Steel Stockholding In Poland

Steel Stockholding in Poland October 2008

STEEL STOCKHOLDING IN POLAND AGENDA ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]

STEEL STOCKHOLDING IN POLAND THE STEEL INDUSTRY

THE INDUSTRY POLISH STEEL MARKET - Overview ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],† : Source: IISI † † : Source: Population Reference Bureau, mid-2006 estimates

THE INDUSTRY POLISH STEEL MARKET - Statistics † † :Net production includes correction for double-counting of downstream use. Tube data includes closed hollow sections. For more detailed 2006 or later market appraisal, contact MCI [see page 14] Consumption CAGR 1997-2006 amounted to ~6% per annum

THE INDUSTRY POLISH STEEL MARKET – Geography of demand ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],† :Stockholder purchases e.g. in Slask sold on to an end-user e.g. in Malopole are thus reflected above as demand in Malopole

THE INDUSTRY POLISH STEEL MARKET – Routes to market Imported production 5396 kt Analysis is shown for full year 2006 data Domestic production 4875 kt Intermediaries 1875 kt Direct 3000 kt Intermediaries 2167 kt † Direct 3229 kt Total finished steel purchases in Polish marketplace ~10271 kt of which ~4042 kt pass through intermediaries † :Of this volume, ~1598 kt was flat products, ~311 kt was long and ~258 kt was tube. Semis route to market (mostly MSP Dabrowa Gornicza) is almost completely 100% direct.

STEEL STOCKHOLDING IN POLAND SSC SECTOR

SSC SECTOR OVERVIEW - Industry structure † ,[object Object],[object Object],Tier 1: Top 5 Tier 2: Next 10 Tier 3: Other ~85 Total: ~100 firms with sales ~4 mt/yr Avg: ~9 kt/yr Avg: 140 kt/yr Avg: 325 kt/yr Sales: 1mt Sales: 1.4 mt Sales: 1.6 mt † : All figures are MCI estimates. In terms of approx. number of locations, broad MCI assessment is that Tier 1 firms have ~80 depots [Grupa Polska Stal dominating with ~44], Tier 2 firms have ~70 depots [incl Stalexport, Stalprodukt with 15 each] and Tier 3 firms ~100 depots. †† : Figures of 100 and 250 are estimates covering PUDS member firms only. A handful of non-PUDS members may also exist, with another ~10 depots (possibly more) – these other firms are however excluded from analysis above.

SSC SECTOR OVERVIEW - Top Players † † : Source: PUDS 2006 rankings [Polska Unia Dystrybutorow Stali; www.puds.pl ]. Note that estimates above may contain some degree of double counting (possibly ~5-10% or even more in the case of Grupa Polska Stal) because of inter-company sales and reprocessing of processed material. Figures above also include exports where these arise. By steel tonnage

SSC SECTOR GROWTH PROSPECTS – Market demand ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],MCI predict Polish SSC sector growth of ~4% per annum to 2012 † : This is probably a conservative estimate. EU structural funds driving construction sector growth, plus continuing foreign investment in steel consuming sectors / applications could means much higher steel demand in the medium term

SSC SECTOR COMPETITION – Recent events summary ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],Stockholder Service Centre Stockholder + From competition back to oligopoly? Growing competition?

SSC SECTOR WEAKNESSES – MCI appraisal ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],These matters potentially define quite a strong opportunity for industry investors

SSC SECTOR SOME IDEAS … ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],Please contact: Andrzej M Kotas, Managing Director, MCI Email: [email_address] Mobile: +44 (0) 775 149 0885

SSC SECTOR SOME IDEAS … For more steel information visit us: http:// www.steelonthenet.com

Steel Stockholding In Poland

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Steel Stockholding In Poland