This document summarizes the findings of Amárach Research's monthly Economic Recovery Index survey from April 2009 to May 2017. Key points: - The Economic Recovery Index, which measures the stage of economic recovery, has plateaued in the past 18 months at around 43-44 after steadily increasing from a low of 16 in 2009. - Consumer sentiment around financial comfort and optimism has remained strong in recent months, though spending sentiment has also plateaued. - Interest in borrowing money from banks has increased compared to a year ago, while debt repayment remains a high priority. - Levels of stress, anger, and worry reported by consumers have fallen to all-time lows, but happiness is trending

1. 1Economic Recovery Index
Economic Recovery Index
An Amárach Research Briefing
May 2017

2. 2Economic Recovery Index
Summer Reflections
Our May report confirms a trend we have
noticed since late 2015/early 2016 – both
economic sentiment and spending sentiment
have levelled off and are now at a plateau.
That said, as we track our Economic
Recovery Index in Q2 2017 there are good
signs of resilience and even buoyancy on
some measures, for example in relation to
‘buying Irish’.
The emotional toll of recent years has seen
a weakening in positive emotions but also
negative emotions: perhaps the
psychological impact of the recession is felt
at a lag?

3. 3Economic Recovery Index
The Emotional Recovery
We have been reporting our monthly
Economic Recovery Index since April 2009.
We set out eight years ago to assess the
psychological impact of the recession and to
chart our ‘emotional progress’ towards
recovery alongside our ‘economic progress’.
This report summarises our Economic
Recovery Index results from April 2009
to May 2017.
The most recent fieldwork was conducted
during 16th to 22nd May 2017 inclusive.
See how bad it was some eight years ago:
https://www.slideshare.net/amarach/the-economic-recovery-index-july-results-2009

4. Economic Recovery Index

5. 5Economic Recovery Index
Using the answers to the question on ‘stages of recovery’ we have created the Economic
Recovery Index, which ranges from 0 to 100 (0 = deep recession; 100 = back to peak).
The Economic Recovery Index
Source: Amárach Research, May 2017
Our Economic Recovery Index has plateaued in past 18 months

6. 6Economic Recovery Index
ERI Summary Table
Which one statement ‘best describes the economic situation in Ireland right now’?
% choosing each statement:
%
The economic
situation in
Ireland is
getting worse
The economic
situation is bad
but has
stabilized
The economic
situation is bad
but showing a
few signs of
improvement
The economic
situation is
getting better
and showing
clear signs of
improvement
The economic
situation is
good and
almost fully
recovered
Economic
Recovery
Index
May-09 57 24 18 1 0 16.0
May-10 36 35 27 2 0 23.8
May-11 40 33 24 2 1 22.1
May-12 48 26 24 2 0 20.2
May-13 44 29 24 2 1 21.3
May-14 24 32 36 8 0 32.4
May-15 14 34 34 17 1 39.4
May-16 12 29 33 24 2 43.9
Apr-17 14 24 35 24 3 44.6
May-17 15 27 31 24 3 43.3
We’re an awful lot more bullish than eight years ago, though not much than last year

7. Consumer Impact

8. 8Economic Recovery Index
Recession, Resilience & Recovery
We started calling our Index the ‘Recovery
Index’ back in April 2009
Over these past eight years we have tracked
the highs and lows (and very lows) in terms of
the mood of the nation and the impact on
consumer spending, borrowing and saving
intentions.
We’ve seen remarkable resilience on the part
of the Irish people when it comes to ‘getting
on’ with their lives, despite macro-economic
uncertainties.
In this section we look at some of the key
indicators when it comes to consumer
spending and saving intentions.

9. 9Economic Recovery Index
Consumer Sentiment Summary Table I
% agree strongly/slightly with selected statements:
%
Ireland will be
through the worst
of the recession
in 12 months
time
I feel I am
financially
comfortable
enough to make
it through the
recession
I am optimistic in
spite of the
current economic
situation
Right now it seems
like the recession is
affecting other
people more than it
is affecting me
May-09 41 48 59 62
May-10 40 44 53 51
May-11 28 40 53 50
May-12 25 38 47 45
May-13 25 39 45 46
May-14 38 39 49 45
May-15 39 43 52 41
May-16 43 47 55 50
Apr-17 33 44 53 40
May-17 35 43 53 39
Optimism has remained strong in the past few months

10. 10Economic Recovery Index
Consumer Sentiment Summary Table II
% agree strongly/slightly with selected statements:
%
I am more relaxed
about spending
money than I was a
few months ago
I am saving a lot
more than before
because of the
recession
My main financial
priority is to pay off
my debts as quickly
as possible
I would be happy
to borrow money
from a bank if I
need to
May-09 15
May-10 19 26 61 28
May-11 17 26 61 26
May-12 18 27 56 27
May-13 18 24 56 24
May-14 23 23 59 25
May-15 27 24 51 24
May-16 32 30 51 29
Apr-17 32 28 57 37
May-17 28 35 52 33
Consumer borrowing intentions are well up compared to a year ago

11. 11Economic Recovery Index
Spending sentiment has levelled off along with economic sentiment
Spending Slowdown
The recovery in spending sentiment has also plateaued in the past 18 months:

12. Mood of the Nation

13. 13Economic Recovery Index
The Real Mood of the Nation
When we started measuring and reporting the
Economic Recovery Index we wanted it to be
more than just another ‘confidence index’.
We therefore set out to measure the full
spectrum of emotions experienced by Irish
consumers – positive as well as negative ones
– in order to provide a unique insight into the
real ‘mood’ of the nation.
Lately some interesting but rather strange
things have emerged: our levels of stress
and anger have fallen to their lowest levels
ever, but our level of happiness is trending
downwards as well, despite the recovery.
The following charts show the trends to May
2017:

14. 14Economic Recovery Index
The Mood of the Nation – I
Did you experience any of these feelings a lot of the day yesterday?
% saying Yes: April 2009 to May 2017
Source: Amárach Research, May 2017
20%
25%
30%
35%
40%
45%
50%
55%
60%
65%
Apr'09
May
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sept
Oct
Nov
Dec
Jan'10
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
June
July
Aug
Sept
Oct
Nov
Dec
Jan'11
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
June
July
Aug
Sept
Oct
Nov
Dec
Jan'12
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
June
July
Aug
Sept
Oct
Nov
Dec
Jan'13
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
June
July
Aug
Sept
Oct
Nov
Dec
Jan'14
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
June
July
Aug
Sept
Oct
Nov
Dec
Jan'15
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
June
July
Aug
Sept
Oct
Nov
Dec
Jan'16
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
Jun
July
Aug
Sept
Oct
Nov
Dec
Jan'17
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
Enjoyment Happiness Stress Worry

15. 15Economic Recovery Index
The Mood of the Nation – II
Did you experience any of these feelings a lot of the day yesterday?
% saying Yes: April 2009 to May 2017
Source: Amárach Research, May 2017
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
40%
Apr'09
May
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sept
Oct
Nov
Dec
Jan'10
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
June
July
Aug
Sept
Oct
Nov
Dec
Jan'11
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
June
July
Aug
Sept
Oct
Nov
Dec
Jan'12
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
June
July
Aug
Sept
Oct
Nov
Dec
Jan'13
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
June
July
Aug
Sept
Oct
Nov
Dec
Jan'14
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
June
July
Aug
Sept
Oct
Nov
Dec
Jan'15
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
June
July
Aug
Sept
Oct
Nov
Dec
Jan'16
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
Jun
July
Aug
Sept
Oct
Nov
Dec
Jan'17
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
Anxiety Sadness Pain Anger

16. Amárach Outlook

17. 19Economic Recovery Index
Get Planning
We’ll keep tracking consumer progress into
2017 – and we’ll keep you posted about
Ireland’s consumer needs.
We hope you find this edition of the
Economic Recovery Index helpful and
please do get in contact if you want to
discuss how it can be applied to your brand
planning requirements in 2017 and beyond.
With mid-year around the corner there’s
lots to be doing as 2017 gathers
momentum.
For more on the ERI (including 8 years worth of data) see:
http://www.amarach.com/resources/economic-recovery-index.htm

18. 20Economic Recovery Index
PlanR Database
We survey 1,000 adults every month to create the Economic Recovery Index.
We also track dozens of data series relating to customer experience, spending
levels, and switching intentions also as part of the same survey
You can view the full list (as well as
a free dashboard) here:
Try out the free version for a one
week trial period.
http://getplanr.com/

19. Trends Report
e. info@amarach.com
t. 01 410 5200
w. www.amarach.com
b. www.amarach.com/blog
tw. twitter.com/AmarachResearch
s. slideshare.net/amarach/