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2/6/2012 11:34 AM   Decision Making/ Ali Fahad   1
Presenter

                    Ali Fahad

                    2011-ME-337

2/6/2012 11:34 AM     Decision Making/ Ali Fahad   2
Decision Making
                    Thoughts, Ideas and Practice
2/6/2012 11:34 AM            Decision Making/ Ali Fahad   3
Decision

   • A decision is the selection between possible
     actions. A choice is the selection between two
     or more objects.
   • A choice made between alternative courses
     of action in a situation of uncertainty.




2/6/2012 11:34 AM   Decision Making/ Ali Fahad   4
Definition
• Decision making can be regarded as the
  mental processes (cognitive process) resulting
  in the selection of a course of action among
  several alternative scenarios. Every decision
  making process produces a final choice.
• An Action with an intention of producing
  favorable outcome.


2/6/2012 11:34 AM    Decision Making/ Ali Fahad   5
Description

               • Every body in life has to make some decisions
                 in order to reach some conclusion.
               • Decision exerts lasting effects on our life.
               • Buy a car or buy a home.
               • If you are in charge then decision making is
                 more important for you.



2/6/2012 11:34 AM           Decision Making/ Ali Fahad       6
2/6/2012 11:34 AM   Decision Making/ Ali Fahad   7
1) Define the problem
      • Define the real problem, issue, concern or
        decision to be made.
      • What are you deciding and why?
      • Don’t trust what is visible.
      • Find out what's below the water line.
      • Spending time at this stage will prevent the
        problem from reoccurring in the future.



2/6/2012 11:34 AM         Decision Making/ Ali Fahad   8
2) Look at the causes of
              Problems and defining
                    objectives
• It's amazing how much you don't know about what
  you don't know. Therefore, in this phase, it's critical
  to get input from other people who notice the
  problem and who are effected by it.
• Write down what your opinions and what you've
  heard from others.
• Write down a description of the cause of the
  problem and in terms of what is happening, where,
  when, how, with whom and why.

2/6/2012 11:34 AM      Decision Making/ Ali Fahad           9
3) Identifying Alternatives
• Once objectives are specified next step is to generate
  alternatives.
• Generate maximum alternatives.
• Be creative and positive.
• Ask "what if" questions.
Methods for developing alternatives:
• Brainstorming is collecting as many ideas as possible,
  then screening them to find the best idea.


2/6/2012 11:34 AM           Decision Making/ Ali Fahad   10
4) Evaluating Alternatives
When selecting the best approach, consider:
• Which approach is the most likely to solve the
  problem for the long term?
• Which approach is the most realistic to accomplish
  for now? Do you have the resources? Are they
  affordable? Do you have enough time to implement
  the approach?
• What is the extent of risk associated with each
  alternative?

2/6/2012 11:34 AM    Decision Making/ Ali Fahad        11
5) Plan the Implementation
 • Carefully consider "What will the situation look like
   when the problem is solved?"

 • What steps should be taken to implement the best
   alternative to solving the problem?

 • How will you know if the steps are being followed or
   not? (these are your indicators of the success of your
   plan)

2/6/2012 11:34 AM      Decision Making/ Ali Fahad          12
5) Plan the Implementation(Contd…)
            How much time will you need to implement the
            solution? Write a schedule that includes the start
            and stop times, and when you expect to see
            certain indicators of success.
            Write down the answers to the above questions
            and consider this as your action plan.
            Communicate the plan to those who will involved
            in implementing it and, at least, to your
            immediate supervisor.


2/6/2012 11:34 AM           Decision Making/ Ali Fahad      13
6) Monitor the Implementation of
                    Plan
Monitor the indicators of success:
• Are you seeing what you would expect from the
  indicators?
• Will the plan be done according to schedule?
• If the plan is not being followed as expected, then
  consider: Was the plan realistic? Are there sufficient
  resources to accomplish the plan on schedule?
  Should more priority be placed on various aspects of
  the plan? Should the plan be changed?

2/6/2012 11:34 AM     Decision Making/ Ali Fahad       14
7) Verify the Solution
One of the best ways to verify if a problem has been
solved or not is to resume normal operations in the
organization. Still, you should consider:
• What changes should be made to avoid this type of
  problem in the future? Consider changes to policies
  and procedures, training, etc.
• Lastly, consider "What did you learn from this
  problem solving?" Consider new knowledge,
  understanding and/or skills.

2/6/2012 11:34 AM          Decision Making/ Ali Fahad   15
DMS
• Decision-making software: DMS is based on multi-criteria decision analysis (MCDA)
  and its varieties such as Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP), analytic network process
  (ANP — extension of AHP), PROMETHEE, multi-attribute value theory (MAVT),
  multi-attribute utility theory (MAUT), multi-attribute global inference of quality
  (MAGIQ), potentially all pairwise rankings of all possible alternatives (PAPRIKA).

1.   Decide IT
2.   Decision Labs
3.   DPL
4.   Logical Decision
5.   1000 Minds
6.   Analytica
     2/6/2012 11:34 AM            Decision Making/ Ali Fahad                    16
2/6/2012 11:34 AM   Decision Making/ Ali Fahad   17

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Decision Making by AliFahad

  • 1. 2/6/2012 11:34 AM Decision Making/ Ali Fahad 1
  • 2. Presenter Ali Fahad 2011-ME-337 2/6/2012 11:34 AM Decision Making/ Ali Fahad 2
  • 3. Decision Making Thoughts, Ideas and Practice 2/6/2012 11:34 AM Decision Making/ Ali Fahad 3
  • 4. Decision • A decision is the selection between possible actions. A choice is the selection between two or more objects. • A choice made between alternative courses of action in a situation of uncertainty. 2/6/2012 11:34 AM Decision Making/ Ali Fahad 4
  • 5. Definition • Decision making can be regarded as the mental processes (cognitive process) resulting in the selection of a course of action among several alternative scenarios. Every decision making process produces a final choice. • An Action with an intention of producing favorable outcome. 2/6/2012 11:34 AM Decision Making/ Ali Fahad 5
  • 6. Description • Every body in life has to make some decisions in order to reach some conclusion. • Decision exerts lasting effects on our life. • Buy a car or buy a home. • If you are in charge then decision making is more important for you. 2/6/2012 11:34 AM Decision Making/ Ali Fahad 6
  • 7. 2/6/2012 11:34 AM Decision Making/ Ali Fahad 7
  • 8. 1) Define the problem • Define the real problem, issue, concern or decision to be made. • What are you deciding and why? • Don’t trust what is visible. • Find out what's below the water line. • Spending time at this stage will prevent the problem from reoccurring in the future. 2/6/2012 11:34 AM Decision Making/ Ali Fahad 8
  • 9. 2) Look at the causes of Problems and defining objectives • It's amazing how much you don't know about what you don't know. Therefore, in this phase, it's critical to get input from other people who notice the problem and who are effected by it. • Write down what your opinions and what you've heard from others. • Write down a description of the cause of the problem and in terms of what is happening, where, when, how, with whom and why. 2/6/2012 11:34 AM Decision Making/ Ali Fahad 9
  • 10. 3) Identifying Alternatives • Once objectives are specified next step is to generate alternatives. • Generate maximum alternatives. • Be creative and positive. • Ask "what if" questions. Methods for developing alternatives: • Brainstorming is collecting as many ideas as possible, then screening them to find the best idea. 2/6/2012 11:34 AM Decision Making/ Ali Fahad 10
  • 11. 4) Evaluating Alternatives When selecting the best approach, consider: • Which approach is the most likely to solve the problem for the long term? • Which approach is the most realistic to accomplish for now? Do you have the resources? Are they affordable? Do you have enough time to implement the approach? • What is the extent of risk associated with each alternative? 2/6/2012 11:34 AM Decision Making/ Ali Fahad 11
  • 12. 5) Plan the Implementation • Carefully consider "What will the situation look like when the problem is solved?" • What steps should be taken to implement the best alternative to solving the problem? • How will you know if the steps are being followed or not? (these are your indicators of the success of your plan) 2/6/2012 11:34 AM Decision Making/ Ali Fahad 12
  • 13. 5) Plan the Implementation(Contd…) How much time will you need to implement the solution? Write a schedule that includes the start and stop times, and when you expect to see certain indicators of success. Write down the answers to the above questions and consider this as your action plan. Communicate the plan to those who will involved in implementing it and, at least, to your immediate supervisor. 2/6/2012 11:34 AM Decision Making/ Ali Fahad 13
  • 14. 6) Monitor the Implementation of Plan Monitor the indicators of success: • Are you seeing what you would expect from the indicators? • Will the plan be done according to schedule? • If the plan is not being followed as expected, then consider: Was the plan realistic? Are there sufficient resources to accomplish the plan on schedule? Should more priority be placed on various aspects of the plan? Should the plan be changed? 2/6/2012 11:34 AM Decision Making/ Ali Fahad 14
  • 15. 7) Verify the Solution One of the best ways to verify if a problem has been solved or not is to resume normal operations in the organization. Still, you should consider: • What changes should be made to avoid this type of problem in the future? Consider changes to policies and procedures, training, etc. • Lastly, consider "What did you learn from this problem solving?" Consider new knowledge, understanding and/or skills. 2/6/2012 11:34 AM Decision Making/ Ali Fahad 15
  • 16. DMS • Decision-making software: DMS is based on multi-criteria decision analysis (MCDA) and its varieties such as Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP), analytic network process (ANP — extension of AHP), PROMETHEE, multi-attribute value theory (MAVT), multi-attribute utility theory (MAUT), multi-attribute global inference of quality (MAGIQ), potentially all pairwise rankings of all possible alternatives (PAPRIKA). 1. Decide IT 2. Decision Labs 3. DPL 4. Logical Decision 5. 1000 Minds 6. Analytica 2/6/2012 11:34 AM Decision Making/ Ali Fahad 16
  • 17. 2/6/2012 11:34 AM Decision Making/ Ali Fahad 17