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Adj Exp Smoothing

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ahmad bassiouny
ahmad bassiouny

Adj Exp Smoothing

EducaciónEmpresarialesEconomía y finanzas
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Adjusted Exponential Smoothing Paul Mendenhall BusM 361 Professor Foster
Outline ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Definition ,[object Object],[object Object]
Trends ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Smoothing and Alpha ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Why the Model is Used ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Equation ,[object Object],[object Object]
Equation Explained ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Equation Illustrated ,[object Object]
Equation Illustrated cont… Table 1 * α value is 0.2 ** β value is 0.7 - - - 44 3 - - - 57 2 - - 50 54 1 Adjusted Forecast AF t Trend T t Unadjusted Forecast F t Demand Period
Step 1 ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],- - 50 54 1 Adjusted Forecast AF t Trend T t Unadjusted Forecast F t Demand Period
Step 2 ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],- - 50.8 57 2 - - 50 54 1 Adjusted Forecast AF t Trend T t Unadjusted Forecast F t Demand Period
Step 3 ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],- 0.56 50.8 57 2 - 0 50 54 1 Adjusted Forecast AF t Trend T t Unadjusted Forecast F t Demand Period
Step 4 ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],51.36 0.56 50.8 57 2 - 0 50 54 1 Adjusted Forecast AF t Trend T t Unadjusted Forecast F t Demand Period
Complete the table ,[object Object],- - - 44 3 51.36 0.56 50.8 57 2 50 0 50 54 1 Adjusted Forecast AF t Trend T t Unadjusted Forecast F t Demand Period
Steps 1-4 Completed ,[object Object],[object Object],53.08 1.036 52.04 44 3 51.36 0.56 50.8 57 2 50 0 50 54 1 Adjusted Forecast AF t Trend T t Unadjusted Forecast F t Demand Period
Real World Example ,[object Object]
Real World Ex. Continued ,[object Object]
Real World Ex. Continued ,[object Object],1213 2004 1306 2003 1122 2002 1189 2001 1376 2000 Demand Year
Practice Problem Answer 11 1232 1213 2004 1181 -20 1200 1306 2003 1235 1 1234 1122 2002 1284 32 1253 1189 2001 1200 0 1200 1376 2000 Adjusted Forecast AFt Trend Tt Unadjusted Forecast F t Demand Year
Summary ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Additional Readings ,[object Object],[object Object]

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Adj Exp Smoothing

  • 1. Adjusted Exponential Smoothing Paul Mendenhall BusM 361 Professor Foster
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  • 10. Equation Illustrated cont… Table 1 * α value is 0.2 ** β value is 0.7 - - - 44 3 - - - 57 2 - - 50 54 1 Adjusted Forecast AF t Trend T t Unadjusted Forecast F t Demand Period
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  • 20. Practice Problem Answer 11 1232 1213 2004 1181 -20 1200 1306 2003 1235 1 1234 1122 2002 1284 32 1253 1189 2001 1200 0 1200 1376 2000 Adjusted Forecast AFt Trend Tt Unadjusted Forecast F t Demand Year
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  • 22.