Amulya Tuladhar's Reconstruction of Nepal's Population from 2011 census through first census of 1911, scholarly estimate of Prithvi Narayan Shah time population to First "Nepali Hominid" found 1.5 million years ago fossils and artefacts in Nawalparasi, Dang and Mahottari
3. What was Nepal’s population 100 years ago?
5.6 million
POPULATION OF NEPAL
4. What was Nepal’s population before that?
Answer:
We do not know, for sure.
No census then.
Indirect methods.
POPULATION OF NEPAL
5. Can we reconstruct Nepal’s population,
indirectly,…when Prithvi Narayan Shah created
modern Nepal…. in 1768?
Yes… done by Mark Poffenberger for his PhD in
Berkeley, entitled, “Patterns of Change in the
Himalayas”.
POPULATION OF NEPAL
7. How to figure out Nepal’s population before Prithvi
Narayan’s time?
What was the growth rate of Nepal’s population from
Prithvi Narayan’s time (~1750) to first census of 1911,
or 161 yrs?
Answer = 0.38% per year (Harka Gurung, 1971)
POPULATION OF NEPAL
8. Question:
Can we assume that Nepal’s population
was growing at 0.38% per year before
Prithvi Narayan’s time in 1750?
POPULATION OF NEPAL
10. What was the world’s population growing at that
time… 1800-1920?
Answer = 0.57% per year
What was the world’s population growing at that
time… 1500-1800?
Answer = 0.23% per year
POPULATION OF NEPAL
11. Nepal 1750-1911 0.38%
World 1800-1920 0.57%
World 1500-1800 0.23%
Conclusion: World population growth rate was nearly
half for period of 300 years preceding 1800.
POPULATION OF NEPAL
12. Period of rapid population growth Began 1750
From 1750 to 1900 Average annual rate of growth: ~0.5%
From 1900 to 1950 Average annual rate of growth: ~0.8%
From 1950 to 2000 Average annual rate of growth: ~1.7%
Reasons for rapid growth
Advances in medicine
Advances in nutrition
GEOMETRIC GROWTH：
HUMAN POPULATION GROWTH
13. In absence of solid data on Nepal, one choice is
to assume that Nepal’s population growth rate for
300 years before 1750 was nearly half that of
1750-1911.. I.e.
For 1750-1911 = 0.38 %
1450-1750 = 0.19 % (Half of 0.38%) ?
POPULATION OF NEPAL
15. Prior to agriculture and domestication of animals
(~10,000 B.C.)
Average annual rate of growth: ~0.0001%
After the establishment of agriculture
300 million people by 1 A.D.
800 million by 1750
Average annual rate of growth: ~0.1%
GEOMETRIC GROWTH：
HUMAN POPULATION GROWTH
16. For 1750-1911 = 0.38 %
1450-1750 = 0.19 % (Half of 0.38%) ?
Better take the average trend for broader time period, e.g.
Industrial Era 1750-2012 = 0.5-1.7%
Agricultural Era 10,000 BC-1750 = 0.1%
Stone Age, 2-3 millions yrs ago, – 10,000 BC = 0.0001%
POPULATION OF NEPAL
17. Strategy for Population Reconstruction:
Reduce population growth rate
systematically to achieve an average of 0.1%
for Agricultural Era and 0.0001% for Stone
Age unless better estimates are available.
POPULATION OF NEPAL
18. Systematic Population Growth Rate Reduction
0.38%
0.35%
0.30%
0.25%
0.20%
0.15%
0.10%
0.05%
0.01%
0.001%
0.0001%
POPULATION OF NEPAL
19. Next:
Use the systematically reduced population growth
rates to estimate the time to HALF the
population, with the formula:
½ = 72/r, where “r” = population change rate
POPULATION OF NEPAL
20. ½ = 72/r, where “r” = population change rate
r Half Time in
years
Date Reduction
(1750 Minus -190 yr
etc…)
0.38% 190 1560 AD
0.35% 205 1355 AD
0.30% 240 1115 AD
0.25% 288 827 AD
0.20% 360 467 AD
0.15% 480 13 BC
0.10% 720 733 BC
0.05% 1440 2173 BC
0.01% 7200 9373 BC
0.001% 72000 81373 BC
0.0001% 720000 801373 BC
0.0001% 720000 1521373 BC
28. Nepal has increased its population from 1,270 to
26,602,308 in 2011, from 1.45 million years ago when
Homo erectus, the hand axe maker that paleontologist
Gudrun Corvinus discovered in Dandi River in
Nawalparasi in 1980s to Homo sapiens, the modern man
who has developed Agricultural and Industrial
Revolution in the world.
CONCLUSION
29. The population density of Nepalese has
increased from:
0.009 people per km2,
1.45 million years ago
to
181/km2 in 2011
CONCLUSION
