
50.0
60.0
70.0
Net welfare changes
Low adoption Medium adoption High adoption
NPV
[mUS$at2000constantprices]
16. 4. Results
- Returns on investment
0
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
0.6
0.7
0.8
IRR
Low adoption Medium adoption High adoption
17. 4. Results
- Global effects
-800
-600
-400
-200
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
∆ Producer surplus ∆ Consumer surplus ∆ Net welfare Net benefits
Welfare and global benefits
Low adoption Medium adoption High adoption
NPV
[mUS$at2000constantprices]
18. 5. Conclusions and outlook
• Positive production impacts in target countries
• Positive net welfare effects and high ROI in target
countries
• Comparable with findings from previous impact
evaluations of improved varieties
• Investment in improved potato varieties justified from
economic point of view
• Global analysis
• Consumers benefit
• Producers lose
• Positive net benefit
19. 5. Conclusions and outlook
• Pivotal role of adoption levels
• Importance of market acceptance and sufficiently good
seed systems for quick dissemination and adoption
• Complementary investments in seed systems
• Showcase application of IMPACT modeling framework
for ex-ante assessment of agricultural technologies
• Advantages
• Global geographic coverage, comprehensive commodity
coverage
• Capture complex market-mediated interactions across
commodities and countries
• Scope for improvement:
• Assumptions on costs, adoption and dissemination
• Combination of IMPACT with biophysical modeling tools
(crop models, pest and disease models)
• Improvement of baseline data (FAO!)
21. References
Alexandratos, N. (1997). World agriculture: towards 2010 : an FAO study.
Chichester, New York, Brisbane: Wiley.
Anderson, P., Barker, I., Best, S., Bonierbale, M., Crissman, C., Hareau, G., &
Leon Velarde, C. (2010). Importance of roots and tubers in the world food
system; digging up the evidence. Unpublished manuscript, Lima, Peru,
International Potato Center (CIP).
Low, J., Barker, I., Bonierbale, M., Crissman, C., Forbes, G., Lemaga, B., &
Priou, S. (2007). Emerging trends and advances in potato research relevant
to defining the way forward for the potato sector in Sub-Saharan Africa.
African Potato Association Conference Proceedings, Vol . 7 (pp. 1-17).
Alexandria, Egypt.
FAO. (2012). FAOSTAT database.
Theisen, K., & Thiele, G. (2008). Implementing CIP’s Vision: Impact targeting.
Lima, Peru.
