This document discusses options for what an ex-Director General of the World Agroforestry Centre (ICRAF) could do after retiring, and outlines Pedro Sanchez's vision for achieving a second African Green Revolution. The 3 main options are: 1) retire and fish, 2) shift to rural development work, or 3) focus on strategic tropical soils research. The document then outlines components needed for a successful African Green Revolution, including improved soils, water, seeds, nutrition, markets, policies, and politics. Case studies from countries achieving yield increases are presented, along with a vision for scaling up efforts through government leadership, organic inputs, access to credit, private sector partnerships, closing yield gaps, improved extension services, and reducing

1. What an ex –ICRAF DG does—
Rural Development or Research?
Pedro A. Sanchez
The Earth Institute at Columbia University
24 February 2012

2. Options
 Retire and go fishing
 Shift from CG-type research to
development
 Shift to more strategic tropical soils
research

3. SS Africa 1 16
Latin America 3 48
South & East Asia 3 48
China 5 80
N. America, 10 160

4. 21st Century African Green Revolution

5. Components Nutrition Environment
Markets
Agriculture
Policies
Politics
Soils
Water
Seeds

6. AfGR 1.0 Real Impact since 2005
 15-20 million rural Africans are out of hunger
who weren't in 2005 (yields from 1 to 2-3
tons/ha)
 But, it’s <10% of currently rural hungry, 240 m
in Africa
 Tipping point (25%?) not reached
 Input subsidies work and are the main tool, in
conjunction with bank credit systems.
 Agrodealers , crop diversification, crop
insurance
 Cellphone revolution
 Africa is really taking off

7. Malawi—The First African Green Revolution
Smart subsidies

8. Harvest Million Food Yield Officially
Year tons requireme (tons/ha)
nt
2005 1.3 - 43% 0.8 drought
2006 2.4 + 18% 1.5 good
2007 3.3 + 57% 2.7 good
2008 2.8 +32% 1.6 good
2009 3.6 +58% 2.2 good
2010 2.9 +33% 1.9 drought
2011 3.3 +56% 2.2 drought
Malawi: Low Prices
2007:
Denning et al, 2009 Plos Biology, Subsidy cost: $70 million
Ministry of Agriculture data for 2008-2011 Benefit: $688 million

10. Community leads / Science-based

11. 5 tons/ha, Sauri, Kenya 2005

12. Pampaida, Nigeria

13. Harvest Maize Upland Soybeans Cowpea
Year (tons/ha) rice (tons/ha)
(tons/ha) (tons/ha)
2005* 0.8 1.0 0.6 0.5
2006 3.5 - - -
2007 3.7 2.0 1.6 1.0
2008 3.7 2.1 1.6 1.0
2009 4.1 2.0 1.6 1.1
2010 4.3 2.4 1.6 1.1
Pampaida, Kaduna State, Nigeria
Source: MVP Office, Zaria

14. The real yield gap
Sauri
10
8
6
4
2
0
2005 2006 2007 2008
Cropping season

15. Working Schools: Pampaida
2006 2007

16. Road
2006 2007

17. Businesswoman-Sauri

18. From Agrovets to Agrodealers

20. Stunting of Children under 2 Years
Stunting Baselin Year 3
Prevalence: e n=720
n=376
Pampaida, Nigeria 78% 42%
Tiby, Mali 63% 38%
Koraro, Ethiopia 62% 36%
Sauri, Kenya 62% 38%
Mwandama, Malawi 55% 37%
Ruhiira, Uganda 49% 38%
Mbola, Tanzania 42% 15%
Potou, Senegal 30% 31%
Bonsaaso, Ghana 25% 20%
Overall 52% 32%
R. Remans et al. American Journal of Clinical Nutrition 2011)

21. African Green Revolution 2.0
 Scaling–up. African governments to lead
 Bring in organic inputs
 Banks to lend to the rural poor that lack
collateral
 Work closely together with the private sector
 Close the real yield gap; increase efficiency
 21st Century extension
 Reduce pre and post harvest losses

25. Increase efficiency
 SSA going from 1 to 3 tons/ha in 10 years
 Increase penetration of high yielding seeds to 70%.
Support seed companies
 Incorporate organic inputs (esp. agroforestry) in
fertilizer-based smallholder farming systems
 Increase nitrogen use efficiency (NUE) from 10-15
kg maize/kg fertilizer N to 30
 Increase rainfed water use efficiency (WUE) from 2
to 10kg/mm ET
 Increase irrigation use efficiency from 48 to 75+%
of water applied to penetrate the soil
 Targeting recommendations

26. Financing N-fixing Inputs. How?
Credits
Subsidies
Rewards

27. Increased yields = Increased water use efficiency
1 ton/ha 3 tons/ha
87% E

28. Extension

29. Learn from the top farmers

30. Targeting Recommendations: Digital Soil
Map 100 by 100 m
0 - 5 cm
5 – 15 cm
15 – 30 cm
30 – 60 cm
60-100 cm
100-200 cm
Effective depth
Sanchez et al Science, 385: 680-681, 2009

31. Sentinel Site a spatially stratified,
hierarchical, randomized
sampling framework
Sentinel Site
16 Clusters
10 Plots
4 Sub-plots
Randomization to minimize local biases that might arise from convenience sampling

32. Legacy Data: Soil Management Experiments
C Sequestration
Agroforestry
Phosphorus
Methane

34. Lab in a box SMS
National Digital Soils Central Mobile lab

35. Training a new generation of
African soil scientists

36. Combine Appropriate Interventions, but
find out where specific interventions don’t
work, or take too much time
 By all means combine mineral fertilizers
with organic inputs
 Conservation agriculture (herbicides +
power)
 Evergreen agriculture– apply genomic
science?
 Biochar ?
 What is your yield target?
 What are your environmental targets?

37. The bottom line