Fraser institute presents to the Meet Alaska Conference. January 21, 2011

1. Global Petroleum Survey 2010
ALLIANCE MEET ALASKA
January, 2011
Fred McMahon
Vice President Research, International
The Fraser Institute

2. Project Objectives Are To:
• Rank jurisdictions according to barriers to upstream
investment.
• Identify issues that jurisdictions need to address in
order to attract more greater shares of investment.
• Identify year-to-year changes to jurisdictions’
apparent relative attractiveness for upstream
investment. (Valuable information for both business
planners and policy makers)

3. The Survey Questions

4. Factors Addressed by Questions (1)
1. Fiscal Terms
2. Taxation Regime
3. Environmental Uncertainty
4. Regulatory Uncertainty
5. Cost of Regulatory
Compliance
6. Protected Areas
7. Socio-economic Agreements
8. Trade Barriers

5. Factors Addressed by Questions (2)
9. Labour Regulations and Employment
Agreements
10. Quality of infrastructure
11. Geological Database
12. Labor Availability
13. Disputed Land Claims
14. Political Stability
15. Security
16. Regulatory Duplication and Inconsistencies
17. Legal system

6. Possible Responses to Each Question:
1. Encourages investment
2. Is not a deterrent to investment
3. Is a mild deterrent to investment
4. Is a strong deterrent to investment
5. Would not invest due to this criterion

7. • Scoring Methodology

8. Composite Indices
(Used to Facilitate Comparison)
• All-Inclusive Composite Index
- Based on average of responses to all 17 questions
• Commercial Environment Index
- Fiscal terms, taxation, trade barriers, quality of infrastructure,
& labor availability
• Regulatory Climate Index
- Based on average of responses to the 6 regulatory questions
• Geopolitical Risk Index
- From “Political Stability” and “Security” questions

9. 2010 Participation
• 645 questionnaires received; up from 577 in 2009
• Over 364 companies represented.
• Participating upstream petroleum companies
responsible for more than half of global 2009 E&P
expenditures according to International Energy Agency
estimates.
• 133 jurisdictions ranked (vs. 143 in 2009, 81 in 2008, 54
in 2007).

10. Position Held by Respondent
Company President,
Other, 7.4% 18.8%
Consultant, 32.2%
Vice President,
12.1%
Manager, 29.5%

11. The Global Picture

12. The Global Results Map

13. Focus on Alaska

15. U
S
-S
ou
th
D
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
U ako
S ta
-
U Te
S x
U - I as
S lli
U - W no
S
- M yo is
is mi
si ng
U ss
S U U ipp
O S S- i
ff
Mild deterrent to investment
sh -O U
or k ta
e— US lah h
G - A om
ul
f o la b a
f M am
ex a
U ic o
U S
S
-A -O
U h
S rka io
-L n
o sa
U U uis s
S S i
- N - K an a
o r an
t s
U h D as
S ak
-
U M ot
U S - on a
S t
Strong deterrent to investment
- W Mic ana
U e h
U S st V iga
S - n
O Ne irg
ff w in
sh i
or Me a
Offshore AL
e— x i
U c
U S Ala o
S -C s
- P o ka
en lor
All-Inclusive Composite Index: US
n a
U sy d o
S
U - K lva
S
O en n ia
ff U tu
c
Alaska
sh S
o r - A ky
e — la
U s
S Atl ka
- C an
a tic
U lifo
U S rn
S US - F ia
O lo
ff - N rid
sh e
or w Y a
e— o
Pa rk
ci
fic
Would not pursue investment due to this factor

16. All inclusive:
Canadian Comparaison
100
90
Alaska
80
AL Offshore
70
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
CA
CA
CA
CA
AL
CA
CA
CA
CA
CA
AL
CA
O
US
-M
-O
-Y
-B
-Q
-S
-N
-N
-A
-N
ffs
uk
rit
as
-2
nt
ue
ew
ov
lb
or
an
ho
01
er
ar
is
th
on
ka
be
a
it o
fo
h
re
ta
io
0
w
Sc
tc
un
c
ba
Co
-
es
20
he
ot
dl
tT
lu
10
ia
w
an
m
an
er
d
bi
r it
a
or
ie
s
Mild deterrent to investment Strong deterrent to investment
Would not pursue investment due to this factor

17. All-Inclusive Composite Index: 2010 and 2009
50
40
30
20
10
0
AL 2010 AL 2009 Offshore-2010 Offshore-2009
Mild deterrent to investment Strong deterrent to investment Would not pursue investment due to this factor

18. • Alaska
Focus on Alaska
• US—Alaska (Offshore • Norway—North Sea
AL) (Norway-NS)
• South Australia • Norway
• Western Australia • United Kingdom—North
• Australia Offshore Sea (UK-NS)
• Indonesia • Russia
• Alberta
• DRC
• BC
• Newfoundland • Iraq
• Yukon • UAE
• NWT • Venezuela
• Texas • Brazil
• US— Atlantic
• US—Pacific
• US—Gulf of Mexico

19. Would not invest
a
el
zu
ne
Ve i a
s
us
R
q ia fic
Ir a nes ci
do Pa
In e—
or
RC h
D ff s
O
S
All-Inclusive Composite Index
U l
Strong deterrent to investment
zi
Alaska
ra
B ic
T an t
W l
N At
—
S
U ka
s
la
A rta AL
e
lb r e—
A
ho
f fs
O
C d
B ay l an
w d
or n
N fou
S
ew -N
Offshore AL
N ay
w
or
N re
AE n ho
U ff s
ko O
a- ia
Mild deterrent to investment
Yu rali al
t tr
us us
A NS n A alia ico
- er t r ex
K t
U es Aus f M
W o
U- th lf
A ou Gu
S —
U- e
A hor
f fs
O s
xa
Te
100
90
80
70
60
50
40
30
20
10
0

20. Commercial Environment Index
100
90
Alaska
80
Offshore AL
70
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
Te US AU Au AU BC Of Yu UK Ne A No UA No NW Al O Br O DR In Ira Ru Ve
f f d
xa
s — -So str -W fs k
ho on - N wfo lbe r rw E rw T as k fsh azi l fsh C on q ss n e
G al e S un ta ay ay a or or es ia zu
ul uth ia- ste re
— dl -N e— e— ia el
fo A O a
f M us ffs rn A AL an S At Pa
d la ci
ex tra ho us nt fi c
ic lia re tra ic
o l ia
Mild deterrent to investment Strong deterrent to investment Would not invest

21. a
el
zu
ne
V e ia fic
ss ci
Ru Pa
q re —
Would not invest
Ira ho
Regulatory Climate Index
f f s ia
O es
n
do
In
Offshore AL
C
DR i l AL
az e—
Br r ho t ic
ffs an
O ka Atl
as e —
A l hor
Strong deterrent to investment
ffs
Alaska
O
T
NW ay
rw d
N o rta lan
be nd
A l fo u S
w -N
N e ay
rw
No
BC re
E ho
UA S ffs
-N O a-
U K r al i lia ic o
t r a ex
Mild deterrent to investment
st
A u n A us f M
k o th l f o l ia
Y u o u Gu t r a
-S e — u s
A U hor rn A
ffs te
O es
-W
AU s
xa
Te
100
90
80
70
60
50
40
30
20
10
0

22. a
el
zu
Would not invest
ne
Ve
q
Ira
C
R
D
a
si
Geopolitical Risk Index
us ia
R s
ne
do
In
l
zi
ra fic
B ci
ta
er Pa
lb e—
A r
ho
ffs
Strong deterrent to investm ent
O
T
W
N
E
A
U
d
an
C dl
B un
fo
ew e o
Offshore AL Alaska
N or xic
a sh e
sk ff M
la -O of
A ia f
al ul
tr G
us e—
A r
h o AL
ffs —
O re
ho
ffs
O
S
-N
K
U
s S
xa
-N
Mild deterrent to investm ent
Te
ay ia
or
w al
tr
N
ay us
w A
a
or tern ali
N tr
es us
-W A ic
U th nt
A
ou tla
-S A
U —
A re
ho
ffs
O
n
ko
Yu
100
90
80
70
60
50
40
30
20
10
0

23. Individual questions

24. a
el
zu
ne
Ve a
si ic
us nt
R la
At
Would not invest
q — ifi c
Ira ore ac
h P
ffs —
O ore
h
ffs ia
O es
n
do
In
E
A a
U t
er
Fiscal Terms
lb d
A
ay an
w dl
or n
Strong deterrent to investment
N fou
ew
N
C
R
D l
zi NS
ra -
B ay
w
or
Offshore AL
N S
-N
K .
U L
T —A
W
N ore
h
ffs
O a o
sk ic
A
la ex
n fM
ko fo
Yu ul
G re
C e— o
B o r ffsh al ia
Mild deterrent to investment
h tr
ffs -O s
Alaska
O al ia Au
tr rn
us te
A es ia
-W al
U tr
A s us
A
xa th
Te ou
-S
U
A
100
90
80
70
60
50
40
30
20
10
0

25. a
Would not invest
el
zu
ne
Ve
a
si
s
Ru
q
Ira sia
ne
do c
In ifi
il ac
a z —P
Br re
ho S
ff s - N
O
ay
rw
No y
Strong deterrent to investment
a
rw
No
ka
Taxation
Alaska
as a tic
Al
Se tlan
rth A
So re—
ho
ff s
O a
rt
be
Al d
an
E dl o
UA un ic
fo ex
w fM
Ne fo
ul
C —G
DR re
ho A L
Offshore AL
ff s e—
O r
ho
ff s re
O ho
T ff s
-O
NW
Mild deterrent to investment
lia
ra lia
st ra
Au st
Au
rn lia
BC te ra
e s ust
-W A
AU uth
o
-S
AU
s
xa
Te
k on
Yu
100
90
80
70
60
50
40
30
20
10
0

26. fi c
ci
Pa
—
re L
Would not invest
ho — A
f fs e
O hor
Environmental Regulations
ff s
O ia t ic
Offshore AL
ss ela l an
R u zu At
ne e—
V e hor
ff s
O ay
rw
N o ka NS
as -
A l ay
rw
Strong deterrent to investment
No
Alaska
BC il
az
Br
q
Ir a r t a
be
Al S re
- N ia s h o o
UK s f ne O f ic
d o ia- ex
In r a l M
of
st lf
Au G u li a
T e — tra
s
N W hor A u
ff s th l ia
O ou tr a
-S us
A U on rn A
Mild deterrent to investment
k te d
Y u e s lan
-W nd
A U fou
w
Ne
C
DR
E
UA s
xa
Te
100
90
80
70
60
50
40
30
20
10
0

27. a
el
zu
ne
Ve
Would not invest
a
si fic
us ci
R Pa
q —
Ir a or e
h
f fs
O
ic
RC nt
Regulatory Uncertainty
D ta tla
e r —A
lb
A or e
h
ffs
O l
zi
Offshore AL
ra
B nd
Strong deterrent to investment
T la
W nd
N ou AL
f
ew e—
N or
h
f fs
O a
sk
Alaska
la
A ay
w
or
N S
N
AE -
U ay o
w ic
or ex
N
fM
C fo
B S ul
N G
K- r e—
U
ho re
ffs ho
O n ff s lia
Mild deterrent to investment
ko -O t ra
Yu alia us
tr A
us ut
h ia
A al
So tr
U- us
A s A
n
xa t e r
Te es
W
U-
A
100
90
80
70
60
50
40
30
20
10
0

28. a
el
zu
ne
Ve a
si fi c
us ci
Would not invest
R
Pa
q —
Ira ore
h
ffs
Cost of Regulatory Compliance
O
T a
W i
N es
n
do
In
C
B ay
w NS
Strong deterrent to investment
or -
N ay
w
or
N a L
Alaska
s k —A
la
A ore nd
h a
ffs dl
O oun
f
ew
N ta
er
lb
A l
zi ic
nt
Offshore AL
ra la
B S
At
-N —
K re
U
ho re
ffs ho
Mild deterrent to investment
O ffs
C O
R a-
D al i o
tr ic
us ex
A n fM
ko fo
Yu ul
G alia
E
A re — s tr l ia
U
ho Au stra
ffs h
O out Au
-S te rn
U
A es
-W
U
A s
xa
Te
100
90
80
70
60
50
40
30
20
10
0

29. fi c
ci
Pa
—
re L c
ho A nti
ffs e — l a
O or At
h
ffs e —
O or
wilderness or parks, marine life preserves, or archeological sites.
h
ffs
Offshore AL
O ka
s
la
A ia Would not invest
s
us
R ay
w la
or
Uncertainty concerning what areas will be protected as
N zu e
ne
Ve
C
B e
T or
sh
Strong deterrent to investment
W
N ta ff
er O
lb ia- al
ia
A al tr
tr
Alaska
us us
A n A
n
k o te r
Yu es S
-W - N
U
A ay
w ia
or
N nes
do
In l ia ic o
zi al
ra tr ex
B us M
A of
Mild deterrent to investment
q th l f
Ira ou G
u
-S e —
U d
A or lan
h
ffs nd
O ou
f
ew
N S
-N
K
U
E
A
U s
xa
Te
C
R
D
100
90
80
70
60
50
40
30
20
10
0