Presentation from Laura Tolkoff of SPUR, presented on August 31, 2022 on Transit Megaprojects: What goes wrong and how to fix it.

1. Transit Megaprojects: What Goes
Wrong and How to Fix It
August 31, 2022

2. ● Welcome
● Purpose
● Introductions
● Megaproject Challenges and Solutions
○ Karen Trapenberg-Frick, UC Berkeley
○ Laura Tolkoff, SPUR
● Discussion
● Preview
Today

3. 1. Share research and information
about common challenges that
megaprojects face.
2. Grow understanding of potential
portfolio-scale solutions to these
challenges.
3. Raise awareness about MTC’s
upcoming Major Project
Advancement Policy, a regional
effort to reduce megaproject risks
4. Raise awareness about regional rail
and network management
initiatives to strengthen agency
capabilities
Purpose of Series
Meeting 1:
Common
Challenges/
Solutions
Meeting 2:
Major Project
Advancement
Policy (likely
end of Oct)

4. MORE FOR LESS
How to plan and deliver the Bay Area’s next generation of
transit projects more quickly and cost-effectively
https://www.spur.org//more-less

5. It regularly takes decades to fund
and build a single project.

6. Our costs far exceed comparable
projects in other countries.

7. We regularly underestimate project
costs.

8. $389 BN
Cost of state-of-good repair, operations,
and maintenance over 30 years
$100 BN
“Megaprojects”
“For rail projects, an average cost
overrun of 44.7 percent combines
with an average demand shortfall of
51.4 percent.”
- Bent Flyvbjerg, 2016
Nearly half of the Bay Area’s
GDP (2019) and $100 BN+
more than we can afford.

9. Why?
● Project list exceeds available resources.
● When projects cost too much and take too long,
we get less of them.
● Smaller - but no less important - projects can get
crowded out.
● Higher capital costs can sometimes result in
service cuts.
● Public trust is essential to transit’s business
model.

10. “Brown Wednesday”, September 9, 2020
A climate emergency.

11. Too little service to give people real
mobility and access.

12. We need to stop diving alone.

13. Key Challenges
1. Fragmented governance and funding gets in the way of
defining shared vision for both the transit network and individual
projects.
2. Poor cost estimation skews project selection and has
cascading impacts through the life of a project.
3. Transit agencies deliver major projects just once in a
generation, making them vulnerable to first timer mistakes.
4. Lack of flexibility and experience in choosing and managing
procurement and project delivery models.
5. CEQA exposes projects to litigation risk that can degrade
and delay projects when used inappropriately.

14. Big Idea #1: Improve regional
transportation planning so that the
projects that offer the best value
are advanced.

15. Stronger network planning

16. Stronger network planning

17. Recommendations
1. Expand MTC’s authority to act as the region’s transit
network planner.
2. Develop a long-term strategic plan for a seamless network of
transit and managed highway lanes to guide capital investments.
3. Establish a stage gate process to determine project
readiness.
4. Rigorously evaluate the project business case and
deliverability options, especially before making financial and
political commitments.
5. Establish integrated project management teams.

18. Big Idea #2: Expand and centralize
project procurement and delivery
expertise to drive public sector
excellence for the delivery of the
region’s most significant transit
projects

19. Recommendations
6. Establish Infrastructure Bay Area, a project delivery entity
responsible for driving public sector excellence for the
delivery of the region’s most significant transit projects.

20. Infrastructure Bay Area’s Role

21. Big Idea #3: Remove regulatory
obstacles that add undue delay,
cost and uncertainty.

22. Recommendations
9. Establish a statewide certification process for major transit
projects over $1 billion to reduce uncertainty and delay.
10. Give statutory exemptions to bus rapid transit, bicycle
enhancement projects and pedestrian improvements.

23. The Good News

24. Key Regional Efforts
● MTC Major Project Advancement Policy
○ Late 2022/ Early 2023 Commission Approval (Policy/ Risk Management)
○ SPUR program: September 12, 2022
● Regional Rail Study
○ Concluding this fall
○ SPUR program: November 10, 2022
● Connected Network Plan
○ Upcoming