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Value Chain Analysis of Bioenergy in
                      Tanzania:
            A Case Study in Tandai Village


Anja Fasse

Institute for Environmental Economics and World Trade (IUW),
University of Hannover, Germany
www.better-is.com
fasse@iuw.uni-hannover.de
09. June 2010, ICRAF Nairobi
Outline

 •       Introduction to Better-Is project
 •       Research issues of IUW related to Better-is
     –       Description of the research area
     –       Extended environmental social accounting matrix
     –       Village equilibrium modeling




09. June 2010, ICRAF Nairobi                                   2
“Strategies to use biofuel value chain potential in Sub-Saharan Africa
                                                  to respond to global change”




                                                        ?

Source: FAOSTAT (2009), based on data from 2007




    09. June 2010, ICRAF Nairobi                                                               3
www.better-is.com



            Biofuel Evaluation for Technological Tanzanian Efficiency using
                          Renewables - Integrated Strategies

           Strategies to use Biofuel Value Chain
         Potential in Sub-Saharan Africa to respond
                       to Global Change
         Enhancing low-productivity Farming in Tanzania and linking to SMEs




09. June 2010, ICRAF Nairobi                                                  4
Objectives Better-iS
   • To identify the potential for linking low-productivity
     farming to small and medium enterprises (SME) to
     enhance livelihoods through biofuel value chains
   • To provide farmers, regional organizations and local
     authorities in sub-Saharan Africa with feasible
     strategies
        – to benefit from biomass production potential
            and
        – to mitigate food insecurity.


  09. June 2010, ICRAF Nairobi                                5
Project Consortium
               Leibniz Centre for Agricultural Landscape Research e.V.


               World Agroforestry Centre


               The International Food Policy Research Institute


               Association for Strengthening Agricultural Research in Africa


               Wuppertal Institute for Climate, Environment and Energy



               Environmental Economics and World Trade


               University of Agriculture, Sokoine (now involved)

         09. June 2010, ICRAF Nairobi                                          6
Project Design
  Partners                          Modeling Statistics Appraisal Expertise
                                             global energy and agricultural modeling
 The International Food
 Policy Research Institute
                                                 Biomass consumption patterns
 Wuppertal Institute for Climate,
 Environment and Energy
                                                Coordination & value chain analysis
  Leibniz Centre for Agricultural
  Landscape Research e.V.

                                             Village modeling & certification appraisal
 Environmental Economics
 and World Trade
                                                            Stakeholder processes
  Association for Strengthening
  Agricultural Research in Africa
                                                           Stakeholder processes
 World Agroforestry Centre


09. June 2010, ICRAF Nairobi                                                              7
Survey Area:
                               Tandai Village

                               (Kinole Ward,
                                 Morogoro
                                  District)




09. June 2010, ICRAF Nairobi             8
                                             8
Survey Area: Tandai Village
•   Location within the
     – Uluguru Nature Forest Reserve (UNR)
     – Community forest


•   Tandai: 1040 households including 4211 individuals
•   Sample size 30% (stratified random sampling): 314 households


•   Wood value chain (firewood, charcoal, timber..)
•   Jatropha as a host plant for spices e.g. black pepper, vanilla, also passion fruit.



    09. June 2010, ICRAF Nairobi                                                          9
Vanilla on Jatropha




09. June 2010, ICRAF Nairobi                         10
09. June 2010, ICRAF Nairobi   Black Pepper on Jatropha   11
What has been done so far:
• Survey 314 households on agricultural production patterns and
  interlinkages between households
• Energy consumption and production
• Focus on important value chains of cash crops (banana, pineapple,
  spices) and agroforestry.
• GPS coordinates including altitude of 80% of the households
• Timepreferences of the farmer
• Perception of soil erosion and yield losses




09. June 2010, ICRAF Nairobi                                          12
Value chain analysis: Applied methods:

• Development of a social accounting matrix (SAM) extended by
  natural resource accounts for soil on village level
   – Impact assessment via multiplier analysis
• Scenario analysis supported by an economy-wide planning
  model developed for the village economy
   – Feasibility study comprising different biofuel value chains
• Consumer surveys in selected European countries
   – Exploring WTP for certified biofuels (and ecosystem services) from Sub-
     Saharan Africa

  09. June 2010, ICRAF Nairobi                                          13
Village Social Accounting Matrix (SAM)

                            Factor                              Domestic Private Savings
               Factor       Markets             Wages
               Costs                               &                       Gov. Savings
                                                Rents
                                                             Taxes
                    Demand for
          Producers Intermediate                Households       Government         Saving/INV
                       Inputs
                                                            Transfers
                                                        Private         Government         Investment
                                Product                 Consumption     Expenditure        Demand
                Sales           Markets
                Revenues                                  Demand for Final Goods
                                       Imports
            Exports                                                                Foreign Savings
                                     Rest of the Country
                                         and World
         Source: IFPRI Training Material 2003

 09. June 2010, ICRAF Nairobi                                                                           14
09. June 2010, ICRAF Nairobi   15
Mathematical Planning Model
                    Commercial Resource Use Activities
Logistic




                                                                           Management System
                                                                           Management System
growth
model                        Forest          Land         Water

Linear Activity
Model &            Farm I        Farm II   Village Farm III      Farm IV
Additive Utility
                                    -Production
                                    -Forest & Water Extraction
                                    -Storage
                   Purchases        -Consumption                   Sales
                                    -Transport
                                    -Processing
endogenous
prices
                         Village Factor and Product Market
exogenous
prices                   Trade with the neighboring region
  09. June 2010, ICRAF Nairobi      (Etti Winter, 2008)                                        16
Comparison Firewood and
   Jatropha Collection and Processing
 Households          Distance to        Hours/      Wood (man           Jatropha
 Type (fam) ha       forest in km        Day        days/month)     (man days/month)
 H1 (4.1) 0.52             1               3             7.2              8.6 (7.1)

 H2 (6.1) 1.17            2.5             4.5           16.1              12.8 (10,5)

 H3 (4.5) 1.38            2.5             4.5            11.7             9.3 (7,6)

 H4 (5.1) 1.89             5               7              21              10.7 (8,9)
2kg wood per hh member per day*365=730 kg wood equivalent to 55 l plant oil per
person & year. 15kg wood/Trip
Collection: 3kg Seed/h Extraction: 20% (30%)         Processing 1,5h/ l
09. June 2010, ICRAF Nairobi        Winter, E. and Fasse, A. 2009                       17
H1                 Min Labor     Max profit   Max Utility   Min Labor    Max Profit   Max Utility
                                                            No grazing   No grazing   No grazing


Subsistence [€]       665           665          665

Surplus [€]            0            151          127

Labor [h]             527           700          673

Leisure [h]           173            0            27

Z (Shadow Wage)                                  0,86

Wood [kg]            11906        17035         16242         13807        16294        16749

Labor [month]     1,2,3,4,7,12      All        All but 3

Land [month]          6,7,8         6,8          6,8

Forest Income %        65           76            70

% Labor                                                        +14           0            +2

% Income                                                        0            -8          -18



09. June 2010, ICRAF Nairobi         Winter, E. and Fasse, A. 2009                         18
Max Utility, No Forest Use, Jatropha Production
         Household                H1         H2        H3         H4

         Z (Shadow Wage)          0.52      0.69      0.68       0.72

         Surplus [€]              0.6       412        401       6196

         Labor [h]                699       1424       687       1220

         Leisure [h]               1         54        53        0.4

         Utility                   1         22        21        2500

         Own Land [ha]            0.53      1.17      1.38       1.89

         Community Land [ha]      0.44                           8.12

         Sold Labor [%]         Yes: 0.53 Yes: 0.84 Yes: 0.67   No: 1.8
Winter, E. and Fasse, A. 2009                                             19
How might Certification
                             Schemes be Designed ?
                           1. Standard → principles and criteria to
                              guarantee certain characteristics, certain
                              methods etc
                           2. Principles → guidelines describing how
                              to meet a standard
                           3. Criteria → requirements describing how
                              to achieve the principles
                           4. Indicators → concrete measures to
                              verify that principles and criteria are met
                               Source Segerstedt 2009
09. June 2010, ICRAF Nairobi
• How could Co-Benefits between Biofuel production, Carbon
  savings and other ecosystem services be handled and
  what kind of market regulation is necessary?
• How could persistent funding and provisioning of ecosystem
  services be secured ?
• What certification scheme is best ?
• What are the preferences of consumers and suppliers?




09. June 2010, ICRAF Nairobi                              21
Thank you for your attention!!!   22

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Fasse icraf 2010

  • 1. Value Chain Analysis of Bioenergy in Tanzania: A Case Study in Tandai Village Anja Fasse Institute for Environmental Economics and World Trade (IUW), University of Hannover, Germany www.better-is.com fasse@iuw.uni-hannover.de 09. June 2010, ICRAF Nairobi
  • 2. Outline • Introduction to Better-Is project • Research issues of IUW related to Better-is – Description of the research area – Extended environmental social accounting matrix – Village equilibrium modeling 09. June 2010, ICRAF Nairobi 2
  • 3. “Strategies to use biofuel value chain potential in Sub-Saharan Africa to respond to global change” ? Source: FAOSTAT (2009), based on data from 2007 09. June 2010, ICRAF Nairobi 3
  • 4. www.better-is.com Biofuel Evaluation for Technological Tanzanian Efficiency using Renewables - Integrated Strategies Strategies to use Biofuel Value Chain Potential in Sub-Saharan Africa to respond to Global Change Enhancing low-productivity Farming in Tanzania and linking to SMEs 09. June 2010, ICRAF Nairobi 4
  • 5. Objectives Better-iS • To identify the potential for linking low-productivity farming to small and medium enterprises (SME) to enhance livelihoods through biofuel value chains • To provide farmers, regional organizations and local authorities in sub-Saharan Africa with feasible strategies – to benefit from biomass production potential and – to mitigate food insecurity. 09. June 2010, ICRAF Nairobi 5
  • 6. Project Consortium Leibniz Centre for Agricultural Landscape Research e.V. World Agroforestry Centre The International Food Policy Research Institute Association for Strengthening Agricultural Research in Africa Wuppertal Institute for Climate, Environment and Energy Environmental Economics and World Trade University of Agriculture, Sokoine (now involved) 09. June 2010, ICRAF Nairobi 6
  • 7. Project Design Partners Modeling Statistics Appraisal Expertise global energy and agricultural modeling The International Food Policy Research Institute Biomass consumption patterns Wuppertal Institute for Climate, Environment and Energy Coordination & value chain analysis Leibniz Centre for Agricultural Landscape Research e.V. Village modeling & certification appraisal Environmental Economics and World Trade Stakeholder processes Association for Strengthening Agricultural Research in Africa Stakeholder processes World Agroforestry Centre 09. June 2010, ICRAF Nairobi 7
  • 8. Survey Area: Tandai Village (Kinole Ward, Morogoro District) 09. June 2010, ICRAF Nairobi 8 8
  • 9. Survey Area: Tandai Village • Location within the – Uluguru Nature Forest Reserve (UNR) – Community forest • Tandai: 1040 households including 4211 individuals • Sample size 30% (stratified random sampling): 314 households • Wood value chain (firewood, charcoal, timber..) • Jatropha as a host plant for spices e.g. black pepper, vanilla, also passion fruit. 09. June 2010, ICRAF Nairobi 9
  • 10. Vanilla on Jatropha 09. June 2010, ICRAF Nairobi 10
  • 11. 09. June 2010, ICRAF Nairobi Black Pepper on Jatropha 11
  • 12. What has been done so far: • Survey 314 households on agricultural production patterns and interlinkages between households • Energy consumption and production • Focus on important value chains of cash crops (banana, pineapple, spices) and agroforestry. • GPS coordinates including altitude of 80% of the households • Timepreferences of the farmer • Perception of soil erosion and yield losses 09. June 2010, ICRAF Nairobi 12
  • 13. Value chain analysis: Applied methods: • Development of a social accounting matrix (SAM) extended by natural resource accounts for soil on village level – Impact assessment via multiplier analysis • Scenario analysis supported by an economy-wide planning model developed for the village economy – Feasibility study comprising different biofuel value chains • Consumer surveys in selected European countries – Exploring WTP for certified biofuels (and ecosystem services) from Sub- Saharan Africa 09. June 2010, ICRAF Nairobi 13
  • 14. Village Social Accounting Matrix (SAM) Factor Domestic Private Savings Factor Markets Wages Costs & Gov. Savings Rents Taxes Demand for Producers Intermediate Households Government Saving/INV Inputs Transfers Private Government Investment Product Consumption Expenditure Demand Sales Markets Revenues Demand for Final Goods Imports Exports Foreign Savings Rest of the Country and World Source: IFPRI Training Material 2003 09. June 2010, ICRAF Nairobi 14
  • 15. 09. June 2010, ICRAF Nairobi 15
  • 16. Mathematical Planning Model Commercial Resource Use Activities Logistic Management System Management System growth model Forest Land Water Linear Activity Model & Farm I Farm II Village Farm III Farm IV Additive Utility -Production -Forest & Water Extraction -Storage Purchases -Consumption Sales -Transport -Processing endogenous prices Village Factor and Product Market exogenous prices Trade with the neighboring region 09. June 2010, ICRAF Nairobi (Etti Winter, 2008) 16
  • 17. Comparison Firewood and Jatropha Collection and Processing Households Distance to Hours/ Wood (man Jatropha Type (fam) ha forest in km Day days/month) (man days/month) H1 (4.1) 0.52 1 3 7.2 8.6 (7.1) H2 (6.1) 1.17 2.5 4.5 16.1 12.8 (10,5) H3 (4.5) 1.38 2.5 4.5 11.7 9.3 (7,6) H4 (5.1) 1.89 5 7 21 10.7 (8,9) 2kg wood per hh member per day*365=730 kg wood equivalent to 55 l plant oil per person & year. 15kg wood/Trip Collection: 3kg Seed/h Extraction: 20% (30%) Processing 1,5h/ l 09. June 2010, ICRAF Nairobi Winter, E. and Fasse, A. 2009 17
  • 18. H1 Min Labor Max profit Max Utility Min Labor Max Profit Max Utility No grazing No grazing No grazing Subsistence [€] 665 665 665 Surplus [€] 0 151 127 Labor [h] 527 700 673 Leisure [h] 173 0 27 Z (Shadow Wage) 0,86 Wood [kg] 11906 17035 16242 13807 16294 16749 Labor [month] 1,2,3,4,7,12 All All but 3 Land [month] 6,7,8 6,8 6,8 Forest Income % 65 76 70 % Labor +14 0 +2 % Income 0 -8 -18 09. June 2010, ICRAF Nairobi Winter, E. and Fasse, A. 2009 18
  • 19. Max Utility, No Forest Use, Jatropha Production Household H1 H2 H3 H4 Z (Shadow Wage) 0.52 0.69 0.68 0.72 Surplus [€] 0.6 412 401 6196 Labor [h] 699 1424 687 1220 Leisure [h] 1 54 53 0.4 Utility 1 22 21 2500 Own Land [ha] 0.53 1.17 1.38 1.89 Community Land [ha] 0.44 8.12 Sold Labor [%] Yes: 0.53 Yes: 0.84 Yes: 0.67 No: 1.8 Winter, E. and Fasse, A. 2009 19
  • 20. How might Certification Schemes be Designed ? 1. Standard → principles and criteria to guarantee certain characteristics, certain methods etc 2. Principles → guidelines describing how to meet a standard 3. Criteria → requirements describing how to achieve the principles 4. Indicators → concrete measures to verify that principles and criteria are met Source Segerstedt 2009 09. June 2010, ICRAF Nairobi
  • 21. • How could Co-Benefits between Biofuel production, Carbon savings and other ecosystem services be handled and what kind of market regulation is necessary? • How could persistent funding and provisioning of ecosystem services be secured ? • What certification scheme is best ? • What are the preferences of consumers and suppliers? 09. June 2010, ICRAF Nairobi 21
  • 22. Thank you for your attention!!! 22